Team Experience Oscar Predictions: The Final Scores

by Cláudio Alves

Nobody predicted SINNERS to secure Delroy Lindo his first Oscar nomination. | © Warner Bros.

How did your Oscar predictions turn out? At The Film Experience, ten writers did their best, and now we have results. Baby Clyde achieved the highest accuracy, dethroning former champion Eric Blume. But there’s more, so check the full data below. When we aggregate predictions, surprises emerge: none of us saw Delroy Lindo or Avatar in Costume Design coming. Conversely, everyone expected Paul Mescal in Best Supporting Actor, so we all misjudged that race.

Without further ado, here’s the final score…

PREDICTION SCORES

As always, most of the team declined to predict the shorts categories. Baby Clyde went one step further, avoiding Song, Sound, and Animated Feature as well. That was a smart choice on their part since, within the 18 categories left, he scored the highest accuracy rate. Here’s the full ranking:

1) Baby Clyde – 76/95 – 80%
2-3) Eric Blume – 75/95 – 79%
2-3) Nathaniel R – 75/95 – 79%
4-5) Cláudio Alves – 74/95 – 78%
4-5) Juan Carlos Ojano – 74/95 – 78%
6-8) Eurocheese – 73/95 – 77%
6-8) Chris James – 73/95 – 77%
6-8) Ben Miller – 73/95 – 77%
9) Abe Friedtanzer – 71/95 – 75%
10) Nick Taylor – 68/95 – 72%

Shuffling Baby Clyde out, we can count all the feature categories, in which case, the results dictate a three-way tie for the top spot, shared between Eric, Juan Carlos, and Nathaniel. The results: 

1-3) Eric Blume – 88/110 – 80%
1-3) Juan Carlos Ojano – 88/110 – 80%
1-3) Nathaniel R – 88/110 – 80%
4-6) Cláudio Alves – 86/110 – 78%
4-6) Chris James – 86/110 – 78%
4-6) Ben Miller – 86/110 – 78%
7-8) Eurocheese – 85/110 – 77%
7-8) Abe Friedtanzer – 85/110 – 77%
9) Nick Taylor – 81/110 – 74%

It’s difficult to compare the punditry at hand with past years since the 98th Academy Awards introduced a new category – Best Casting. So, if you want to see the writer’s evolution from last year’s predictions, here are the scores of all feature categories that were also in the running for the 97th Oscars. In this scenario, Nathaniel takes the cake:

1) Nathaniel R – 85/105 – 81%
2-3) Eric Blume – 84/105 – 80%
2-3) Juan Carlos Ojano – 84/105 – 80%
4) Cláudio Alves – 83/105 – 79%
5-6) Chris James – 82/105 – 78%
5-6) Ben Miller – 82/105 – 78%
7-8) Eurocheese – 81/105 – 77%
7-8) Abe Friedtanzer – 81/105 – 77%
9) Nick Taylor – 78/105 – 74%

Nathaniel is also the winner when counting ALL categories, including the shorts. The final tally amounts to: 

1) Nathaniel R – 94/125 – 75%
2-4) Cláudio Alves – 92/125 – 74%
2-4) Abe Friedtanzer – 92/125 – 74%
2-4) Ben Miller – 92/125 – 74%

But what about the “above the line” races alone? Since many folks in the comments on the predictions article only sounded off on those categories, it could be worth investigating further. If one only counted the screenplays, acting, directing, and picture categories, here’s how things would shake up:

1) Nathaniel R – 39/45 – 87%
2-6) Cláudio Alves – 38/45 – 84%
2-6) Eric Blume – 38/45 – 84%
2-6) Baby Clyde – 38/45 – 84%
2-6) Chris James – 38/45 – 84%
2-6) Ben Miller – 38/45 – 84%
7-9) Eurocheese – 37/45 – 82%
7-9) Abe Friedtanzer – 37/45 – 82%
7-9) Juan Carlos Ojano – 37/45 – 82%
10) Nick Taylor – 34/45 – 76%

All things considered, it’s fair to say that Baby Clyde and Nathaniel are the year’s best pundits. Indeed, among the categories that were in the running over the last few seasons, Nathaniel has made the biggest jump in accuracy, from 72% in 2025 to 81% in 2026. Eric got one less prediction wrong, while I did the exact same, Chris James improved by one, Ben by two, Eurocheese by three, Abe by four, and Nick by two. Is it safe to say this has been a more predictable season? 

Then again, AMPAS did manage to shock with unexpected snubs and inclusions, as they always do. More than last year, in some regards.

AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH | © Disney 

BIGGEST SURPRISES

Nobody predicted any of these nominations:

• DELROY LINDO in Best Supporting Actor.

• BLUE MOON in Best Original Screenplay.

• AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH in Best Costume Design.

