The Best Picture Puzzle Has How Many Pieces?
Sunday, December 28, 2014 at 11:11AM 
With Into the Woods and Unbroken opening so well over Christmas, one has to think that their Best Picture chances have been bolstered. Both are currently in that foggy area of "will they or won't they?" a siamese twin to "how many Best Picture nominees will we get?" punditry.
If you look to the current Best Picture Chart, I think you'll agree that the eventual fates of anything beyond the top five (Selma, Birdman, Boyhood, The Theory of Everything, and The Imitation Game) seem uncertain. If you compare my chart to the current Gurus of Gold (in which we made suggestions as to what films voters should be screening this week) you'll see that the top ten films are basically the same albeit in a slightly different order and with the consensus being that I'm underestimating Foxcatcher and overestimating Into the Woods.
Obviously Grand Budapest Hotel will be enjoying multiple nominations but can it manage the biggies like Best Picture & Best Director & Best Actor? If we were still in ye olden times of only 5 nominees would it be our 'lone wolf' auteur triumph? I am undoubtedly the most bearish of any of the pundits about its fate but it's only because I have long lamented the fate of Wes Anderson pictures with AMPAS. One sounds like a complete nutter when one says it out loud but the following statement is in fact true "No Wes Anderson live action picture has ever been nominated for ANYTHING outside of Best Screenplay." No, not even Best Production Design which nearly all of them have deserved.
And what of the Fincher continuum? Will Gone Girl be another Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which justmissed a Best Picture nomination despite love across multiple Academy branches?
We're at war here.
It's been ages and ages since an NBR Best Picture winner didn't make the Oscar lineup but did the simmering A Most Violent Year open too late (i.e. two days after voting even begins) for a race that requires the full boil around New Years?
One of These Will Win Birdman, Boyhood, Selma
Sure Things The Imitation Game, Theory of Everything
Probably? Grand Budapest Hotel, Whiplash
But What About? Gone Girl, Unbroken, Into the Woods, Foxcatcher, A Most Violent Year
Longshots Interstellar, Nightcrawler, Mr Turner, American Sniper
Why Aren't They In the Conversation? Wild, Ida
So many questions. So many theoretical answers. Oscar ballots go out tomorrow so the next week is absolutely crucial. If we get 9 Best Picture nominations again I think it's safe to say that the Academy's executives just need to admit that their shifting number of Picture nominees experiment is a failure and round it back up to a Top Ten or return to the old five-wide standard.
How many nominees do you think we'll get?
Reader Comments (37)
I think that Nightcrawler (and Jake) shouldn't be underestimated. It keeps showing up everywhere and, if we have 9 nominees this year, I do believe that it could make it.
I do wish they would go back to 5 nominees again, even though the new system gave us amazing nominees like Tree of Life, Amour and Her.
I think you may be underestimating American Sniper. I feel the late opening has masked its appeal and that it will resonate more with the Academy. I also feel you are overestimating both Into the Woods and Violent Year.
I like having more nominees in Best Picture because I think it gives a platform to more films that might otherwise miss out on deserved recognition. If we accept that "the sum is better than the parts" should be a guide to making a great film, then this category (and none of the others) should be the place to offer more choices.
I was told at one point that it would be nine every single year and so far, that's held true. Interstellar or Nightcrawler would floor me. I don't quite understand how Wild fell out of the conversation. NBR rarely goes out on a limb and I feel like they did this year. I don't think Year is in. Whiplash and Gone Girl seem up their alley. Unbroken is at 50% on RT and Into the Woods... for some reason it doesn't seem right. Box office doesn't convince me on nods, though Django's biggest precursor was being a hit, I suppose. So I'll go Boyhood, Birdman, Selma, Theory, Imitation, Whiplash, Gone Girl, Budapest (his "OK we give in" moment) and I guess Foxcatcher barely hangs on, which probably means Carell over Gyllenhaal, sadly. So then Director... Linklater and Inarritu are the only sure things. Fincher, DuVernay, Anderson? Not sure of anything. Could be a surprising nomination morning.
It's kind of sad to note that virtually all the Best Picture frontrunners are so male centered. You have to go down to WILD OR IDA to see one primarily focused on a woman. On the other hand, in "Just-Trying-to-Make-a-Buck" popular cinema, women-focused films seen to actually be doing at least a bit better this year, what with HUNGER GAMES, LUCY, MALEFICENT.
