31 Days Until Oscar
Thursday, January 26, 2017 at 5:45PM Today's magic number is 31. Can you believe it took Christian Bale 31 movies to win Oscar's love?
He debuted in the Steven Spielberg film Empire of the Sun (1987) which was nominated for six Oscars so they knew of him straight from the get-go. But nothing seemed to do it -- not literary adaptations (Little Women, The Portrait of a Lady), neither relationship dramas (Metroland, Laurel Canyon), nor glam rock epics (Velvet Goldmine). Of course it didn't happen for superheroes or serial killers (Batman, American Psycho) but even war dramas (Empire of the Sun, Rescue Dawn) didn't do it. And then suddenly The Fighter (2010) did. He crushed his competition on the way to a win.
Sometimes not being nominated but being routinely excellent is a good way to build crazy momentum for a win. Which working actor do you think is heading straight to an Oscar win as soon as they're finally nominated?
Reader Comments (56)
Same happened with PSH. Blunt of Johannson next?
If Ewan McGregor ever has a role that Oscar should bite at and it's pretty phenomenal he might just win. The trick here might be him just getting the nomination.
Amy Adams
Annette Bening
Ryan Gosling
Michelle Pfeiffer
Hopefully Emmy Blunt!!
Drew Barrymore
Ben Foster
Colin Farrell
Joel Edgerton
Ewan McGregor
Jason Bateman
I think there are quite a few that with the right role could turn their first nomination into a win:
-Donald Sutherland
-John Goodman
-ScarJo
-Gugu Mbatha-Raw
-Oscar Isaac
-Emily Blunt
-Maybe big TV stars like Alison Janney or Claire Danes
ScarJo.
Colin Farrell without a doubt.
I second Drew Barrymore
I second John Goodman. He's worked with everyone and across an extraordinary variety of roles that are often lauded. When it (hopefully) finally happens, he'll be tough to beat.
I second ScarJo and Colin Farrell.
And add Sam Rockwell and Guy Pearce.
John Goodman wins automatically the moment he gets a nomination, just like JK Simmons did. He is a beloved, enduring actor who has been excellent for three decades now. He only needs a single shot at a win.
Drew Barrymore is a great one. If Grey Gardens had been theatrically released, she would've been the only person able to give Mo'Nique a run for her money (you know they would've made her ass supporting).
Scarlett Johansson, probably Emily Blunt.
Kirsten Dunst will [hopefully] be nominated, but won't win.
Other than that, I don't know. It's not always about the actor, it's also about the right role and/or the right race aka little competition.
Also, Nathaniel, just gotta say posts like this are why I love your site. You take the love for awards shows and make it interesting, fresh, and fun where other sites like AwardsDaily are so predictable and always boring cut-and-dry statistics or political statements about the Oscar race. So thank you.
The academy's bias against young men is ridiculous except if you're playing a real person. Bale's American psycho was the perfect performance to nominate. I always like
To fantasize about his psycho and Nicole's Suzanne Stone going on a date and making hot dangerous love.
Beside the obvious Donald Sutherland I'd say maybe Richard Gere and Steve Buscemi,
Yeah Gere, that's a good one too.
Jamie Lee Curtis
Michael Pena, maybe?
I second the above responses on Barrymore, Buscemi, Janney, and Goodman. I'd also add Margo Martindale if she ever can get past the category fraud.
It's a tougher question than it seems. I've been thinking for a while and I don't dare to say any name!
I guess it used to be "easier" before, when it was all about the movies. Now the focus has widened. Who would have thought a year ago that Remi from House of Cards would end up winning an Oscar?
Oscar Isaac and Brendan Gleeson
Lots of good suggestions here. I especially like the idea of Donald Sutherland, Scarlett Johansson, Ewan McGregor, Richard Gere. An example from nearly 30 years ago that came good was Sean Connery, and around the same time I'd have put forward Roger Moore, but I guess he's just going to have to settle for being the coolest actor on the planet.
Elle Fanning
Maybe Sarah Paulson
Michael B. Jordan
Madonna! they owe her for Evita ;-)
Scar-Jo 3:16!!!!!!!
Joseph - Elle Fanning is a good call. 5-10 years from now in a prestige Best Picture nominee, she could be a slam dunk Best Actress winner.
Also not a big fan of Jen Aniston, but I could see her winning if she breaks through for a
nomination.
I thought for years and years that once Alicia Vikander gets a breakthrough in US, she will for sure get oscarlove right away and that's exacty what happened :)
Next one may be:
Roland Møller from Denmark
or
Alessandro Borghi from Italy.
But of the ones already mentioned here, I would second to good chances of Blunt, Johansson, McGregor, Isaac, And would like to add: Kate Dickie, Haylay Squires, Jena Malone, Riley Keough, Margot Robbie, Eileen Atkins,...
Steve Buscemi
Jim Carrey
Emily Blunt
Krsten Dunst
Idris Elba
Zhang Ziyi
Ben Affleck (...ugh)
Michael B Jordan
Antonio Banderas
Gael Garcia Bernal
hopefully.... some day for some of these guys
Mandy Patinkin and Christian Slater come to mind.
Scar-Jo hasn't been "routinely excellent" - too many misses, too many shitty Superhero-movies.
Though she was great in Ghost World, Lost In Translation and Under The Skin.
That doesn't mean, of course, she's not every bit as deserving of a nom/win if she does knock it out of the park in the future.
Sam Rockwell is a genius - he just has to land the right part, in the right movie - at the right time!
