First Predictions: Best Supporting Actress
Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 6:45PM by Nathaniel R
Can Daisy & Esmé pull an Emma & Kate in the new version of SENSE & SENSIBILITY?
With such a banner Best Supporting Actress season in the rearview mirror, how can the next race even dream of topping it? Who will be our next Madigan... our Wunmi or Teyana? Will we get another Inga & Elle twofer? Sight unseen the films of 2026 don't appear to be offering us a wealth of contenders. And yet, who can really know in the spring or summertime? Promos and buzz and rumors of greatness for forthcoming films almost always center around movie star leads and auteurs. Supporting characters, and the actors who play them, only (usually) turn heads / gather momentum during actual screenings and the reviews / media discourse that follows. Which is a long way of saying I don't feel even remotely confident in this first round of Oscar predictions for the 99th Oscars.
Consider the following possibilities...
...Sandra Hüller in Project Hail Mary. She was the first supporting actress to make a mark this year but will Project Hail Mary connect with the acting branch when it isn't typical dramatics and they often stiff actors in genre blockbusters? Hüller will be high profile this year given three films (also Rose & Fatherland) which will certainly help her case. You can say the same two things about Anne Hathaway's prospects for The Odyssey. Hathaway will be even more ubiquitous with FIVE motion pictures in 2026: The End of Oak Street, The Devil Wears Prada 2, Mother Mary, Verity, and The Odyssey. I couldn't be happier that she's back but I always worry about overexposure / audience backlash when too many films with the same star are released in rapid succession. Two movies in a single year almost always helps Oscar campaigns but beyond that it's riskier.
By all accounts Penélope Cruz is hugely memorable in a small role in THE BLACK BALL
At Cannes the press raved about Penélope Cruz in The Black Ball but it's increasingly hard to land nominations for very small roles in this category that prefers co-leads or (even if actually supporting) a lot of screen time, preferrably with multiple Big Moments. Will it help that Cruz also looks to be the MVP in The Invite?
Time will tell whether critics and audiences and voters embrace the new Sense & Sensibility but if they do we have to consider that Esme Creed-Miles will be a real threat for Best Supporting Actress in the role of "Kate Winslet's First Nomination"... excuse me "Marianne Dashwood". If Amy Madigan's recent against-the-odds win loosens up the acting branch to embrace genre performances (hey we can dream), wouldn't Gillian Anderson be a neat pick if the reviews for her Norma Desmond-esque work in Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma are actually to be believed. Will Elizabeth Debicki ever get her nomination role (she's been worthy twice already!) and will that be The Adventures of Cliff Booth? What kind of role is Adele playing in Cry to Heaven and can she act?
That's just seven of the many women we're wondering about though maybe none of them will be nominated!
Will we get two actresses nominated from the same film? Parker Posey is currently in the exact right moment of her career if her role in Wild Horse Nine is more than a fun cameo and if Mariana di Girolma is also stellar and the film is popular enough maybe we'll get a twofer? Speaking of twofers, what kind of roles will the inarguably formidable Lesley Manville and Frances McDormand be playing in Jack of Spades?
SEE THE OSCAR CHARTS (THUS FAR)
Reader Comments (22)
Nathaniel, I’m always so delighted at your lists of great actresses. I love to see their artistry appreciated. I like all the actresses in this long list, how could I not?
The ones that I can see so far as a good match of artist and role are:
Penelope Cruz, The Invite
Sandra Huller, Project Hail Mary
Gillian Anderson, Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
For others, there was some talk about Alison Oliver in Wuthering Heights, which is a very distinctive role that she dives into whole heartedly.
For under-considered comedy, the trailer for Focker-in-Law, surprised me, with Ariana Grande looking very good (I know).
And I get so used to Lupita Nyong’o looking beautiful in photos, that I forget until I see her onscreen, how luminous she is, how intelligent, how her characters are believable, well thought out, indelible.
