98th Academy Awards: Team Experience Predictions

by Cláudio Alves

Tomorrow will be a big day for the ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and SINNERS' teams.

Before tomorrow’s nomination announcement rocks our world and redefines the season, it’s time for ten Team Experience writers (including Nathaniel!) to throw their hat in the punditry ring and hope for the best. This year, ten predictors are in play, doing their best to see who has the best instincts for Oscar prognostication. Last time, Eric proved himself our champion, but things may change with a new season, new contenders, new narratives. There are some wild swings among the various picks – Kokuho in Costume Design, for instance – along with many locks that everyone agrees with – Best Animated Feature feels terribly predictable – yet may still produce some shocking snubs. One thing’s for sure, either One Battle After Another or Sinners will be our nomination leader. Indeed, there’s a strong possibility one or both will break the record for most nods ever. We have to wait and see.

You can find the prediction charts and added commentary after the jump…

Click on the images to enlarge.

CLÁUDIO: While it's risky to go with a record-breaking three non-English language films in Best Picture, I think NEON can do it. Honestly, predicting Bugonia to finish the season on the outside looking in might be an even bigger risk, but I have a gut feeling about F1 reigning supreme at the end of the day. Weapons also put up a fight, truth be told. Am I being too influenced by the PGA? 

ERIC: I guess F1 could be the big commercial one to make it in, but I just can't imagine people ranking it highly for passion?  I want to predict No Other Choice as the shocker, but at this point, I think Accident will be lucky if it squeaks by. 

BABY CLYDE: I've been juggling between F1 and Sirat for the final slot over the last few weeks now. Think the Steak Eaters may come out in force for it, so I've gone with F1 for now, and I'm ok with that. Old white men need representation, too. 

EUROCHEESE: My gut is telling me Bugonia is wrong, but I just can't convince myself of anything else. Maybe a weird Wicked showing?

ABE: It's strange not to predict Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash given previous installments' placements, but this list feels pretty solid to me. Even if the international titles underperform elsewhere, they should be fine here. F1 is likeliest to knock the stragglers off, and I'd be ecstatic if The Testament of Ann Lee overcame its shortlist shutout to grab a spot here. 

CHRIS: The first 8 films seem pretty locked up for me. From there, I feel we have one slot for a smaller film and one for a blockbuster.

For the smaller film, it's going to be Bugonia or It Was Just An Accident (or even Sirat). It Was Just An Accident had a lot of wind taken out of its sails the past few weeks while Bugonia quietly hums along. The surprise SAG nom for Jesse Plemons, plus the PGA, makes me think there are still some key supporters here, and Accident is the international film being crowded out. Even Sorry Baby could have a late-breaking chance.

On the blockbuster front, Avatar and Wicked seemed like stronger films a month ago, but support seems to have evaporated. With PGA going for F1 and Weapons, both of those films seem to have a better shot. I'm going to be wild and bet on Weapons, since people are likely watching it after Amy Madigan's Critics Choice win (and it fits the "Year of WB" narrative).

BEN: The top five are iron-clad, the top eight feel pretty secure.  I didn't expect Bugonia to last the way it has, but whatever.  I wish It Was Just An Accident had more support, but I still feel good about its chances.  F1 and Weapons are making a case for the populist vote.  I won't be surprised if F1 finds its way to the ten.

NATHANIEL: Wicked For Good's fall from grace should feel like more of a story, but the fact that it doesn't feel like a major story makes it yet more obvious that it will probably miss. Now that we're so many years into the 10-wide (or close to it) field, isn't it remarkable how non-volatile it always feels? You'd think 10 slots would lead to more competitive races, but instead, it tends to narrow all fields down so that only 15 pictures get any sort of sustained conversation. Bugonia, It Was Just An Accident (yes, even with a director nod), and The Secret Agent all feel vulnerable, but it's not like F1, or Weapons (for example) have more momentum or any kind of  'they've been robbed' rallying cry behind them.

NICK: A top seven that feels set in stone to me, even with some late-breaking anxieties around Panahi's film making the cut. I should probably switch Bugonia in for Sirat, but I don't want to, especially when Laxe's film has made an unusually strong showing on Oscar's shortlists. Maybe I'm underselling Wicked and Avatar repeating history - alternately, is Sorry Baby's late resurgence enough for it to actually show up here? If I'm gonna predict a swerve, I'm gonna have fun with it.

CLÁUDIO: I've felt like Zhao is this year's Berger for a while, but I'm going one step further and predict a del Toro snub, even after his DGA nomination. Truth be told, I'm probably being delusional, but Panahi and Trier seem like such catnip to this branch that it's hard to resist predicting them. 

ERIC: I wanna stick by my guns and say that Ryan Coogler is going to be snubbed by this branch, but since everybody keeps telling me I'm out of my mind, I'll place him fifth.  But I think Guillermo del Toro may grab that spot?  I'm picking boldly this year!  No guts, no glory!!

BABY CLYDE: With so many successful  big swings this year and multiple International Features in the mix, I'm counting on the least showy to miss. Therefore, I'm going with Safdie over Trier and the Directors branch still gets to demonstrate their lofty taste. I'd be happy for anyone to get snubbed if Mendonça Filho can make it. 