I really dislike the 10 / 9 / however nominees that we had the last few years, a Best Picture nomination should be special, not an all inclusive list, they should go back to 5 no matter what. Half the fun was moaning about the films that made it to the 5 only list when they didn't deserve it (Chocolat and Ghost both come to mind) because the nomination was so special. I couldn't even muster any sort of reaction to The Blind Side getting a nomination because it was in a 10 strong field.
My instincts are saying Nightcrawler may sneak in. It seems like the type of film that would garner number one votes. Conversely, I have trouble thinking that Theory is anyone's favorite film of the year. Who's passionate about it beyond the performances, really?
Is Mr. Turner completely out? Leigh and Spall have been very visible so far this season. I might add it to the "longshot" list - I know it's been a long time since the academy has loved a Leigh film,and the British vote has plenty of films to split votes this year (poor Pride!).
While I liked Into the Woods, I can't see it being nominated for Best Picture. I don't have any desire to see most of the other potential nominees at the movie theater this year. Out of the major contenders, I've seen Gone Girl, Budapest, and Woods. I'll catch the rest at Redbox I guess.
My guess is there will be 6 Best Pic nominees: Birdman, Boyhood, Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, Selma and The Grand Budapest Hotel sneaking in at the end. Theory of Everything will get Actor and actress nods, but miss out mostly everywhere else including Best Pic. I'd love to see Fiennes sneak into the fifth slot for Actor, but I'm thinking Cooper gets in at the last minute over Gyllenhaal.
I'm guessing Meryl gets a nod and Into the Woods gets a few tech nods like Costuming and Sound. Emily Blunt and Chris Pine were surprisingly good, along with Anna Kendrick, but I just don't see them getting nominated. That fifth Actress spot will probably go to Aniston.
Its such a weird year where almost every category seems up in the air except for Moore winning for Best Actress (and even that is shaky).
I'm surprised American Sniper isn't in the conversation more - it is probably going to turn into a HUGE hit when it breaks wide in January, and it is genuinely the best Eastwood film in years, even if the domestic side of the film leaves much to be desired. It's certainly better than biopic flotsam like The Theory of Everything. Is AS too conservative? Breaking out too late?
I haven't seen a bunch of the projected nominees yet, so I shouldn't really opine, but this continues to feel like a really uninspired year Oscar-wise. I really hope Grand Budapest can break in. If it can't, we really should all just accept that Wes Anderson is never going to be Oscar's cup of tea!
1. We will get 9 nominations
2. Nathaniel, I'm going to argue that The Grand Budapest Hotel is actually far more secure than anything beyond B2s. It's had a remarkable precursor run, broke through internationally in a way that Wes Anderson films haven't done before (it nearly doubled it's domestic take abroad - this is a box office success in a way we don't normally see). I'd argue that it has a nostalgic sense of the past that will appeal to older voters. If it failed at this point, I'd be genuinely surprised.
3. Gone Girl - a box office hit and discussion film that got largely positive reviews. That alone seems likely to push it to the final slate. I have it 7th.
Can we just go back to 5? Sort of makes anything more than that a bit pointless.
A24 really shot itself in the foot by giving 'A Most Violent Year' such a late release date. It has the reviews to be a strong contender, but at this point I don't think it will manage any nominations at all.
Eh, I like having a flexible number of nominees and wouldn't mind seeing it across the board.
Sacrilege, I know.
According to the critics charge, Ida is number 8th and the movie has been mention by many during the award season so far. Ida may surprise in the supporting actress categorie as well
I really don't know what to make of Foxcatcher. It's getting some lauds but to me it falls into the "Llewyn Davis" spot of movies that are too dark no matter the acclaim. And it certainly doesn't have Llewyn Davis levels of support. On the other hand, this does seem like a weaker year for Oscary movies...
In short, I have it in 11th but won't be surprised if it makes it in.
As for the number of nominees, this year feels very different than other years-- there are fewer sure nominees and more question marks. I'll be shocked if we get nine for a fourth year in a row. I'm guessing seven for the moment (and it does change by the moment for me)-- the five sure bets, Unbroken by inertia, and Gone Girl by box office success / Fincher goodwill. Grand Budapest, Whiplash, and Into the Woods round out my top ten.
Nightcrawler is the sleeper in Picture and Supporting Actress.
I have to assume Grand Budapest Hotel will continue to hit every mark with the guilds. Art Directors, Costumes, Music... No reason not to think it's #6 or #7, especially if it gets the DGA nom.
You're right about the failed experiment. The problem is, the data they analyzed was when *voters were voting for five Best Picture nominees.* Now, you have to presume the voters are voting a bit more strategically since they know their #1 votes count and should be spread out accordingly. I wouldn't be shocked to see 7 or 8 (or 10) this year just because the race hasn't quite firmed up like in other years, but it's looking a bit pointless to have the charade continue.
