Oscar June Predix Update. What We Know Now...
Wednesday, June 1, 2011 at 1:23AM ... can fit into a thimble or a wee baby's hand. Sometimes by May's end one or two fairly-sure things have become clear, but the closest we have to that, still, is Rango in the animated film department. Old news.
What did the Month of May teach us suggest to us?
1. The Weinsteins, who finally won their first post-Miramax "Best Picture" with The King's Speech, will not likely be satiated by that triumph. It'll just make them hungry for another. They have been beefing up their competitive slate. They either have faith in both Phyllida Lloyd's Thatcher bio The Iron Lady (which sounds typically "prestige" enough for Oscar play, even if it turns out dull) and the crowdpleaser The Artist (which sounds accessible enough for Oscar play, despite being a silent film) or they didn't want anyone else to have one or both of them. You never know with them. And you won't know till the last minute; the Weinsteins are notoriously patient about waiting it out, either because they like to see what the awards air is like, or just because they believe more strongly in the "ONLY DECEMBER!" Oscar strategy than any other distributor. We'll find out more about their plan towards the end of the year.
2. Cannes elevated the intriguing possibility of Kirsten Dunst Best Actress traction for Melancholia -- something we've long hoped for for one of our favorite actresses -- but what's yet more delicious than her Cannes win is the myriad ways this could play out with a complicated mix of voting factors (actual high quality performance, off-performance sympathy votes, career comeback of sorts, Lars von Trier's unpredictable track record in US distribution); Those moviegoers who love to follow the politics of Oscar, not just the movies, are bound to enjoy this particular story as it unfolds.
3. The warm reception for Midnight in Paris raised the distinct possibility that Woody Allen could see his 15th Best Original Screenplay nomination. Pundits, including myself, have regularly sold the idea that Mr Allen is always a threat in the Original Screenplay category but in truth, that "always" is quite an overestimation given that he hasn't been a "regular" since the 90s. (He only received one nomination in the Aughts making him less an always then a 10% kinda guy these days). He didn't even get much Oscar traction for Vicky Cristina Barcelona despite a Golden Globe Picture win and an eventual Oscar for Penélope Cruz. But Midnight, might be a different story. Firstly, there's no individual performance that awards bodies can latch on to -- the showiest work is done by the people with the teeniest parts -- and if anyone reaps the benefits of the love for the film, it'll be Allen himself. Midnight is quite light on its feet despite a theme with melancholy resonance, and it's performing well at the box office. As The Film Experience has always maintained, Oscar voters tastes are basically a figurative amalgam of critics + moviegoers + media; if those three groups like something (even if they do so for entirely different reasons), Oscar will join them.
4. I'm not sure what we know about The Tree of Life. I feel lost here. At first one heard "mixed reviews" than it won the "Palme D'Or" and then it opened. It's been a whirlwind of activity. If the random stories of older audiences walking out are true -- can one ever trust "stories" about certain demographics loving or hating any film? Said stories always seem rife with possible agendas and/or horse's mouth biases -- than it might be dead in the water for Oscar. BUT. It just opened. Let's see how it plays as it expands. If Malick teaches us anything he teaches us patience, right? See you at his next film in 2019! (I'm kidding. Supposedly the next film has already completed shooting... but I'll believe back-to-back Malick releases when they happen and no sooner.)
5. My guess is that Pirates of the Caribbean bombed too badly with critics to win it much heat in the technical categories where it's previously done fairly well for itself. Thor wasn't a big enough deal financially and in the passion-meter of its fans to score any technicals (though it's worth noting that its production designer Bo Welch is an Academy favorite), so the next two superhero tests are X-Men First Class and Green Lantern. For some possibly silly reason, I've convinced myself that it's Captain America that might get the tech nods that you know at least one of the comic book films will win.
Eventually comic book films will invade Oscar. Though it seems improbable now it's a matter of percentages. As more and more of them get made, Oscar will have less and less ways to avoid them.
Here's something we don't know...
