Emmy History, "Empire" Heat, and the Super Competitive 'Best Drama Actress' Race
Wednesday, March 18, 2015 at 2:11PM 
The two hour season finale of Empire, a show I like to call "The Taraji P Henson Variety Hour," hits tonight and though Emmy nominee balloting is literally three months away (June 15th-26th) so there's plenty of time to weigh the options and discuss them, the Empire team is already working hard to win votes. Taraji P Henson & Terence Howard feel like likely players in the Drama races. I doubt Emmy will ignore the leads in a new primetime soap network drama this buzzy and popular. The 1980s were unquestionably the heyday of this genre of television (with Dallas, Dynasty, The Colbys, Knots Landing and Falcon Crest all popular) though it's probably worth noting that the actors within this genre have had an easier time landing nominations then their series have. Dallas and Dynasty, the two most popular shows of this genre in the history of television, were only up for the top prize three times between them. Why, you ask?
Emmy history and the historic Best Actress after the jump...
In the 1980s when the modern soap was at its most popular Television Academy was deep in the snare of three types of shows: cops, detectives, and hospitals (Hill Street Blues, Cagney & Lacey, Magnum P.I., Murder She Wrote, St Elsewhere, China Beach, were all huge with Emmy) only breaking that daisy chain by, uh, reinforcing it with a fourth link, the legal drama (L.A. Law, The Practice, Law & Order). For twenty years -- and this no exaggeration whatsoever -- it was hard to get arrested unless you were one of these four types of shows or you were an undeniably huge buzzy hit (like outlier thirtysomething). The soap began a long drawn out revival by way of youth aimed shows -Beverly Hills 90210, Melrose Place, and the entire CW network but it's never regained its previous immense popularity with adults unless it was disguised as comedy (Desperate Housewives) until Downton Abbey (it qualifies, don'cha think?) and Empire with a little Revenge as warm up I suppose though that show never quite broke out into a big deal; Madeline Stowe was game at least!
But we digress. Soaps have had trouble because they didn't fit into those four types of shows that Emmy dubs instantly respectable and therefore watches and often loves. In the Aughts, only through the hard work of HBO's zeitgeist rise and new Emmy rut The West Wing was this daisy chain broken for good... and even then only gradually.
SHOCKING HISTORY BUT TRUE
It wasn't until Emmy fell out of love with The Good Wife and Dexter that we finally broke this Emmy rut. 2012 & 2013 were the first consecutive Drama Series lineups without at least one representative of either cop, hospital, or legal dramas and often more than one of those since the 1960s if you can believe it when "spy/adventure" series and anthologies were closer to the norm. Can you believe it?
The 2012/2013 lineup was like so...
- Boardwalk Empire (2012) / House of Cards (2013)
- Breaking Bad
- Downton Abbey
- Game of Thrones
- Homeland
- Mad Men
True Detective spoiled the "what is this variety?" party last year, returning the cop drama to Emmy's exclusive club. (Emmy doesn't only get stuck in ruts with shows they can't let go of, they get stuck in entire genres.) The Emmy landscape has (thankfully) had more diversity of genre in the contemporary TV landscape. That's partially because there are so many more programs to choose from but their personality hasn't really changed all that much. That absolute devotion to procedurals has now shapeshifted to become absolute devotion to whatever HBO and other cable channels have on offer; networks be gone! So pray that HBO and Showtime don't decide that they really need to devote their resources to is more cop, hospital, and lawyer shows. Pray hard!
EMPIRE AND BEST ACTRESS
Some people think that the Emmy race for Drama Actress is going to be 50% African American this year which would be a real break from tradition. As with Oscar history, Best Actress is the Emmy category most resistant to African American actors. As with Oscar history, this has a lot to do with what types of movies/shows that the studios greenlight. With the huge triple success of Scandal, How To get Away With Murder and Empire we can safely expect this to change in the near future since Hollywood follows the money. TV is even more repetitive (and faster) than movies in trying to copycat its successes so expect a lot of greenlights for series starring alpha personalitied black women real soon. Nevertheless I don't expect that Best Drama Actress will feature Kerry/Taraji/Viola this year. My guess is that the Kerry Washington / Scandal party is running out of steam now that so many newer cable shows have fresh buzz and now that Viola's Slumming Procedural and The Taraji Variety Hour are where it's at for Network TV.
