Emmy History, "Empire" Heat, and the Super Competitive 'Best Drama Actress' Race
Wednesday, March 18, 2015 at 2:11PM 
The two hour season finale of Empire, a show I like to call "The Taraji P Henson Variety Hour," hits tonight and though Emmy nominee balloting is literally three months away (June 15th-26th) so there's plenty of time to weigh the options and discuss them, the Empire team is already working hard to win votes. Taraji P Henson & Terence Howard feel like likely players in the Drama races. I doubt Emmy will ignore the leads in a new primetime soap network drama this buzzy and popular. The 1980s were unquestionably the heyday of this genre of television (with Dallas, Dynasty, The Colbys, Knots Landing and Falcon Crest all popular) though it's probably worth noting that the actors within this genre have had an easier time landing nominations then their series have. Dallas and Dynasty, the two most popular shows of this genre in the history of television, were only up for the top prize three times between them. Why, you ask?
Emmy history and the historic Best Actress after the jump...
In the 1980s when the modern soap was at its most popular Television Academy was deep in the snare of three types of shows: cops, detectives, and hospitals (Hill Street Blues, Cagney & Lacey, Magnum P.I., Murder She Wrote, St Elsewhere, China Beach, were all huge with Emmy) only breaking that daisy chain by, uh, reinforcing it with a fourth link, the legal drama (L.A. Law, The Practice, Law & Order). For twenty years -- and this no exaggeration whatsoever -- it was hard to get arrested unless you were one of these four types of shows or you were an undeniably huge buzzy hit (like outlier thirtysomething). The soap began a long drawn out revival by way of youth aimed shows -Beverly Hills 90210, Melrose Place, and the entire CW network but it's never regained its previous immense popularity with adults unless it was disguised as comedy (Desperate Housewives) until Downton Abbey (it qualifies, don'cha think?) and Empire with a little Revenge as warm up I suppose though that show never quite broke out into a big deal; Madeline Stowe was game at least!
But we digress. Soaps have had trouble because they didn't fit into those four types of shows that Emmy dubs instantly respectable and therefore watches and often loves. In the Aughts, only through the hard work of HBO's zeitgeist rise and new Emmy rut The West Wing was this daisy chain broken for good... and even then only gradually.
SHOCKING HISTORY BUT TRUE
It wasn't until Emmy fell out of love with The Good Wife and Dexter that we finally broke this Emmy rut. 2012 & 2013 were the first consecutive Drama Series lineups without at least one representative of either cop, hospital, or legal dramas and often more than one of those since the 1960s if you can believe it when "spy/adventure" series and anthologies were closer to the norm. Can you believe it?
The 2012/2013 lineup was like so...
- Boardwalk Empire (2012) / House of Cards (2013)
- Breaking Bad
- Downton Abbey
- Game of Thrones
- Homeland
- Mad Men
True Detective spoiled the "what is this variety?" party last year, returning the cop drama to Emmy's exclusive club. (Emmy doesn't only get stuck in ruts with shows they can't let go of, they get stuck in entire genres.) The Emmy landscape has (thankfully) had more diversity of genre in the contemporary TV landscape. That's partially because there are so many more programs to choose from but their personality hasn't really changed all that much. That absolute devotion to procedurals has now shapeshifted to become absolute devotion to whatever HBO and other cable channels have on offer; networks be gone! So pray that HBO and Showtime don't decide that they really need to devote their resources to is more cop, hospital, and lawyer shows. Pray hard!
EMPIRE AND BEST ACTRESS
Some people think that the Emmy race for Drama Actress is going to be 50% African American this year which would be a real break from tradition. As with Oscar history, Best Actress is the Emmy category most resistant to African American actors. As with Oscar history, this has a lot to do with what types of movies/shows that the studios greenlight. With the huge triple success of Scandal, How To get Away With Murder and Empire we can safely expect this to change in the near future since Hollywood follows the money. TV is even more repetitive (and faster) than movies in trying to copycat its successes so expect a lot of greenlights for series starring alpha personalitied black women real soon. Nevertheless I don't expect that Best Drama Actress will feature Kerry/Taraji/Viola this year. My guess is that the Kerry Washington / Scandal party is running out of steam now that so many newer cable shows have fresh buzz and now that Viola's Slumming Procedural and The Taraji Variety Hour are where it's at for Network TV.
