J.K. ("Just Keep-On") Simmons Still Leading. Final Predictions!
Monday, January 12, 2015 at 1:49PM 
Last night's Golden Globes did nothing to change the long since frozen Best Supporting Actor race. It's so frozen that I think everyone even agrees on the order or support for each player (which is fairly unheard of). So get your place in line for the coronation parade for everyone's favorite shouty music professor. Especially after a strong acceptance speech. Barring a total shock on Thursday morning our line up will look exactly like it's been looking for some time now in the year's least contested acting category (seriously. People are still trying to make Best Actress that but it is SO not)
Best Supporting Actor Final Predictions
Robert Duvall, The Judge (5th place)
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood (4th place)
Edward Norton, Birdman (2nd place)
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher (3rd place)
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash (1st place)
So what happened to Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice)?
Paul Thomas Anderson's film came out too late. Though Brolin is by far the best thing in it, the material is "far out" enough to keep people talking about a ton of other elements for far too long for the hazy discussion and fog to clear and leave the buzz to coalesce around him. When it hits DVD and cable people will surely say "How did Brolin NOT get nominated for this?" and they'll probably say it for years to come.
So what happened to Tom Wilkinson (Selma)? Heated objections to Selma, which came quite quickly and suspiciously given the lack of scrutiny of the other "true stories" in the race, ALL centered around its portrayal of LBJ.
So what happened to Chris Pine (Into the Woods)? It would have taken Into the Woods being a Best Picture sure thing rather than a 'bubble' film to pull the cartoon Prince in. People do love him in it but you need Picture buzz or a different kind of career than he has at the moment, to win a nomination for such a broadly comic part. Not that this particular category objects to comedy.
See the Oscar chart here.
If you're a Norton or Ruffalo voter in this category make sure to vote in the "Would You Rather?" poll. Hey, it was Tina & Amy's idea, not ours.
Reader Comments (31)
I honestly think that sixth place in this category is Steve Carell. That BAFTA nomination feels like something that AMPAS is at least considering, particularly with Robert Duvall being nominated for being, well, Robert Duvall (and hasn't that already happened with A Civil Action?). Carell would be category fraud to the hilt, but it's not like they care about such things.
This is always my favorite category for different people's individual awards, because most of the collective internet puts more thought in here than just pick a bunch of aging white dudes in co-lead roles.
The real question is how a performance as remarkable as Ben Schnetzer's in "Pride" can't even enter the equation. It's right under everyone's noses and yet... Duvall?
But Brolin all the way. I need more pancakes.
People have been so critical of this category, but I think it's the strongest supporting actor slate in years (with or without Duvall, whatever). I feel Hawke, Ruffalo and Simmons are all incredibly deserving and would have a hard time choosing among them if I had a vote. I loved Pine, too.
By contrast, I had a tough time finding anyone I thought deserved the win among the nominees in 2012 and 2013.
The real question is how a performance as remarkable as Ben Schnetzer's in "Pride" can't even enter into the equation. It's right under everyone' noses and yet... Duvall?
But Brolin all the way. I need more pancakes.
I doubt that the infighting between mainly critics and journalists about Selma and LBJ will damage Tom Wilkinson's actual performance and chance at a nom. A lot of more people will be viewing and voting for Selma, and it's much more possible that a coattail nomination for a supporting actor in a Best Picture film will triumph over a mostly derided movie and performance. (This may be trivial but notice the almost silent applause at the Globes when Duvall's nomination was announced.)
Or maybe I just am really lying to myself about having to see The Judge
LOVE the golden curtains.
After seeing Norton yesterday i would vote for him,his look to Keaton after his 1st audition was priceless,shame he won't win and total Birdman love is tranlating to anyone else bar the screenplay.
I like Duvall in The Judge but this is not his best work but do you really hold it against an 80 odd yr old veteran getting maybe his final ever nomination,i certainly don't not after entertaining me all my life,I mean Streep seems to be there on name only this year,she was on gg and sag ballots and the film hadn't really been about for long,glad the uk saw sense,she needs to step aside cos we all know this won't be her final visit..
Is anyone going to go out on a limb with a prediction? First Mark Harris goes super predictable for Actress/Supporting Actress, now this.
I feel like Supporting Actor is primed for a complete curveball nomination replacing Duvall. I have no idea who, but I feel like that's where we'll get a completely random nomination. Best guess right now is they'll follow BAFTA and nominate Carrell there.
I would be THRILLED if Riz Ahmend could sneak into the 5th spot for Nightcrawler... His very last scene and what happens to his character was gut-wrenching....
