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« Producers Guild Nominations | Main | GALECA Favours "The Favourite" as Nomination Leader »
Friday
Jan042019

Our Golden Globe Predictions!

by Nathaniel R

Did you know that the Globes could have a greater impact on the Oscar nominations than usual? It's all in the calendar. See the morning after the Globes, Oscar nomination balloting finally  begins. The dates don't always line up that exactly, so the Globes will definitely be fresh in mind when AMPAS begins voting. This is neither good nor bad, or rather it isn't either of things... yet. Let us pray that the HFPA uses their powers for good this year.

Yours truly (Nathaniel) does not follow TV as closely as he does movies but the Globes can be all over the place anyway, so this is rather like throwing darts while doing Bird Box cosplay... but it's fun! Predictions are after the jump...

TELEVISION PREDICTIONS

Supporting Actor TV 

  • Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method (S1)
  • Kieran Culkin, Succession (S1)
  • Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
  • Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
  • Henry Winkler, Barry (S1)

Prediction: Winkler won the Emmy but we're going to go ahead and guess Ben Whishaw since he's also in Mary Poppins Returns which the Globe voters liked
Spoiler: They might go all in for Gianni Versace though so Edgar Ramirez

Supporting Actress TV  

Prediction: Alex Borstein
Spoiler: Penelope Cruz if they're all in for Versace.
Gripe: Can we reiterate again how it's completely unjust that TV's leading actors of either sex get three categories but the supporting actors of either sex from any type of show have to share just one! SAG also deals it dirty like this and both show you why Category Fraud is such a rampant thing; it exposes the truth that people don't respect or care about supporting actors, only the stars.

 Actor in a Limited Series

Prediction: Darren Criss
Spoiler: Hugh Grant, who I'd actually predict if Criss didn't feel like a steamroller for awards for his gay sociopath

Actress in a Limited Series

  • Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
  • Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
  • Connie Britton, Dirty John
  • Laura Dern, The Tale
  • Regina King, Seven Seconds

Prediction: This is an extremely tough call because the HFPA are huge fans of both Amy Adams (9 nominations and 2 wins) and Laura Dern (7 nominations and 4 wins. Plus she's a former Miss Golden Globe). I'm guessing the voting margin will be razor thin but Amy Adams because her show got more press
Spoiler: Laura Dern

 

Limited Series 

Prediction: Gianni Versace
Spoiler: A Very English Scandal

Drama Series, Actor

  • Jason Bateman, Ozark (S1)
  • Stephan James, Homecoming (S1)
  • Richard Madden, Bodyguard (S1)
  • Billy Porter, Pose (S1)
  • Matthew Rhys, The Americans (S6)

Prediction: This genuinely feels like a toss-up and a five way race to me. The Globes love fresh meat so Stephan James or Richard Madden are possible "surprise win" threats. Billy Porter has a showy role. Jason Bateman is a Globe favourite (4 noms / 1 win)... so since I think it'll be close we'll give the edge to Matthew Rhys for their last opportunity with The Americans, even though the Globes love first seasons more than just about anything.
Spoiler: Anyone from a first season, but let's say Stephan James on the strength of also being in If Beale Street... and because the Globes love to honor new celebrities before anyone else does.

 

Drama Series, Actress

  • Caitronia Balfe, Outlander (S4)
  • Moss, The Handmaid's Tale (S2) *won last year*
  • Oh, Killing Eve (S1)
  • Roberts, Homecoming (S1)
  • Keri Russell, The Americans (S6)  

Prediction: Another tough call. Make history with Sandra Oh, go all in for The Americans via Keri Russell on their last shot, or continue the Julia Roberts love fest (9 nominations / 3 wins). I'm going to toss a coin and say Julia Roberts
Spoiler: Sandra Oh

 

Drama Series 

 

  • The Americans (FX) season 6 *first nomination for series*
  • Bodyguard (Netflix) season 1
  • Homecoming (Amazon Prime) season 1
  • Killing Eve (BBC America) season 1
  • Pose (FX) season 1

Prediction: Pose because they love these three things well: Ryan Murphy, musical numbers, and making history
Spoiler: Killing Eve which would make a great surprise winner - I know I'm behind but I just started watching it and... WOW.

Comedy Series, Actor

  • Sacha Baron Cohen, Who is America? (S1)
  • Jim Carrey, Kidding (S1)
  • Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method (S1)
  • Donald Glover, Atlanta (S2) *won two years ago*
  • Bill Hader, Barry (S1)

Prediction: Bill Hader
Spoiler: The Globes very rarely get hung up on one winner (unlike the Emmys) but if they do this is the category that they're most likely to do it in, historically speaking, so Donald Glover.