I'd break things down like so but I am no television expert so perhaps you'll want to chime in and reconfigure this ranked battle for the six nominations? When it comes to BEST ACTRESS (ANY VARIETY) I know you're all quite opinionated.
TWO SURE THINGS (?) - THE TRUE BATTLE
There's no precedence for a battle like this but then there's also never been a time when two of the most popular dramas on air were headlined by former African American Oscar nominated women. I'd be shocked if either were denied a nomination and I think one of them will win.
TIER 2 REIGNING QUEENS - CAN THEY STAY IN THE THRONE ROOM?
Julianne Marguiles and Claire Danes are the only women still on the air who've won this category in this decade and they've both won it twice, Marguiles' triumphs sandwiching two consecutives for Danes. But Homeland is less popular than it once was and Marguiles actually missed a nomination in one year of her show's run. Might one of them be snubbed to make room for newbies?
TIER 3 STILL POPULAR -BUT POPULAR ENOUGH?
Robin Wright (House of Cards), Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey), and Kerry Washington (Scandal) were all nominated last year but if they were going to win, wouldn't they have done so already for more potent fresher seasons? Wright is the best thing about House of Cards but Season 3 hasn't thrilled people like the first two. Despite constant nominations Dockery is still weirdly underappreciated as the icy heiress of Downton Abbey but the show has seen better days, and unless they're in to her romantic indecisions and new bob a fourth consecutive nomination seems like a stretch. Kerry is also in danger of running out of steam.
TIER 4 FRESH FACE THREAT - SHE JUST WON THE GLOBE.
Ruth Wilson's Globe win for The Affair could mean she'll be disrupting this party with her Rashomon style double deliveries of he said / she said scene-work in Showtime's romantic mystery. But there's so much competition and the Globes love debut series more than any other awards entity does, so it's always a little hard to read general favor into their total embrace of a freshman series.
TIER 5 STEALTH ATTACK (?) - THEIR SHOWS ARE BACK SOON
Both Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men) and Lizzy Caplan (Masters of Sex) have been in the mix before but no one is talking about either of them. That could change as soon as their shows come back. Mad Men will conclude its run right before Emmy voting but the decision to split that last season could well doom any of its actors from picking up their last chance gold by cutting their final arcs off at midsection. But will Masters of Sex be back in time? It's 3rd Season has no official return date just a "soon" via Showtime. Unless it comes back by June, will anyone remember the long ago ended second season when it comes to voting?
TIER 6 - THE LONGSHOTS
Pictured: Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black), Kerry Russell (The Americans), I Forget Her Name But She's Great (Outlander), Connie Britton (Nashville), Tea Leoni (Madame Secretary), Hayley Atwell (Agent Carter), Patricia Arquette (CSI:Cyber*), Eva Green (Penny Dreadful). Not pictured but could have been included: Felicity Huffman (American Crime), Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel).
Either they're former Emmy winners stuck in bad shows, former nominees in shows that aren't on the tip of the tongue, or great actresses doing stellar work in genre shows, Emmy being super-dumbly-resistant to the latter, pray real hard if you're rooting for any of these gals.
(Now that I've written all of this watch Emmy decide that Mariska Hargitay needs a 9th nomination for Law & Order: Special Victims Unit in its 123rd season just because.)
Thoughts? Dreams? Prayers? Soap Opera antics? How are you feeling reading all of this.
*I know this sounds ridiculous but remember when Emmy felt the need to give a trophy to Melissa McCarthy because of Bridesmaids which wasn't on television. That.
Reader Comments (73)
1. Davis
2. Wright
3. Margulies
4. Wilson
5. Danes
6. Henson
7. Washington
8. Dockery
Like I've said before 3rtful, needs to put "hu" in front of his name instead of the "3" and leave it at that.
