Special Report: Spirit Awards Preview/Predictions
Tuesday, November 17, 2015 at 12:00PM 
?????The Spirit Award nominations are announced a week from today. Here's special guest and our podcast cohort Joe Reid to preview/predict the nominations.
The 2015 Film Independent Spirit Awards will announce their nominations next Tuesday, the earliest full slate of nominations (the Gothams can call me when they get supporting categories) and for many the clearest opening bell for awards season. After them, the critics awards start rolling in, then the Golden Globe nominations, and by then we're off to the races. I have always found the Spirits to be the most difficult to predict and the most fun. Partly because they happen so early in the season but also partly because the qualifications are always just a bit mysterious.
A reminder, per the Spirits' rules and regs: to qualify, a film must be an American film made for under $20 million, and have either been released in theaters in 2015 or played one of six major U.S. festivals (Sundance, Los Angeles, New Directors/New Films, New York, Telluride, Toronto). Of course, even with those rules, there are splittable hairs.
Will Anomalisa finish first with the Spirits?
What makes a film "American"? I took a handy screenshot:
So former Best Feature nominee Sin Nombre qualified because American Cary Fukunaga wrote and directed it. And former Best Feature winner The Artist qualified because it was set in America and ... distributed by the Weinstein company? See, it's already a gray area. What does "financed" mean? The soft math of Hollywood is also why it's hard to predict what will and won't qualify based on budget. Folks like Harvey Weinstein have gotten very good at getting the numbers to look like what they need to look like to qualify. Just ask Silver Linings Playbook and its $21 million budget.
The other thing about the Spirit awards as of late is that they've been increasingly overlapping with the Oscars. Where the tented Malibu beachfront awards were once a purposeful alternative to the Academy's festivities, recent years have felt more like a dress rehearsal for eventual Oscar-winning actors. In the past two years, seven of the eight Oscar winners also won their respective category at the Spirits, and Michael Keaton likely came very close to making it a perfect eight-for-eight. Now, this isn't just about the Spirits going mainstream. The Oscars have, in the same span, gone a bit more indie, with the Prestige Indie strata of films (your Fox Searchlights, your Weinstein Companies) becoming a subgenre unto themselves, one to which both the Oscars and the Spirits have found themselves drawn. This year, the available pool for this subgenre is noticeably more shallow than in years past. I don't think it's a statement on the quality of the films, really. This just feels like a year where the Oscars may drift more towards bigger, pricier studio fare like The Martian, The Revenant, Bridge of Spies, et cetera.
Still, There's essentially a quintet of films that may end up dominating the Oscars/Spirits crossover. Five films with one-word titles: Room, Spotlight, Brooklyn*, Carol, and Anomalisa. It's tempting to simply pepper my Spirits predictions with these films and let the rest of the chips fall where they may, but we know from experience that the Spirits are not sweepers when it comes to nominations. And the real fun is in predicting those left-field nominations anyway. So with an eye towards keeping that balance, here's what I would look for come next Tuesday.
*About Brooklyn: its director is Irish, its writer is British, it was produced by Irish/UK companies, it was distributed by American Fox Searchlight, and it was set partly in America and partly in Ireland. You tell me if it's eligible!
Will BROOKLYN qualify? If it does expect several nominations
BEST FEATURE
Anomalisa
Brooklyn
Carol
Room
Spotlight
Here's where I'm going to play it safe. It helps that the two true indies** that stand the best shot at top nominations — Diary of a Teenage Girl and Tangerine — will have their own categories to dominate. (Tangerine is a shoo-in for the Cassavetes Award for best film made for under $500,000; I won't be previewing it because I haven't been able to get reliable budget figures for the year's smallest films, but trust: Tangerine has it locked up.) POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Love & Mercy, Results, Beasts of No Nation, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
FYC: It doesn't have half the heat that Frances Ha did the year it nabbed a Best Feature nomination (though curiously no Best Actress citation), but Mistress America remains one of my favorite movies of 2015, and I would love for it to get some love here.
** I hate the term "true indie" and hope to not use it more than just this once, though I think there are films that are perceives as more indie than others, and that's fair.
Tangerine is a likely contender in multiple categories
BEST DIRECTOR
Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson - Anomalisa
Cary Joji Fukunaga - Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes - Carol
Tom McCarthy - Spotlight
Sean Baker - Tangerine
It's tough to imagine they'll pass up the chance to honor indie stalwarts and superstars like Haynes, Fukunaga, and Kaufman, and even if I worry he might get aced out by the bigger names at the Oscars, this is where Tom McCarthy really should get the most love, after how great he's been for American indies ever since The Station Agent. POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Lenny Abrahamson (Room); Andrew Bujalski (Results); Alex Garland (Ex Machina)
FYC: One way in which the Spirits have definitely become more like the Oscars is that genre doesn't have much place in the top categories, because David Robert Mitchell so deserves a nod for the creativity and tension in It Follows.
