Deja Vu: Oscar On Franchise Tides Pt. 2
Tuesday, April 5, 2011 at 3:33PM Though I was about to pronounce 2011 unusually sequel-infested, it might not be much different than any other year. Perhaps it's just the Animated Feature category that has made it feel that way with so many high profile continuations. The difference might just be in how much it seems to be confusing the Oscar Prediction Process. Generally speaking in The Academy's 83 year history, they haven't been much for remakes and sequels and long running series. But times they are a-changing and have been since oh... Star Wars? You can't really stay totally immune to the repetitive charms of franchises if 65% of the movies released are series of some sort, as if the cinema were just one giant television and we all eagerly awaited the next episode of Fill in the Blank: The Further Adventures of That Pt.3.
Franchises have been part of Hollywood forever. From left to right: The Thin Man (7 films), James Bond (22+ films), Tarzan (80+ films), The Pink Panther (11 films), Star Wars (6 films), Batman (6+ features), Aliens (4+ features), The Godfather (3 films). But they haven't always been Oscar magnets
Steven Spielberg and George Lucas shook Hollywood up in the 70s, not just by creating "summer movie season" as we know it but also by opening the floodgates to repetitive Oscar charms. Previous long running franchises like Tarzan or James Bond hadn't managed much in the way of Oscar attention, perhaps viewed more as popcorn entertainments than quality filmmaking. The six-film Star Wars saga amassed 22 nominations and 10 statues, the four-film Indiana Jones adventures amassed 13 nominations and 7 statues. The most obvious ancestor and ultimate champion of this new form of long-form Oscar pull was The Lord of the Rings; over just three films it managed 30 nominations and 17 statues which was even more than The Godfather trilogy (29 nominations and 9 statues)
Two of the world's most popular franchises return this year. What will Oscar do with the Boy Wizard and Captain Jack this time around?
Jack Sparrow (3 films | 11 nominations | 1 win)
- Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)
5 nominations (Actor, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
4 nominations (Art Direction, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects*) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
2 nominations (Makeup, Visual Effects)
The Academy has been quite generous with this series though they snubbed its quite awesome first film costumes by the strangely never nominated Penny Rose. But will they tire of it now that it seems like the series will never leave us? Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides can probably count on a Visual Effects nod since the series has never faltered there but maybe it'll pick up Sound Editing and Makeup too if they're not shouting "Enough already!!!" in unison.
Harry Potter (7 films | 9 nominations | 0 wins)
- Harry Potter and the Sorceror's Stone (2001)
3 nominations (Art Direction, Original Score, Costume Design) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
N/A - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
2 nominations (Original Score, Visual Effects) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
1 nomination (Art Direction) - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix(2007)
N/A - Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince (2009)
1 nomination (Cinematography) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 1 (2010)
2 nominations (Art Direction, Visual Effects)
As you can see from the list, there's not much statistical basis to support the wishful thinking (in some quarters) that AMPAS is itching to reward the entire series this year as it finally closes in its eleventh year of hogging the world's money with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2. The series best bet for a first (!) statue is obviously an Art Direction career-win for Stuart Craig who has done marvelous work on the series. Here's how much they love his work on the series: they even nominated him last year the year in which he arguably did the least. The most perplexing nomination in the series history in terms of 'why then and what does it mean?' would have to be the cinematography nomination for Half Blood Prince. A cinematography get is a big deal and that one does make you wonder how many sixth place finishes, just outside of nomination range, Potter has managed over the years. If the answer is MANY then we might see them rewarding the franchise with a series best showing.
We can probably save the discussion of the third Transformers films and the tech situation with all those superhero films for a later time though let it suffice to say for now that the credits for Thor and particularly Captain America: The First Avenger are stacked with former Oscar players in categories like Original Score, Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup and Film Editing. Who knew? Marvel ain't playin' around.
VISUAL CATEGORY First Oscar Predictions of Year new
AURAL CATEGORY First Oscar Predictions of Year new
Previously: Animated Feature | Actor | Supporting Actor | Screenplay
Reader Comments (13)
Interesting editing predictions, especially if you're thinking those will be five of the ten BP nominees. I guess with Dragon Tattoo, Contagion, Super 8, and even War Horse I'm thinking it's too commercial? Will those really be the five vying for a BP *win*?
Costume design also seems... off? I'm betting W.E. will be completely snubbed this year, especially if the movie is a bomb (which I don't doubt it will be). I think I would predict: Jane Eyre, A Dangerous Method, My Week With Marilyn, J. Edgar, and War Horse (or Immortals).
I don't think that the academy will award Harry Potter (and I say this as a huge Harry Potter fan). I know they awarded "fantasy" in Lord of the Rings, but I think Harry Potter is still perceived as being "for kids." I think LOTR was more for adults and was much more of a sprawling, grand epic... so it had less of a stigma.
PS, you mentioned "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban" twice and left off "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix." :)
I have the same feeling with the Harry Potter films concluding as I did with the Star Wars prequels concluding. While it's a sure fire to get some uber attention (not to mention bucks) from the industry, I don't think it'll laud in that much Oscar attention. Didn't 'Revenge of the Sith' get only one Oscar nod? For Makeup!?!