I'd break things down like so but I am no television expert so perhaps you'll want to chime in and reconfigure this ranked battle for the six nominations? When it comes to BEST ACTRESS (ANY VARIETY) I know you're all quite opinionated.
TWO SURE THINGS (?) - THE TRUE BATTLE
There's no precedence for a battle like this but then there's also never been a time when two of the most popular dramas on air were headlined by former African American Oscar nominated women. I'd be shocked if either were denied a nomination and I think one of them will win.
TIER 2 REIGNING QUEENS - CAN THEY STAY IN THE THRONE ROOM?
Julianne Marguiles and Claire Danes are the only women still on the air who've won this category in this decade and they've both won it twice, Marguiles' triumphs sandwiching two consecutives for Danes. But Homeland is less popular than it once was and Marguiles actually missed a nomination in one year of her show's run. Might one of them be snubbed to make room for newbies?
TIER 3 STILL POPULAR -BUT POPULAR ENOUGH?
Robin Wright (House of Cards), Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey), and Kerry Washington (Scandal) were all nominated last year but if they were going to win, wouldn't they have done so already for more potent fresher seasons? Wright is the best thing about House of Cards but Season 3 hasn't thrilled people like the first two. Despite constant nominations Dockery is still weirdly underappreciated as the icy heiress of Downton Abbey but the show has seen better days, and unless they're in to her romantic indecisions and new bob a fourth consecutive nomination seems like a stretch. Kerry is also in danger of running out of steam.
TIER 4 FRESH FACE THREAT - SHE JUST WON THE GLOBE.
Ruth Wilson's Globe win for The Affair could mean she'll be disrupting this party with her Rashomon style double deliveries of he said / she said scene-work in Showtime's romantic mystery. But there's so much competition and the Globes love debut series more than any other awards entity does, so it's always a little hard to read general favor into their total embrace of a freshman series.
TIER 5 STEALTH ATTACK (?) - THEIR SHOWS ARE BACK SOON
Both Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men) and Lizzy Caplan (Masters of Sex) have been in the mix before but no one is talking about either of them. That could change as soon as their shows come back. Mad Men will conclude its run right before Emmy voting but the decision to split that last season could well doom any of its actors from picking up their last chance gold by cutting their final arcs off at midsection. But will Masters of Sex be back in time? It's 3rd Season has no official return date just a "soon" via Showtime. Unless it comes back by June, will anyone remember the long ago ended second season when it comes to voting?
TIER 6 - THE LONGSHOTS
Pictured: Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black), Kerry Russell (The Americans), I Forget Her Name But She's Great (Outlander), Connie Britton (Nashville), Tea Leoni (Madame Secretary), Hayley Atwell (Agent Carter), Patricia Arquette (CSI:Cyber*), Eva Green (Penny Dreadful). Not pictured but could have been included: Felicity Huffman (American Crime), Vera Farmiga (Bates Motel).
Either they're former Emmy winners stuck in bad shows, former nominees in shows that aren't on the tip of the tongue, or great actresses doing stellar work in genre shows, Emmy being super-dumbly-resistant to the latter, pray real hard if you're rooting for any of these gals.
(Now that I've written all of this watch Emmy decide that Mariska Hargitay needs a 9th nomination for Law & Order: Special Victims Unit in its 123rd season just because.)
Thoughts? Dreams? Prayers? Soap Opera antics? How are you feeling reading all of this.
*I know this sounds ridiculous but remember when Emmy felt the need to give a trophy to Melissa McCarthy because of Bridesmaids which wasn't on television. That.
Reader Comments (73)
It's tragic they decided they were done with legal dramas in the era of The Good Wife's never ending awesomeness.
I can't participate in the Taraji vs. Viola debate. All I can think of is that Elisabeth Moss is going to be Emmy-less and that KILLS ME.
I am really enjoying reading your well written articles. I think you spend numerous effort and time updating your site. I have bookmarked it and I am taking a look ahead to reading new articles.