EUROCHEESE: Not so confident here - seven names for five slots. Safdie feels "new" here and Trier's film is script-heavy. I'll be upset if they leave out Panahi.

ABE: I don't feel confident about this at all. I'm actually worried that Zhao or Coogler could be snubbed, but I feel like Trier is the best international bet, even if passion is there for Panahi and The Secret Agent is surging even more than I'm Still Here (which couldn't get nominated here). I do think that Del Toro is safe, even though he's the easy drop, and Safdie is a serious threat to crack this lineup.

CHRIS: The Oscars have liked to skew international as their membership has grown. Weeks ago, Jafar Panahi seemed like the best choice for this, but missing the BAFTA longlist to Joachim Trier was the final blow to the film for me. I think the Oscars are going to go all out for Sentimental Value, especially considering The Worst Person in the World surprised in Screenplay a few years back. 

BEN: Hamnet is going to end up with a whole bunch of nominations, so I'll be shocked if Zhao is out.  I feel the worst about Safdie, but it stands to reason that his inclusion would have the same argument as Zhao's.  You could throw five other directors in that fifth spot and I wouldn't bat an eye.  Just please...no GDT.

NATHANIEL: I've seen the DGA nods, but the Academy's director's branch inarguably veers closer to international cinephile than that much larger voting body, so Trier OR Panahi will make it. I'm guessing both. 

NICK: Big delulu hopedicting with Mendonça, but if I think The Secret Agent has a strong nomination count ahead of it and better odds of winning International Film, why not predict him here? Or Oliver Laxe! Choosing to believe Del Toro will miss at the last second despite how well he's been doing. Omitting Safdie makes no sense to me either, but here we are.

CLÁUDIO: Playing safe on this one. Honestly, hoping I'm wrong and there's a major surprise. As long as it doesn't come at the expense of Byrne, I'll be fine with it. 

ERIC: I know Seyfried is unlikely, but this race also feels very volatile to me, and I can't imagine Hudson or Infiniti getting a lot of passion votes?  We need big surprises somewhere, right?  No guts, no glory! 

BABY CLYDE: I just can't work out if this Hudson thing is real or not. I'm guessing Infiniti gets swept along with the film, but a random Kate nom would be much more fun.

EUROCHEESE: Infiniti over another Stone nod feels just as likely, but feels weird to have Bugonia in BP without Stone. (Arrival did it, though. Still bitter.)

ABE: The most competitive category of the year! Kate Hudson is in a very tight sixth place, and I think there may still be (dwindling) hope for Amanda Seyfried. I'd be quite surprised by anyone else, though, at this point, even if Jennifer Lawrence, Tessa Thompson, and Eva Victor will surely get some votes.

CHRIS: Kate has been out here campaigning and I feel confident it will work - but who does it leave out?

The Sentimental Value snub from SAG seems like a fluke, so to me, either Chase Infiniti or Emma Stone is vulnerable. OBAA is an unstoppable behemoth, and Infiniti has been all over the awards trail. I think it's a battle between Hudson and Stone on what movie star people want to reward, and it's going to break towards Hudson in this case.

BEN: I love the idea of Infiniti in Supporting, but I don't have any faith that the Academy will actually do it.  This five feels pretty secure, though Kate Hudson won't go away.

NATHANIEL: This category still feels volatile, which is a strange turn of events! In the end, I think Hollywood's love for Stone and Hudson will help them beat out the headliners of more divisive or challenging films (Seyfried, Thompson, Lawrence). I still curse SPC for not pushing Jodie Foster hard.

NICK: Nathaniel, I see your late-game category fraud prediction for Chase Infiniti. I understand it, I hate it, and I honestly don't think she's going to get snaked like that. Kate Hudson lowkey has Jennifer Aniston in Cake vibes to me, so maybe Emma Stone, Tessa Thompson, or (god willing) Jennifer Lawrence will swoop in, but this lineup feels very secure.

CLÁUDIO: I have a terrible feeling that tells me Hawke is going to be snubbed, but I can’t bring myself to predict it. C'mon, AMPAS, you owe this to him after that First Reformed snub!

ERIC: I'm going with Nathaniel on the snub for Michael B. Jordan...wonderful actor, but he's almost always better than he is in this film.  And don't we need surprises?  Guts...glory?

BABY CLYDE: I've been dubious about Jordan all season, but now we've come to the crunch, I'm caving.

EUROCHEESE: Earlier in the season, I would have predicted a Jordan snub, but he's deserved at least two other nods. Edgerton is subtle, so nope.

ABE: This list feels pretty stable. I don't think Jesse Plemons' SAG bid will be enough to carry him through, and Joel Edgerton is the star of a movie I'm predicting to do decently, which might go nowhere. I'm very worried about a Jordan snub, which would be really sad. 

CHRIS: Could Plemons sneak in here? Absolutely. But I think the industry loves Hawke and the role just scratches all of Oscar's favorite itches.

BEN: Thanks to the Globes win, Moura is safe.  Hawke, Jordan, Jesse Plemons, and Joel Edgerton could easily find themselves making it in, and it wouldn’t surprise me.  Hawke feels like a classic snub that people will be mad about for the next 15 years. 

