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« The Oscar Week with Haddish in New York & Chastain in Palm Springs | Main | BAFTA's 2017 Rising Star Nominees »
Friday
Jan052018

Producer's Guild Nominations: Wonder Woman is this year's Deadpool

by Nathaniel R

The Producer's Guild, by "virtue" of the fact that they have more nominees than Oscar each year, often get fairly close to "predicting" the Best Picture list. This year they've chosen 11 titles. Recency bias surely helped give Molly's Game a winning hand and the PGA's love of the blockbuster delivered for Wonder Woman which is a good call here since it did help define the year and superhero movies are very much producer events. Last year Deadpool was nominated at the PGA and was the only film to drop off on Oscar nominaiton morning. The other 9 pictures selected are all then looking strong as Best Picture possibilities for the Oscar nominations on January 23rd. Nominations and more commentary after the jump...

FEATURE

 

  • The Big Sick Producers: Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel
  • Call Me By Your Name Producers: Peter Spears, Luca Guadagnino, Emilie Georges, Marco Morabito
  • Dunkirk Producers: Emma Thomas, Christopher Nolan
  • Get Out Producers: Sean McKittrick & Edward H. Hamm, Jr., Jason Blum, Jordan Peele
  • I, Tonya Producers: Bryan Unkeless, Steven Rogers, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley
  • Lady Bird Producers: Scott Rudin, Eli Bush, Evelyn O’Neill
  • Molly’s Game Producers: Mark Gordon, Amy Pascal, Matt Jackson
  • The Post Producers: Amy Pascal, Steven Spielberg, Kristie Macosko Krieger
  • The Shape Of Water Producers: Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Producers: Graham Broadbent & Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh
  • Wonder Woman Producers: Charles Roven & Richard Suckle, Zack Snyder & Deborah Snyder

 

So how much of this list will transfer to Oscar? If you exclude the two mild "surprises" (Molly's Game and Wonder Woman) that's 9 pictures which is, generally speaking, the max we get as Oscar nominees for Best Picture. That said the PGA generally misses a title that Oscar loves more. Here are the differences in recent years.

Differences in PGA to Oscar in modern supersized Best Picture years 
2017: TBA
2016: (PGA only) Deadpool / (Oscar only) none -- all other nominations matched.
2015: (PGA only) Ex Machina, Sicario, Straight Outta Compton / (Oscar only) Room 
2014: (PGA only) Foxcatcher, Gone Girl, Nightcrawler / (Oscar only) Selma
2013: (PGA only) Blue Jasmine, Saving Mr Banks / (Oscar only) Philomena
2012: (PGA only) Moonrise Kingdom, Skyfall / (Oscar only) Amour
2011: (PGA only) Bridesmaids, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Ides of March / (Oscar only) The Tree of Life, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
2010: (PGA only) The Town / (Oscar only) Winter's Bone
2009: (PGA only) Invictus, Star Trek / (Oscar only) The Blind Side, A Serious Man

What can we glean from this? It's really tough to say actually. The only easily visible difference is that the PGA are slighly more apt to love you if you are a big hit -- notice the PGA only nods for blockbusters like Straight Outta Compton, Skyfall, The Town and Gone Girl. Elsewhere though it doesn't always make any kind of "narrative" sense... though this probably isn't good news for big hits like Baby Driver (which would have made a perfectly understandable PGA honor).

Arguably the highest profile Best Picture hopefuls that the PGA excluded this year are Darkest Hour, The Florida Project, Mudbound, and Phantom Thread... if any of those do prevail on Oscar nomination morning, I'm assuming it will be The Florida Project. How about you?

ANIMATED FEATURE

 

  • The Boss Baby Producer: Ramsey Naito
  • Coco Producer: Darla K. Anderson
  • Despicable Me 3 Producers: Chris Meledandri, Janet Healy
  • Ferdinand Producers: Lori Forte, Bruce Anderson
  • The Lego Batman Movie Producers: Dan Lin, Phil Lord & Christopher Miller

The Producers Guild always sticks with comic-adventure American CG 3D toons so this list is not a surprise. The real question is will Oscar continue their embrace of diversity of aesthetic in their parallel category or will their new rules make their lists just a "which computer generated American comedy cartoons will make it?" game each year. 