BEST FIRST FEATURE
Diary of a Teenage Girl
Ex Machina
The Gift
James White
The Witch
This is a very strong category this year! Diary of a Teenage Girl is the class of the category, but it'll be interesting to see it go up against the much higher-profile Ex Machina (a film that might not qualify here, but it's set in the States and produced in part by Scott Rudin; consider this one written in pencil). POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Lou Howe's Gabriel; James Vanderbilt qualifies for Truth, but I bet its low critical opinion (58% on RT) kills it.
FYC: John Maclean's Slow West, which did well at Sundance and then really lost all its steam, which is too bad, because it's good.
Christopher Abbot will almost certainly be nominated for James White
BEST MALE LEAD
Christopher Abbott - James White
Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
Paul Dano - Love & Mercy
Andrew Garfield - 99 Homes
Michael Shannon - 99 Homes
I figured Garfield and Shannon would go lead/supporting for 99 Homes, but Shannon's citation at the Gothams over Garfield now gives me pause. Notice the near-total absence of realistic Oscar contenders in this race. Should make for a fun category after weeks of being pummelled by DiCaprio/Damon/Fassbender Oscar buzz come February. POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Abraham Attah (Beasts of No Nation); Peter Sarsgaard (Experimenter); Rory Culkin (Gabriel); Chiwetel Ejiofor (Z for Zachariah)
FYC: Indie comedy is a strange beast that can often seem like mixing and matching among the same dozen or so cast members, but I hope voters take a real look at Jason Sudekis in Sleeping with Other People and Adam Scott in The Overnight.
Lily has some awards life left in her for "Grandma"
BEST FEMALE LEAD
Cate Blanchett - Carol
Brie Larson - Room
Bel Powley - Diary of a Teenage Girl
Saoirse Ronan - Brooklyn
Lily Tomlin - Grandma
In contrast to the male leads, this category is positively over-stacked and wildly competitive, with the only sure bets being Blanchett and Larson. As previously discussed, Saoirse Ronan and Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina) might not end up eligible, which frees up some slots for an actress like Bel Powley, who initially seemed destined to be overshadowed by her more famous competitors, but I have seen so much groundswell for Diary over the last few weeks that now I think she won't be. In another year, both Blythe Danner (I'll See You in My Dreams) and Lily Tomlin would make it; this year, I'd slightly prefer the former but I'm betting on the latter, though if both quasi-foreign films don't make it, perhaps both. POSSIBLE SPOILERS: In another year, you'd see any number of these women as likely nominees. Fate sure can be fickle. Sorry, Mya Taylor and Kitana Kiki Rodriguez (Tangerine); Cynthia Nixon (James White); Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back); Patricia Clarkson (Learning to Drive); Arielle Holmes (Heaven Knows What); Cobie Smulders (Results).
FYC: I'm kind of up and down on her as an actress but I really loved Margot Robbie in Z for Zachariah. Again, "in any other year ..."
Dance, Oscar, dance!
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Oscar Isaac - Ex Machina
Kevin Corrigan - Results
Jason Segel - The End of the Tour
Idris Elba - Beasts of No Nation
Mark Ruffalo - Spotlight
Again, Isaac might not be eligible, though part of me feel like Ex Machina will get snuck in through a back door of eligibility for no other reason than to get Oscar Isaac this nomination. Kind of like how Magic Mike was a major-studio release but nobody cared because we all wanted McConaughey to get that nomination somewhere. It just feels right! Also, while Ruffalo and Michael Keaton may end up being the anointed Spotlight performers to campaign for Oscars, I wouldn't be surprised if the Spirits went digging through that cast and came up with Stanley Tucci or Liev Schrieber instead. On a similar tip, Jacob Tremblay (Room) feels like one of those areas where Oscar voters go for something that Spirits voters might find a bit too campaign-y. If he does get nominated, though, that Oscar nod is a done deal. POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Emory Cohen or Domhnall Gleeson (Brooklyn); Adam Driver (While We're Young); Sam Elliott (Grandma or I'll See You in My Dreams); Ben Mendelsohn (Mississippi Grind).
FYC: Awards attention is rightfully falling to the actresses, but I'd love for the Spirits to take half a step back and be the ones to recognize Kyle Chandler for his very wonderful work in Carol.
