10 Takeaways From The Oscar Nominations
Thursday, January 22, 2026 at 11:40AM by Nathaniel R
If you predicted AVATAR FIRE AND ASH in costumes. Please take the week off in celebration and invest immediately in gambling because you are psychic.
Dear readers, as I recreate the Oscar charts to reflect nominations and add "Reader Choice" polling, consider these 10 off-the-cuff takeaways about this morning's Oscar nominations -- you can see the full list (as well as my prediction score) here. In the meantime I hope you enjoy these takeaways and answer three questions that come to mind...
10 TAKEAWAYS + 4 COMMENT PARTY QUESTIONS
Oscar Voters Can Still Surprise Us!
I really didn't expect to type this. "Surprises" generally being an overstatement when it comes to Oscar results. Even if something happens that isn't widely expected it's usually at least been talked up as a "spoiler" possibility for months. In comes the Costume Design branch to keep us on our toes. Who on Gods Green Earth or Pandora's Blue Oceans saw a Best Costume Design nomination coming for the CGI loincloths and tribal accessories of Avatar Fire and Ash !?
Not I! And we don't even have immense popularity of the film to blame since it wasn't as well reviewed as its predecessors and couldn't even manage Sound or Production Design nominations.
F1: THE DAD MOVIE Stop Underestimating Dad Movies
While people began to predict F1: The Movie at the last minute (after its PGA showing) for most of the year it was regarded as "will probably show up in a couple of craft categories only". It's showing this morning withfour nominations (Picture, Sound, Editing, Visual Effects) reminds us that Dad Movies are often underestimated in punditry but still show up on Nomination Morning. A lesser (and much lower quality) example this year is Nuremberg surprising on some shortlists a month ago though it didn't actually score any nominations.
Leonardo DiCaprio's Amazing Eye for "Future Best Picture"
We've all experienced actors we love choosing badly when it comes to film projects. But nobody who loves Leo really knows what this pain feels like. While the world's biggest prestige movie star could definitely stand to take more risks -- when was the last time he used his massive power to boost an unlikely but worthy project or work with a first time director... or even a mid-career director who wasn't already a major auteur? -- he does have a knack for getting behind films that are going to turn out real well. Should One Battle After Another follow in the footsteps of Titanic (1997) and The Departed (2006) and win Best Picture... he will tie other living legends like Meryl Streep, Jack Nicholson (and several late legends like Clark Gable, Diane Keaton, and John Cazale) in the category of "Actor Who Has Appeared in the Most Best Picture Winners". He's only 51 so we're willing to bet that he eventually breaks the long-standing record. If you widen that record to "Actor Who Has Appeared in the Most Best Picture Nominees" his track record is even stronger. It helps of course that Oscar moved to an expanded Best Picture field during his A-List years but he has now starred in an incredible 12 Best Picture Nominees, tying that other Scorsese favourite Robert DeNiro in the process. Only one actor has them beat: the character actor Ward Bond. It would take a lot for other actors to catch DeNiro and DiCaprio -- only two living actors currently feel anything like a threat: Cate Blanchett who has been in 10 BP nominees and Timothee Chalamet who has been famous for less than a decade, has been racking them up with incredible speed and is already at 8 with Marty Supreme.
The Limits of Monopoly / All Hail the New Monopoly!
For much of the year it felt like NEON had little competition in the Best International Feature Film race. In fact, even toward the end it was tempting to predict that they'd entirely own the category (a feat that's never been accomplished) with 100% of the nominations. It wasn't just that their acquistion and development teams have extraordinary taste on the regular. It was also good luck. Many a great film has been snubbed during the shortlisting phase of this category but all five of their buzziest subtitled films (Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, It Was Just An Accident, No Other Choice, and Sirat) made the 15 film wide cut. It also helped that the other distributors who tend to have. a strong track record in this category (A24, Netflix, SPC, Janus Films) just didn't appear to be trying as hard or pushing as many titles this season. In the end their best submission (No Other Choice) was the one left on the outside lookign in. I'm tremendously sad about that but it probably isn't healthy for one distributor to own an entire Oscar game.
I have NO OTHER CHOICE but to pardon Park Chan Wook and South Korea should they drop a large plant on the heads of Oscar voters
What Does the Academy Have Against South Korea?
Given the Globalization of Oscar (more on that in a minute) it remains strange and (frankly) fucking annoying that Oscar voters keep passing on South Korean films. Parasite is still the only film from South Korea they've ever nominated which is immensely stupid given the generally high quality of the country's submissions and also the fact that Korean cinema is hardly lacking in enthusiasts in the real world. Why can't it penetrate Oscar ballots?