 

Comedy Actress


  • Kristen Bell, The Good Place (S3)
  • Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown (S11)
  • Alison Brie, GLOW (S2)
  • Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel  (S2) *won last year*
  • Debra Messing, Will & Grace (S10) 

Prediction: The Globes haven't had a repeat winner here since Tina Fey in 30 Rock (you can thank the Globes for giving honors to multiple brilliant comics over the years since they never gave Julia Louis-Dreyfus the Globe for Veep they've completely spread the wealth for the past seven or so years unlike the Emmys. But I'm predicting Brosnahan to be a rare repeat.
Spoiler: Kristen Bell, because once you realize you love The Good Place (which the Globes just did) why not?

Comedy Series 

  • Barry (HBO) season 1
  • The Good Place (NBC) season 3
  • Kidding (SHO) season 1
  • The Kominsky Method (Netflix) season 1
  • The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (Amazon Prime) season 2 *won last year*

Prediction: The Globes like to switch this winner up every year so let's say Barry since it's fresh.
Spoiler:  The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (though there hasn't been a repeat winner since Glee in 2009/2010.

MOVIE PREDICTIONS

Animated Feature

Prediction: The Globes vote pretty much like the Oscars do here but I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's one of the years where they don't line up but people mistakenly think they will and predict Incredibles 2
Spoiler: Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse
Should Win: Isle of Dogs

 Foreign Film


Prediction: Roma
Spoiler: none
Should Win: Shoplifters

Score


  • Black Panther, Goransson
  • First Man, Hurwitz
  • Isle of Dogs, Desplat
  • Mary Poppins Returns, Shaiman
  • A Quiet Place, Beltrami

Prediction: Mary Poppins Returns
Spoiler: A Quiet Place
Should Win: Hmmm. undecided but um hello Ludwig. Hiiiiiii. 

Songs

Prediction/Should Win: "Shallow"
Spoiler: none

Screenplay

Prediction: Tough call even by Globe standards but let's say The Favourite
Spoiler: Green Book
Should Win: The Favourite in a walk.

Director


  • Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
  • Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
  • Peter Farrelly, Green Book
  • Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
  • Adam McKay, Vice

Prediction/Should Win: Alfonso Cuarón
Spoiler: Bradley Cooper but only because I think they'll give him Best Actor instead. It would be better for him if he lost actually, this category I mean, since the backlash would be strong. 

Supporting Actress 

Prediction/Should Win: This is a tough call since they Globes love most of these ladies. All of them, save Regina King, are previous winners. So I'm going with Regina King because her fandom has been building and she's nominated twice this year... and I don't think If Beale Street Could Talk is winning anything else
Spoiler: Amy Adams

Supporting Actor


  • Mahershala Ali, Green Book
  • Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
  • Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
  • Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Sam Rockwell, Vice

Prediction: Mahershala Ali since they skipped over him for Moonlight giving the win (in a shocker) to Aaron Taylor Johnson instead in 2016
Spoiler: Let's be perverse and say Timothée Chalamet since they also skipped him over for the win recently and he's still young enough that they could be the first to award him... and you know they like doing that
Should Win: Richard E Grant in a walk

Actor, Musical or Comedy

Prediction: Viggo Mortensen in a surprise
Spoiler: Christian Bale
Should Win: Hmmm. No strong feelings about superiority in this race but maybe John C Reilly?

 

Actress, Musical or Comedy


  • Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
  • Olivia Colman, The Favourite
  • Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
  • Charlize Theron, Tully
  • Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Prediction: Emily Blunt, I'd say this race is near "tie" levels. They love Blunt with 6 nominations and 1 win previously and musicals often give you the edge.
Spoiler: Olivia Colman obviously
Should Win: Olivia or Charlize

 

Musical or Comedy 

 

Prediction: Aside from Crazy Rich Asians, it's easy to imagine any of these films winning given the HFPA's taste and history. But I'm opting for Green Book because they were very generous with the nominations... even Best Director!
Spoiler: Mary Poppins Returns
Should Win: The Favourite.

 

Actress, Drama

Prediction: Lady Gaga...the quintessential Globe winner in so so many ways
Spoiler: I'd say "none" but for the outside possibility of sentiment for Glenn Close
Should Win: Close or McCarthy

 

Actor, Drama


Prediction: Bradley Cooper, because I think they're going to want "His & Hers" wins
Spoiler: Rami Malek... who I fear stealing it from Cooper since Cooper might win Best Director instead
Should Win: Bradley Cooper
Also: SEXIEST CATEGORY

 

Drama 

Prediction: A Star is Born
Spoiler: none... is that a risk? Possibly but this should be the easiest win for A Star is Born all season. It's so Globe-like
Should Win: A Star is Born