NO DUVALL PLEASE!!!
Remember when Logan Lerman was thought to be in the mix? FURY is gone, girl.
I also think that if with or without Duvall, this is one of the strongest Best Supporting Actor line-ups we've had in a while. We all know Simmons is winning (and why not? He's terrific in the part and has had an amazing, under-recognized career up to now, so this feels right) but I would frankly have a hard time choosing between him, Hawke or Norton (I also love Ruffalo's work in Foxcatcher, but he's behind those three in my estimation). As for Duvall, I actually didn't hate The Judge (mostly because I didn't take it seriously, I enjoyed it for what it was, a silly mainstream courtroom family melodrama) and I don't mind Duvall's nomination that much, since he (and Robert Downey Jr.) make the film watchable, even though I would prefer someone else taking his spot (Tom Wilkinson would be a great choice for Selma, I saw the film a few days ago and he impressed me)...
They did just bypass Duvall after plenty of lazy heat for Get Low, we may not be able to get there a second time. Plus he has the Globe nod along with BFCA and SAG, right? Though this kind of sleepy category can also lead to the Michael Shannon-type nod too.
"I don't get why people are so high on Josh Brolin's performance," he said quietly.
Agree with both Dave and mark--I would love LOVE to see Riz nommed, but if Duvall does get it, I'll be happy for this great actor getting one more time in the spotlight.
I think whatever happens, the lineup will be strong. After last year's inclusion of Jonah Hill, anything's an improvement.
I wonder if I'm the only person in the Duvall camp here. I just think he's amazing in most of what he does, and he was probably the one great thing about The Judge. Then again, I used to kind of like those cheesy 90's films it seems to be copying, so I may be biased. I think Pine or Brolin would also be fine choices, though I couldn't follow the "plot" of Inherent Vice one iota.
The Judge is an horrible film. Terrible script and production values (the lighting...OMG!!) but I felt Duvall brought his A game (as did most everyone else to some very poorly sketched characters). It must have taken every ounce of talent and experience not to jump on the woodwork chewing train that RDJ was on and Bobby Duvall was stuck with him for most of his scenes. I have no problem with Duvall getting a nom. I don't think his is the winning performance, but it was honorable work all the same.
Riz Ahmed would be my reason to rewatch "Nightcrawler." He was a complete and fascinating surprise to me on first viewing--and by "surprise," I mean the absence of his name on any of the blogs re: this performance as a contender. Had people even watched the film, for crying out loud?
I'm surprised Eddie Redmayne didn't try to campaign for a slot here, too. What a disappointing result in an otherwise very strong category.
I agree that this category may be ripe for a "Michael Shannon" type surprise come Thursday. I haven't seen The Judge (and frankly, from all of these comments, I'm glad I didn't) but Duvall is such a legend, hugely respected, and just missed a nomination a few years ago for Get Low, that it will be hard to begrudge him if he gets that last nomination.
However, the fact that Nightcrawler has gathered so much buzz and plaudits these past few weeks (PGA nomination, lots of BAFTA recognition), I don't think a nomination for Riz Ahmed would be so off-the-wall. Rene Russo is already on the periphery, and I'm banking she also gets a nomination.
I also think Josh Brolin is still a strong possibility (actors seem to love PTA's films, hence the "surprise" nominations two years ago for all three main actors in The Master). I really hope Carell doesn't make it here. Such a shame that would be since the studio honestly campaigned him in the correct category and then Oscar category frauds him at the last minute.
I'm so disappointed that this means I have to go back and watch the second half of THE JUDGE.
The 2nd half is worse than the first but Duvall's strong perforamance keeps you watching.
Suzanne -- you're right that it is super strong as a whole. It's just weird that there was so little drama with it. it's like people saw JK and were like 'i won't even bother campaigning' because it was sleepy. but the locked foursome are all incredible. i would have more confidence in a 5th spot surprise if this sort of thing hadn't recently happened for Duvall. He really wants it obviously and he is a legend and the thing that tipped me over into betting AGAINST a surprise was Eddie Redmayne fawning on him as a legend. I was like okay... if the younger generation of actors is also in awe of him then it's going to happen
Let's just remember that Steve Carell has a real shot at stealing that fifth slot from Duvall. His BAFTA nod was the first time we had seen an opinion on his categorization from actual industry insiders, and they decided that he was Supporting. Yes, SAG voted for him in lead, but they had to: SAG always votes according to a film's campaign strategy. This is why Christoph Waltz was left out of the running two years ago for Django Unchained, because voting took place within the brief window during which Weinstein considered pushing him as a lead.
Also, this is my first time commenting here, so, hi!
