How Many Oscars Will ______ Win?
Sunday, February 1, 2015 at 10:00PM 
This weekend was a biggie in terms of below the line awards. The Imitation Game won the USC Scripter Prize which goes to movies adapted from literature (and the source material author also wins this prize). The Art Directors guild chose Birdman for Contemporary Film, and The Grand Budapest Hotel for Period (as well as Guardians of the Galaxy for Fantasy). Meanwhile the Editors gave their "Eddies" to Boyhood for Dramas and The Grand Budapest Hotel for comedies (in addition to prizes for The LEGO Movie in Animated and Citizen Four for Documentaries)
All of this has me wondering if its The Grand Budapest Hotel rather than Boyhood or Birdman that will take home the most Oscars on February 22nd if not Best Picture. It's got a decent shot at four or five statues: Costumes, Production Design, Screenplay, Score, and Makeup & Hair. Of those Screenplay is the longest shot since Birdman vs Boyhood will be tough to squeeze between to nab the Original Screenplay gold.
Perhaps it will be a spread the wealth kind of year with every Best Picture winning something. Like so...
How many oscars will The Grand Budapest Hotel win?
- Boyhood (4 or 5) Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Editing (and maybe Screenplay?)
- Grand Budapest (3 or 4) Costumes, Production Design, Makeup & Hair (and maybe Score?)
- Birdman (2 or 3) Screenplay, Cinematography (and maybe Actor?)
- American Sniper (2) Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
- Theory of Everything (1 or 2) Actor (and maybe Score?)
- The Imitation Game (1 or 2) Adapted Screenplay (and maybe Score?)
- Whiplash (1 or 2) Supporting Actor (and maybe Adapted Screenplay?)
- Selma (1) Song
(As you can see I'm stumped about who might win Best Score. I can see it going any which way.)
Not that there's ever a year where every Best Picture nominee wins something now that we have so many Best Picture nominees. Someone or someones usually go home empty-handed - even if they have come into the big night with a ton of nominations. But there's a first time for everything and it could happen.
What'cha think?
Reader Comments (28)
That seems about right. I hope American Sniper goes home empty handed, though.
Theory is probably going home empty-handed.
Theory of Everything goes home empty handed.
Boyhood, 3
Picture
Director
Supporting Actress
Birdman, 3
Actor
Original Screenplay
Cinematography
Grand Budapest Hotel, 4
Costume Design
Production Design
Make Up
Original Score
American Sniper, 3
Film Editing
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Imitation Game, 1
Adapted Screenplay
Whiplash, 1
Supporting Actor
Selma, 1
Song
Theory of Everything, 0
Not sure if anything goes home empty-handed, and I agree that Grand Budapest could be the biggest winner, but the fact that Imitation Game is winning awards for its WRITING, of all things, is absurd!
I guess sometimes it is the screenplays that we imagined so much more of that yada yada yada.
Boyhood wins four.
I think Grand Budapest will win Screenplay, so it wins either 4 or 5 (I'm not sure about Makeup or Score)
But then Birdman wins... only one? Maybe two, if it wins actor?
I think Theory is winning both Score and Actor. I would love for Budapest to win score, but every time a composer is nominated twice in this category, he loses, so I doubt Desplat is taking home the Oscar this year. And Theory has the loudest score in the category, which is usually an asset here.
That said, I think people are seriously underestimating Budapest in Original Screenplay. Wes Anderson fits in perfectly with the series of auteurs they've honored in the screenplay categories for having a unique, singular vision but creating films that are frankly too offbeat win the big prizes (Sofia Coppola, Spike Jonze, Jane Campion, Tarantino 2x, etc.). I don't know why so many people are predicting Birdman to win here - the screenplay is Birdman's biggest weakness (it's the main reason I didn't like the film).
I think that whether Boyhood, Birdman, or even Grand Budapest wins, it will be a bizarre Best Picture win (not unworthy, by any means, but still bizarre). None of them fit your typical Best Picture winner, which is a good thing.
Also, please don't say Redmayne will get it. I was getting so excited for either Keaton or Fie....oh, wait, just the first, since the second was an UNSPEAKABLE snub.