I am LOVING Farmiga in Bates Motel
So, Empire just cock-blocked Madonna from another #1 album, and I'm not as mad as some people seem to be about it. It's like the recording industry's equivalent of a Hunger Games movie. Like yeah, the beheamouth phenomenon is more RIGHT NOW than Madonna's album, which has been released over a period of three months and doesn't have the immediacy it might have.
I can't imagine living in a world where Keri Russel never gets a nod for "The Americans". Better with each season..but why is no one watching? Or Vera? Or Tatiana? And what about Gillian Anderson "The Fall"? I guess I need to do a lot of candle lighting.
Peggy Sue -- it's never tragic, no matter how good a show is, to be done with that type of show that you've been stockholm syndromed by for 40 years
Oh, you and your 'I don't watch procedurals' bias!
;)
Six Best Actress nominees should be
Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex
Eva Green, Penny Dreadful
Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Keri Russell, The Americans
Honorable mentions: Davis, Huffman (is that a series or a miniseries?), Margulies, Wilson
As with Oscar history, Best Actress is the Emmy category most resistant to African American actors.
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Drama is all well and good (go Eva and Lizzy!) but if they don't nominate Lisa Kudrow for Comedy for The Comeback I will BURN HOLLYWOOD TO THE GROUND AND SALT THE EARTH.
Great piece. I agree that it's very unlikely that either Taraji or Viola will miss. I hope Taraji wins. Though "Empire" is not without its problems, it's so much more fun, interesting and engrossing than nearly anything else happening on network primetime drama. Hopefully more network exects get the cue and realize that network primetime drama doesn't have to be all procedurals with sanded down edges. It can be fun, it can be character-based, it can be diverse and people will totally watch.
Just want to throw in a mention for Emmy Rossum, who is continuing to kill it after five seasons on "Shameless". She's so great in a role that I'm sure few would have pegged as being in her wheelhouse based on her previous work. Shame that the television academy may never take notice of the work she's doing, but Rossum so easily deserves to be in the mix.
Right now, I'm rooting for either Taraji or Robin.
I'm going to second Paul Outlaw's 10 choices. I would rearrange the nominees and honorees, but I like the list.
Great piece Nat.
Caitriona Balfe, Eva Green, and Keri Russell all deserve to be included, but they won't be.
I think one of the things that irritates you the most about Emmy (perceived perennial or default nominations) may just be one of the things which irritates me but in a different way, and for me it's the "new toys" factor. I often get the sense with Emmy that rebound nominations are pretty rare for long-running shows once they've fallen out of favour, and I've always found this bothersome.
You joke, for instance, about Mariska Hargitay getting nominated as if that's somehow wrong without (I'm guessing?) having checked out the work. I haven't myself, so I don't know either!
But I think this is my point: take E.R. for instance. An Emmy frontrunner for years, then gradually not included because other exciting shows came along. That show ran for, what, 15 seasons? Nobody can tell me that it didn't have highs AND lows throughout its run, and yet once you're off the list, you're not invited back. And yet great work may still be being done. Who in the Academy was checking out whether a great actor or actress emerged around season 13 and knocked it out of the park? I'd love to see somebody like a Hargitay rebound back in on merit, otherwise the implication is that "you've had your time (or your show has), now go away!" And isn't that ignoring the very work they're supposed to be celebrating?
@Rob UK - Case in point: Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy (Seasons 9-10).
Here's your six nominees:
Claire Danes, "Homeland"
Viola Davis, "How to Get Away With Murder"
Michelle Dockery, "Downton Abbey"
Taraji P. Henson, "Empire"
Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
Robin Wright, "House of Cards"
Robin Wright wins if she submits "Chapter 32." It's her "time." Both Davis and Henson aren't winning for soap operas. Margulies and Danes are recent winners without clear tapes. Dockery's never winning. I think Wright wins even if she bungles her tape like she did last year.
If there's a seventh nominee, I'm looking for it to be between Elisabeth Moss (departing love for "Mad Men," though she could drop down to supporting actress again) and Ruth Wilson (GG winner). Kerry Washington is bumped for lost buzz. Maybe the same fate is in store for Claire Danes. The only way three black women is in this lineup is if a big player is snubbed.