On the Steve Carrell fifth slot thing... I do think it's possible, but I also could seem him canceling himself out and getting snubbed because some put him in lead and some put him in supporting.
Hello Jake - nice to have you. I do think it's possible that Carell shows up for supporting but i'm betting unlikely only because Foxcatcher doesn't have that much passion behind it. But we'll see. Maybe Duvall doesn't really either.
IMHO, 2 undersung supporting players this year that deserved a shot:
- Jeff Goldblum, LE WEEKEND: he's quick-witted and acerbic in an endearing way, but also moving and layered
- Darren E Burrows, LOVE IS STRANGE: manages to convey years worth of connections with Tomei, Lighthow, and his son in brief, taciturn scenes
Haven't seen "Whiplash" yet. And I'm sure you - and the rest of the world - are right in assuming Simmons is a lock for the win. The acclaim is just too unanimous. But it's still hard to believe his performance could actually outshine Norton's.That man is mind-blowingly good in "Birdman". Haven't made much of an effort to catch "The Judge" either. So I can't really comment on Duvall's work in it. But I imagine he's fine - seeing as splendid is the level he usually performs at.
From the films I 've seen, I'd nominate:
EDWARD NORTON "Birdman" (for the win)
PAUL JESSON (as Timothy Spall's doting dad in "Mr. Turner"
ETHAN HAWKE "Boyhood" (by far the best thing in a film I - otherwise
didn't connect with)
PATRICK D'ASSUMCAO "Stranger By the Lake" ( the Depardieu-ish man,
trenchant and touching,
who always sat apart)
VINCENT PIAZZA "Jersey Boys" a bull's eye performance
in a misfire of a movie
with additional shout-outs for Antoine-Olivier Pilon in "Mommy" , Ruffalo in "Foxcatcher"
and Emjay Anthony giving the best juvenile performance I've seen this year (in "Chef")
There could be a complete WTF surprise in the Supp Act category this year. Remember William Hurt for his 2 minutes in A history of violence? Or Nick Nolte in Warrior? I don't think either of them were talked about in their respective years.
I would love to see someone in Pride get the 5th slot. Bill Nighy maybe?
BVR - That's surprising, since I thought Burrows was easily the worst part of "Love is Strange." He just did nothing, had no personality, expressions, choices or charisma. A total void/dud. I understand it's easy to get outshined in scenes with Tomei and Lithgow, but I had no idea how this guy got cast.
Can I play devil's advocate for a moment and raise some points that might make you less disappointed in the possible Duvall nomination? Note: I haven't actually seen "The Judge" yet.
Here we go:
1) He will be nominated for a movie that apparently is very bad. This is a good thing! The Academy SHOULD be able to notice good performances even if the surrounding vehicle isn't Oscar-worthy (or even remotely watchable, according to many who have seen it).
2) He will be nominated for a movie that has no real Oscar campaign. This is a good thing! Movies and performers should be nominated regardless of how much money they spend on campaigns or much critical buzz they accumulate.
3) He will be nominated for a performance that he hasn't really campaigned for. This is a good thing! The academy SHOULD recognize performances even if the actor, for whatever reason, can't schmooze his way to a nomination in the months leading up to voting day.
4) He will be nominated for a movie that didn't do well at the box office. This is a good thing! The Academy SHOULD be recognizing performances from smaller, under-seen or otherwise ignored films if the performance is still worthy (he says while wondering where Tomei is in the Supporting Actress conversation...).
5) He will be nominated for a movie that will probably get zero other nominations. This is a good thing! Remember last year how everyone was complaining that most of the major nominees came from the same 9-10 films? We should celebrate the nominees that squeak in from otherwise un-nominated films.
I know, I know, this seems like I'm working really hard to justify a nomination that a) hasn't even happened yet and b) is for a performance I haven't seen and c) everyone has already deemed fairly unworthy. And yes, this nomination might block out other worthy nominees (oh Ahmed, I look forward to seeing more of your work). I just thought I'd try to suggest some ideas for why this possible nomination (and Wilkinson could still happen in Duvall's place) really might not be as bad as some think.
DJDeeJay: Duvall and especially the film are campaigning. This is RDJ's new production company and they recognize that if they want future investors, they need to score and nothing scores better than Oscar notice.
As Nat has said several times, no one else has really tried in this category outside the three top choices so it was wide open. That may change for AMPAS as Selma was too late for all the others and Inherent Vice has been out long enough for everyone to realize that no body gets it so it's ok to pick the pieces/performances you like. I don't think Duvall would be this prominent in the conversation if anyone else had been out there pushing.