Coattails Will Always Be a Thing
The following is not a judgment! The coattail effect -- i.e. when a very popular thing (usually a Best Picture lock but sometimes an actor) pulls a craft element or performance into contention that otherwise probably wouldn't have been "considered" --doesn't give AF about quality; Sometimes this happens for very worthy achievements and sometimes it helps mediocre efforts. So you decide for yourself the worthiness of the following nominations but they all feel like they surely benefitted from borrowed glory via the immense popularity of their film OR their lead thespian: Blue Moon in Original Screenplay (though sadly coattails didn't help Oscar worthy Andrew Scott in Supporting), Michael B Jordan in Sinners (only the second vampire performance ever nominated and the only previous had more "Oscar" hooks and was decidedly less of a horror movie, Delroy Lindo in Sinners, One Battle After Another's Production Design... what else do you think benefitted?
Wicked For Good's Total Collapse
While I saw it coming -- I'd been predicting Erivo and Grande to miss all year even when people said I was foolish -- I admit that I was surprised to see it go all the way from "assumed contender all over the place" to completely snubbed in just a couple of months time. Missing in Best Song for example feels very pointedly bitchy like "begone... you have no power here" The industry has been moving toward transitioning Movies into Big TV Episodes for a long time with their franchise obsession and we've been worried about the Oscars becoming the Emmys with people nominated multiple times for the very same achievement but we've avoided that terror... for now! Next time maybe don't split your big movie into two movies just to charge people twice!
Delroy Lindo finally gets payback for that snub for DA 5 BLOODS
Category Fraud Already Won the War... But A Few Victories for the Losers (All Supporting Players)
While the precursors and the media have long cemented / cheered on the full colonization of the supporting categories, leaving character actors without the home that was built for them, we must cheer small victories! The Academy rejected Paul Mescal's shameless bid for Supporting (love love love his acting but that was gross) despite playing Shakespeare in a movie about the Shakespeare marriage and replaced him with Delroy Lindo (long seen as a spoiler possibility for this honor though the precursors just weren't biting). Not that there aren't leads in that category. Meanwhile over in Supporting Actress, with Ariane Grande getting ousted at the last moment despite full media support (I predicted no nods for Grande & Erivo all year and people thought I was crazy) we have a full 100% of the supporting actress category going to actual supporting actresses!!! IT'S A CHRISTMAS* MIRACLE. We're glad for these small victories because the way the culture has decided Best Supporting should be retitled Best Lead Spillover is very 21st century 1% worship but obscene. Honestly people (and awards voters!) Category Fraud is like naming your CEO "Employee of the Month". They already have their own Awards opportunities, not to mention other perks that are (mostly) denied supporting actors (Big Fame, Enormous Salaries, Constant Media Fawning, Etc...)
* Oscar nomination morning is our Christmas, don'cha know
Globalization Continues
While we didn't break the barrier of "Most Non-English Language Best Picture Nominees" that many pundits were predicting (It Was Just An Accident stalled out in Picture/Director), subtitled features still did very well. All but one of the Best International Feature Film nominees received at least one nomination outside of that category, too.
All Records Will Eventually Be Broken
When films as seismically successful as Titanic (1997) or as instantly popular as La La Land (2016) couldn't break the 14 nomination record first set by All About Eve (1950) 75 years ago, we figured it just wouldn't happen. We were wrong! Sinners obliterated the record setting a new record of 16. So now "second place" is two nominations less. Of course it helped that the Oscars added a category for the first time in ages (Best Casting). This is all along way of saying that Katharine Hepburn with her seemingly insurmountable four lead acting wins (she's held that record for over 40 years) and Meryl Streep with her most acting nominations ever (she's held the record since 2002's Adaptation and then kept breaking it) had better watch their backs.
4 NEW QUESTIONS
IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT that cinephile pundits got carried away
What happened to It Was Just An Accident?
Was that widely expected Director nomination for Panahi and even a somewhat regularly predicted Best Picture berth just a cinephile fever dream? It didn't do poorly with 2 nominations but it didn't break through in the way it was widely expected to either. Was it Sirat's sudden surge? Neon having more films than they could adequately campaign for... or were voters just not really that into it?
Can Sinners beat One Battle to Best Picture?
It would be wrong to say that any of Sinner's 16 nominations are a shock but ALL of them combined? There is not a single category in which Sinners was eligible that it was not nominated. I am struggling to think of that being true of any other film in history. The same is not true of One Battle (which missed a few it was eligible for). Sinners even scored for its Makeup (despite Oscar voters regularly shunning horror films) and Visual Effects even though it's inarguably more of a Supporting Visual FX movie and this category tends towards "Most" Visual FX). The race for Best Picture might be more intense than precursors suggest.
Coattails didn't help super-worthy Andrew Scott but Ethan Hawke could still win for BLUE MOON
Best Actor: Chalamet or Hawke?
With Blue Moon's mildly surprising entrance into Best Original Screenplay might Hawke have just enough of a boost to win career honors. Oscar voters do LOVE movies about showbiz and biopics. Plus he's been working forever and has great taste and deserves more nominations than he's received. Meanwhile though Chalamet's career is red hot and he's admittedly spectacular in Marty Supreme. I didn't think he'd ever top his Call Me By Your Name performance and I was wrong.
