Cynthia Erivo as Harriet and the *next* Best Actress Race

That was quick. There are only four spots left in the next Best Actress Oscar race.

We kid, we kid. Academy Award nomination races aren't sewn up half as quickly as the internet always pretends they are. Nevertheless it's hard to deny that on paper Cynthia Erivo playing Harriett Tubman (there's your first still above) reads just right for major Oscar attention.

There are so many ways in which this seems likely without seeing a single clip. Let us count them... 

1. Erivo proved this past year that her stage chops and magnetic presence (Tony win for The Color Purple  in which she was quite awesome despite the enormous shadow of Whoopi Goldberg) transfer well to the movies (Widows, Bad Times at the El Royale) so chances are she wins strong reviews because she's gifted.
2. Honestly who deserves a biopic more than Harriett Tubman? And even if the movie isn't good (we won't know for awhile) awards voters have a very difficult time discerning between important worthy topic and good film.
3. Awards voters of most stripes (but especially Oscar voters) cannot get enough of biopic performances. They've never been able to shake this fetish. You don't even have to be particularly good to get nominated so long as you're playing a famous person and the film is either critically well received or audience popular.
4. A strong / appealing supporting cast really helps leading ladies or leading men shine and she's got one: Joe Alwyn (♥︎), Janelle Monae (♥︎), Jennifer Nettles, and Leslie Odom Jr. 
5. The movie has an African-American cowriter/director (Yay, Kasi Lemmons back to feature directing!) and several department heads of color (Oscar-nominated Terence Blanchard on score, and former Emmy players Warren Alan Young, Paul Tazewell, Angie Wells on production design and costumes and makeup, respectively*) so it won't get attacked for representation and optics which has proven a politic minefield for many movies of late.
6. Viola Davis's competing Harriett Tubman project is not happening any time soon if at all. It's still on her roster but these things have a way of falling apart if another movie gets there first.

And while we're on this topic...

We JUST started looking at what's coming up this year for those April Foolish Oscar predictions so here's a list of actresses who have possibly noteworthy films coming this year. (This list is still in progress... there's so much research left to do but why not share it with you since you can always add to it in the comments)

ACTRESS

• Amy Adams, Woman in the Window
• Gemma Arterton, Summerland
• Awkwafina, The Farewell
• Jillian Bell, Brittany Runs a Marathon
• Cate Blanchett, Where'd Ya Go Bernadette?
• Rose Byrne, Limited Partners
• Honor Swinton Byrne, The Souvenir
• Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey
• Cynthia Erivo, Harriett
• Elle Fanning, All the Bright Places
• Holliday Grainger, Animals
• Keira Knightley, Official Secrets
• Tiffany Haddish, Limited Partners
• Linda Hamilton, Untitled Terminator Project
• Anne Hathaway, The Last Thing He Wanted / The Hustle
• Taraji P Henson, The Best of Enemies
• Isabelle Huppert, Greta
• Mindy Kaling, Late Night 
• Riley Keough, The Lodge
• Brie Larson, Captain Marvel
• Helen Mirren, The Good Liar
• Julianne Moore, Gloria Bell / After the Wedding
• Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
• Lupita Nyong'o, Us
• Sarah Paulson, The Goldfinch
• Rosamund Pike, Radioactive
• Florence Pugh, Fighting with my Family / Midsommar
• Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
• Charlize Theron, Untitled Roger Aisles Project / Long Shot
• Alicia Vikander, Earthquake Bird
• Mia Wasikowska, Judy & Punch
• Alfred Woodard, Clemency
• Renee Zellweger, Judy

SUPPORTING ACTRESS 

• Zazie Beets, High Flying Bird / Joker / Lucy in the Sky / Against All Enemies
• Annette Bening, The Report
• Danielle Brooks, Clemency 
• Gwendolyn Christie, The Personal History of David Copperfield
• Lily Collins, Tolkien
• Penélope Cruz, Pain & Glory
• Olivia Colman, Them That Follow
• Viola Davis, Troop Zero
• Laura Dern, Little Women
• Dakota Fanning, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Joanna Froggat, Downton Abbey
• Anne Hathaway, Untitled Todd Haynes Project 
• Anne Heche, The Best of Enemies
• Jennifer Hudson, Cats
• Alison Janney, Troop Zero
• Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
• Nicole Kidman, Untitled Roger Aisle Project / The Goldfinch
• Sophie Lowe, Above Suspicion / Medieval
• Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Summerland
• Thomasin McKenzie, The King / Lost Girls / Jojo Rabbit
• Julianne Moore, Woman in the Window
• Elisabeth Moss, Us / The Kitchen
• Ruth Negga, Ad Astra
• Sarah Paulson, The Goldfinch
• Margaret Qualley, Adam
• Margot Robbie, Once upon a Time in Hollywood
• Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
• Octavia Spencer, Luce
• Imelda Staunton, Downton Abbey
• Meryl Streep, Little Women
• Tilda Swinton, The Personal History of David Copperfield
• Emma Thompson, Late Night (or maybe lead like in a Devil Wears Prada way?)
• Marisa Tomei, Frankie
• Michelle Williams, After the Wedding
• Naomi Watts, Luce
• Mare Winningham, Untitled Todd Haynes Project

SIZE OF ROLE ???

