6 Questions. Best Actor / Supporting Actor Races
Monday, September 28, 2015 at 12:40PM The Oscar prediction charts are revised for ACTOR and SUPPORTING ACTOR and boy is the competition ever on. Here are 5 questions for you to discuss in the comments and as you consider your own predictions at home.
1. Is Best Supporting Actor actually stronger than Best Actor this year?
With the decision of Spotlight to run its two arguable leads as supporting (it is an ensemble film so this makes a kind of justified sense... even if a "convenient" kind) and excitement for Johnny Depp's Black Mass star turn already dying down (or is this just our imagination?) the Best Actor race suddenly looks a little thinner than expected and the Supporting Actor race a lot fuller. The category confusions that crop up every year now as well as Hollywood's deep love of all star male ensembles have made things a lot harder for true supporting players of the male persuasion. Years ago, for example, I'd guess that Stanley Tucci had a slam dunk case for his scene stealing in Spotlight and Chiwetel Ejiofor had a real dark horse opportunity as the sympathetic home base of The Martian (think Ed Harris's nominated role in Apollo 13) but I couldn't fit either of them into even the top 15.
2. Will young actors be in the mix for a change?
While Oscar's love of young women and resistance to young men is well documented on this site (and in any perusal of Oscar stats) two of the most well regarded performance from the recent festival circuit were Abraham Attah, who is only 14, and Jacob Tremblay, who is only 8, who lead Beasts of No Nation and Room respectively. In almost all cases male leads who are very young go supporting with Oscar voters (think Timothy Hutton in Ordinary People, River Phoenix in Running on Empty, and Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense) though their female counterparts are harder to predict in terms of which category they might find traction in. Still I wonder if anyone will believe Attah as "supporting?" In the recent IndieWire TIFF poll we discussed -- which provides a good example of how few critics care about "category" distinctions -- Tremblay was very high up in the supporting votes (despite being the only male star of his two-hander movie) whereas Attah was high up in the leading charts despite playing opposite a pretty big star of the same gender in Idris Elba, who himself had extremely few leading votes (they were mostly supporting) which suggests to me that people won't ever think of Attah as supporting Elba but the other way around.
3. Both male acting categories won't clear up until...?
Quentin Tarantino's Hateful Eight starts screening. Or perhaps you think the key film is another film entirely.
4. Which actor do you think has a better shot at winning (if nominated) than he does at actually being nominated?
My guess is Harvey Keitel in Youth. His film director/best friend feels like a supporting character, at least until he takes over the movie for about 20 minutes or so. You could make an easy case that he's more overdue for Oscar gold than the Spotlight boys for example. But maybe you feel this odd distinction goes to someone else in either lead or supporting - Dicaprio perhaps.
5. Do you think Oscar statistics will get a shake up this year?
The last time two men from the same film were nominated in the same category is quite a long time ago now though it didn't use to be all that rare. Two supporting actors happened in Bugsy (1991) 24 years ago. Two lead actors happened in Amadeus (1984) 31 years ago. Three supporting (male) actors nominated for the same film happened thrice, first with On the Waterfront (1954) and then twice over with The Godfather parts 1 and 2 (1972/1974)... could Hateful 8 or Spotlight actually make it a fourth? (Since 1991 the only category that has seen any double nominations in acting -- and it's happened a lot -- is Supporting Actress.)
6. If you had to vote for your own supporting actor ballot RIGHT NOW (preferences not predictions) who would you include?
It's a tough call but I'd be looking at these 11 names (Brolin, Del Toro, Elliott, Ejiofor, Tucci, Schreiber... and the guys from the best of summer in review) and these 2 if I decided to allow for the supporting distinction (Keaton & Keitel), category distinctions I'm still having internal debates about.
Reader Comments (34)
I know Del Toro is campaigning as supporting, but do YOU, Nathaniel, buy that? I still don't know if he's a lead or if he's just so impressive that he feels like one.
I doubt he'd get nominated but Sam Elliot really did make Grandma more realistic and interesting and his chemistry with Lily Tomlin was sparkling. It'd be one of those career nominations too I think, but I was most affected by his scenes in the movie over everything else.
James-Elliott also has had a pretty impressive year with I'll See You in My Dreams and upcoming vocal work in The Good Dinosaur. A nomination for Grandma is an interesting theory for sure.
On Keitel: is that a beloved veteran in a watchable performance or a truly great performance by a veteran? Is he a Christopher Plummer or an Alan Arkin?
Nicholas Hoult. Oscar Isaac. Matthias Schoenaerts, Michael Sheen, Tom Sturridge. John Cusack, Paul Dano. Tobey Maguire, Liev Schreiber. Benicio del Toro (title character, massive presence throughout and especially at the climaxes--LEAD). Jakey.