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Joan Allen - Room
Elizabeth Banks - Love & Mercy
Katie Dickey - The Witch
Rooney Mara - Carol
Kristen Wiig - Diary of a Teenage Girl
Less crowded here than in Female Lead, hence the presence of fraudulent Rooney Mara. The Spirits don't seem any more inclined to buck the preferred campaign category placements than anyone else, that Will Forte nomination for Nebraska is any indication. POSSIBLE SPOILERS: It's a crazy thought, but I wouldn't be so shocked if Jennifer Jason Leigh got a nod for Anomalisa, both as a bid for attention and because that film (which is ADORED in some circles) puts so much of a spotlight on the quality of her voice. Also: Olivia Cooke (Me and Earl and the Dying Girl); Julie Walters (Brooklyn); Ellen Page (Freeheld); Rachel McAdams (Spotlight).
FYC: It's almost certainly not a movie that will end up on awards radar screens, which is too bad, because The Final Girls has reserves of creativity and heart that few films do, much less horror comedies. But I'm not kidding when I say that Malin Akerman gives a layered, crucial performance in that film, and I hope she's at least given a look.
Will Heaven Knows What be knocked out by larger films or will they go more indie this year?
BEST SCREENPLAY
Anomalisa
Heaven Knows What
Results
Spotlight
Tangerine
The Spirits tend to keep the Feature and Screenplay categories from becoming too lockstep, which is nice. It also keeps the category incredibly competitive for nominations. Movies like Heaven Knows What and Tangerine, which will likely be aced out by bigger films in the acting categories should stand a decent shot at nominations here. But let's not pretend like this isn't the category where I'm most likely to go 0-for-5. ...Well, 1-for-5. There's no way that Anomalisa misses. POSSIBLE SPOILERS: Brooklyn, Love & Mercy, I'll See You in My Dreams, Mistress America, and Dope.
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Diary of a Teenage Girl
The End of the Tour
Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Room
Welcome to Me
Carol and Room should both be interesting cases in this category. Both certainly qualify, though the nominations here usually come from much smaller films. Still, Nebraska got in a couple years ago, so maybe on the rare occasions that the heavier hitters have first-time screenwriters, it fits. POSSIBLE SPOILERS: James White, Trumbo, The Witch, I Smile Back, and Gabriel.
What are you hoping to see when the Spirit Award nominations are announced next Tuesday?
Reader Comments (34)
I love the Spirits for being the only awards show that recognized the best performance of last year, Cotillard in The Immigrant <3
sound reasoning on many of these Joe. The only thing i'd take issue with is no Cynthia Nixon. I'd be surprised if she missed as I think they'll deem her supporting and there's less competition there. She's crucial to the narrative of course and a lead in that one way but she is missing for long stretches of the movie making the supporting call not all that controversial even to people like me who are sticklers about this sort of thing :)
I love these predictions. I wanna echo Nathaniel's call for Nixon and I agree they'll put her in supporting. The Mexico sequence of that movie in particular (my least favorite part) where she doesn't appear is what tips her from lead to supporting in terms of screentime.
I could also see James Ransone getting in Supporting Male for Tangerine. It's a brief, but important part and I think that movie's going to show up very well in general.
Hope Me and Earl and the Dying Girl gets some love.
Is Room eligible? Isn't it considered a Canadian/Irish film or is Canada close enough to being an American film?
I'm curious to see how/if some of these qualify as non-US productions, too. Even the phrasing in the regulations leaves plenty of room for manipulation and interpretation.
Also curious to see what gets the Robert Altman ensemble prize and special distinction prize that they give to a film above the budget restriction.
Would be nice to see The Witch recognized. I had forgotten that festival movies were eligible for the Spirit Awards. Definitely worthy of nominations for First Feature Film and Katie Dickey.
I'd also love to see Faults get some love. Or was it eligible last year and just missed the cut?
I'm hoping for Tangerine all the way. I'm especially enthusiastic about James Ransone for Supporting Actor. He steals the movie, and I really really hope he gets a nomination (and wins! but first things first); Also, isn't Mya Taylor being pushed for Supporting Actress? If so, I'd bet on her to get a nomination
Also, if Ex Machina is eligible, I'd like to see Domhnall Gleeson get recognition as Best Actor. His performance has gotten little attention, but I felt he was excellent.
Alexander Starsgard in Diary of a Teenage Girl and Laura Dern in 99 Homes should also be given considerateion.
Excited for Tangerine, Segal, Lily and all things Diary.
Is Clouds of Sils Maria eligible this year?
Cynthia Nixon isn't even 'ambiguous' but well and truly supporting in James White. Let's not go into overdrive on this whole category fraud thing and start pronouncing every moderately prominent role a lead by default.
SanFranCinema: I was also wondering about Clouds of Sils Maria. If yes, I'm rooting for it, or would it only be eligible as Foreign? Speaking of which The Second Mother is a masterpiece which should be eligible, too.
Toronto is an American film festival? And all these years I thought I was a Canadian. Go figure!
What a banner year the Spirits would have if these came to pass! Especially that best first feature category. Wowza!