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Reader Comments (34)

I think Phantom Thread will be stronger than people are assuming call it the DDL effect.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

I'm thinking there will be a surge for Phantom Thread at the Oscars. At least I hope so.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterRaul Borja

Nathaniel - Do PGA nominees have to be American films? Or at least have some American involvement (Call My By Your Name)?

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterTyler

I too think it will be Phantom Thread. Although now I'm starting to take I, Tonya more seriously as a best pic contender, with its showing here and WGA.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

Seems unlikely Wonder Woman and Molly's Game translate this to a BP nom, but it's a good omen for Chastain and Sorkin. If movies like Darkest Hour or Mudbound were going to be BP nominees they would've sneaked in here. Those were the biggest losers.

On the other hand, Florida Project is exactly the type of movie they ignore but resurfaces at Oscar later. It's a movie than can afford guild snubs. A comparison to Winter's Bone, Beasts of the Southern Wild or even Room seems really appropriate. Note that 2 of those even got director nominations (without DGA as well).

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterSteve_Man

Absolutely bonkers to see MOLLY'S GAME in there over MUDBOUND.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAndrew Carden

Steve -- i was thinking that too but maybe FLORIDA PROJECT didnt break out quite enough. In the end its only at $5 million which is a lot for the kind of movie it is but not a lot even for a tiny Oscarable indie -- all the movies you correctly cited made more... though I guess ROOM had made almost identical to Florida before its nomination.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterNATHANIEL R

All the money in the World has some goodwill and curiosity factor that may propel it to a few nominations,day by day i'm feeling more confident in Plummer and Williams both surprising at the Oscars,reviews here in the UK are v good for the film and both of those stars.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered Commentermarkgordonuk

I agree with @Steve about "The Florida Project", I think it will be a non-guild nominee that will make the Best Picture nominees shortlist. It's a very heartbreaking movie and it can get enough #1 votes.
.
And I would also start thinking about the possibility of "All the Money in the World" in the Best Picture race. It's all about this nod would represent: Hollywood can survive without the abusers. I'm predicting "All the Money in the World" in Best Supporting Actor (Plummer) and Best Adapted Screenplay, with Williams as my #7 choice for Best Actress.
.
And I'm still praying for not having "I, Tonya" getting a Best Picture nomination, just... I mean, just don't do it AMPAS

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEd

@NATHANIEL Yeah, I'd say none of them were genuine indie breakouts, or at least not huge. Baker, Dafoe and cast are out there campaigning which helps them out a lot and it's a movie that really drives passion.

I actually would continue the Beasts and Room comparisons as far as to say I also think Baker can sneak in too(but wouldn't actually predict it...yet).

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterSteve_Man

I just realized 6/10 movies here are led by women. That is definitely a huge improvement and a lovely surprise.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

I really love The Florida Project. Therefore, based on past experiences, it appears to be doomed, doomed I tell you.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterken s

Does this mean I, TONYA is now a more likely Best Picture nominee than DARKEST HOUR?

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterSteve G

Darkest hour is only a best picture nom if the love for Oldman's performance is so strong they nominate the movie as well. So yes

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterZo

"but it is interesting to me how offended people are by THREE BILLBOARDS while loving all over I TONYA when both present such a toxic cast of characters and expect you to laugh at / with root for / while looking away (when its convenient) from the toxicity"

Nat, preach! I hated BOTH for the exact same reasons you tweeted.

Is that so HARD to understand that you can't have it both ways with toxic people? You cannot make a punchbag of (distasteful) jokes out of the "drama" and get away with it because your indulging on the viiolence you're supposedly are condemning in the same film?
Or you don't? Not to mention the tonal disaster of the former and the cliched-ridden of the latter- Both present low-class America as "Three Stooges" came to smalltown.