1. Schoenaerts, FFTMC
2. Skarsgard, Diary of a Teenage Girl
3. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
4. Edgerton, Black Mass
5. Dano, Love & Mercy
Man, I guess I haven't seen much this year, but I feel like my Supporting Actor shortlist is Statham (SPY), Skarsgard (DIARY OF A TEENAGE GIRL), and Elliott (GRANDMA). End of list??
This may be naive, but O'Shea Jackson Jr., Corey Hawkins and Jason Mitchell are all excellent in Straight Outta Compton, Mitchell especially. The fact that a wildly successful musician biopic is not even making ripples in prognostication due to its "blackness" is a shame. Media creates most Oscar narratives, why not focus attention and press for actors that could really use the push? Why not take it as seriously as other biopics? Not blaming you, Nathaniel, it's just indicative of larger trends in the industry and the Award Season machine.
Agree that Elliot, Isaac and Dano should be listed. Dano should be way up on the list. Additionally, Robert Redford won't be nominated for Truth, but it's weird that he's not listed here when, say, someone like Hugh Jackman is listed for Pan.
Isaac, Ex Machina
Keaton, Spotlight
Keitel, Youth
Kind, Inside Out
Ruffalo, Spotlight
Shannon, 99 Homes
Skarsgaard, Diary of Teenage Girl
Whishaw, The Lobster
Damn, Tom Hiddleston crashed out of consideration with nary a mention except that the film's not good.
Elba
Del Toro
Isaac
Edgerton
Hardy
That is a very sexy collect but the way
add Tom Courtenay to the already stacked Supporting category since IFC is gonna campaign for him as such. But it'd be smarter if they move him to lead, considering how thin the competition looks now.
Being said that i think:
Hardy
Ruffalo (as he looks like the one with the bigger role in Spotlight)
Elba
Jackson
Keitel
personal preferences? not yet. Haven't seen enough movies to narrow it
Manuel: Don't you think Edgerton is a lead? He has as much if not more screen time than Depp. (Handily eclipses him too, IMHO).
Please Dano be nominated.
Sam Elliot also had a terrific arc in the dearly departed Justified earlier this year.
cal roth- Arkin.
@John
Nathaniel has avoided Straight Outta Compton altogether.
Harvey Keitel
Samuel L. Jackson
Kurt Russell
Michael Shannon, Freeheld
Paul Dano
(I think Dano is a lead. If he goes lead, then Nicholas Hoult or Jason Statham).
Eduardo -- Keaton has the biggest role in Spotlight but Ruffalo is right behind him in screen time. I hope they change their mind on Courtenay... there's still time.
Mark -- i don't know how they're campaigning Dano, frankly. which is why he's not on the chart.
Limbsking -- it' slike Sam Elliott Year without anyone realizing it.
Suzanne -- not listing Redford was an accident. and with Dano it was only because I didn't know where they're campaigning him.
Haven't seen enough lately for a listing of 5 to mean much. My favorite of 2015 so far is Hoult, with probably Isaac as runner-up.
I wonder if voting groups will coalesce around one or two performers from the Spotlight cast the entire season.
Best Actor isn't really THAT exciting to me, but I'm glad Actress is shaping up to be more interesting. I do love your faith behind Damon for The Martian though. It seems like that would be at least a slam dunk for the Comedy Globe nom? I think they are submitting it for the Musical/Comedy category.
1. Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
2. Daniil Vorobyov, Eastern Boys
3. Buddy Durress, Heaven Knows What
4. Saber Abbar, About Elly
5. Louis Garrell, Saint Laurent
I still need to watch a huge amount of 2015's films, but, right now, my perosnal ballot for this particular category seems perfectly complete. It has been a great year for supporting actors.
If I'm voting right now:
1. Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
2. Josh Brolin, Sicario
3. Benicio Del Toro, Sicario
4. Zachary Quinto, I Am Michael
5. Jesus Castro, Marshland
And I already don't want to give any of them up, which is a problem, lol.
Benicio del Toro – Sicario
Tim Guinee – 99 Homes
Michael Sheen – Far from the Madding Crowd
Alexander Skarsgård – The Diary of a Teenage Girl
Daniil Vorobyov – Eastern Boys
Honorable Mentions: Michael Kenneth Williams – Bessie, Oscar Isaac – Ex Machina, Louis Garrel – Saint Laurent, Keir Gilchrist – It Follows, Michael Welch – Boy Meets Girl, Oscar Martínez – Wild Tales, Leonardo Sbaraglia – Wild Tales, Idrissa Diabaté – Girlhood
I believe there were two supporting actor nominations for The Departed, right? Marky Mark Wahlberg & Jack Nicholson. So its not that rare for big, well liked, male ensembles like Hateful 8, Spotlight, etc..