I really really hated Results, sadly, but am hoping if spirit nominating committee feels the same way, more love for James White, Tangerine and genre fare like It Follows sneaks in. Also secretly hoping for some love for Too Late, which might not be on most people's radar, but it premiered at LA Film Fest (same organization) and every so often a film independent darling like that can sneak in and get some much deserved attention.
Love Green Room and The Lobster but guessing those will be eligible next year, right? But The Witch for this year?
Love for It Follows or The Final Girls would be amaaaazing. Hoping Goodnight Mommy gets in there for international. Independent horror needs to be acknowledged way more.
They may just give SPOTLIGHT an ensemble acting award like the Gothams. If I recall, that's what both groups did last year with FOXCATCHER.
Remember last year's Actress category at the Spirits? Apart from Julianne Moore in STILL ALICE, they were practically the only group to nominate Marion Cotillard in THE IMMIGRANT, Rinko Kikuchi in KUMIKO, THE TREASURE HUNTER, Jenny Slate in OBVIOUS CHILD and Tilda Swinton in ONLY LOVERS LEFT ALIVE.
I hope there will be some similarly left-of-field nominations next week.
Cynthia Nixon FTW (Supporting).
Looking at this list, I'm realizing my personal awards are going to look a lot more like the Spirits than the Oscars.
I don't want to jump on the category fraud theme but I think Ben Mendelsohn should be considered lead for Mississippi Grind.
He inhabits the role of one of lifes perpetual losers; mesmerising and repulsive and consumed with self-pity it's hard to imagine any performance this year topping Ben's work. It's just a great shame it's not entering into the conversation.
I had zero use for Results, despite loving the actors involved, and would be frankly baffled to see it represented here. Many more deserving movies
I love the ISA, as they introduced me to one of my all-time favorite performances ever (Adam Scott in "The Vicious Kind").
I'd really love to see Sullivan Stapleton and "Cut Snake" get in, but sadly, it's a primarily based/funded Australian film.
Cynthia Nixon is supporting
Would love to add Sir Patrick Stewart in MATCH for a potential Best Male Lead nominee. He's excellent in the film (in addition to the other two leads - Carla Gugino and Matthew Lilliard), and it should be eligible!
Yes, Mya Taylor is being pushed for supporting.
Is Mr. Holmes considered too "not American"? If not, Ian McKellen all the way.
And this idea that only one "actress of a certain age" will make the final cut here and elsewhere is frustrating and insulting. Why can't/shouldn't Blythe Danner and Lily Tomlin both be nominated?
Tell me how Jason Segel is even *remotely* a supporting actor in "The End of the Tour," a biopic ABOUT the man he plays, and I'll show you my Nobel Peace Prize. In fact, do the same thing for Jacob Tremblay, who is one of the most unequivocally leading actors in any film from 2015.
This has gotten way out of hand and should not be tolerated.
No reason at all why they shouldn't, Kirby. As for why they maybe won't, I think I gave a decent answer: very tough competition.
When did the Gothams eschew their supporting awards? The only reason I knew they existed is because they nominated Channing Tatum for "A Guide to Recognizing Your Saints". Which I then saw, and disliked, but OH CHANNING.
BEST FEMALE LEAD - Rooney Mara (Carol)
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE - Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Please...
I think Nixon and Mya Taylor will get in supporting. And I definitely think IT FOLLOWS will get some love. That movie has quite a bit of respect built, I think.
I'd love to see something for QUEEN OF EARTH. Maybe Elisabeth Moss for Actress if they're feeling adventurous? Could we get something for NASTY BABY, too?
As for the Cassavetes award... based purely on critical receptions and feelings around certain titles and the sort of movies they typically go for I'd guess the nominees as TANGERINE, HEAVEN KNOWS WHAT, WILD CANARIES, TAKE ME TO THE RIVER and either ADDICTED TO FRESNO or FORT TILDEN. I mean, I could obviously be wrong on all five, but that's what I'd take a wild guess at the nominees being.
Fort Tilden, that is a good call.
Jakey -- they've never had supporting. I think he was nominated for their "breakthrough" category
We need to get Ex Machina back in the Oscar conversation. And Oscar and Alicia for their stunning work.
Crossing fingers for Tangerine and Ex Machina.
Hope Isaiah Washington's name is announced for Supporting Male in Blackbird. You rarely see a Black father (especially one with a gay son) portrayed with such complexity and emotional depth. A gem of a performance.
I loved James White. It will be a great tragedy if Cynthia and Christopher Abbott don't get nominated. As someone said before, the ISA are like my personal award show. Those two performances are my favorite by far this year.Cynthia Nixon for the win!
This is a very comprehensive breakdown. I'll have to keep this list in mind as I plan out my award season viewing! Fortunately I've already seen a few of these but there's always more out there! So now we just have to see how the nominations turn out!