NATHANIEL: I look like a stubborn ass, excluding Michael B Jordan here, but in the end, I still can't wrap my head around the actors' branch suddenly loving him for a role that is decidedly not traditional when it comes to awards, traditional when they've passed him over multiple times for much better and more Oscar-ready performances. My Joel Edgerton hunch looked stronger last month, but the surge of interest may have faded, in which case Jordan it probably is, but we shall see.

NICK: Tempted to sub Hawke in for Jordan or Edgerton, and would feel more confident about his security if the Academy had nominated him in 2018. Maybe I'm wrong!

CLÁUDIO: Because even if Grande misses, the Academy can't help itself. It needs to throw in some category fraud or they'll die. Even so, I'm hoping Infiniti makes it into the right category - Best Actress. So, this is me predicting through pessimism.

ERIC: I want to pick Gwyneth for that fifth slot so badly for guts/glory purposes, but I guess Sinners needs to show up somewhere in the acting categories, and this is the best bet.

BABY CLYDE: I put A’zion in my prediction at the beginning of the season, long before I'd seen the film. Since I have, I'm baffled that she's not a frontrunner. This category is a mess. I think she makes it. I'm very wobbly on Mosaku, much as I would love to see her get a spot. 

EUROCHEESE: Guessing we get a surprise snub here - Wunmi. Poor Elle - maybe next prestige film! 

ABE: I was insistent on both Sentimental Value women or both Marty Supreme women only throughout the whole season, but this feels like where it's headed. Regina Hall would be a shock given her lack of precursor love. A Lilleaas snub would be truly unfortunate, but there are a lot of contenders in this race.

CHRIS: Only Taylor and Madigan are safe in my book. I feel relatively confident that voters have been watching Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value, which is why A'zion and Lilleas feel like good representatives for their movies. Wicked has been fading, but Ariana Grande feels like the agreed upon consolation prize for the film, and I think that will be good enough for fifth place. Wunmi Mosaku is the heart and soul of Sinners, but I wonder if the genre elements cause it to miss in a place or two. 

BEN: Remember when people thought Ariana Grande was going to win?  Good times.  I have her out with A'zion taking the spot.  Grande showing up wouldn't blow me away, nor would Elle Fanning if they really love Sentimental Value. 

NATHANIEL: Realizing I was wrong that Sinners would have trouble with the acting branch -- and this category feeling strangely lacking in true competitors, I'm putting my cards on Wunmi Mosaku, who has done surprisingly well all season. I thought I was brilliant in predicting that the Academy would demote Chase Infiniti, but I've rethought and now I'm going with the one that gets votes in both categories and thereby just barely misses either.

NICK: Much love to Grande and the Marty Supreme divas, who could very well show up over Mosaku, but I like how this lineup looks and am choosing to believe it will happen. Why is everyone so down on Fanning missing???

CLÁUDIO: We're due some surprise, some major snub, and I think Elordi is it. Also, I've been feeling Caton will be nominated for a while now and can't see the Academy nominating two twenty-something relative heartthrobs at once.

ERIC: These are the five most folks are choosing, but I don't see anyone strong enough to usurp this quintet.

BABY CLYDE: Just think what this category could have been without the egregious category fraud!!! 

EUROCHEESE: I'd put money on these being the five. Not sure on the winner though.

ABE: Not that interesting, but also the surest thing (a dangerous thing to say) of any category. I'd be happy if Adam Sandler made the cut, but I think Miles Caton translating his SAG bid to knocking someone off here is likelier.

CHRIS: Feeling pretty confident here. If they LOVE Sinners, Miles Caton could get in here. If they FINALLY want to give Adam Sandler a nomination, it could happen (but I doubt they changed their tune since Jay Kelly has faded). Don't know who would miss, so I'm being adventurous and saying Penn is the potential snub, but not betting on it. 

BEN: I am no fan of Frankenstein, but if they want to award the film anywhere, Elordi is it.  I see him as safely in.  Caton and Lindo may be right behind Mescal, but I think they'll be fine with this five. 

NATHANIEL: Year after year, a disappointing category. If it weren't for Del Toro, we'd have a supporting category with no supporting performances whatsoever. I do have a weird feeling that either Mescal or Elordi could fall (despite precursor love), but who would replace them? Caton's SAG nomination feels ultra SAG in that I don't expect it to be repeated.

NICK: Cláudio's logic about Caton makes sense, and I want to predict him over Elordi mostly because the sheer number of outright leads here depressed me. Good-to-great work across the board, but we need Benicio to win, so an actual supporting role takes this.

CLÁUDIO: It sounds crazy to predict Sirat instead of Sentimental Value, but I've had a hunch that the casting branch will go with the Spanish film. There has to be passion behind it since it got into the shortlist, and the heavy use of non-professional actors that required an intensive casting process seems like it would appeal to these voters. 

ERIC: No way to know which way this will go... probably just down the line from the favored films of the year, but sneaking in The Secret Agent as a hoped-for nominee since the cast was so broad and interesting. 

BABY CLYDE: I'm a casting director, and I have zero confidence the branch will get this category right. 'Best' is not most, it's not starriest, and it certainly isn't who's been doing it the longest. Any of my top 3 winning would be triumph, but I fear it will just be OBAA. 

EUROCHEESE: I get the arguments for the others, and I know Sentimental Value has some detractors. These still just feel correct.

ABE: New category, who knows? Multiple international nominees would surprise me. 