SIX PEOPLE WE'RE DYING TO SEE ON THE RED CARPET

1. Charlize Theron... it feels like it's been a spell, right?

2. Thandie Newton, glamourpuss.

3. Lady Gaga, duh.

4. Nicole Kidman,

5. Troye Sivan and Billy Porter because men's fashion is so dull but the gays probably won't be!

6. Regina King

SEVEN MORE POSSIBLY FOOLISH PREDICTIONS


1. Lady Gaga will surprise by dressing slightly less flashy than usual (saving it up for the Oscars?)

2. Sandra Oh and Andy Samberg will do a decent job hosting.

3. Lots of Bohemian Rhapsody jokes

4. Tables that will look like they're having the most fun: Crazy Rich Asians  and If Beale Street Could Talk. Tables that will look surprisingly tense: Black Panther and Mary Poppins Returns

5. Most popular during those commercial break shots of the stars mingling: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Emma Stone, ... and Lady Gaga of course.

6. The Jeff Bridges tribute they had? It really tied the room together. 

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Reader Comments (36)

All I know is that I don't want to see a reprise of last year's GG acting categories in Film, where all the people that you didn't want to win did so, and then proceeded to win every single other award afterward, ad nauseam. So predictable and unsatisfying.

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterRob

The Guardian (not exactly experts in Awards predictions) seem convinced that Glenn Close will win!!!!

That said, it's the Golden Globes and I'm not confident of ANYTHING when it comes to that small panel's choices... which makes for exciting results, obviously...

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterkermit_the_frog

I want my boyfriend Ben Whishaw to win so I'm glad you're predicting him.

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJoseph

To add, I get the impression that "spreading the wealth" and rewarding "bright new flashy stars" are the main focus of the Golden Globes when they're in upset-mode so... if Lady Gaga had either not been nominated or won for American Horror Story previously OR if she had a few box office smashes under her belt prior to now... she'd be a much surer thing. As it stands? They'll already feel like they've noticed and rewarded her, which could lead to a surprise... just imagine if Nicole Kidman took it!

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterkermit_the_frog

I think Viggo Mortenson has a chance to win the Oscar. Tho I see Bale as a potential winner going forward. But I think Viggo can stake his claim here.

In Drama, Cooper appears to not have any competition. I just don't see it. Hawke is not there, Mortenson and Bale are in the opposing category.

Gaga seems a clear frontrunner, tho I wouldn't be shocked if she lost. Just as I wouldn't be shocked if she went the way of Madonna/Carrey. Madonna comparison is obvious. Carrey won in Drama. Close should win, easily. McCarthy is a very worthy winner tho.

Chalamet is very worthy, but very lead. So Grant would be nice. I see what you're saying about he category here.

Agree on King, tho surprises there aren't too surprising.

But I think The Favourite is exactly that in both Best Actress and Best Picture.

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

I'm with you on all of these but I've got Olivia beating Emily to the win.

A Star Is Born
Green Brook
Cuaron
Cooper
Gaga
Mortenson
Colman
Ali
King

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterKeegan

The Globes only have two options shower AISB with everything or actually attempt to predict Oscar. Also, Gaga's rival in the song category is Kendrick Lamar. Don't be myopic because the only hip hop that exist to you was delivered by Missy Elliott.

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered Commenter/3rtful

Sadly, I agree with almost all of your predictions.

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterCharlieG

You're terrible at this.

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJess

I see BR coming winning BP

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBrown Cow Stunning

Last year three eventual Oscar winners (McDormand, Janney, Rockwell) came into Globe night with zero major critics prizes. I know every year is different, but I can see more movement than these predictions suggest.

I agree that individually, Adams and Close feel like spoilers. I'd still be a little surprised if both lost? Maybe I'm in denial.

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterHayden

Sandra Oh hosting might mean she's winning too ;-)

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterDAVID

Jess -- we'll see. I've never claimed to be great at predicting the Globes ;)

January 4, 2019 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

Please make "Sexiest Category" a recurring shout-out. :)

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJames from Ames

I'm beginning to feel very sick. I don't wanna live in a world where another popstar wins over Glenn Close after Cher (Oscar 1987) and Madonna (Globes, 1996). I think it's better for my state of mind if I stay away from awards coverage if the signals after next Sunday are so apocalyptic.

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterFerdi

Predictions:

VICE is this year's THE POST, strong coming in but going home empty handed.

Drama: Star Is Born
Director: Cooper
Actor, Drama: Malek
Actress, Drama: Gaga

Comedy/Musical: The Favourite
Actor, Com/Mus: Viggo
Actress, Com/Mus: Colman

Supporting Actor: Ali
Supporting Actress: King

Have you seen "The Bodyguard"? I fully expect Richard Madden to win for that, and maybe the show, too.

"Barry" will clean up as well: Hader, Winkler and the show.

They'll give Amy Adams another statue for "Sharp Objects."

