Box Office Prophecy: Kristen Wiig's Legs

I've been in Boston for my girlfriend's birthday. Yesterday on the last day of the weekend birthday-ing, our group filed into a very crowded house for Bridesmaids. Perfect movie choice for a rainy day after brunch with a group o' friends. Given how consistently the entire theater was LOLing -- including our row -- you'd think the film could've knocked Thor right off the Bifrost.

A Truth: Wiig's Penis Imitation > Thor's Hammer. 

But I guess a great audience response and word of mouth is what second weekends are for. I expect Bridesmaids will have major box office legs and the tiniest of percentage dips next weekend. It's much funnier than The Hangover (2009) to which it's often compared (for plot and especially marketing reasons) and that film, which opened stronger, only dipped 27% and 18% in its 2nd and 3rd weekends going on to a very substantial gross. I'm guessing we see something very similar with Kristen Wiig & Co, at least percentage wise, in the next couple of weekends. I hope The Hangover II doesn't eat into its potential audience in the coming weeks. The wolf pack already had its turn.

The Box Office (Actuals)

01 THOR $34.7 (cumulative $119.4) [review]
02 BRIDESMAIDS new  $26.2
03 FAST FIVE $20.4 (cumulative $169.6)
04 PRIEST new $14.9
05 RIO $8.2 (cumulative $125.2)
06 JUMPING THE BROOM $7.0 (cumulative $25.7)
07 SOMETHING BORROWED $6.8 (cumulative $25.5)
08 WATER FOR ELEPHANTS $4.2 (cumulative $48.5) [review]
09 TYLER PERRY MADEA'S BIG HAPPY FAMILY $2.2 (cumulative $50.2)
10 SOUL SURFER $1.8 (cumulative $39.2)

What did you see this weekend? I'll try to write up Bridesmaids soon. I have a few things to say about it but they feel too entirely jumbled and disparate to make sense of this morning.

Box Office: The Slightly Mighty Thor

Thor discovers he isn't as strong as he looksOnline coverage of weekend box office is often dry, repetitive and facty. We respond to it as we do to sports stats, with curiousity that people care so much. This week is slightly different. Thor's box office take is actually a case study in how flexible numbers are, how perception is everything. FACT: Thor did not break box office records, did less impressive numbers than many summer heroes (if you want a comparison he's slightier mightier than The Incredible Hulk or Fantastic Four but far far weaker than Iron Man -- which no one remembers that people were  nervous about in terms of audience interest until the trailer arrived since history tends to rewrite itself after huge successes -- or Wolverine and such. FACT #2 Just last week, Fast Five was a bigger draw with less of a marketing push in a franchise you'd think would be weakening. Yet many online reports, or at least the headlines, were all about Thor's "super" box office weekend or how it "hammered", "smashed" and "crushed" its competition or somesuch.  LESSON LEARNED: the web roots for superheroes like young children clap for fairies in Peter Pan, in a show of enthusiastic solidarity.

USELESS FACT #3 The theater I saw it in had no more than 20ish people in it. Admittedly it was a morning show and for some reason people don't go to movies in the morning (Why not? Start the day off right!) but still... opening day.

The Box Office (Actuals)

01 THOR new $65.7 [my review]
02 FAST FIVE  $32.4 (cumulative $139.7)
03 JUMPING THE BROOM new $15.2
04 SOMETHING BORROWED new $13.9
05 RIO $8.5 (cumulative $115.2)

The success story of the weekend is Jumping the Broom; it's opening take was more than double its budget! FACT #3 I really wanted to see it given the Loretta Devine / Angela Bassett face off. But then I saw the trailer. Interest dwindled.

In other box office news, the new limited releases had a really difficult time: The Beaver and Last Night failed to find much of an audience despite big stars in the lead roles. If you have big stars who are typically bigger box office shouldn't you risk a wider opening with more advertisements? It seems strange that a movie starring Mel Gibson and Jodie Foster is going to make less than a period piece with no typically bankable names like The Conspirator (which opened much much wider). Kelly Reichardt's Meek's Cutoff, just discussed on the podcast, is also having a rough time. It's up to just $200,000. That's more than Wendy & Lucy (the previous Reichardt/Michelle Williams combo) had made at this point but the per screen average is much lower indicating it will probably not have that earlier film's very sturdy legs despite similarly ecstatic reviews. Wendy & Lucy neared the million dollar mark at the end of its long run.

What did you see over the weekend?

Box Office: Faster and Furiouser

The Fast & Furious franchise turned the box office into a regular demolition derby destroying its competition with over 60% of the top ten dollars. It seems absurd to make the comparison but maybe it's a Bondian franchise, the kind that only grows with time? Tokyo Drift, the only entry without Paul Walker or Vin Diesel in the driver's seat was its only underperformer. Okay so maybe the Bond comparison is a bad one since that series has easily survived cast changes. (Not that Fast Five didn't benefit from the addition of The Rock.

For Fast & Furious: Sixth Gear I think they should race famous vintage movie cars: The Batmobile, Thelma & Louise's Thunderbird convertiable, Bonnie & Clyde's Death Car.  And while we're on the Ian Fleming franchise subject, maybe throw in a musical dream segment starring Chitty Chitty Bang Bang; lead feet with twinkle toes!