• MARTY SUPREME in Best Costume Design.

• THE UGLY STEPSISTER in Best Makeup & Hairstyling.

• JURASSIC WORLD REBIRTH in Best Visual Effects.

• BUGONIA in Best Original Score.

• VIVA VERDI! in Best Original Song.

• COME SEE ME IN THE GOOD LIGHT in Best Documentary Feature.

• THE THREE SISTERS in Best Animated Short Film.

This is a curious lot, with only short among them. While nobody included Marty Supreme in their Costume Design final five, many mentioned it as a possibility. The same goes for Jurassic World Rebirth, whose inclusion marks the first time this franchise has been up for the VFX Oscar since it was still called Jurassic Park. Both Abe and Nick gave shout-outs to The Ugly Stepsister in their blurbs, noting it was a nomination they’d like to see even if they weren’t predicting it. The last note relates to Come See Me in the Good Light, which was predicted by many in a different category – Best Original Song.

HAMNET | © Focus Features

BIGGEST SNUBS

But what about the sure things AMPAS outright rejected? Every Team Experience writer predicted these:

• PAUL MESCAL in Best Supporting Actor.

• WICKED: FOR GOOD in Best Production Design.

• WICKED: FOR GOOD in Best Costume Design.

Last year, none of the big snubs were in the so-called “above the line” categories, so this one’s a bit of a doozy. Paul Mescal is the clearest Almost There case since Margot Robbie in Barbie, having been nominated by all the major precursors before getting blanked by the Academy. Even so, the Wicked shutout might be more of a shock to the team, seeing as some did place the Hamnet actor as the most vulnerable Supporting Actor contender. But nobody expected the mega musical sequel to do quite so poorly, especially since it won these two categories last year. Perchance, voters felt the team had been rewarded enough.

In the short film categories, which not all writers dared to predict, Playing God featured in everyone’s lineups. It seemed right up the branch’s alley, being animation about the animation process. However, its flirtation with horror tonalities may have been Playing God’s doom. Despite embracing horror in some notable ways this year, the Academy still has a long way to go when it comes to embracing scary stuff.

SENTIMENTAL VALUE | © Neon 

LEAPS OF FAITH

In these cases, only one writer went to bat for an eventual Oscar nominee. These little miracles were:

• Eric Blume was the only writer to predict SENTIMENTAL VALUE in Best Editing.

• Abe Friedtanzer was the only writer to predict RETIREMENT PLAN in Best Animated Short.

• Ben Miller was the only writer to predict BUTTERFLY in Best Animated Short Film.

• Nathaniel Rogers was the only writer to predict FOREVERGREEN in Best Animated Short Film.

• Cláudio Alves was the only one to predict THE DEVIL IS BUSY in Best Documentary Short Film.

• Abe Friedtanzer was the only writer to predict PERFECTLY A STRANGENESS in Best Documentary Short Film.

• Cláudio Alves was the only writer to predict BUTCHER’S STAIN in Best Live-Action Short Film.

• Ben Miller was the only writer to predict A FRIEND OF DOROTHY in Best Live-Action Short Film.

The only successful leap of faith for the feature categories was Eric’s bet on Sentimental Value’s editing, so congrats to him. It should be said that others mentioned the Scandinavian drama in their blurbs, though weren’t bold enough to include it in their predictions. The rest of the lot are shorts-based, with Abe’s hunch that Perfectly a Strangeness would make it representing the biggest swing. Who knew the Academy would vouch for such an abstract doc, verging on experimental cinema, about donkeys in the landscape, gazing up at the heavens.

LITTLE AMÉLIE OR THE CHARACTER OF RAIN | © GKids

Some other pieces of trivia and observations include: 

• Like last year, only Best Animated Feature was correctly predicted across the board. It's officially the year's most predictable race two years in a row.

• A total of 14 categories saw no one getting a 5/5 score. They include Best Picture, Supporting Actor, Casting, and Original Screenplay. It’s an improvement over last year.

• Speaking of those rare 5/5 scores, of the ten races that folks predicted perfectly, two of them were guessed right by just one individual. Chris was the only one to get the exact Best Director five, while Eric is the editing champion.

• Besides the short film categories, Best Documentary Feature was the year's most unpredictable race. No one got more than three correct guesses.

• Chris James, Juan Carlos Ojano, and I got the highest number of perfect category scores, with five each.

• Only one person predicted that Sinners would break the all-time nomination record with 16 nods. That was me, with everyone else underestimating Ryan Coogler’s genre mélange. Sadly, I chose the wrong supporting actor, though I’m happy for being wrong about that – Lindo all the way!

And that's all, folks. At least, for now. Oscar coverage will continue at The Film Experience until the ceremony's aftermath. The 98th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 15.

Who do you think will win at the Oscars? Sound off in the comments with your post-nomination predictions.