First Predictions: Best Supporting Actress
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 6:45PM by Nathaniel R
Can Daisy & Esmé pull an Emma & Kate in the new version of SENSE & SENSIBILITY?
With such a banner Best Supporting Actress season in the rearview mirror, how can the next race even dream of topping it? Who will be our next Madigan... our Wunmi or Teyana? Will we get another Inga & Elle twofer? Sight unseen the films of 2026 don't appear to be offering us a wealth of contenders. And yet, who can really know in the spring or summertime? Promos and buzz and rumors of greatness for forthcoming films almost always center around movie star leads and auteurs. Supporting characters, and the actors who play them, only (usually) turn heads / gather momentum during actual screenings and the reviews / media discourse that follows. Which is a long way of saying I don't feel even remotely confident in this first round of Oscar predictions for the 99th Oscars.
Consider the following possibilities...
...Sandra Hüller in Project Hail Mary. She was the first supporting actress to make a mark this year but will Project Hail Mary connect with the acting branch when it isn't typical dramatics and they often stiff actors in genre blockbusters? Hüller will be high profile this year given three films (also Rose & Fatherland) which will certainly help her case. You can say the same two things about Anne Hathaway's prospects for The Odyssey. Hathaway will be even more ubiquitous with FIVE motion pictures in 2026: The End of Oak Street, The Devil Wears Prada 2, Mother Mary, Verity, and The Odyssey. I couldn't be happier that she's back but I always worry about overexposure / audience backlash when too many films with the same star are released in rapid succession. Two movies in a single year almost always helps Oscar campaigns but beyond that it's riskier.
By all accounts Penélope Cruz is hugely memorable in a small role in THE BLACK BALL
At Cannes the press raved about Penélope Cruz in The Black Ball but it's increasingly hard to land nominations for very small roles in this category that prefers co-leads or (even if actually supporting) a lot of screen time, preferrably with multiple Big Moments. Will it help that Cruz also looks to be the MVP in The Invite?
Time will tell whether critics and audiences and voters embrace the new Sense & Sensibility but if they do we have to consider that Esme Creed-Miles will be a real threat for Best Supporting Actress in the role of "Kate Winslet's First Nomination"... excuse me "Marianne Dashwood". If Amy Madigan's recent against-the-odds win loosens up the acting branch to embrace genre performances (hey we can dream), wouldn't Gillian Anderson be a neat pick if the reviews for her Norma Desmond-esque work in Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma are actually to be believed. Will Elizabeth Debicki ever get her nomination role (she's been worthy twice already!) and will that be The Adventures of Cliff Booth? What kind of role is Adele playing in Cry to Heaven and can she act?
That's just seven of the many women we're wondering about though maybe none of them will be nominated!
Will we get two actresses nominated from the same film? Parker Posey is currently in the exact right moment of her career if her role in Wild Horse Nine is more than a fun cameo and if Mariana di Girolma is also stellar and the film is popular enough maybe we'll get a twofer? Speaking of twofers, what kind of roles will the inarguably formidable Lesley Manville and Frances McDormand be playing in Jack of Spades?
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Reader Comments (1)
Nathaniel, I’m always so delighted at your lists of great actresses. I love to see their artistry appreciated. I like all the actresses in this long list, how could I not?
The ones that I can see so far as a good match of artist and role are:
Penelope Cruz, The Invite
Sandra Huller, Project Hail Mary
Gillian Anderson, Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
For others, there was some talk about Alison Oliver in Wuthering Heights, which is a very distinctive role that she dives into whole heartedly.
For under-considered comedy, the trailer for Focker-in-Law, surprised me, with Ariana Grande looking very good (I know).
And I get so used to Lupita Nyong’o looking beautiful in photos, that I forget until I see her onscreen, how luminous she is, how intelligent, how her characters are believable, well thought out, indelible.