@Dino. No, Jack Nicholson wasn't nominated. Wahlberg was. I think both were nominated for the Golden Globe, however.
Aaron, I stand corrected, but I think The Departed is a good indicator of how messy Spotlight & Hateful 8 could be. Nicholson got nominated for Bafta & Globe but no Oscar, Walhberg got the Oscar & Globe but no Bafta, and neither got the SAG, but DiCaprio did in Supporting. Leo also got Lead nom in Bafta and Globe but no Oscar nom, Blood Diamond stole that thunder for better or worse *cough worse*. So I'm thinking a couple roles from each will bob up and down through the precursors but Oscar will pick only 1 from each. I haven't seen either, but a hunch tells me it will be Jackson & Keaton. Jackson was close for Django and Tarantino defined his mainstream career with PulpFiction. Keaton because, duh, last year made everybody sad.
While I'm on the topic, regardless of how excellent the performance is, I'll spew my innards if Redmayne wins 2 years in a row for a Tom Hooper film. No way is he winning a 2nd when Damon, Fassbender, Depp, and (especially)DiCaprio are contenders. Smart money's on DiCaprio, but any of the 4 would make me and many very happy..
I've seen 22 of this year's films. And as far as supporting actors go my favorite performance came via Peter Serafinovicz in "Spy". The movie was okay - but he was just great, hilariously motor-mouthed and multi-accented. Surprised reviewers didn't single him out as the picture's MVP.
My top five for supporting actor would be:
Benicio del Toro – Sicario
Louis Garrel - Saint Laurent
Joe Manganiello – Magic Mike XXL
Christopher Meloni – The Diary of a Teenage Girl
Clemens Schick – Futuro Beach
Although I might throw Ben Whishaw for The Lobster in there and I was impressed with Josh Brolin in Sicario, too.
"The Departed" is a weird one for Supporting Actor. Nicholson got the Globes nomination, DiCaprio got the SAG nomination (as a double-nom, with Blood Diamond as Lead), and Wahlberg got the Oscar nomination which was a pretty big surprise (from what I remember, anyway).
Dino -- unfortunately i don't think Jackson was anywhere close for DJANGO. I think this site was the only place that gave him a prize even though he understood and justified the odd tone of that picture more than any other actor (and frankly was running circles around all of them. EVERYONE was all about Waltz (and to a lesser extent DiCaprio) which is so weird.
Dino: The question mark is that many critics observe that Depp's character, though not a hyper exuberant cartoon, comes off as pretty two dimensional. At this point? Depp's only a hard outside shot of even getting that nod, and the win is down to DiCaprio or, at the outside, Fassbender. (Damon has an Oscar, even if not for acting and Caine already has two.) My view of the top 10?
1. Leo DiCaprio, The Revenant (If the film itself is Crazy Heart style "Mediocre!" and not the "prestige Man of Steel" that it could be, Leo has kind of been around too long to not have a statue already.)
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (If The Revenant is bad enough that no one wants DiCaprio nominated for it, you would need a huge come from behind surprise to pry that gold from Fassbender's cold Jobsian hands.)
3. Michael Caine, Youth (Not only do they like Caine when he lucks into a plumb role, but it would break the tie for "who's the actor nominated in the most consecutive decades" between him and Jack Nicholson.)
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (As you mentioned, no one was too impressed with this, but it's exactly the kind of movie that gets, implicitly, forth or fifth place acting nominations.)
5. Will Smith, Concussion
6. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton (The Academy got too much flack for it's all white acting line-up last year and though Benicio will count a little, a little more than just ONE couldn't hurt. Plus, it's not like either has to be fictional because we've already got Caine locked and loaded for our one 100% fictional nominee in Lead Actor. Which one we get all depends on the reception to Concussion.)
7. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (Remember, Demian Bichir pulled off that total surprise in 2011. Geza's probably way closer than fifteenth from pulling this off at least.)
8. Matt Damon, The Martian (It's kind of a wild card, and I buy it's somewhere in there, but I'm not entirely sure now.)
9. Joseph Gordon-Levitt, The Night Before (He's been in the mainstream eye much longer than Hardy (nineteen years to Hardy's five) and has been building respect for eleven years to Hardy's eight. With Snowden gone from this year and The Walk as an unnecessary movie, this is probably the more likely of the two to get an acting nomination. At the very least, it's his second Comedy Globe nod as a re-teaming of him and Jonathan Levine.)
10. Ian McKellan, Mr. Holmes (He's stepping up his campaign, sure, and an out gay actor will win eventually, but though I buy your one to five, this is the only one of your six-ten that I believe is actually close to the 6-10.)
I'm fine with DiCaprio or Fassbender winning. I like them both and both have done Oscar worthy work in the past even just recently in Wolf and Shame.