Thursday
Nov172016
Oscar Hunches?
Thursday, November 17, 2016 at 12:20PM 
We're nearing the home stretch. I plan to jam in about five screenings this weekend (Fences, Hidden Figures, Live By Night and whatever else comes up) before updating the charts so plan on seeing those chart updates across the board on Sunday evening.
Any strong hunches about the upcoming race you want to share?
Reader Comments (41)
This year's Best Actress field sure did narrow quick. Your top five are an embarrassment of actressing riches so no complaints. It just seems impossible that anyone besides Portman, Bening, Stone, Negga, Huppert, Streep, or Adams could sneak in.
In hindsight, I don't think this category is too crowded for Viola Davis at all. If any actress in any role could muscle her way into the category (to claim her rightful, unimpeachable space) it's Davis in Fences.
Anyway, I expect that Streep will occupy a Helen Mirren space this year. SAG and BAFTA nominations are nearly guaranteed to her. It'll come down to a last-minute Hail Mary for a pick like Huppert—not unprecedented but a certain nailbiter.
A BAFTA nom will be key for Huppert. And she needs to campaign for real.
A supporting actor nod for Fences
An actress nod (either lead or supporting) for Hidden Figures
Another passover for Ryan Gosling
I still have so many yet to see, but damn, I'm thinking how wonderful it would be to see Tyne Daly in the running. What a lovely, subtle turn.
Hacksaw Ridge is this year's stealth candidate. Hoping for nominations for The Handmaiden in the Screenplay and Visuals categories.
Hidden Figures makes a strong showing last minute disrupting the Best Actress race..
Portman, Bening, Stone are all locked in... I think that Henson will secure spot #4, and although I think that Negga was in that spot with Streep/Adams battling for fifth... I think that Negga will be a surprise snub. With these well known actresses in powerhouse performances I don't think an understated subtle performance of an actress that is not well known will be able to hold the place (although most years without question).
I think it will be Portman, Bening, Stone, Henson, Adams
Kills me to say it, but I also think our beloved Kidman is in trouble.
Davis, Williams, and Harris are near locks IMO, and Kidman is VERY strong in 4th place... but I think Hidden Figures will get a nomination in. I *want* to think that one of them knocks Gerwig, but after BOTH performances in loved films, and the academy looking over Kidman quite a few times... I'm nervous for her.
Yeah-I'm with the sentiment here. I think Hidden Figures is being underestimated. It looks classy, stars actors that AMPAS will recognize, and genuinely looks like a fun time at the movies, which is kind of what we're all going for with the current world environment. I think it could seriously contend in Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and maybe a couple of tech nods (maybe two for music?).
I have a hunch this is the year December returns with a vengeance. Other than La La Land, the Venice-Telluride-Toronto pipeline didn't produce any slam dunks and it doesn't really feel like a best picture winner in the post-election climate (although it definitely gets multiple nominations). September/October was a letdown over previous years, - with Sully and Moonlight the only BP threats. Save Viola Davis, the acting field still seems very fluid which almost always creates a recency effect favoring late year entries. If there was an early year release that had near-universal acclaim, like The Grand Budapest Hotel, I could see that rising, but the only movie that fits that bill is Hail Caesar, and it wasn't liked quite enough for real awards traction.
So expect Silence, Fences, Live by Night (especially in crafts), Hidden Figures, and maybe even Gold to be major Oscar players.
Best actress is so crowded, they should just expand the category and have a fashion show break with all the nominees coming on stage and talking to the audience answering questions.
I'm sensing a third Oscar for Mr. Washington after seeing Fences last night. When a man de-glams (I mean, wow) and directs/produces at the same time, with results in the good to excellent range (YMMV), the Academy will take notice.
Another hunch is that the Academy nominates Viola Davis in Best Actress, ignoring her campaign. (The only way to consider her supporting is if you consider all the characters except Denzel's as supporting, à la Death of a Salesman).
A Streep non nomination looks increasingly likely to me,I always feel that the 20th nomination when it arrives will have to be POWERHOUSE.
Damn you, Paul Outlaw! I knew there was a hunch I was forgetting: Viola as lead instead of supporting. Either way she's placed, I still say she and Denzel take home his-and-hers Oscars.
Here's my prediction: Casey Affleck wins best actor.
Hidden Figures will be a crowd pleaser and will do quite well. My current hunch is Portman, Stone, Bening, Henson with either Streep or Negga for 5th. Loving is starting to seem like a non factor at this point.
I also expect Jackie to do better than what people think. 8+ nominations. I also think Arrival won't do as well. Adams was good in it but my hunch is that she is sitting this year out.
"Fences" will do very well, but I think "Lion" will be the surprise. I can see it for picture, supporting actor and supporting actress for sure. Garth Davis is probably too new to sneak into director, but who knows? He would be deserving I think.
This isn't a hunch, but it's striking to me how well both the 2008 Best Supporting Actress Nominees and/or the 2010 Best Actress Nominees will be represented in this year's race.
My wild, baseless hunch: a critical surge on year-end lists that gives "The Lobster" juuuuust enough juice to sneak into Original Screenplay.
This competitive Best Actress year won't look so competitive after the critics groups, BAFTA, SAG and the Globes have their say. It will largely be a sweep (by either Stone, or more likely, Portman)
Gabe: My screenplay hunch for a while (my 10 for Adapted and Nat's 10 share all but The Light Between Oceans) has been that Deadpool is likely to sneak into Adapted. The ONLY thing I imagine would block that would be Moonlight muscling in there. My acting hunch is Keaton over Edgerton.
Taraji P Henson Blind Sides Best Actress Bullock style and wins the whole thing.
I've had a strong feeling that Zootopia could make a play for Best Picture or at least Best Original Screenplay.