My ballot would be as follows:
Claire Danes, HOMELAND
Viola Davis, HOW TO GET AWAY WITH MURDER
Vera Farmiga, BATES MOTEL
Tatiana Maslany, ORPHAN BLACK
Sarah Paulson, AMERICAN HORROR STORY: FREAK SHOW
Keri Russell, THE AMERICANS
with runner up positions going to: Mireille Enos - THE KILLING, Jessica Lange - AMERICAN HORROR STORY: FREAK SHOW and Ruth Wilson - THE AFFAIR
I've loved Claire Danes since the beginning of Homeland and still do, Davis goes way above and beyond on HTGAWM, and I have to disagree with you Nat on Farmiga for Bates Motel. I think her character is constantly shifting her emotions and developing from where we first saw her, and I love how well Farmiga can do crazy. I only started watching Orphan Black last year and binged watched the two seasons. Maslany has deserved nominations for both seasons. Sarah Paulson was fantastic on AHS: FS and definitely had the trickiest task performing with two heads. She was able to create two distinct characters occupying one body. I am also shocked at how little love The Americans has received from the Emmys. It's a fantastic show and topped my ballot last year for the best drama series on television. Keri Russell should have two nominations already as well.
As for the runners up, I was so happy when Netflix renewed The Killing for a fourth and final season. The way the ended Season 3, I thought "they cannot end the series like that!" Enos was just brutally devastating in the final episodes and in turn was just great. I know you thought Lange was just repeating herself in AHS: FS, Nat, but damn does she repeat well. I also thought the way "Elsa" lost her legs in the show was soooo sad and poignant. Last of all, The Affair was definitely one of the best new shows this past season and it's Globe win, along with Wilson's, was very deserved.
I also consider AMERICAN HORROR STORY: FREAK SHOW a drama series and not a limited series ;)
and OMG I almost forgot Connie Britton for NASHVILLE! She is such a great actress and love the work she does on the show, but wish she would push herself a little more ;) Ryan Murphy needs to make her come back on AMERICAN HORROR STORY for a short guest arc or something!
I love this post. We really are so spoiled these days (although voters don't really seem to think so - I can totally see your Law & Order SVU worry coming true).
I would die of joy if Eva Green, Tatiana Maslany and Keri Russell get nominated. They are all oh so very brilliant - I THINK Russell would get my gold at this point but not sure. WATCH her show - if you have amazon prime it is free.
I suspect that Hensen, Moss, Caplan & Viola will be fighting it out on my ballot for spots 4 & 5. But who knows, Moss very well may deserve the gold by the end of the year. I love Peggy and Moss has almost always been my MVP of Mad Men's cast year after year.
I agree that Robin Wright is pretty likely. She is really in 'tier 2' IMO, i'd put her as third most likely after Viola and Hensen. This season of House of Cards was a let down but Wright was better than ever , given more screen time and had some terrific moments.
Most likely nominations - Hensen, Viola, Wright, Marguiles
Most likely for spots 5 & 6 (in order) - Moss, Dockery, Danes, Wilson, Caplan & Washington.
I think Moss will have a great farewell and there will be a lot of nostalgia for Mad Men's final run of episodes that the finale and awards campaigns will absolutely capitalize on.
Bhuray, thank you for the Mireille Enos reminder. I'm sorry I forgot about her work on The Killing.
Citing Patricia Arquette isn't silly at all, not just because of the Melissa McCarthy example, but also because they actually nominated Marg Helgenberger twice in this category for the original CSI, and she didn't have an Oscar. And let's not forget Arquette actually won an Emmy in this category for a procedural (Medium).
In fact, I think Arquette is almost a lock for a nomination and she'll probably knock out someone far more deserving.
"Tom M -- i can tell you why i'm not watching THE AMERICANS. I got really interested around the second season when i kept hearding how good it was. But there was no way to view it from the begininng. all the online options or on demand options involved only a handful of episodes and I didn't want to start from the middle. So i'll have to wait until Netflix picks it up or ssomething. Hate when shows only allow some of their seasons or episodes to be avialable."
FX has an exclusive deal with Amazon for The Americans and Hannibal I think. Season 1 and 2 are free with an Amazon Prime membership (won't ever be on Netflix or another streaming service). I suggest a binge watch with a 30 day free trial membership. Definitely worth it.
Annet Mahendru also deserves every Supporting Actress TV trophy out there. The show really gives its actresses super compelling material to work with week after week and they really dominate.
I don't watch anywhere near enough TV to have much of a credible say, but...
"who has an amazing 8th season?"
Kyra Sedgwick in The Closer. I mean, seven seasons since it didn't go to 8 because she felt she'd given it everything by that stage, but there are definitely new parts to the performance in that final season that are far removed from the first or third or fifth.
Now that this Kyra fanboy has had his say, I'm gonna let y'all keep musing.