Everyone else, thanks for playing.
COMPLICATING FACTOR: With the rule changes, Orange Is The New Black might also be competing in the drama category. It's tough to say if any OITNB players would be in this category for season two, but Taylor Schilling did get basically two entire episodes focused very closely on just her, so she shouldn't be counted out.
I was going to add Jane the Virgin's super-deserving Gina Rodriguez, but the Emmy Board (or whatever) apparently just ruled that it would be considered a comedy (THANK GOD - hopefully she stands an even better chance of getting nominated or even winning now!), along with Glee and Shameless, which... I LOVE that show (and think Emmy Rossum is hugely deserving of at least a nomination for the award with which she shares a name), but it has gotten only MORE dramatic since it switched to the Comedy category. I'm kinda shocked that it was allowed to stay in that category.
I would say that Kerry Washington could be out of the running, but then there was "Run", one of the buzziest TV episodes of the year, and it was basically a one-woman show. Plus, she was amazing in it. So I think she stands more of a chance than you would think.
I think my ideal list would be Caplan, Davis, Green, Henson, Russell, and Washington, with Atwell running close behind and apologies to Marguiles and Danes (who have both had better seasons and the hardware to prove it) as well as Moss (whose show I don't watch). Apologies also to Dockery, I guess. I think she's very good on Downton, but I just don't think she's ever had as much to do with that character as most of the other women in the running.
If only there was a way to get Madeline Stowe back into the conversation...
I agree with Tom M - why is no one watching The Americans? That is one brilliant show. Russell and all her co-stars should be shoo-ins. And like I've said before, Moss will probably win an Oscar inside of five years. It's ridiculous she hasn't been recognized for Mad Men.
denny: The problem with nominating Spacey and Robin Wright much more than once is that, though they're not bad, they never really CHANGE. I get that not every show has to be about characters changing and everything, but let's take The Shield as an example. Chiklis is getting boring and it's pretty clear, whether or not he gets punished, he's not really going to change. We're still engaged and everything, but we don't view it as tough. And then we see what pushes Jay Karnes' mostly squeaky clean co-lead Howard "Dutch" Wagenbach to kill a cat. Though I wouldn't want to see him come back (he never really has a moment as good as "Strays") after that, I'm surprised the Emmy's went for LaPaglia over that.
Tom M -- i can tell you why i'm not watching THE AMERICANS. I got really interested around the second season when i kept hearding how good it was. But there was no way to view it from the begininng. all the online options or on demand options involved only a handful of episodes and I didn't want to start from the middle. So i'll have to wait until Netflix picks it up or ssomething. Hate when shows only allow some of their seasons or episodes to be avialable.
Nathaniel - I caught up with The Americans on Amazon Prime last summer. Not sure if it's still there...
Nathaniel R: Do you have Amazon Prime? The first two seasons of The Americans are available with a subscription. You could even try and binge it during a trial membership.
Paul: I actually 100% agree with those nominees, which is crazy with all the quality out there. Interested to see if OITNB stays in the drama field. Schilling is super close to that top 6 for me.
Paul Outlaw - Your list of nominees is outstanding. Although I could easily switch Lizzy Caplan for Viola Davis. Eva and Keri will never get nominations, but a girl can dream.
Honorable mention to Emmy Rossum who is wonderful on Shameless. That category switch annoys me to the point that I don't want her to get a nomination though. I know, I know it's petty.
@ Elizabeth, Henry, DrewB: But if I had to *predict* right now, it would be Reynolds' list above, possibly substituting Elisabeth Moss for Dockery...
Taraji already won. You all get over it.
I think Taraji's heat will upset Viola for the win. Weirdly enough though, I don't see Empire getting any major nominations in supporting. Just Terrence and Taraji.
i feel the lack of Lizzy Caplan love out there means people are not watching the show because she's kind of a miracle. One particular episode last year, all in bathrobes in a hotel room was like watching a really intense and great one act play with sterling theater actors bringing their all. (i realize she's not a theater actor)
I could see either of the guys playing Jamal or Andre getting supporting nods. They are both doing terrific work (especially Andre).