What the hell is going on with The Eye of the Storm? It's one of those titles, an adaptation of a novel, that I only discovered in researching potential Oscar players (and talking in the comments to you!) but I never hear a peep about it in terms of "official" anything. Nevertheless it looks promising and actressy, and maybe Geoffrey Rush's post-Speech heat and general hammy deliciousness (to AMPAS palettes at least) can help it out? I've tried everything I could think of to embed the teaser (everything I could think of = copy and paste) but nothing works so you'll have to go to Twitch to see it.
Fly away, pigeon. Just say your farewell and go.
Dying Charlotte Rampling theatrically dismissing bitchy Judy Davis is my new two second obsession. Enjoy it with me!
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Reader Comments (52)
I have a feeling you might have underestimated Young Adult's chances in best picture. Jason Reitman's last two films really fared well and it might be a bit of a "comeback" for Charlize Theron as well, artistically speaking.
Saw Midnight in Paris today. Was expecting Vicky Christina Barcelona level, but god it was.....just not worth it. Lazy, unfunny, and all the parts with the 20's famous artists and writers came off like someone was reciting wikipedia pages. I just found the entire thing incredibly tacky. Little to swoon over, either.
No love for 50/50, Nat? I thought the trailer looked promising.
I'm gonna have to disagree with you on the Pirates front. Not that I've actually seen it, but going based on pure hard stats, every Pirates of the Caribbean film has walked away with at least one nomination AND every Rob Marshall film has walked away with at least one nomination (including every film for Art Direction). Pirates of the Caribbean will probably get VFX in the field of five and maybe a most sound mixing nomination or something.
I'm literally going to pray every night for KiKi getting that Oscar nom. Not kidding.
I'd also love for Elizabeth Olsen to be nominated. Poor girl, no one even knew she existed before; it must be horrible living in the shadow of the Olsen Twins (who I heard didn't even seen her film...don't know how true that is though, of course). I'd love for her to get an Oscar nomination just as a ha-ha to everyone. Of course, she'll probably never make as much money as them, but still...
John Hawkes should be in the top 5 for MMMM and the film and the director should be also at least in the top five? The film had better reviews than other indie films thas were nominated last year, I can't see how can't be nominated... I also doubt Williams is finally nominated for Marilyn, and the Glenn Close film is probrably going nowhere (probrably won't be released as is a film directed by Rodrigo Garcia whose films always have bad luck in terms or releasing). Meryl Streep has the Oscar in the bag, mainly because she has the Bafta almost 100% assured.
Streep may sneak out an Oscar with such a weak lineup of Best Actresses. I think she is the frontrunner now that Harvey has snatched up her film along with an awards push.
Amir -- the way i'm looking at it is that no director ever has a CONSTANT oscar record. So I'm guessing that this will be a slight dip for Reitman but yeah I could be wrong.
Squasher88 -- i mostly liked the trailer too but it seems "funny people" ish to me and not necessarily big enough or non-apatowish enough for Oscar. but yeah i could be wrong.
John -- but reviews aren't everything. I wnoder if it will be accessible enough for mainstream Oscar? but yeah i could be wrong.
Brady -- oh, i still think Pirates is a threat. I just think it won't be the easy get that the film had in previous years in those categories because of the lack of "love"... and also there don't seem to be any visual f/x this time that were OHMYGODLOOKATTHIS like there were in the first three pictures. buty yeah i could be wrong.
THE THEME OF ALL PUNDITS: BUT YEAH I COULD BE WRONG. ;)
X-Men First Class is getting some ridiculously good reviews...if it has legs for most of the summer then it could do well for itself. Right now, it's at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. But really, compared with the other superhero movies coming out, the pedigree of actors here is most likely what elevates the film above typical fare...same thing with why The Dark Knight succeeded so well.
Does any other Aussie's know if The Eye of the Storm's australian September release is still on, or have they shifted it.
Oh, God, Nathaniel. As a fan of "guilty-pleasure" type tv shows I've seen an episode or two of The Secret Life of the American Teenager. Shailene Woodley couldn't act herself out of a paper bag. Seriously, what she does could be considered offensive.
I could be wrong...Payne cast her and all....but...Lord have mercy.
50/50 trailer DID look pretty decent. I'd love for Kendrick to get some more AMPAS love but that looks like the Gordon-Levitt show with some Rogan one-liners added for flavor.