3rtful, if you hate everything Nathaniel writes why do you still read his site? Sigh.
I think this will either be the year we see a black actress win, or Taraji and Viola will split votes and someone else will sneak through.
I think Taraji deserves to win, but Viola is the more respected actress (and I think people will look down on Taraji's character). I'm rooting for Taraji.
Mentioning Patricia Arquette is smart, ever since I heard about CSI: Cyber I thought she'd be nominated because of the year she is coming off of. I love her, but hopefully that doesn't happen simply because the show is atrocious and there are so many more deserving nominees for this category.
If Orange is the New Black indeed goes drama, I hope Taylor Schilling makes it in. I thought her work in season 2 was really strong.
I love this post!
@RobUK You make a good point about ER, although I remember Sally Field did get some love for her S8 arc. But there were plenty of worthwhile performances worth inviting back after those earlier buzzy seasons, like Noah Wyle after his drug addiction arc in S7, or even Angela Bassett in the show's final season.
Much as I love Tatiana Maslany, I just don't think it's going to happen if it hasn't already. I'd love to be proved wrong on this, but the second season was a mess in spite of her (and she even had that rare misstep with the trans clone) and I can't see the third season receiving the same sort of notices as she received early in the show's run.
I think this is probably Henson’s award to lose, but I do believe if anyone has a shot of pulling a Kyle Chandler surprise, it could be Moss. AMC really need to push the fact that Mad Men has never been awarded an acting award, and she seems like the obvious recipient of that.
Folks, Taraji is not going to win this, and not because the category historically favors white actresses, as suggested earlier in the comments. What episode could she possibly submit that will sway voters like the best of Robin Wright, Julianna Margulies or Clare Danes in their "prestige dramas"? Moreover, I can think of at least two possible Viola Davis submissions (taking off the makeup or Cicely Tyson) that would steamroll any Empire scenery chewing. Hell, any Sarah/Alison/Cosima/Rachel/Hanna episode of Orphan Black has more wow than Cookie.
And I love me some Cookie. #RunThemPearlsHo
It's our loss that you don't/can't cover TV/the Emmys as much as you do film/the Oscars since
1) this analysis is fantastic and
2) NO ONE is doing this kind of analysis of Emmy races.
Also, you know, don't feed the troll.
@Paul Outlaw, I think she could EASILY win with the pilot, which shows a wide range of emotions, allows her to enter and steal scenes like a boss, and where she gets to be a likable underdog mom fiercely protecting her gay son from his homophobic father. I hate to quote Tom O'Neil but you can't argue with the results: impact, range and likability usually equally Emmy and Taraji gets al of that in the pilot.
I think Viola will win this. She's just too big of a star right now and she has some massive awards baity scenes.
Akash -- we will be covering it more but i have to keep the balance tilted to film. as the mediums get closer and closer together it makes sense. plus it's good for traffic and i need that to keep doing the site.
Anything is possible in the Emmy race. Remember, Lindsay Wagner won an Emmy in this category for The Bionic Woman, as did Mariette Hartley for The Incredible Hulk.
*This is in no way a disparagement of Ms. Wagner, who I fanatically adore in this show. Having not seen Ms. Hartley, I cannot comment.
On Facebook, the Orange is the New Black page just posted this:
"Drama Category? We got this... #Emmys #OITNB"
So I guess that settles that.
I can't really complain, I think the first season was more comedy, but season 2 was much more dramatic. The Vee/Crazy Eyes storyline was some of the darkest stuff I've ever seen.
Regarding EGOT (and other) precursors: Let's say Elisabeth Moss wins the Tony for The Heidi Chronicles in June and is nominated as lead for the final season of Mad Men. If she's competing against the reigning Supporting Actress Oscar winner (Arquette), last year's Emmy winner (Margulies), this year's SAG winner (Davis), this year's Golden Globe winner (Wilson) and either Wright or Danes, it's going to be a bloodbath, even without Cookie.
Could it happen?
I'm on Team Viola but if Henson opens that door I will be glad as well
brookesboy -- yeah and they like Game of Thrones and they used to like Gillian Anderson on X-FILES so I guess it's not entirely hopeless for sci-fi/fantasy... still, remember how they completely ignored Battlestar Galactica's brilliant cast playing very difficult roles. argh.
maybe if Orphan Black were on HBO Maslany would probably get nominated :)