I think you're correct on the Williams double nomination. It's been six years since he was last included, and you have to assume he was close with Indy 4. The real question is whether he will be able to pull off another Oscar-he hasn't in nearly 20 years.
I can see Harry Potter getting a win in, perhaps, art direction if it shows up (which I'm sure it will). Where else could it appear? Visual Effects, cinematography, make-up, one/two of the sound categories? I can't see it getting into Best Picture like some die hards so desperately hope and think.
Re: Harry Potter, I think Peter's Revenge of the Sith comparison is an interesting one. I was all set for Sith to hoover up half a dozen nominations and take Visual Effects without breaking a sweat, and what happened? Yes, a Make-up nomination and nothing else!
It's also hard to predict Potter because the nominations have been spread over so many categories over the years. At this stage, I'd guess it will get nominations for Cinematography, Art Direction and Visual Effects with (possibly) one or two wins. I'm looking forward to the film, though. After six movies that were, respectively, fun, odd, intriguing, reasonably good, utterly boring and just OK, I though Deathly Hallows Part I was excellent.
I haven't jumped on the Pirates ship since the first film - the lengthy running times put me off (I mean, why not just stay home and rewatch The Godfather?) - but Cruz may get me in to this one.
Stranger Tides and Deathly Hallows: Part II have a pretty good chance at getting VFX nods but after that, things get murky. The Pirates franchise looks to be operating on fumes and with other - newer - franchises rearing their heads this year, they may want to give Pirates a rest.
As for Potter, it'll definitely get some technical nods but getting a BP nod will be an uphill battle. It'll need LOTR-type reviews, the biggest box office of the franchise and to be THEE blockbuster of the year to get in (an awards worthy acting performance might help too) .
It won't end up like Sith, however, because it doesn't have the stigma of ending a critical reviled trilogy nor was Potter made completely out of the Hollywood system (which George Lucas turned his back on years ago).
Interesting that you included a pic of James Bond - the series hasn't received a single nomination since Best Song for For Your Eyes Only in 1981. Even Casino Royale - which received nine Bafta nominations - didn't get a sniff of Oscar.
Am I the only who thinks that they might campaign Emma Watson for Supporting Actress?
The one thing that no one has taken into consideration is that WB is going to push hard for Harry Potter. They skimped on 7.1's advertising to save for 7.2 and it still got two nominations. They're going to push for this one more than they have for the other ones, way more. The one acting nomination it may pull off is for Alan Rickman. He's incredibly overdue in his own right and has stood out among the who's who of great british thespians that populate the series. Early reactions from the recent Chicago screening say he gives the best performance of the cast and is in the emotional high point of not only the film but the entire series. I'd look out for him, supporting actor is where they'll award "weird" performances.
BK -- thanks for the catch. I think i was pretending unconsciously about Order of the Phoenix because it's the only film in the series that I thought was worthy of an acting nomination (Staunton) and it's my favorite -- i think Azkaban is the best "film" but i have no desire to watch it again but Phoenix is fun -- and of course it was stiffed completely ;)
Rami -- ohgod i hope not. I maintain that she's just not a very good actor. I understand people love the movies / characters but that does not mean that the acting is brilliant.
YES, I'M A MUGGLE.
The glut of super hero movies and effects-laden sequels this year makes predicting the tech categories (especially Sound) harder than usual. They can't ALL be good, so which ones will stick? Box office will of course play the biggest role as to which ones are noticed by AMPAS.
I think Super 8, Cowboys and Aliens, and HP72 will get the most notices. Immortals could play even wider (screenplay, costumes, makeup), but it looks like it could go either way. Pirates will get an effects nom, but it will have to be one of the top 3 films of the year, IMO, to get noticed in other categories. Movies like Tinker Tailor Solider Spy, War Horse and Hugo Cabret could also steal prestige tech noms from blockbusters, like The King's Speech's sound mixing nom.
So that leaves the super hero films. Of the 4 biggies scheduled for release (Thor, XMen 4, Captain America and Green Lantern), I think realistically there is only room for one to make a play for Oscars. Right now, I'm betting on Captain America.
Effects:
1. Super 8
2. HP72
3. Cowboys & Aliens
4. Pirates
5. Captain America
Score:
1. War Horse (Williams)
2. Hugo Cabret (Shore)
3. Super 8 (Giacchino)
4. On the Road (Santaoalla)
5. Tree of Life (Desplat)
Editing:
1. Hugo Cabret (Schoonmaker)
2. J. Edgar (Cox, Roach)
3. Super 8
4. War Horse (Kahn)
5. Tree of Life
Costume:
1. Albert Nobbs (Gayraud)
2. A Dangerous Method
3. Hugo Cabret (Powell)
4. War Horse (Johnston)
5. Immortals (Ishioka, Mariano)
Cinematography:
1. War Horse (Kaminski)
2. Albert Nobbs (McDonough)
3. HP72 (Serra)
4. Super 8 (Fong)
5. Cowboys & Aliens (Libatique)
Art Direction:
1. HP72 (Craig)
2. J. Edgar
3. Hugo Cabret (Ferretti)
4. Albert Nobbs
5. War Horse
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