Tom Hiddleston is my new fave little-known actor.
Kurtis -- yeah, he's pretty easy to watch on screen. :)
Jonathon -- i worried about that, knowing there was tv in the past. but we'll see. bad actors have gone on to good work before. but i was probably too hasty.
The Kirsten Dunst is going to be the Oscar story to follow. The nomination won't be easy (unless she gets absolutely flooded with critics awards, and even then...), but as recent years have show, winning a Cannes award doesn't mean you can't get in (Bardem and Waltz).
As for the superheroes, X-Men (bolstered by good reviews) and Captain America have some decent shots at art/tech noms, especially because they're technically period pieces too. What with X-Men set in the 60s, AMPAS could simply go, "Well, since it's impossible for us to give an award to Mad Men, we'll throw a nomination to that other period piece with January Jones..."
Can't wait for The Artist and Midnight In Paris. Both look really exciting, and seem like strong contenders for the Oscars.
Elizabeth is probably the best role Rampling will ever play. Something of a cross between Plummer in The Last Station, Dench in Notes On A Scandal, and Mirren in The Queen, with some incredibly baity scenes (one imparticular). She also has 6 films coming out this year (including the Von Trier), and is the subject of a documentary hot off Cannes, which got great reviews. This, coupled with her 'overdue' status, the type of role, the Nobel-Prize-winning source material and the added prestige and attention her director and castmates are likely to get, I think she has a good shot.
Davis and Rush (they might want to give him rollover support from last year's loss and her Husbands And Wives snub was a pretty huge deal in Hollywood) are also in amazing roles, and Schepisi has gotten acting attention from the Academy before. The screenplay and techs (art direction, costume design) might also get in, the Academy love period. I think the chances of the film depend on its distribution, but it's the kind of film the Academy will eat up if it's seen by enough people. There's a website with stills (and on that note, some of the photography in the trailer is gorgeous) and an Australian release date, so we should be hearing something soon.
I can't see Kirsten Dunst getting nominated for Melancholia, I'm afraid -- the film sits way outside the Academy comfort zone, and good as she is in it, the performance isn't the kind of emotionally expansive tour de force that could override that factor with voters. (It's not even entirely her show -- she and Charlotte Gainsbourg pretty much shoulder the film equally.)
Sure, the Cannes award doesn't hurt -- but tell that to Barbara Hershey.
If you're looking for a Best Actress contender out of Cannes, I swear Tilda Swinton is the better bet.
It's early but I bet that the 3 films preselected by Spain to compite for the foreign film award will be: The skin I live in (Pedro Almodóvar), The last circus (Alex de la Iglesia) and La voz dormida (Benito Zambrano). And the selected will be almost 100% assured La voz dormida because the film is about the spanish civil war and the death penalty.
I can roll with screenplay and cinematography, but The Artist *really* needs to knock it out of the park with the audience to get that Best Pic nom. Of course, I haven't actually seen it, but that is a bold prediction. On the other hand, I've noticed that Cannes buzz only leads to Oscar love if the buzz is deafening, and The Artist certainly has that advantage (also why I think Dunst is at a disadvantage; I heard more hosannas for Swinton). Besides, if we're not going to be bold in June, this is going to get SO DULL so fast.
GUY -- but it's not like We Need To Talk About Kevin is in their comfort zone either! I'm also going on the assumption that Dunst is the type of performer Oscar most loves (pretty, late 20s/early 30s, already established but doesn't have their "stamp" and media savvy and therefore able to campaign well.)
WENDY -- trust that i would have put Rampling in after seeing those clips if i knew what the distribution situation was.
If Dunst and Gainsbourg share lead time in Melancholia then maybe they will try to campaign Dunst in Supporting, which could be successful for her. Also, considering it would be her first nod.
Re: Shailene Woodley
"If she's sympathetic and in pain rather than just bratty and hurt (it's tough to tell from the trailer) [...]"
It looked a lot like more of the latter than the former to me.
That trailer looks like plenty of ham salad sandwich to go around. Is Rampling really old enough to play mother to Davis and Dench? Dench almost looks older than she does, even with the wig and "old age" makeup. (Not terribly convincing to my eyes, but perhaps that's the fault of my new high-speed internet.)