What are you laughing at, really? You need to be a genius prankster to do it right. Sorry, MacDonah and Gillespie aren't. They both try to reach for pick Coen scarcasm or Tarantino verbal punch lines but fall really short.

There's no Policeman in the world who makes Oscar Wilde "dick jokes" and looks funny!

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterchofer

I should have said: There's no Policeman in the world who makes Oscar Wilde's jokes. Period.
That's the storyteller pulling very gross strings, not the character. There's plenty of that on both films.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterchofer

I meant peak Coen or Tarantino, sorry.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterchofer

I Tonya is doing better with precursors than I expected and this is a huge get for Molly's Game. I still don't picture either getting into BP though. (Can you imagine if all five leading actresses were in BP nominees? I'm assuming that's never happened before.) I still think passion votes will sneak The Florida Project in but I'm not completely confident. This does confirm for me, though, that Darkest Hour could be out.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered Commentereurocheese

eurocheese: It has happened before. 1939 and 1977 come to mind. There may be other years too.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEdward L.

Edward L / eurocheese - Also 1934 when there were only three Best Actress nominees and 12 (!) Best Picture nominees

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterken s

They went out of their damn way to not nominate The Florida Project.
I also hope Phantom Thread will get a nom surge at the Oscars.
Loving the I, Tonya reemergence. It was amazing. Margot and Allison actually have a shot in winning Oscars.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterCraver

ken s / eurocheese: And 1940.

For the men, it has happened six times: 1935 (though we have to ignore write-in candidate Paul Muni in Black Fury), 1942, 1943, 1964, 1966 and 2013.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterEdward L.

Oh yeah, and it also happened with the actresses in 1940

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterken s

Things r looking bad for Darkest Hour n Mudbound! Oldman might hav to Still Alice his way to the Oscar.

The Big Sick, I Tonya n Molly's Game n even Wonder Woman r rising in stock! I tink The Florida Project will still make the cut as its the kinda Indie voters get behind.

I've a hunch we'll hav 10 nominees this yr given the wealth o so many critical choices n box office darlins. At this moment, i tink they r the following:

The Big Sick
Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards
Wonder Woman, alt I Tonya

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterClaran

This makes me happy--the nod for Molly's Game is great news for Jessica. Please, let her get in this year.

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered Commenterbrookesboy

I suppose it’s nice they nominated 11 instead of 10. Am I the only one who thinks Jessica Chastain could surprise and knock out Margot Robbie?

January 5, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterTom Ford

Robbie is having a homerun with the rising profile of I, Tonya,

If there anyone Chastain might knock off, its the Queen!! Sry but Meryl seems like the weakest link now.

January 6, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterClaran

This is such an odd list. As it relates to Oscar, I genuinely can't picture MOLLY'S GAME, I TONYA, WONDER WOMAN or THE BIG SICK getting a lot of #1 votes, but I guess weirder things have happened.

January 6, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterGlenn Dunks

Glenn: I can absolutely envision all of those films getting #1 votes.

One (or both) of the following is about to become an Oscar nominee. Think about it.
Judd Apatow
Zack Snyder

January 6, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterGuestguestguest

Best Actress is gonna be a heartbreaker this year. With Dench, Chaxtain, and Williams surging who do they take out? Am I crazy to be worried for Ronan?

January 6, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMichael R

@Michael R.

It may be Sally Hawkins. Remember what happened to Amy Adams last year?

January 6, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterAaron

Best actor and best actress are going to be a heartbreaker no matter what. If Streep is snubbed, it would make people think the alt-right smear campaign against her worked (and I would boycott the show). She is so great as Kay Graham.

January 6, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterJono

PHANTOM THREAD seems the most AMOUR or TREE OF LIFE of the almosts, so I think it's the most likely to get in!

January 6, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMarsha Mason

Aaron : so true. And Hawkins could split votes with herself if some people nominate her for Maudie.

January 7, 2018 | Unregistered CommenterMichael R

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