Wild, out there prediction? Sully is snubbed in all major categories. Eastwood's political leanings and the left over hurt from the election make it hard for some in Hollywood to vote for him.
In a repeat of the musical Tonys - all acting winners are African American - Washington, Henson, Ali, Davis. OR Washington, Davis, Ali, Harris or Monae.
Can I root for an Emma Stone AND Ryan Gosling snubbing? Those two overrated hacks winning Best Actor/Best Actress is so emblematic of Trump being our president.
I haven't seen the film so I shouldn't talk, but I have a feeling Natalie Portman may be in for a snub. I don't see Henson making the list either.
My favorites so far are Washington (or Affleck), Bening (or Stone), Mahershala (or Grant) and Davis (or Harris).
With all the talk of a weak Best Actor field, why not skip the category fraud and campaign Hugh Grant in Lead? He's clearly the lead and has the most screen time of all the actors in the film.
I think Davis is going lead, too. Sometimes voters overtun the studio's placement.
And I think Jackie is our BP winner.
Picture, Director, Editing, Screenplay, maybe Score?
I haven't seen Jackie or La La Land yet, but I have a sense of how people are categorizing their performances. I think the election results tip the scales in Best Actress to Portman. In a way she can reflect the grieving that most of us are going through. But Stone could also benefit if the Academy goes in the "We will dream no matter what" direction.
I know modern settings don't usually lead to costume nods, but I think Arianne Phillips might just sneak into the conversation for her work on Nocturnal Animals.
Whatever your thoughts on Ford's latest, you have to admit everything looks meticulously chosen and deliberately styled.
B.actress: bening
B.actor: keaton
B.s.actress: davis
B.s.actor: neeson
BA nominees:
Bening
Portman
Stone
Huppert
Adams
Not exactly a hunch: to my knowledge, no one has ever been nominated for Best Director for a documentary. Is there some rule against that?
Ava DuVernay, 13th.
By the way, has anyone seen Allied yet?
I think Streep gets in, and I genuinely think it'll be her best turn to get nominated since Prada.
Not so much a hunch as a bone to pick: I'd caution anyone from casting this year's Oscar race in light of Trump's election. Even if all Academy voters hate Trump, which they most certainly do not, their reaction to his election would vary. I could see them opting for La La Land as escapist entertainment, as happened in 1976, the year of the bicentennial when Rocky ("rah rah America") was up against Network and All the President's Men ("what is wrong with us?"). Alternately, they could see the Best Picture race as a way to highlight the struggle of minorities and go with Moonlight. Or, of course, they could do something else entirely.
As for hunches, several fringe contenders I'm currently betting on: Loving in BP, Negga in Actress, Hell or High Water or The Lobster in Original Screenplay, and Fire at Sea in Foreign Language Film.
Loving makes the switch to Adapted Screenplay last minute, a left-field supporting actress gets thrown in by SAG and ends up getting in with all the pre-requisites (Mirren in Eye in the Sky, Nyong'o in Katwe, Shannon in Other People), and Andrew Garfield gets in for Hacksaw Ridge (maybe Silence). I would also suspect Hanks, Edgerton, and Gosling of missing out in Best Actor, and Loving ultimately only landing with one or two nominations, Henson being a force in Best Actress, Moana snub for Best Animated Feature.
"Emma Stone will get in because everybody loves Emma Stone".
Well, no. Many people (including myself) have not yet forgiven Emma Stone for playing an Asian Hawaiian in Cameron Crowe's Aloha. We were supposed to think that was funny and cute.
And the chirpy attitude of "That's all in the past, don't be a bore by bringing it up" isn't endearing either.
In La La Land, she plays an actress who has trouble in auditions? Try being an actual Asian American actress.
Duncan: 1. The only published book on the Lovings is a, presumably untranslated, French volume that came out right before the movie was about to start filming, so Loving probably CAN'T switch. 2. I'd guess Mirren only gets in if Rickman ALSO gets in, so I'd say that's probably unlikely. 3. Maybe. 4. Outside shot at best. 5. Hacksaw Ridge sounds like more of a performance, but Silence is probably going to be the more respected movie. Could go either way. 6. Gosling, Edgerton AND Hanks all missing? I'd guess not all three of those (Edgerton diciest) wind up on the ballot, but I'd also guess not all three of those wind up missing. 7. Hidden Figures sounds like an inspirational drama, and those go down easiest with the Academy if the public, at least, is clearly on their side before ballots have to be cast. Hidden Figures as a successful November wide release? Could have, like The Blind Side, become a force. Hidden Figures as a qualifying? Probably walks away with 0 noms. 8. Moana missing for Animated Feature? Yeah, after reading some of the reviews, I kind of see that MAYBE happening now.
I agree that everyone is underestimating Hidden Figures. The films that break out in a crowded year-end marketplace will have an advantage, and I've been seeing constant references on Facebook to this movie now for months. Perhaps it's just popular among my demographic, but the public seems much more aware of it and enthused about it than, say, Lion, which appears invisible at this point.
I also think that Jackie will have an advantage. I've been watching The Crown on Netflix because there's something comforting right now about watching such a young female leader with grace and dignity who respectfully followed rules and norms. Jackie could have the same effect for people.
Paul -- i have seen ALLIED. Not going to be an Oscar player but I thought it was fine.
Suzanne and others -- i'm just not sure i see it with Hidden Figures, primarily because of what Volvagia just mentioned as the qualifying release. "crowd pleasers" reguire crowds to get people excited about them but when you're only doing a qualifying release... it seems like a weird tactic but we'll see. I'm seeing the film tomorrow so i'l have a better idea if they can pull it off.
Nat - too bad. I love when Cotillard swoops in for an Oscar nomination.
Also seeing Hidden Fugures tomorrow. Hadn't given it much Oscar consideration until these comments.