Robert Downey Jr. is a genius too, but he's too set on making money - he doesn't seem interested in appearing in movies that'll make an Oscar nom a possibility. But if he did apply himself to smaller and artistic movies again, I'm sure he would win an Oscar in no time.
Joaquin Phoenix will get one one day, I'm sure.
Gary Oldman is too good NOT to get one at some point.
Just has to find the right part, in the right movie - at the right time!
The only Fanning who should ever even be considered for an Oscar is Dakota! she's infinitely more talented that her kid sister.
Christina Hendricks should get one, of course -
but she won't, of course!
Because Hollywood doesn't know what to do with her, and they will probably never figure out what to do with her.
But she's soooo good -
and if she only got that one juicy part that could show off exactly how good, she would be golden!
Migs, I think the Academy has rewarded Ben Affleck enough, I doubt he will ever get nominated / win
I hope Greta Gerwig!
Madonna. I am still trying to get up off the floor from laughing so much!!
Likely to get that win one day
Amy Adams
Joaquin Phoenix
Mark Ruffalo
Likely to finally get that overdue nomination
Colin Farrell
Emily Blunt
John Goodman
I hope some day Ewan McGregor wins an Oscar for playing Robert Palmer making the Addicted to Love videoclip. The resamblence is amazing! Now that is the right role for an excellent underrated actor.
Kevin Bacon
Christina Ricci
People's answers keep throwing me off!!
I believe the question is who are most likely to get their first nomination AND win the academy award on that first nomination.
You always kinda want for those "Wait, this is their FIRST nomination???" folks to walk away with some kind of glory, but it seems like it seldom works out that way. Jennifer Jason Leigh, Barbara Hershey...heck, Lauren Bacall, for pity's sake.
Emily Blunt would be my pick. To these eyes, she's never been better than she was in her breakthrough performance in My Summer of Love, but the film flew totally under the radar and she was never a part of the Awards conversation. Since then, she's been close on quite a few occasions. The films she does often feel like the type of second-or-third rate material a lot of other more hig-profile, Oscar-baity actresses probably took a pass on. For some reason, I think about Jean Simmons - Pauline Kael called her "the most quietly commanding actress Hollywood ever trashed" - in that she doesn't seem likely to ever quite break into that upper echelon, and the films and roles she gets are seldom commensurate with her talent. Personally, I think she has a damn site more talent than a lot of our A-listers, so I'm hoping her moment will come.
Ewan McGregor as Robert Palmer with Tilda Swinton as ALL the background "musicians" would be amazing!
Based on history, the trend seems to be that you are most likely to win on your first nomination if A) you are an older, verteran, character actor, male - widely known and beloved in the industry or B) a young, unknown female, playing a loved character, or in a loved film.
Some of the one nomination / one winners are -
MEN
Art Carney
Lee Marvin
Tim Robbins
Chris Cooper
Sean connery
Geroge burns
Ben Johnson
Don Ameche
WOMEN
Tatum ONeil
Sandy Dennis
Anna Paquin
Cloris Leachman
Linda Hunt
Jennifer Hudson
Rachel Weiz
Louise Fletcher
Marlee Matlin
Mira Sorvino
Obvioulsy there are exceptions like:
Jeremy Irons & F Murray Abraham (young)
Brenda Fricker & Shirley Booth (older)
But overall, it seems like veteran ladies rarely win on their first try (but the guys do!). Does this mean anything or just what we already know (that our veteran actresses are not appreciated)??
Judy Greer. Billy Crudup. Saarsgard. Rose Byrne.
I'd add that Colin Firth just barely misses the mark on this test. He lost for A Single Man, but in hindsight it feels like he won consecutive Oscars. Everyone's satisfied with Bridges' win but Firth's heat and moment arguably crowned a Best Picture winner.
Oh. And of course, Robin Wright would have a tremendous "finally!" narrative.
Emily Blunt
Ewan McGregor
Scarlett Johansson
John Goodman
Drew Barrymore
Joel Edgerton (should have been this year)
Rose Byrne
Peter Saarsgard (his lack of buzz for Jackie is depressing)
Robin Wright
And of course Donal Sutherland.
These are only from people who have never been nominated. Don't even get me started for Amy Adams, Annette Bening, Sigourney Weaver, Liam Neeson, and Glenn Close(!)
S Epatha Merkerson
I'd guess there lots who'd like to see the following talented actors suddenly ace a great part in an Oscar-friendly movie, finally get their first nomination, then walk off with the trophy:
Elias Koteas
Jason Statham
Daniel Bruhl
Billy Crudup
Mark Strong
Tom Hiddleston
I know I'd be beaming if Michael Angarano,J.Smith-Cameron, Charlie Cox or Elisabeth Rohm
ever got the big prize. And I don't think Paul Rudd's ever been nominated. Wouldn't a win for him be cheered coast to coast?
There's like a Royal Quartet of Grand Dames of the Supporting Actress category. I imagine what would have happened if we were in the Old-Hollywood Studio System, where they's be under contract, churning out 2 or 3 films a year. They'd be consistently nominated, like Agnes Moorehead, Ethel Barrymore, Anne Revere or Gladys Cooper.
They are all sooooo deserving.
Catherine Keener
Patricia Clarkson
Joan Allen
Margo Martindale
I'd think Goodman is the likeliest of the people who've come up here. As Ellsworth notes it's likely to be an older guy so Goodman, or maybe years from now a Ben Foster or Daniel Bruhl.
Btw, I join Ulrich's appreciation of/thoughts on Christina Hendricks. If only.