You really are being snide bout the possibilities of Strreep and the "Iron Lady" ... I certainly hope it triumphs.... mainly to see you wrong.
Kirsten Dunst is 29 years old (just turned in April). Correct me if I'm wrong Nat, but isn't that the age you say a lot of young actresses win the Oscar for Best Actress, or at least get a career boost with a major nomination? I'm not saying that will be a factor, but just something interesting to consider. And, remember Guy, Black Swan wasn't exactly in the Academy's comfort zone and yet with the right campaign and push for the performance, Natalie Portman became practically unstoppable (the surprising box office success of the film and its Best Picture nomination didn't hurt either, so we'll have to see if that happens with Melancholia), so I think if they can make a good Oscar story out of Kirsten Dunst, this could be the right time for her to win or even just get nominated.
I deeply hope that you are right and I am wrong. But I have a bad feeling that you may be underestimating the impact that The Help is about to have.
I know it’s super far fetched, but why wouldn’t Kristen Wiig be considered as another possibility for a nomination? She’s excellent in Bridesmaids, carries the whole movie, is the breakout star of the summer, and it’s rare, but not unlikely that a female comedic performance should be considered for oscar (Joan Cusak, Diane Keaton). Plus, given the business the movie is making I wouldn’t rule out a bit of award campaign for Wiig from Universal, And, she has a Golden Globe nod in the bag in my mind.
rick -- it's silly to want something to do well at oscar just to prove me wrong. Wait till you actually LIKE the movie to want me to be wrong ;) I don't recall what I said that was snide other than the (to me) very obvious possibility that it might be a little dull. I don't think that's snide so much as an honesty about "prestige" films, 50% of which seem all right at the time and 5 years later NO ONE CARES. Frost/Nixon anyone? A Beautiful Mind beating EVERYTHING that it beat, all of which are more discussed and more beloved by audiences now.That's just two examples but every year has a few.
Cristhian -- you may be right that a GG nod is in the bag. That'll be fun. But Oscar doesn't really go for that type of film beyond the longshot occassional screenplay citation.
Isaac -- yes, 29 years old is the EXACT age. It's not my opinion but fact: more "Best Actress" winners win at 29 than at any other age. Last year was another example.
I think Dunst should enjoy the Cannes prize and actually use that now to seek out and fight for choice projects. Oscar for this release? I don't think so -- especially since this race will be just as strong as last year's -- and my God help us if that Olsen sister lands a spot!
I want Glenn Close, Meryl Streep, Kristen Wiig, Tilda Swinton, and a mystery guest that won't make me sick or piss me off in the 5th spot. I want grown ups in the Best Actress category.
I'm sure the Olsen sister is gonna get a nomination, jennifer lawrence style. Kirsten Dunst is to perfect to pass up. It's her time, all she needed was a awesome performance and I guess she's got that. And people saying how being in a Lars von trier film is a minus.....um....like he hasn't directed a actress to a leading nomination before...
My June Predix:
-"The Artist" will be the surprise of the season. Audience and critics LOVED it and the resemblance to Old Hollywood is too good for denied.
-"Drive" is a good question. It has an excellent road and effect in Cannes; also with Bob Berney, could break the obstacles.
-"A Dangerous Method". I still believe is more 50/50 at the chances of Oscars. With Cosmopolis next in line, without a distributor and themes like: sadomasochism, sexual desire and other controversies are though to sell.
-"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo". Sony made an excellent campaign for the film.
-"Super 8". The reviews aren't exactly glowing. If Nolan couldn't make it...