The two LOCK nominees in this category are Viola Davis and Robin Wright and it will come down to a battle between these vets. Wright has 4 tapes to choose from and a killer episode if she chooses correctly with "Chapter 32". Davis is an Oscar nominee with several episodes to choose from as well. This will go down to the wire...
I'd say Taraji P. Henson and Juliana Marguiles are near locks as well. Danes is solid in fifth and will probably come back since "Homeland" was greatly improved this past season.
The big question mark is that sixth spot which could go to Washington, Dockrey, Wilson, Moss, Caplan or Malsany (my personal choice). I think Washington will nab it though.
Ranking their likliehood of nominations~
1. Viola Davis
2. Robin Wright
3. Taraji P. Henson
4. Juliana Marguiles
5. Clare Danes
6. Kerry Washington
7. Ruth Wilson
8. Michelle Dockrey (even though she did nothing this past season, she's just quite popular)
9. Elizabeth Moss (unless she goes Supporting)
10. Tatiana Maslany
11. Lizzy Caplan
These are not my predictions but my preferences.
my current ballot
Caitriona Balfe (Outlander S1)
Lizzy Caplan (Masters of Sex S2)
Eva Greene(Penny Dreadful S1)
Taraji P Henson (Empire S1)
Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black S3)
there's one spot open and I assume Moss will get it unless they don't give her enough to do in which case Ruth Wilson. But i should note that I have not seen THE AMERICANS, don't watch THE GOOD WIFE (havent' liked it on the rare occasion that i've checked in) and gave up on HOMELAND in S3 so i haven't seen the latest season but used to think Danes was pretty damn great in it. I used to watch Bates Motel but I have to admit that I never though Farmiga was worthy in it and that she has the same problem as Viola Davis has in HTGAWM -- they are amazing actresses but the characters are written every which way for reasons that don't feel cohesive and character based so much as making-it-up-as-we-go-along plot and episode based. They get far on presence and techincal skill but there's a lot more to giving a great performance than those elements.
volvagia -- agreed. i think she's good on the show but a couple of nominations is enough.
rob uk -- yeah. we're definitely coming from different places on this. I just don't think many actors (or writing teams) have that much to offer a character after a few years. You can be jsut great but if you've done it all before why should you keep getting nominated for it? For example as stated in the article I LOVE Michelle Dockery on Downton Abbey and she's still just perfect in the role but they aren't ever asking her to substantially change or find new facets to the character so what is the point now in nominating her? Watching her sure! I'll keep doing that but if i had a ballot she wouldn't be on it for this season despite my love for her. I honestly think there should be a cap on how many nominations you can get for the same role and I think it would go a long way in keeping the Emmys more relevant and fresh.
/3rtful -- thanks for being annoying even though i asked you to stop saying that in every post -- i am not opposed to pointing out racism in Hollywood (i do it all the time when it's appropriate -- but not every comment thread needs to be about that. It just makes it unpleasant to make everything about that. There are more than enough opportunities to discuss it when that's the topic -- But I guess i walked right into the trap by using "most resistant to" which is not technically correct. In fact they haven't been resistant at all because there just have not been drama series led by black actresses. That was the big deal about Scandal when it came out. TV just wasnt' making those shows so there's no way for Emmy to have resisted nominating them.
Andre, played by Trai Beyers. Swoon! Another actor from All My Children.
Jason - curious why you think ROBIN WRIGHT is such a lock? I've heard a lot of people griping about this season of House of Cards.
I think the problem with Masters of Sex is when it airs - by the time the nominations period comes around it aired almost a year ago, and it's a VERY quiet show. So despite how good Caplan and Sheen are, they really don't stand a chance unless the new season starts airing at the beginning of the nomination period, which I don't think it will. Or Showtime starts making tons of noise for it
(I realise I just inadvertently turned Mariska Hargitay into the cowgirl doll in Toy Story 2!)
I take your point, yet equally doesn't an actor know more about their character at the end of a long run than they did at the start? There's a an additional richness which shouldn't be dismissed, because they've learned more about their character en route.
Capping the number of nominations would seem ludicrous if, for example, someone had a killer season 8, and I unfortunately suspect voters aren't invested in watching a lot of season 8s to take a view on them because: "Ooh look: Viola Davis. She's in movies. And has fresh buzz."