CHRIS: I think the voters have The Secret Agent fever... that's my wild hunch. The first three feel somewhat safe, but I'm excited to understand if the casting branch has a wild streak. Having Sirat and Weapons in there makes me think they do. 

BEN: Lots of casting = Best Casting?  Do they award the longtime casting directors, or the films themselves?  New category, so it's hard to pin down.

NATHANIEL: Weapons is my wild card prediction because I'm hoping voters realize that Amy Madigan was a total stroke of inspiration, and they did well in finding the right child actor, too.

NICK: A mix of inevitable and exciting choices, with OBAA being the sweet middle ground. I'm probably being silly not predicting Hamnet, but aside from the Jupe casting coup, I'm not "rooting" for it to the degree of the five I picked.

CLÁUDIO: I trust in the power of Julia Roberts. Honestly, I don't even think a Picture or Best Actress nomination is totally out of the realm of possibility for Sorry, Baby. So I guess I'm being conservative in my predictions.

ERIC: It Was Just an Accident or Sentimental Value really should have been winning this award all season long.

BABY CLYDE: I don't think all of those International films are making it, but I don't want to take any of them out. 

EUROCHEESE: Ugh, I really want Eva Victor here, but it feels like hopedicting. Excited to see the writers go hard for international film... 

ABE: I took Sorry, Baby out until Julia Roberts hyped up the film. It's odd perhaps to have The Secret Agent not place when that's the likely International Feature winner, but this lineup feels distinctly possible.

CHRIS: I'm being bold and dropping It Was Just An Accident for Sorry, Baby. I sense a groundswell for The Secret Agent. Meanwhile, Julia Roberts used her platform 15 years ago to get people to watch Biutiful for Javier Bardem, I think it'll work again for Sorry, Baby. 

BEN: Please, please, please let a Sorry, Baby nomination happen.  It probably won't, but I can dream.

NATHANIEL: I wasn't going to predict Sorry, Baby, but that Globes moment suggests that Hollywood insiders are into it. And it solves the problem of what felt like a huge gap between fourth place and a whole mess of films competing for the one remaining open slot. 

NICK: Why do I keep lowballing Marty Supreme in these predictions? I like it plenty, so it's not like I'm wishing against it or anything. Maybe if I take Sinners, Sentimental Value, and It Was Just An Accident as a given, plus hoping for Secret Agent and Sorry, Baby to semi-surprise, PLUS wanting to predict as many titles starting with the letter S as possible. Poor Marty. Wish there was any hope for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You to surprise here.

CLÁUDIO: This branch loves Rian Johnson and Wake Up Dead Man has been doing well with the guilds, so I'm going to risk it and go with a Frankenstein snub. I realize I'm predicting a lot of snubs for the Netflix Gothic horror, which is probably silly on my part. 

ERIC: Hoping No Other Choice scores here. 

BABY CLYDE: No one needs a nomination for adapting a book that's been adapted a million times before. 

EUROCHEESE: ...including here! Even as a Frankenstein fan, the script wasn't the highlight. (Please don't do something like Nuremberg.) 

ABE: Frankenstein will probably get nominated, but I think this list makes more sense.

CHRIS: I'm as shocked as anyone why every branch loves Frankenstein, but they do.

BEN: If there is one thing I hate about Frankenstein more than anything else, it's the script.  Am I predicting it missing because things are better, or because I want it to miss very badly?  Can't it be both?  I say Rian Johnson goes 3-3 with Blanc mysteries.

NATHANIEL: Betting against Wake Up Dead Man is risky, but eventually franchises miss in whichever category they typically reign.

NICK: Whether or not Bugonia shows up anywhere else, this feels like a slim enough category to predict its inclusion. Frankly, OBAA and Hamnet are so far out ahead of everyone else, I wonder if we'll get a wild-ass fifth slot purely because everyone else was fighting for the same scraps. Just not Frankenstein, please.

CLÁUDIO: Playing it safe, but holding on to my "Frankenstein will underperform" delusion. 

ERIC: Marty Supreme's acclaim truly escapes me, but as I'm in the minority, this category seems like a no-brainer for it.  Hoping the editors really got how subtly beautiful the editing is in Sentimental Value, and how it gives the film its transfixing power. 

EUROCHEESE: Hated F1 but fine with it getting in here. Wildly impressive top three.

ABE: F1 aside, this list does feel too Best Picture-centric given many famous snubs, but I'm sticking with it.

CHRIS: They're gonna go boring, I fear. Nearly predicted The Secret Agent here, but maybe that's a bridge too far.

BEN: Best Picture-lite and one nominee that has great editing on its own (which might also be a BP nominee).

NATHANIEL: While I would love to dream that Hamnet or Train Dreams or Bugonia or Sentimental Value could get around Frankenstein, pessimism has overtaken me. Editors can often help right a ship that's moving in the wrong direction toward awkward narrative rhythms and inconsistent quality of acting, but this ship is very much still stuck in that kind of ice.

NICK: I'm now remembering how fucking boring a lot of the craft category nominations were last year, so consider me pleasantly surprised if we get any love for films not nominated for Best Picture. Not that I give a shit about F1.

CLÁUDIO: Those guild snubs for Hamnet have me doubting what, a few weeks ago, felt like a pretty safe bet in this category.