I've read a few reviews that say Scarlett Johansson's screentime is limited, so she'll probably be in supporting - and might even win
(BTW, the link to your predictions is broken, it goes to last year's race - you have to click on Supporting Actor and then supporting actress)
I love Elizabeth Debicki, but whats the 2nd time she's been worthy? I can only think of Widows.
There’s some social media buzz that Samantha Morton may be the supporting actress standout from The Odyssey
It’s always exciting to see the awards conversation start this early. A YouTube clip generator is also a great way to create short highlight videos from interviews and award discussions for quick updates.
The void of interesting Best Supporting Actress contenders and the relative brevity of screen time of Miranda Priestly in The Devil Wears Prada 2 begs the question if Meryl Streep may be promoted for a Supporting Actress nomination.
I have no clue about this race though one of The Odyssey woman seem possible but Nolan has never been great with female performances,they are always relegated to the sides of great men,maybe more a Damon showcase.
Is it possible for anyone from S&S to top the sublime Emma version and especially Kate in it.
I'm not buying this overdue narrative I don't even remember Debicki in Widows,I do remember Jacki Weaver though.
Parker Posey could be this years female equivalant of Sam Rockwell,she was the 90's indie actress.
Yes to Lesley Manville who should have at least 2 nominations by now 3 if you enjoyed her like I did in Queer.
For Jack of Spades has McDormand confirmed she is supporting? I've seen people predict her in both categories. Same for Kirsten Dunst for Entertainment Industry. I really hope Dunst doesn't end up a one and done nomination but category confusion needs to be cleared up.
Any chance for Inde Navarrette in Obsession? They’re trying to push her in supporting
No, no, no, no, no, no, don’t do that! Sandra Huller should be nominated for Rose in leading!
Great overview—it's always interesting how supporting performances emerge as awards contenders only after audiences and critics actually see the films. It'll be fun to see which unexpected performances break through this season. I also came across this useful resource on wendys menu 2026 while browsing recently.
OK so you definitely did not see Josephine at Sundance or pay much attention to the reviews - Mason Reeves is the lead. The leadiest lead, She's the title character, the viewpoint character, has the most screentime, the clearest character arc - there is literally no argument for her being supporting except that category fraud is a thing with child actors sometimes. And if you're thinking about that possible category fraud, then I think the more likely category fraud consideration would be frauding Inde Navarrette in Obsession into a supporting nomination (she is not the viewpoint character and has a lot less screentime than Michael Johnston, so you COULD make the case she's "supporting" despite being a second lead).
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I haven't seen The Invite yet, but if Penelope Cruz is as good in it as I'm hearing, it feels like the kind of role that could definitely get attention since I suspect she has a lot more screentime than she does in La Bola Negra.
And sight unseen, I'm wondering if Samantha Morton could get in as Circe in The Odyssey. An incredible actress and a fascinating character that feels like it could give her a few REALLY showy moments.
Jamie Lee Curtis is great in Only Living Pickpocket but it's essentially a cameo — one I almost wish people weren't talking about because it was such a delightful surprise at Sundance, I didn't realize she was going to be in it. Think Jane Fonda in Youth.
Actually, Tatiana Maslany (also a one-scene role, but longer and dramatically heavier) gives an incredible performance.
@DK Now you have spoiled it for everyone here.
I don’t think it’s spoilery to say it’s a small role? She’s on the chart so everyone knows she’s in it, if you go in expecting a sizable supporting role you’ll be even more disappointed.
@DK You assume everyone has read the charts and I didn't just the top tiers,I had no idea she was in it .
"Will Elizabeth Debicki ever get her nomination role (she's been worthy twice already!) and will that be The Adventures of Cliff Booth?"
Nathaniel,
That's all I want.
That's all I need.
That's all I'm dreaming of. ❤️
@Ripley that's insane; I think it's fair to assume anyone in this comment section has clicked on the chart. 🤣
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