Interstellar could win score, right? They haven't given it to Hans Zimmer in a long time, and they seem to like rewarding epic, effects-movie scores lately (Gravity, Life of Pi).
I want to say Grand Budapest will take a wealth, but I fear it won't happen..
It does look like this will be the first year since the category's expansion when every BP nominee wins something.
I wouldn't be surprised if Budapest wins Cinematography instead of Birdman. Sometimes they simply go with the movie they think is the prettiest in that category. And it would be the third time for Lubezki to be the favorite, but lose to a movie that also wins Production Design.
Score really is the hardest category to predict. All the nominees except for Mr. Turner seem like possible winners.
It would be ODD if Redmayne loses Actor though right? With Globes, SAG, and (most likely) BAFTA going his way. It'll be interesting nonetheless.
Given the industry awards so far, I'd actually be surprised if Birdman loses both best picture and director.
Are we really settling on living in a world where The Imitation Game is the frontrunner for Adapted Screenplay?
Boyhood (3): Director, Picture, Supporting Actress
Grand Budapest (3): Costumes, Production Design, Makeup & Hair
Birdman (3): Actor, Screenplay, Cinematography
Whiplash (3): Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Editing
American Sniper (2): Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
The Imitation Game (1): Score
Selma (1): Song
Theory of Everything (0)
PREDICTIONS AS OF FEB 2, 2015
____________________________________
PICTURE: Boyhood
DIRECTOR: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
ACTOR: Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
ACTRESS: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
SUPPORTING ACTOR: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: The Grand Budapest Hotel
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Imitation Game
CINEMATOGRAPHY: The Grand Budapest Hotel
PRODUCTION DESIGN: The Grand Budapest Hotel
COSTUME DESIGN: The Grand Budapest Hotel
MAKEUP: The Grand Budapest Hotel
ORIGINAL SCORE: The Theory of Everything
SONG: "Glory", from Selma
FILM EDITING: Boyhood
SOUND: American Sniper
SOUND MIXING: American Sniper
VISUAL EFFECTS: Interstellar
ANIMATED FEATURE: How to Train Your Dragon 2
FOREIGN FILM: Ida
Nat, before the expansion, there ere plenty of years in which every Best Picture nominee won an Oscar. Here are some lineups:
2007: Atonement (Score), Juno (Original Screenplay), Michael Clayton (Supporting Actress), No Country for Old Men (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay), There Will Be Blood (Actor, Cinematography)
2006: Babel (Score), The Departed (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing), Letters from Iwo Jime (Sound Editing), Little Miss Sunshine (Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay), The Queen (Actress)
2004: The Aviator (Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Art Direction, Costumes), Finding Neverland (Score), Million Dollar Baby (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor), Ray (Actor, Sound Mixing), Sideways (Adapted Screenplay)
1997: As Good as it Gets (Actor, Actress), The Full Monty (Score- Comedy/Musical), Good Will Hunting (Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay), L.A. Confidential (Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay), Titanic (11 Oscars including Picture and Director).
As for this year, if it's the first expanded field in which all the Best Picture nominees win something, that will be something to celebrate (very spread-the-wealth).
By the way, Suzanne, Birdman is considered the frontrunner for Original Screenplay because it won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award for Original Screenplay. Whether you like it or not doesn't factor into it (it's a mistake we all make when trying to predict the Oscars, using our own taste to try and predict the Academy members' tastes). I still believe Boyhood will win Picture and Director and Eddie Redmayne will take Best Actor (playing Stephen Hawking, I believe, will prove irresistible to the Academy).
Boyhood
Picture
Director
Original Screenplay
Supporting Actress
Birdman
Cinematography
Grand Budapest Hotel
Costumes
Make Up
Production Design
Original Score
American Sniper
Adapted Screenplay
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Editing
Whiplash
Supporting Actor
Selma
Song
The Imitaion Game
Nothing, I Tell You! Nothing!