ERIC: This branch often surprises, so the temptation to go with something like Nouvelle Vague was huge, but I think this branch likes Lukasz Zal's work, so I think he'll clear, end of the day.

EUROCHEESE: I maintain that Frankenstein looked great on IMAX.

ABE: There aren't enough slots! Marty Supreme may knock one of these off, plus there are some intriguing choices on the rather large shortlist. 

CHRIS: That's right... I think Sirat is getting in. Go big or go home. The Oscars are international, and they love that crazy movie. Hamnet is a movie that a lot of people love, but many also don't. I wonder if its divisiveness will cost it a couple key nominations.

BEN: Train Dreams should be walking away with this category, and I'm not confident of a nomination.  I just wish I loved them all as opposed to the ones that are trying too hard (looking at you, Frankenstein).

NATHANIEL: It's strange that One Battle and Hamnet both feel vulnerable in Cinematography. If one of them slips, I imagine Marty Supreme slips in. But part of me thinks we'll get a shocking Nouvelle Vague nomination, since this branch is always so partial to black-and-white pictures, regardless of the actual quality of the lensing.

NICK: Sound of Falling almost certainly isn't getting nominated, and Marty Supreme will almost certainly get in instead. But I felt such pain predicting Frankenstein that I had to treat myself to my favorite of the shortlisted films.

CLÁUDIO: Feeling pretty confident about this one. Now watch me only get 3 out of 5 right or something. Avatar and Bugonia are waiting in the wings. 

ERIC: This is a category that in the past would surprise, but their choices in recent years have aligned closer to the Best Picture nominees.  There are so many better choices for this category than these, but here we are... 

EUROCHEESE: Talked myself into predicting The Fantastic Four. Why not have a little fun?

ABE: I'd be so thrilled to see The Fantastic Four: First Steps here, but I just don't see it happening.

CHRIS: This is where I try and think of "most" rather than “best,” and I also feel we're getting some blockbusters here. One Battle is going to get so many nominations, but I struggle to see the argument here, especially over Avatar and Wicked when both of them are sequels to films that have won this. Hamnet is vulnerable, but I think this is the craft branch that rewards it.

BEN: I wish this category got a bit more shine, but this is mostly a showcase of practicality and background, so I get it.  Wish Marty Supreme was more of a contender here.

NATHANIEL: These feel like the clear five. Though I wish we could make room for something out of the main conversation because Fantastic Four: First Steps has every right to claim space here! 

NICK: A quality lineup, but I hate not expecting any curveballs. Hoping Kokuho or some other deserving but unexpected opulence makes itself known. Feel like I should be predicting Avatar here, but I don't know who I'd excise for it.

CLÁUDIO: Hamnet feels a tad too barebones and low-key, sartorially speaking, for this branch, but I struggle to imagine a 16th-century set Best Picture nominee missing here. My wildcard prediction is that the voters' love for Atwood and a pretty smart campaign will propel OBAA to a deserved nomination here. 

ERIC: Sticking my neck out for Spider Woman.  Costumers love bold, bright colors and musicals, and I'm hoping this is one of the day's surprises. 

EUROCHEESE: Rooting hard for Hedda and I think it's happening. I'd actually prefer Marty Supreme and The Secret Agent over Hamnet and Sinners, but doubt it'll happen given their guild snubs. 

ABE: The GoldDerby odds suggest The Testament of Ann Lee is in fifth place, but I have a hard time believing - and accepting - that its sole mention could be for its costumes when it's deserving of so much more. Its shortlist omissions make me seriously doubt its chances anywhere.

CHRIS: The Oscars have not done an amazing job spreading the wealth. The shortlists gave a good indication of what movies they're watching and I don't feel like Hedda or Ann Lee are really being caught up on (though I would like to be wrong). I think a surprise One Battle nomination comes in here for the "Halloween costume" meme-ability of it all.

BEN: One of the few categories where OBAA might not show up.  It would be cool if they go off the beaten path, but I'm not optimistic.

NATHANIEL: I'm going for an out of left field nomination for Japan's Oscar finalist because the Kokuho is like "Costumes & Makeup: The Movie". It's also easy to picture Marty Supreme knocking out any of the lower-ranked contenders -- Miyako Bellizzi had an impressive year! See also The History of Sound.

NICK: See the above sentiment, only here I think (hope, pray) Kokuho actually breaks through. If Marty Supreme makes it here, I'll be very happy for them.

CLÁUDIO: It's probably stupid to predict both international shortlisted titles missing, but I'm guessing the branch loves Mark Coulier too much to let Wicked's failings cancel that out. 

ERIC: Frankenstein has this award wrapped up already, so the rest are really just filler.  But I see Kokuho nabbing a nomination...a very flamboyant execution for this category. 

EUROCHEESE: I feel like One Battle and Sinners are matching at 13. Feel so strongly about it, I decided The Smashing Machine shows up here.

ABE: I was impressed - and revolted - by the work in The Ugly Stepsister, so I'd appreciate it if that made the cut. Not sure it will. 

CHRIS: The Makeup branch is the best place for a "weird" nomination, and the shortlist gave us a number of inspired choices. I'm only going for one off the beaten path - Kokuho (knowing the increasing international proclivities of the branch). I also feel like the surprise best picture coattails nod here will be Marty Supreme over One Battle, but just a hunch. 