• Laura Dern, Untitled Noah Baumbach
• Tiffany Haddish, The Kitchen
• Scarlett Johansson, Untitled Noah Baumbach
• Melissa McCarthy, The Kitchen 
• Elisabeth Moss, The Kitchen
• Margaret Qualley, Against All Enemies
• Kristen Stewart, Against All Enemies (she's playing the focal point of the plot / other characters but from descriptions it doesn't sound like it's necessarily the lead) 
• Meryl Streep, The Laundromat

* Yes, while I'm building each year's Oscar charts before they premiere in April, I am obsessively looking at below-the-line players as well when movies are announced. I'm terribly sad this year that Oscar has now deemed all these artist, who contribute so much to the movies, as lesser-than. It will only hurt the public perception of the art of filmmaking -- the very last thing the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences should ever want to do.

Comments

[Hayden]

Billy—agreed. I think Glenn should have won the Oscar, and I would still give my left arm for the 1988 Kathleen Turner version.

I'm also gonna push back on the idea that Turner represents "typical Hollywood sensuality." That's like saying Michelle Pfeiffer represents "typical Hollywood beauty." They are the apotheoses of those things, respectively.

It's not a dig at Glenn. I just think few performers in history (including Glenn at the time) have been in such COMPLETE command of their abilities as Turner in the mid-late 80s.

[SRB]

i have to agree that Streep would be very interesting for Sunset Boulevard, especially with a strong singer like Patrick Wilson, but it's such a boring score that I can't possibly imagine it being successfully filmed. Glenn gets an A for successfully wrapping up her movie career, but unless they start filming that movie tomorrow, it would never be done in time. Streep should do the live action version of Little Mermaid as Ursula, I think that may be happening.

It is funny how you can already skim the names and start to see the nominees. Big names have a huge advantage.

[Marcos]

Back in the sixties there was a pretty good (anthology) show that I liked very much: "The Great Adventure". One 1963 episode, "Go Down, Moses", was about Harriet Tubman and the Underground Railroad. It starred Ruby Dee, Brock Peters, Ossie Davis and Ethel Waters. I was 9 or 10 years old and was so moved that it was the beginning of my fascination with the history of blacks in America, slavery, the CIvil Rights Movement, etc.

You can check out the complete episode on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uL1h79Gxyos

[Martin]

Great discussion Billy/Hayden ... I'm actually very much in @Brunos court here but love the thought process! Glenn made the Marquise so iconic, that I never thought of a different cast at all. The few things I sometimes don't like about Glenns acting I actually thought would work perfectly for Sunset Boulevard... but there again, it would be the most obvious choice, which might not be the most interesting?! Saying that ... I watched "The Wife" last night - not a typecast with Close at all (think Weaver, Mirren, Christie, Field (!) Streep of course) - and I'm in deep admiration - and so happy - so so happy as for me there is no pinch of a doubt anymore that Glenn will finally walk away with her Oscar (that I would have given her for "Fatal Attraction"). it is such a fascinating, mature, layered, intense and heartbreaking performance which deeply moved me to my roots - rankes for me as one of her top 3.
With regards to Turner I need to revisit some of her 80's movies - think she would make a fantastic Ursula and Bening - she is an actress that grew so much with every decade - (and on me) she literally topped her fantastic performances one by one from "Julia" - to "Kids" to an even more defined "20Centry" - probably one of my favourite female performances in the past years (well thats always difficult to say). I actually just want to see more movies like "Wife" with interesting older female main characters portrait by faces that lived a great live with wrinkles an all - and still move !!!

[Manuel]

For some reason I am rooting for these underdogs:

Anne Heche in supporting - she is an underrated actress
ScarJo getting her first nomination

[Brendan D]

What about Debra Winger in the Miranda July movie?

[Jesus Alonso]

I am somehow certain, Anna Paquin will be nominated and maybe win her 2nd for "The Irishman".

[Ann]

looking at what's coming up this year for those