What i hope or:
Selma - Picture, Song
Grand Budapest - Director, Original Screenplay, Costume, Production Design, Score
Theory of Everything - Actor
Boyhood - Supporting Actress, Editing
Birdman - Sound Editing, Sound Mixing
Captain America - Visual Effects
Guardiand of the Galaxy - Make Up
Ida - Cinematography
Foxcatcher - Supporting Actor
Wild - Actress
Inherent Vice - Adapted Screenplay (well, i haven't seen it yet.. but it has to be better than those other four, no? )
It's worth mentioning that in 2012, eight of the nine best picture candidates went home with an oscar. This year, there are eight best picture nominees.
I also think a lot more categories are in flux.
Interesting that after picking up both the PGA and SAG, nobody thinks Birdman has a chance in taking Picture.
I say Redmayne could win Actor, but Keaton has been *everywhere* recently. He's definitely gunning for it. I do think though that Theory wins Score.
Jason Travis, Up in the Air also won the Globe and the CCFA for Best Screenplay, so those awards aren't necessarily predictive. In fact, it's a little silly to base Oscar predictions on awards where industry voters aren't voting.
Oops, sorry, that comment was meant for Richter Scale!
Boyhood (I think 4)
Birdman (I think 1/maybe 4)
The Theory of Everything (I think 1/maybe 2)
Still Alice (I think 1)
Whiplash (I think 1/maybe 3)
Grand Budapest Hotel (I think 5/maybe 7)
Interstellar (I think 1)
American Sniper (I think 2)
Ida (I think 1)
Selma (I think 1)
The Imitation Game (I think 1)
Leviathan (maybe 1)
Picture
Boyhood
maybe: Birdman
Actor
Eddie Redmayne
maybe: Michael Keaton
Actress
Julianne Moore
Actor in a Supporting Role
J.K. Simmons
Actress in a Supporting Role
Patricia Arquette
Directing
Richard Linklater
maybe: Wes Anderson
Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Grand Budapest Hotel
maybe: Birdman
Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
The Imitation Game
maybe: Whiplash
Cinematography
Birdman
maybe: Grand Budapest Hotel
Original Score
Grand Budapest Hotel
maybe: The Theory of Everything
Original Song
Selma
Editing
Boyhood
maybe: Whiplash
Production Design
Grand Budapest Hotel
Costume Design
Grand Budapest Hotel
Makeup and Hairstyling
Grand Budapest Hotel
Sound Mixing
American Sniper
Sound Editing
American Sniper
Visual Effects
Interstellar
Foreign Language
Ida
maybe: Leviathan
Birdman (3) - Picture, Screenplay, Cinematography
Boyhood (3) - Director, Supporting Actress, Film Editing
The Grand Budapest Hotel (3) - Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling
American Sniper (2) - Sound Mixing, Sound Editing
The Theory of Everything (2) - Best Actor, Best Score
Whiplash (2) - Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay
And none for The Imitation Game bye.
I wouldn't count out the Glen Campbell song.
Henry: I wouldn't count out any of the song nominees, but I give the edge to Selma right now because I'm an eternal optimist.
Evan: The only reason I'm saying Boyhood for Best Picture right now and not Birdman is (again) my optimism for Michael Keaton. If I were going with Redmayne, I'd be going with Birdman.
And I think Desplat is winning for one of his nominated scores this year, which means (according to my other predictions) that either Theory or Imitation would have to go home empty-handed. I think Budapest will take home three other statues and Theory gets a donut. Again, optimism.
Still got a few weeks to chew on this.
Best Actor is exciting for all the wrong reasons.
Suzanne, I didn't say that's the reason it's the frontrunner, I'm saying it's the reason it's Considered the frontrunner. The last three years there has been a trend that the Screenplay winner at the Golden Globes has won Original Screenplay at the Oscars (Midnight in PAris, Django Unchained, Her), and all of them won the CCFA for Best Original Screenplay as well (the two that were eligible for WGA also won there). So, with that trend, it stands to reason that Birdman would be predicted for Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars (I'm still feeling a Grand Budapest Hotel win there, just because I feel they'll want to give Wes Anderson something, but I wouldn't bet on it)...