And there's no way in hell they're not giving Sandra Oh a statue.


Director: Cooper

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSan FranCinema

I’d love to see Strahovski win something for The Handmaid’s Tale... she’s much better than Ann Dowd’s overpraised caricature of a performance. I think Clarkson or Cruz will win. Borestein is irritating beyond measure.

As far as lead comedy tv actress - Bell or Brie would be a nice surprise!

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterchoog

I keep the same though: "If Glenn Close can't win here, forget her at the Oscars"

-The Critics Choice will go to consensus
-The old SAG may helped her before but with the AFTA merger?
-BAFTA will go to Colman (especially if she wins the GG)

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterLeon

Leon -- except there is almost no one more GLOBEY than Lady Gaga!

SanFran -- I have seen The Bodyguard but i hadn't heard many people talking about it so I assumed Madden wasnt in the running.

January 4, 2019 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

To be fair, Cher was one of those correct winners. Moonstruck is great and she's perfect...and quite "actorly".

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

Nathaniel, unfortunally Gaga has come strong even winning critics awards. Meanwhile Glenn Close path has been underwhelming (The GALECAs snub her). Close really need to win this Sunday to keep that narrative alove and obligated the SAG to SUPPORT HER.

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterLeon

@Nathaniel - The Bodyguard had the highest average ratings of any BBC show last year, before US/Netflix, so I'm assuming Madden's praised emotional performance has been widely seen, including by HFPA members.

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSan FranCinema

Glenn Close. The only award that matters.

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSoshua

"I'm beginning to feel very sick. I don't wanna live in a world where another popstar wins over Glenn Close"

...

God, I love the gays. The drama of it all. lmao

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterPhilip H.

Did someone seriously watch The Bodyguard and come away thinking "wow that guy can really act"?(!)

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered Commentergoran

goran, I know right!

January 4, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterevangelina

Yes! Shoplifters SHOULD win. I thought I may be the only person who thought so.

January 5, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJulian

Best Supporting Actor is such hot trash to me this year.

Grant is the only ones who I like in the lineup.

At least Hoult and Clarke (First Man) would've livened things up. Or Elliott, who is pretty damn good in A Star is Born.

AH well...

January 5, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterManny

goran & evangelina -- golden globes for his buttshot!

January 5, 2019 | Registered CommenterNATHANIEL R

My guesses for the "A Star is Born" Love Party....

Best Actor, Bradley Cooper:
Best Actress: Lady Gaga
Best Actress, Emily Blunt.
Best Actor, Robert Redford
Best Director: Spike Lee
Best Song: A Star is Born
Best Score: Mary Poppins Returns
Screenplay: The Favorite
Supporting Actor: Richard E Grant
Supporitng Actress: Regina King

TV:

ACtress: Kristin Bell, Amy Adams, and Julia Roberts
Actor: Darren Criss, Billy Porter, Bill Hader
Supporting Actress: Patricia Clarkson
Supporitng Actor: Henry Winkler

Comedy: The Good Place
Drama: Pose

Comedy: Mary Poppins Returns
Drama: A Star is Born

January 6, 2019 | Unregistered Commenterforever1267

Glenn Close a 7 time Oscar loser would be an enbarassment. Can the academy hand her such an albatross to carry?

January 6, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMark

It will be a Close race!! I'm still holding out for Glenn!! I dun HFPA is in a rush to give Gaga two awards tonight.

My two cents:
Drama: A Star is Born
Actress: Glenn Close
Actor: Malek
Com/Mus: The Favourite
Actress: Emily Blunt
Actor: Bale (was tinking o Mortensen, but i believe his recent brush off w Don Shirley's family n the n-word debacle had derailed his chances)
Supp Actress: Regina King
Supp Actor: Ali
Director: Cooper (if he loses here, then he'll win in Actor)
Foreign Pic: Roma
Animation: Into the Spider-verse
Screenplay: The Favourite
Song: Shallow
Score: Mary Poppins Returns

January 6, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterClaran

Close YES Colman YES Malik? Oscars look interesting now

January 6, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterJoe (UK)

If a live prediction counts, then I got Bohemian Rhapsody. Was split on Malek and Cooper.

Hey, Close won. That's good.

January 6, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterMe

The randomness of their Boho Rhapsody love and Ali winning supporting almost make me think all the Oscar winners will be different.

January 6, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterBruno

Congrats to all the Close fans - I am honestly happy for you and was moved by her speech.

That said, I am totally befuddled by the Bohemian Rhapsody wins. I understand people don't like ASIB, but there were three other possibilities in Best Picture and Best Actor as well (and they gave one big award to Beale Street, so why not award it BP?). I hope the press asks a lot of questions backstage about Bryan Singer.

January 6, 2019 | Unregistered CommenterSuzanne

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