BEN: Consistently the coolest and most interesting category that doesn't shy away from doing something other categories won't.  That's why Kokuho makes sense here.

NATHANIEL: I'm going to stick to my initial hunch that Kokuho is a surprise double nominee in the craft categories. If there's a shocking miss that surprises people here, I think it might actually be Sinners, since horror is not well-loved by the makeup branch.

NICK: Kazu Hiro has won this award twice for his prosthetics work, so god willing, this is the only category The Smashing Machine slams its beat-up head into. And it's not bad makeup, so good for her! I'll be pleasantly surprised if Sinners actually makes it, given how this category treats most horror films (poor Weapons). Meanwhile, a nomination for The Ugly Stepsister would be divine.

CLÁUDIO: I don't think this branch will be too in love with the Frankenstein team's anti-CGI rhetoric throughout the season. Similarly, I feel like The Lost Bus will prove that all those VSC nods weren't a fluke. None of the Jurassic World movies got a nom here, so I'm guessing AMPAS will stay faithful to their strange love affair with the TRON franchise.

ERIC: Sometimes this branch champions not-included-elsewhere titles... so I'm going with Superman as the choice, but these voters are very unpredictable.

EUROCHEESE: I believe even Del Toro downplayed his movie's effects.

ABE: This feels too easy - which of the other five am I underestimating?

CHRIS: I'm not betting against the Best Picture coattails - Sinners just feels too big to miss here, even though there are some larger blockbusters. I'm toying between Superman and Tron. Both have had chapters that have made it in here, but also been snubbed. Part of me wants to be crazy and do The Lost Bus, but I'm going to play it safe here.

BEN: Three surefire nominees and two nominees where you could throw a dart and get lucky.

NATHANIEL: The visual effects branch made such strange selections in the finals that it feels like anything might happen. The Lost Bus and Superman (since this branch isn't into DC pictures) showing up at all leads me to believe they can surprise. It's probably foolish to ditch Sinners, but in what other year would a movie with effects that minimal be competitive?

NICK: The definitive category of films that otherwise don't exist on Oscar's ballot. But hey, they're not gonna stick to Best Picture contenders for the hell of it! They're gonna keep doing whatever the fuck they want, improbably keeping TRON relevant for dear life.

CLÁUDIO: This branch is very fond of repeating nominees and getting real loyal to old favorites. So, I'm going with Zimmer and Hauschka for those last two spots.  Surely, they won't nominate Wicked again! Please tell me that nonsense won't happen twice.

ERIC: Outside of Hamnet, these scores aren't exactly the "lush" sort of compositions that used to dominate this category.  There's been an interesting turn in tastes here recently.

EUROCHEESE: I need Greenwood to surge, guys. Train Dreams is also possible but I feel like Sirat's surprise shortlist love pays off here.

ABE: This list also feels too predictable, but all five are quite deserving. I remain steadfast on my prediction for Sirat since it did so well on the shortlist and its music is certainly unique. Justice for Daniel Blumberg!

CHRIS: Once again, Sirat making it on all those lists gives me a lot of hope for it. I see it sneaking in here.

BEN: Do they like the actual music, or do they like the person making the music?  There is usually very little difference when it comes to the nominations. 

NATHANIEL: Banking for passion for Train Dreams, boosting it into the top five, though this category is quite competitive. Marty Surpreme would be an easy choice to replace one of these and I have to wonder about Sirat (which would be a very cool nomination).

NICK: Best Picture roulette babyyyyy. Train Dreams surely has a good shot, but I think Hamnet has it outgunned as far as heartstring plucking, unless of course they both get in.

CLÁUDIO: "Academy Award nominee Sara Bareilles" has a nice ring to it, doesn't it? She's the main reason I'm predicting that surprise Come See In the Good Light nod. Also, I bet the Wicked songs will split the vote, while F1's single shortlisted tune will go the distance. Also, Diane Warren's there because she always is.

ERIC: Relentless, indeed.  This entire category is a joke every year, and I wish it would be retired permanently.

EUROCHEESE: God forbid we snub Diane Warren. I'm going to say they make the cool pick with "Our Love." (Please?) "Highest 2 Lowest" should be here, but whatever.

ABE: This may be too mainstream. I'd be so happy with "Our Love" getting in, though I'll admit I do think that Diane Warren's song is one of her best in recent years. 

CHRIS: Never bet against Diane Warren. 

BEN: Diane Warren's reign of terror must be stopped (but it won't be this year). 

NATHANIEL: Sadly, I think the impossibly beautiful "Salt Then Sour Then Sweet" is out. If there's a surprise inclusion, it could be "Highest 2 Lowest," given a fairly prominent campaign in this category. 

NICK: Diane Warren's Sisyphean march to that competitive Oscar will continue unabated. There's every chance these divas double down on the Wicked tracks, but I don't want that to happen.

CLÁUDIO: Both the Avatar and Mission: Impossible franchises have done well in this category before, but I'm guessing they miss this time around. Mostly because I want to believe the branch that made that Zone of Interest victory possible won't ignore Sirat. Finally, they love live-recorded musicals for some God-forsaken reason, so Wicked's still in. I hope I'm wrong.