Picture:
-The Artist
-Carnage
-Drive
-The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-The Iron Lady
-J. Edgar
-Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
-The Tree of Life
-War Horse
-Young Adult
Director:
-Roman Polanski - The Artist
-Nicolas Winding Refn - Drive
-David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-Phyllida Lloyd - The Iron Lady
-Jason Reitman - Young Adult
Alt: Steven Spielberg - War Horse
Actor:
-Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
-Jean Dujardin - The Artist
-Joseph Gordon-Levitt - 50/50
-Ryan Gosling - Drive
-Gary Oldman - Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Alt: Michael Fassbender
Actress:
-Jodie Foster - Carnage
-Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
-Elizabeth Olsen - Martha, Marcy, May, Marlene
-Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
-Charlize Theron - Young Adult
Alt: Kirsten Dunst
Actor in a Supporting Role:
-Albert Brooks - Drive
-Armie Hammer - J. Edgar
-Tom Hardy - The Wettest County of the World
-Brad Pitt - The Tree of Life
-Christoph Waltz - Carnage
Alt: Jude Law
Actress in a Supporting Role:
-Anjelica Huston - 50/50
-Keira Knightley - A Dangerous Method (If Knightley got a nomination would be in this category)
-Vanessa Redgrave - Corionalus
-Octavia Spencer - The Help
-Stephanie Szostak - We Bought a Zoo
Alt: Marion Cotillard
I definitely think it's still right to have Tree of Life in there. The field of ten can favor passion over polite consensus. Those who like ToL will probably rank it high on their ballots, even if they don't represent a large portion of AMPAS voters.
As for Kiki, I dunno. It'll be an uphill battle. The Black Swan comparison is only semi-apt since Aronofsky is still more accessible than Von Trier. Voters won't vote for Kiki if they haven't seen Melancholia and I can see a lot of them rejecting it outright (note for PR purposes: "lesbians" is a better buzzword than "nazis"). Not to mention I sense that people are starting to feel like Streep is about due for another and they do love their portrayals of real people.
I went back this past year and looked at blogs where this was your attitude... I even responded on 2 of them.. I can't and don't expect you to remember them.
As far as proving you wrong... i really want it to be good and Streep to win another Oscar. You and a large group on your blog seem to think of "mimicking" as NOT acting ... your opinions and not mine.
Also, Streep can open a movie, so why not have her in prestigious ones... you make her sound like a glutton... if offered, and suitable... then why not take it. She's worked damned hard to reach the level she is now at. Some of these movies might not even get funded without her attached to them.
You all admire Moore and Pfeiffer .. Moore is OK ( has done more duds than good movies)... as beautiful as she is, what movie has Michelle opened lately or actually ever?
Kirsten Dunst, best supporting actress for On The Road? That'd reward her for her recent auteur lust in something less controversial than a movie by a director who joked about nazism. It's a beloved novel, too.
You mention that there are some doubters of Fassbender's excellence. I've hear none of this. Where? Who? How dare they?
Nathaniel: No doubt, We Need To Talk About Kevin is a hard sell too. But I think Swinton's performance, more than Dunst's, is of the emotional scale and texture that might prompt voters to single it out from an otherwise "difficult" film. (Let's not forget that the film is based on a major bestseller, too -- it's a slightly more comfortable prospect than Melancholia.)
I'm basing this purely on my own instincts after having seen each performance -- I can see that on paper, the situation might look different.
Isaac: Comparisons to Black Swan carry no weight -- Melancholia doesn't have the marketing muscle of Fox Searchlight behind it, isn't going to have that level of pop culture cachet and won't gross anything close to $100 million. (And once more, performance is a factor -- Portman's was a technical showpiece, Dunst's is considerably more low-key.)
PS. No mention of Albert Brooks (Drive) in the Supporting Actor category -- an oversight, or are you not buying the Cannes whispers? I'm not the only one who sniffed awards potential there -- beloved, long-absent character actor, cast viciously against type as a villain, and rocking it.
I haven't seen the film, but I'd love for Kirsten Dunst to get some rewards for her career. An Oscar nomination would just feel like such a victory for her - and her fans that never wavered - and for a Lars von Trier science-fiction film no less! I wouldn't bet on her being nominated, but we'll see how it goes.
As for "Eye of the Storm", well, it has an Aussie release date, but apart from that trailer I haven't seen or heard anything on the release front. Definitely looking forard to it with that talent involved though.
For some reason I'm getting a "Somewhere" vibe from "The Descendants". I'll surley be proven wrong, but I can't help but feel it might just be met with a pleased shrug. Like, it'll be good as all Alexander Payne movies are, but won't feel like enough of a stretch to warrent much thought. Hmmm...