Evan, I'm intrigued by that. Does this year seem that much different from 2011? 2012/2013 I get - the surfeit of films from previous nominees and winners was quite high. But this feels akin to 2011 except for the strength of the frontrunners (Boyhood and Birdman feel much stronger than The Artist did). 2012 felt VERY different from 2011, but it still yielded the same number of films.
It is so discouraging to realize that The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything, those most blatant musty, mildewed Oscar bait dishes of the season, will be nominated for BP. Why must the Academy always feel compelled to reward respectable, predictable faux prestige. Ugh.
@brookesboy - I love that you said "mildewed". Reminded me of "Sawdust and Mildew" winning Best Picture in the third Naked Gun movie (over Richard Attenborough's musical about Mother Teresa, no less).
@brookeboy, I couldn't agree more! I kept/keep hoping that the same undiscerning batch of voters would split between Imitation and Theory and neither (or only one) of them would get in, but I guess that batch of voters is larger than I thought.
I need to catch up on a lot of movies...Jake should be nominated for "NightCrawler"- I doubt "Interstellar" will get anything but the technical awards nomination.
Arkaan- you're right that this year is more like 2011, though I'd argue that there were six locks that year (all but War Horse, EL&IC, and Tree of Life). I'd also imagine that this year's fringe films are less likely to have intense support than the additional nominees that year.
Jake D- I think you bring up a good point with the caveat that the real change occurred between 2008 and 2009, when they adopted the preferential ballot and expanded the field. With more nominees, I'm guessing that voters were willing to consider more films (for example, one might not consider The Visitor when there are only five possible nominees but they may when there are ten slots.) I'd be willing to bet that if we could review that analysis of the new voting system that was done in 2011 (where they said that between 2000-2010, there were between 5-9 nominees), that the years 2009/2010 had more nominees on average than 2000-2008.
I believe that we're more likely to have higher numbers of nominees under this voting system, but I refuse to believe that nine is always going to be the amount like some argue. Small sample sizes can yield weird coincidences and at some point we'll get a different result. I bet that the different result occurs this year.
One of these will win: Nailed.
Sure Things: Nailed.
Probably: I doubt Whiplash is really above Gone Girl, but it might be in there.
But What About: Unbroken's not getting a top 10 slot. The reception is split too far down the middle as far as positivity goes (51% on Rotten Tomatoes) and even the positive reception is leaning towards the probability of it getting zero #1 votes. A Most Violent Year is a crime movie and, unless there's some sort of serious entrenched brand selling going on (Godfather II, GoodFellas, Godfather III, Bugsy), those NEED to open earlier (Godfather 1, Pulp Fiction) than glut time for Best Picture play. JC Chandor, Chastain and Isaac are players, sure, but they're not Godfather, Beatty or Scorsese level yet. Chastain's definitely on her way there, but I'd guess that that status is unlikely for Chandor or Isaac. Other three are genuinely open questions.
Longshots: I'd say Nightcrawler and Mr. Turner are But What About? movies along with The Lego Movie, but Interstellar IS one along with Wild and Ida.
Agree they should go back to 5. It was so much more interesting...
Hoping for Boyhood, Foxcatcher, Whiplash and Gone Girl.
I think the real box office story of the weekend is American Sniper. Did anyone expect it to beat Selma, in 1/4 as many theaters (and with far less publicity)? It just seems like an enormous take for a film that wasn't expected to do much. Your top 7 predictions are likely correct, but for the last two, I'd go with Gone Girl (a real, adult box office hit with critical acclaim, too) and possibly Sniper, if they're going with a year-end release in addition to Selma and Imitation Game... They love Eastwood and Bradley Cooper. Otherwise, Foxcatcher could sneak in.
Unbroken is a critical dud... It would be an embarrassing nomination. And Into the Woods doesn't feel like a BP nominee.
A couple of thoughts: If A Most Violent Year isn't nominated, it would be the first NBR winner since Quills (2000) not nominated for Best Picture. With the expanded field, that doesn't sound like a very likely outcome, but the late release date seems to be hurting it with precursors. On the other hand, same thing almost happened to Letters from Iwo Jima back in 2006 (NBR winner, late release date, snubbed by Guilds and still made it to a Best Picture nomination on Oscar morning) though that was Clint. We'll see what happens.