ERIC: Personally, I think the sound in both Wicked movies was terrible and can't bring myself to include it again.

EUROCHEESE: I think F1 will win and that's fine.

ABE: Sirat here is going to happen, I'm convinced of it. I had Mission: Impossible in before, but have since switched it out.

CHRIS: The Oscars are going crazy for those desert ravers. If they saw the movie, they're voting for it here. 

BEN: I love the idea of a lone nomination coming in sound and Sirat fits that bill.  Everything else makes sense. 

NATHANIEL: I'm betting Avatar beats Frankenstein and Wicked: For Good in the subcategory of "technical-merits-of-a-would-be-blockbuster" because surely the whole shortlist can't be from the same subcategory! Hence, the bet on Sirat. 

NICK: I'll be so crushed if Sirat doesn't happen *here* of all places.

CLÁUDIO: I can't quite believe the Academy will do three foreign productions here, hence why I still have Elio holding on for dear life. Alternatively, I could see The Bad Guys 2 taking its place.

ERIC: Who knows on this one? 

EUROCHEESE: Done deal (winner and noms). 

ABE: In Your Dreams? Scarlet? This list feels too straightforward, but it's a strong and varied crop.

CHRIS: Sometimes the expected answers are the right ones.

BEN: What else has been showing up anywhere? Scarlet? A Magnificent Life?  Nothing else is popping in order to supplant one of the mainstays.  Though the animation branch is always its own thing.

NATHANIEL: I see the wide open fifth slot as a race that's all about "default" attachments -- Elio isn't well loved but it's Pixar and Magnificent Life isn't well loved but it's Sylvain Chomet and In Your Dreams isn't well-loved but it was an assumed contender (which can help when your rivals aren't generating much passion either). 

NICK: Have only seen Little Amélie, which is so gorgeous, and everyone should watch it. Do we think the cat from Flow will be presenting at the Oscars?

CLÁUDIO: This branch likes to throw us a curveball and Seeds seems like the exact type of surprise they've accustomed us to over the years. That said, the only reason I'm predicting against an Apocalypse in the Tropics nod is that three Netflix movies feel like too much considering what's happening in the industry right now.

ERIC: I still feel that The Perfect Neighbor won't make it with this branch since it's all found footage, but if so, that's a major shift in the medium.

EUROCHEESE: I really want to predict the Perfect Neighbor snub - settling for knocking it to #2. 

ABE: Lots of great films on the shortlist and I'm sure these won't be entirely right. I still don't understand how My Undesirable Friends - good as it was - is allowed to compete with the rest of these movie-length entries.

CHRIS: The documentary branch usually goes for "hard-to-watch" war stories over personal dramas, so I think Mr. Nobody Against Putin edges in over Come See Me In The Good Light despite that Song shortlist mention.

BEN: The ficklest of branches.  Sometimes, they love the populist picks, sometimes they pick things out of absolutely nowhere.  I don't know where they want to be, and I can barely anticipate what they will cling to.  Would love to see Come See Me in the Good Light, but I'm not optimistic.

NATHANIEL: I'd love to see Come See Me in the Good Light here. I'm betting on Mr. Nobody because Danish people have good Oscar luck. And since I wanted to pick one 'surprise' that is lower on buzz, I'm going with Cutting Through Rocks. 

NICK: I expect the mammoth runtime of My Undesirable Friends will be a barrier to getting more eyes on it, but it's so fucking worth it, and anyone who finishes a five-hour doc might nominate it just to flex on their opps.

CLÁUDIO: Part of me wants to predict Kokuho because of its astronomical box office success, it being about actors, which remain the most represented profession in the Academy, and the ramp-up in publicity during the voting period ahead of a stateside IMAX re-release. However, Sirat significantly overperformed in the shortlists. I'm torn.

ERIC: That final slot is truly anybody's guess, so I'm going with a film I love despite it not being a leading candidate for that slot.  Maybe people caught it in the last week or two of voting??

BABY CLYDE: There's going to be a shock here, but I'm not sure what it will be, so just going with the obvious 5.

EUROCHEESE: Still worried about a No Other Choice snub, and it would be funny if it missed here and got Screenplay. Wish Sound of Falling could fit in. Voice of Hind Rajab is definitely possible.

ABE: All NEON? I imagine that The Voice of Hind Rijab, Left-Handed Girl, and Belén are the likeliest to bump any of them out, but I think this list is going to happen.

CHRIS: I've been surprised by how quiet No Other Choice has been. If any of NEON's films have fallen off, it's this one. The International Feature branch has always had a surprise or two up its sleeve, and I don't see them rewarding only one studio. Kaouther Ben Hania (director of The Voice of Hind Rajab) has been nominated here twice before. I think they'll make room for her a third time.

BEN: An embarrassment of riches.  They have never given Park a single look, so why do I predict it now?  They eventually have to realize brilliance when they see it, right? 

NATHANIEL: I am so extremely sad about predicting that No Other Choice (my very favorite submission this season) misses that I have no energy to talk about the films I actually am predicting. 

NICK: Oscar's shortlist looks unusually sturdy, leaving a lot of room to surprise but little room for actual fuck-ups. The inevitabilities here are fantastic. This can easily be the best category of the night.