Oh, and as for "X-Men: First Class" it won't be getting Oscar nominations. The visual effects are in the same class as the other X-Men movies. Nice, but hardly exceptional and they don't have much pizazz. Meanwhile, despite being set in the 1960s, the costume design and art direction aren't big enough to warrant nominations. Unlike, "Captain America" which looks like it's really utilising its setting well.
I'd LOVE to see "Thor" grab some nominations. Not in visual effects, as the effects work was nice but occasionally messy, but for the whacked out costume design and art direction. Entire cities made of gold with buildings that have similar archetectural concepts as The Sydney Opera House? Plus, the rainbow bridge! Massive costumes of capes, armour and yet more gold. Loved those aspects of "Thor", which is admittedly a movie I liked more than most others.
I have a feeling that Crazy Stupid Love might surprise in Picture, Actor, and Original Screenplay. It won't win but watch out.
Also, this year it's going to be Weinstrin vs Rudin/Sorkin Round 2. One of those movies is taking home the Picture prize.
Lastly, re:Reitman...Daldry is 3 for 3 and if his new flick will be finished then I expect him to o 4 for 4 with Bullock getting a Best Actress nomination. Yes, her win might have been undeserved BUT at least you can't say that she isn't trying now. She looks to have the most promising Post Oscar win career for an actress since...Probably Mirren.
I meant Rudin/Fincher. Goodnight y'all.
I'm gonna throw in Alan Rickman for Harry Potter in Supporting Actor. It could happen... yeah...
Michael B., how Bullock could compete for Best Actress when her character is more supporting especially if the film is faithfull to the novel? She could be in only a third part for the film. But if the film is finished I think Bullock and Caldwell are shoe-in in the supporting category.
About her post-Oscar career. I think we can made that list (for Best to Worst):
-Helen Mirren
-Nicole Kidman
-Marion Cotillard
-Kate Winslet
-Sandra Bullock (At least on paper sounds good)
-Natalie Portman (Two Box office hits this year, even with her turd)
-Julia Roberts
-Hilary Swank
-Gwyneth Paltrow
-Helen Hunt
-Halle Berry
-Reese Witherspoon
RICK -- well, i've never considered the ability to open a movie to be an important factor in whether or not to support or love an actor. Michelle had her day (it's not like she's without hits) but yes, the ship has sailed (unlike Streep who the public still obsesses over)
and i don't feel that mimicking is NOT acting, just that it's not the most valuable kind of acting and should not, therefore, hog 50% of Oscar wins. it's just such a snooze. especially with actors who are capable of SO much more (like Streep herself) an who can create characters that feel 100% three dimensional from their own imagination... a more valuable skill then mimicry, in my way of thinking.
GUY -- its more about not believing in that type of film getting Oscar heat. But also in this case, I wasn't really aware of the nature of his role (Brooks). I've become weirdly anti-review this year (just a phase i'm going through) because i so cherish being surprised in the movie theater and especially with these super long lead reviews from festivals... i'm just nervous about reading them.
Michael B -- i'll believe it when i see it, that 4 for 4 business. talk about record breaking.
I do appreciate your time in addressing my concerns... that's why I have been on your blog for 4 years... I do not comment very often... and I MUST say that 75% of the time I am totally on your "belief" side.
I truly enjoy the work you do.
As usual, I have something to say about every single category and comment (50/50 won't be nominated for an Oscar!), however I will limit myself to just one line: Zooey Deschanel for Best Song- http://youtu.be/N2QOiW-i1bw
So what's the deal with "The Artist"? It's a silent French film that celebrates old Hollywood? The Weinsteins are the distributor, and the lead actor won at Cannes? Can this be a legitimate Oscar contender, being a silent film in 2011 and all? Is there something I'm missing?
Yonatan -- that is blocked on copyright grounds so i have no idea what it is. which movie? did she write it for the movie?
RC -- i believe the "something missing" part is how ecstatic people felt about it. and we know that "heart" is a big part of awards voting. Plus, since it's silent, language of production hardly matters (plus it also has american actors in it)