Also, if Selma wins Best Picture, it would be the first winner since Braveheart (1995) without a SAG Ensemble nomination (even Million Dollar Baby, which only had three actors with individual title cards, got an Ensemble nomination). Of course, many may argue had the SAG voters received screeners earlier, it would be there. Again, we'll see what happens there, though I don't know if we should put Selma up with Boyhood and Birdman just yet.
I still have some hope that Pride will surprise in the Best Pic field. It all depends on how the BAFTA treat it. If it scores heaps of nominations then maybe some Academy members will give it some love.
The Academy has gone for critical duds many times before, though. Remember Extreme Loud & Incredibly Close? Or (heaven help us) Babel?
Fun fact: in the last 50 years (which is all I could find data for), no film released after 12/27 has been nominated for Best Picture.
Is there that much difference between 12/27 and 12/31? With New Year's festivities, I think there might be...
Bette -- only the BAFTA nominations aren't announced until January 8th and Oscar ballots are due on January 9th so it's too late to influence it. The only thing it might due is show us unexpected support for something overseas... which sometimes translates. but sometimes doesn't.
Robert G - That is true, but the "inspirational true story" crowd likely to go for Unbroken has three other movies (Theory, Imitation and Selma) to vote for this season. It also seems that Unbroken has been so eclipsed by Jolie's star power at this point, which wouldn't have been as much of an issue if it were a better film. If they nominate it, they'll look like they're just cravenly appealing to its celebrity director - and not even the Globes did that.
Robert G-- Babel was a much different case than EL&IC, though. First of all, Babel had a 69% RT score, which isn't exactly a good score, but it's certainly better than EL&IC's 46%. And the proponents of Babel seemed to be a lot more passionate. I think Ebert even said it was his personal choice for Picture and Director when he did his Oscar article that year. Babel wasn't a critical dud; it was just divisive. Plus it was nominated by PGA, DGA, SAG, BAFTA, and it won the Golden Globe, so it was very much in the thick of the race, and it even looked like a threat to win at one point. EL&IC was a surprise nominee.
All that being said, I don't think Unbroken is in a similar position to either of those movies. It doesn't seem to have much passion coming from either direction. Very few people really love it, but at the same time, very few people really hate it. If it ends up being nominated, I think a closer comparison might be War Horse, which ostensibly made it in on sheer goodwill towards the "prestige" of the project. But I personally don't think it's getting in.
The way I see the race:
LOCKS:
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman
3. Selma
4. The Imitation Game
5. The Theory of Everything
STRONG CONTENDERS:
6. The Grand Budapest Hotel
7. Whiplash
8. Gone Girl
POTENTIAL FILLERS:
9. American Sniper
10. Foxcatcher
11. Unbroken
12. Into the Woods
DARK HORSES:
13. Mr. Turner
14. Nightcrawler
15. A Most Violent Year
The reason I have Whiplash ahead of Gone Girl despite the precursors thus far weighing in favor of Gone Girl is that everything I've read indicates that there is real passion for Whiplash, whereas Gone Girl could potentially be Girl with the Dragon Tattoo 2.0, i.e. I wouldn't be totally surprised if it ended up not making the cut despite precursor support.
Edwin, to be fair, when the Oscar discussion was happening, Babel did not have that high a review score. It was just above or below 60 until it opened much later. It had the lowest rating of any of the best picture nominees that year and got in over films with much better reviews. That's where the comparison really comes in. Believe me, I remember obsessing over the tomato meter back then and watching that one swing rotten to fresh and back again day by day.
Unbroken is going to pull some of the true story crowd, yes, but it's also the only period war film in contention this year. WWII still has cache with these voters. Remember The Reader's surprising awards run? That one's only at 61% years later.
Critical response does not dictate award's attention, as we all learned when Surf's Up got an Animated Film nomination.
^"The only period war film in contention this year"? Let me introduce you to The Imitation Game.
But I still think it has a great shot, being right in the Academy's wheelhouse, having a major star as a director, and having been hyped all year.
Your Best Picture 10:
Begin Again
Birdman
Edge of Tomorrow
Frank
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Inherent Vice
A Most Violent Year
Nightcrawler
Pride
Selma
...in the Twilight Zone.
In:
Boyhood
Birdman
Selma
The Theory of Everything
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Gone Girl
Could sneak in:
Foxcatcher
Dark Horse:
Nightcrawler
Thank you for mentioning IDA as a movie that SHOULD be considered. It is one of the most critically well-reviewed movies of the year, and THE single most honored film on the planet across the board.
Yet, some mediocrity like UNBROKEN opens and it's immediately vaulted into the top ranks just because it is a big budget American production and directed by a celebrity. IDA is a sublime masterwork.