CLÁUDIO: For some reason, I think of some of this year's contenders in pairs. Consider the two horror-adjacent titles about the artistic process - Playing God and The Quinta's Ghost. Or the environmental stories about lonely bears - Snow Bear and Forevergreen. In both cases, I went with only one of the options. Then there are the works from established branch favorites, the personal passion projects, and the ever-present representation of traditional stop-motion. As ever, I'm going in a bit blind here, but these are my best guesses. 

ABE: I'd love to see Butterfly join this list in a year of very varied and impressive animated short entries.

BEN: There's plenty of sweet, vibrant animation between Snow Bear, Cardboard, and Forevergreen, but I think they all cancel each other out.  The stories and the craft get the nods here, with the craft of Playing God and the stories of the rest. 

NATHANIEL: This year, my emotional attachment lies solely with The Girl Who Cried Pearls.

CLÁUDIO: With the exception of Children No More, this feels a tad too American for this branch, but it's where I'm at. I imagine hot-button issues and emotional approaches will help many of these, especially All The Walls Come Down, which will surely hit close to home for many Oscar voters. Jay Rosenblatt is also there because he's starting to become this category's Diane Warren. 

ABE: Lots of great alternatives like Cashing Out, The Devil is Busy, and On Healing Lands, Birds Perch. Last Days on Lake Trinity also feels like very Oscar-friendly fare.

BEN: Lots of good options (not including the Jay Rosenblatt drivel).  You could exclude and include anything besides those top two, and I wouldn't bat an eye.

NATHANIEL: The only nominations that would shock me are We Were the Scenery (I think they'll feel it's too slight, though it's an interesting perspective on Apocalypse Now) or Perfectly a Strangeness (which is probably too experimental for them).

CLÁUDIO: It's very stupid to predict such a small number of children suffering in this race, yet these films have that Oscar vibe around them. Either because of their premises or the execution, their political message, or, in one case, the fact that I hated it so much that my pessimist ass can't help but feel AMPAS will nominate it just to spite me. I’m looking at you, Pantyhose!

ABE: I worry that the big name, albeit international, in Two People Exchanging Saliva may hurt its chances, as it has done to Pedro Almodóvar's shortlisted films in the past. Jane Austen's Period Drama was hilarious, and Pantyhose would be a great humorous companion.

BEN: You can never anticipate what this branch wants.  Some good female stories across the board, but there isn't an overarching theme to nail down.  Outside of Butterfly on a Wheel, there's nothing I would object to 

NATHANIEL: The ones that are most intriguing from the outside, like The Pearl Comb and Two People Exchanging Saliva, would also feel like atypical nominees. But you never know in Shorts-Land.

Please share your “no guts, no glory” predictions in the comments. Go big or go home!

Comments

[Tony L]

Some thoughts that would make tomorrow amazing!!

Actor - Jordan! DiCaprio (meh) Chalamet (ugh) Moura and Byung-Hun!! :)
Actress - Bryne definitely with a surprise Lawrence nom
S Actor - Caton and Lindo!! Del Toro, Skarsgaard, Elordi
S Actress - Madigan!!! Wunmi and Ariana.

Usually more about the female acting categories but really keeping an eye on the male acting categories this year. Please please don’t let me too disappointed tomorrow!!

[DK]

Would've loved to see Paltrow predicted by someone—anyone!—but I agree it's a bit of a reach and I'll just hope to be pleasantly surprised.

No chance at all that Chase pops up in supporting. There's been no precursor confusion whatsoever about her placement in Best Actress; If you look at ladies like Catherine Zeta Jones in Chicago, Kate Winslet in The Reader, Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind, Rachel Weisz in The Constant Gardener, those were all up in the air as Globe, BAFTA, etc. weighed in with different placements. I can't think of a recent example where someone got demoted at the last minute by the AMPAS, it's either a Best Actress nod or nothing for her.

[Cláudio Alves]

DK -- LaKeith Stanfield may have only received four nominations for JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH prior to that shocking Oscar nod, yet they were all in Leading Actor categories. But I get what you're saying. It's very unlikely, probably my wildest guess here. I hope you're right and, in the end, she's nominated in the Best Actress category, where I feel she rightfully belongs.

[DK]

Claudio—forgot that one. I guess I assume people who are fired up about Infiniti and OBAA won't challenge the successful campaign she's run to date, and there are plenty of passion vote siphoners in Supporting Actress already. A splinter campaign for her in Supporting doesn't feel like it'd overtake the Marty Supreme ladies for example, neither of whom might get in.

[Marsha Mason]

Ole Marsha picked Plemons to get a nomination on here a month ago, so for bragging rights I'd love to see it go through. Bugonia, OBAA, and Eddington all feel somewhat similarly themed and zeitgeisty, and his confused, insane, and paranoid performance the most zeitgeisty of all, so I'm surprised he seems to be on the outside looking in. I'd say he finds more range, and with a weaker script, than Leo or Penn. (Bugonia's (lame, imo) ending may hurt his chances.) But I think Edgerton and Hawke are fading, and Jordan may have weaker support, as they don't historically like vampire performances. So he has a shot!

A Gwyneth nomination would be super-fun, and I can imagine voters going for it. She's been charming on a couple of podcasts she's been appearing on, and I don't think support for Elle, Ariana, or Odessa is really that solid.