The Box Office (Actuals)

01 FAST FIVE new $86.1
02 RIO $14.7 (cumulative $104)
03 MADEA'S BIG HAPPY FAMILY $9.8 (cumulative $40.8)
04 WATER FOR ELEPHANTS $9.3 (cumulative $32.4)
05 PROM new $4.7
06 HOODWINKED TOO! HOOD VS. EVIL new $4.1
07 SOUL SURFER $3.3 (cumulative $33.8)
08 INSIDIOUS $2.6 (cumulative $48.3)
09 HOP $2.6 (cumulative $105.4)
10 SOURCE CODE $2.5 (cumulative $48.8)

Points of Interest:

Brandon Routh is "Dylan Dog"

• HOP proves that when you're holiday-themed, it's really wise to open well before the holiday. (I've never understood this with horror movies that choose to open on Halloween weekend.) Hop did huge box office right up until Easter. Afterwards? A huge 80% drop in attendance despite only losing 10% of its screens. Kill the wabbit kill the wabbit ♪ ♫
• Dylan Dog: Dead of Night opened wide but still coudn't crack the top ten. Ouch.
• Best Per Screen Average: Werner Herzog's Cave of Forgotten Dreams. In 3-D!
• Not every toon opens huge (Hoodwinked!) though it seems the norm (Rio, Rango, etc...)

What did you see this weekend? How many of the Fast & Furious films have you seen?

Box Office: Easter For the Birds

Did you stay at home and color eggs, church it up, socialize, or hit the movies this weekend? Or maybe a little of all four? I did the latter two. I was a bit worried when I walked into an empty theater for Water for Elephants (but it did fill halfway up). Here's the top ten.

Easter Weekend Box Office

01 RIO $26.3 (cumulative $80.8)
The birds have now taken over for the bunny.
02 MADEA'S BIG HAPPY FAMILY new $25.0
03 WATER FOR ELEPHANTS new $16.8
04 HOP $12.1 (cumulative $100.2)
05 SCREAM 4 $7.0 (cumulative $31.0)
06 AFRICAN CATS new $6.0
07 SOUL SURFER $5.4 (cumulative $28.5)
08 HANNA $5.2 (cumulative $31.7)
09 INSIDIOUS $5.2 (cumulative $44.0)
10 SOURCE CODE $5.0 (cumulative $44.6)

Obviously Tyler Perry will be making Madea movies till he's in the grave since people never stop showing up once he puts on those big dresses. The debut for Water for Elephants seems worrisome (truth: we always hope that epic period romances do well since like musicals they seem in short dead-genre supply) but they somehow kept their production costs way down so they'll be fine in the long haul. Movie budgets so rarely make visible sense on screen. This one only costs $38 million despite being a handsome period piece with wild animals and three stars? Meanwhile Black Swan costs half of that and looked downrright spectacular while some movies -- most movies actually -- cost more than $38 and they don't look as expensive. Guess it all depends on who the producers are handing the money to, right?

We don't like to neglect the films in limited release so let's check in on how films that have never been in wide are doing. That top five goes like so.

01 WIN WIN $1.1 (cumulative $6.6)
02 ATLAS SHRUGGED PT. 1 $.8 (cumulative $3.0)
Apparently if you savage this one in a review people get pissed. So given the 6% on Rotten Tomatoes there are a lot of pissed people out there. I totally believe this as my Dad is about as conservative as they come and worships Ayn Rand.
03 JANE EYRE $.7 (cumulative $7.8)
04 OF GODS AND MEN $.1 (cumulative $3.2)
05 I AM $.1 (cumulative $.5)

Sadly both Win Win and Jane Eyre which have been quite well received by arthouse auds probably won't expand that much further since they're both slowing down. One hopes that Jane Eyre will stick around until X-Men: Mutant Babies opens and some brave new Fassbender fans get curious. The highest per screen average went to Canada's Oscar nominated INCENDIES which nabbed $18,000ish from each of its screens. Alas, it was only on three screens.

What did you see?

Box Office Takes Flight

Dave here rounding up the box office while Nat's away thinking about nicer things.

Parrots took over from rabbits at the top of the box office this weekend, although the fact that it still isn't Easter might give that foppish British bunny a boost this week. Or did they bounce him out too early? Rio signals the coming of summer by scooping the biggest opening weekend of the year so far, besting Rango's $38.1 million. Meanwhile, Scream 4 came in a pale second place, not even making half of Rio's total; and Nat will be delighted to learn that Academy Award Winner Helen Hunt's Soul Surfer held steady as others tumbled around it. Maybe Ghostface might be able to take a stab at her as he falls past her next week?

Jesse Eisenberg doesn't usually look so emotional at the movies...

The Box Office (Actuals)

01 RIO new $39.2

02 SCREAM 4 new $19.3

03 HOP $11.2 (cumulative $82.6)

04 SOUL SURFER $7.4 (cumulative $20.0)

05 HANNA $7.3 (cumulative $23.3)

06 ARTHUR $6.9 (cumulative $22.3)

07 INSIDIOUS $6.7 (cumulative $35.9)

08 SOURCE CODE $6.3 (cumulative $37.0)

09 THE CONSPIRATOR new $3.9

10 YOUR HIGHNESS $3.9 (cumulative $16.0)

Disastrous numbers for the $45 million-budgeted Your Highness, crashing almost 60% in only its second week; but beautiful ones for the $1.5 million budget of Insidious, a bonefide hit that even looks likely to outgross horror rival Scream 4. Sometimes the little guys win!

And how the mighty Ghostface has fallen. Here's a usefulless comparison of the opening weekends for the whole series.

Of course, the original Scream started out small and ended up breaking $100 million, whereas the unfavorably received Scream 3 couped the biggest debut but faltered before $90 million. Those numbers are now just a forgotten dream for Scream 4, of course; how much do you think it'll end up grossing?

Lower down the chart, audiences shrugged at Atlas Shrugged (thanks Glenn), Win Win won a little extra on further expansion, and the biggest winner of the week was Italian thriller Double Hour, snatching the biggest per-screen average with $15,400... on its two screens. But what did you enjoy this weekend, in theatres or at home? I had a scream myself.