Meanwhile: "Everything was beautiful... when Emmy loved me."
Nathaniel,
Love your preference ballot. Danes was pretty great in Homeland's comeback season. The Good Wife is the best show on television. It stopped being a procedural somewhere in season 2. That being said, there is not really a true lead in that show anymore. Marguiles does not get nearly as much screentime as she used to and she won't have a tape this year like last year's trauma, so I wouldn't mind if she is cut in favor of some others as long as The Good Wife pops back up in Drama Series and Supporting Actor.
@Nathaniel
Stop pretending to be down. You live in Harlem and black people still confuse you. Focus on whiteness and your Asian fetish.
I thought they had announced that they were expanding major categories to seven nominees?
I think folks are overselling Empire. It is not the type of show that the older Emmy voters will like. The television academy has mainly white middle age voters who are not into hip hop and the music on Empire is terrible. The show is so bad it is entertaining. But it is really not award worthy unless it is a popular choice award.
As far as nominees, I think all three black actresses (Viola, Taraji and Kerry) will get nominated. But in terms of episode submission, Viola and Kerry have more voter friendly material to submit than Taraji. The other three nominees will likely be Robin, Juliana and Clare although I could see Clare being dropped for someone else. Or if the 2% rule applies than there could be seven nominees like in 2013.
Margaret -- i thought that was only for the "series" categories. i.e. their best pictures. anyone?
/3rtful -- i never pretend to be anything. i'm not an actor and just am who i am. asian fetish, white gay boy, who likes black actresses and all. ;) Serious Question: why are you always so unpleasant? hope you find something to be happy about soon.
Lee - I would say that you miight have a point there except Empire isn't this popular by appealing to a niche. It's an all quadrant hit.and i for onei actually like the music. I listen to it quite a bit :) except drip drop. omg that song is annoying.
RobUk -- but my point is this: who has an amazing 8th season? maybe it's all just personal preferences. I guess being a film person and part of the reason i like film is constant new stories. I get bored of most tv shows if they get repetitive... and with rare exceptions shows get worse after about 4 seasons. The only shows I've liked for a LONG time are the ones that are always trying to reinvent themselves or have very developed arcs. i.e. if you tune in you couldnn't possibly mistake a season 5 characterization from a season 2 characterization.
I love how people pronounce who is going to win when the voters will be voting on 1 episode and no one knows what each nominees will submit yet or how it stacks up to the rest.
At least the Emmys are unpredictable and exciting because of this 1 episode winner take all system. The Oscar races have become such repetitive bores.
With "Empire" I have an instinct that nominations will be an all or nothing deal, Henson aside. Either it will be heavily represented (series; actor: Howard; possibly supporting actor: Smollett, who has the heat; and maybe guest acting: Love and Judd Nelson) or complete ignored. I do get the sense that there will be somewhat of a push to reward one of the biggest, buzziest hits that network TV has seen in a while, but it's so hard to tell this early on.
@Nathaniel
You met me in person and had zero enthusiasm.
And Empire will get at least one writing nod. Strong has done a lot of credible work and they will reward him at least once, perhaps twice. The final hour of the series was pretty brilliant (the direction was weak, but the writing was great) and it will get a nod. They are really pushing the envelope for network and getting away with it. That is why it is so popular.
Despite a HUGE cast, the characters and arcs are clear (unlike HTGAWM) which will also help. I see lots of nominations. The Emmy voters may be older and whiter, but they aren't dumb. TV needs Empire right now and more like it. The appeal is across the board too so it will be popular nominations which everyone will agree with.
I would be very surprised if Empire got an Outstanding Series nod for the reasons Nathaniel mentioned, but stranger things have happened.
I also think we have to consider Arquette as a credible BA nominee. She is an Emmy and Oscar winner and they will want to acknowledge her for coming back to TV. I don't think she has a chance in hell of winning, the nomination would be the prize.
How is that possible that you're not able to see "The Americans" and do nothing to remedy that?
A black woman has never won the Emmy for Lead Actress in a Drama Series. You think Taraji P. Henson will break that trend? Get a clue and learn some Emmy history.