Best Casting - How would you grade their inaugural year?
We haven't had a new Oscar category in decades. What do you make of this first year's results? The finalist list suggested a weird mix of savvy discerning AND totally ignorant of what casting directors even do -- I'm suddenly feeling nice so I'm not going to point out those films by name but how can you take it seriously when they shortlisted one particular film with no casting work (a sequel without new characters) and a film where the performance quality was all over the place with arguably only a single piece of inspiration in casting and otherwise xeroxed from "currently ubiquitous SAG member" alongside films which obviously benefitted enormously from the casting directors savvy eye and a difficult make-or-break assignment. I don't know quite what to make of this or how to grade them. So I want to say "B" -- the nominee list is solid in the end but the longlists suggested the final quintet could fall anywhere from totally amazing to absolute disaster so I don't want to give them too much credit.
YOUR TURN. HOW DID YOUR CHRISTMAS/OSCAR NOMINATION MORNING GO?
Reader Comments (17)
Look, I’m thrilled that Wicked: For Good got nothing—but the idea that the films are radically different in quality is absurd. Both are hideous, both are overlong, both have performances all over the place, neither does anything interesting or sophisticated with the musical’s message and themes. Costumes inconsistent, lighting bad, sets an eyesore, tone a mess—the musical equivalent of the worst Tim Burton dreck.
Those seams and cracks were evident last year in Part 1; People who wanted John M. Chu to be the SECOND COMING OF BOB FOSSE just looked the other way.
It feels like Wicked: For Good is taking the fall for a set of failures no one wanted to acknowledge the first time around.
I'm pleased as punch, despite the lack of love for Hedda and The Testament of Ann Lee (neither of which showed up in any of my predictions, so no surprise).
-I'm not even mad about the annual Diane Warren nomination.
-They clearly HATED Wicked For Good to shun it even in Costumes and Song.
-Sad for Eva Victor. Not even in Screenplay. The Julia Roberts push came too late, sadly.
-Thrilled for Delroy Lindo. Might he even be in contention for the win?
-Wondering if Chase Infiniti campaigned in Supporting if she would have taken Fanning's spot?
-Love seeing Amy Madigan and Kate Hudson get nominations so long after their 1st ones.
"Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf" is the only other picture to be nominated for every category it was eligible for.
Some initial thoughts:
- Elle Fanning! Yay. Sentimental Value got the love it deserves.
- The Secret Agent getting a lot of love, too.
- No nominations for Wicked. That's just hilarious.
- F1 in Best Picture. Ugh. Fuck off.
- Rose Byrne!
- Sinners being the most nominated movie of all time is just embarrassing. No one, even if you LOVED it, can tell me with a straight face that it deserves to break that record. Get real.
- Delroy Lindo getting nominated over Paul Mescal. Just no. He's fun in the movie, sure, but where is the acting? He says a few jokes and that's it. Where is the character? I don't care about the category fraud. Get rid of Elordi, then. Lindo deserved it for Da 5 Bloods, not this.
- Avatar getting costumes. WHAT?
- Blue Moon getting screenplay over Sorry, Baby. I guess the standing ovation for Julia and her shoutout achieved nothing.I expected Hawke's horrible, cartoonish performance to be in, but not that awful, grating screenplay.
- Marty Supreme is the most overrated film of 2025 after Sinners. I don't want Timmy to win. But I'll take him over Hawke any day.
Ok people I am going to get the moaning out of the way first,Lesley Manville cover your ears.
16 nominations for Sinners is real overkill though.
Lindo is a nice addition as he deserved it 5 years ago but it's not great acting really.
I am sad MBJ took away a spot from 2 better performance by Plemons,Clooney,Edgerton and the one person I have been championing Dylan O'Brien.
Best Actress is better without Chase,she's supporting through and through and to the cinema snobs who sneer at Kate Hudson you can be really great in a fairly basic movie.
Elle Fanning has been building up to this and is good in the film but after SAGand Bafta left her off I thought only Ibsdotter was getting in and the MS ladies would be the 2 from the same film nominated,I think it's a good category which Amy should win but won't.
F1 has been building momentum for weeks now and is a good solid piece of Hollywood filmaking,how many BP nominees has Pitt been in now.
The Mescal snub I saw coming,I just couldn't see anyone being passionate about him and though i'm glad for Lindo who has been brightening up films for years I am sad it wasn't Andrew Scott.
Is this Diane Warren's year or does Sinners take it.
I thought all year long the star power of The Rock,Paltrow,Roberts,Clooney and Sandler would see them sail to nominations,these stars Oscar time has probably passed.
They will never forgive Sandler for the dross he has made and still makes,one or 2 good performances obviously doesn't cut it.
Well done for the del Toro director snub,he really messed that film up outside of Elordi nothing works.
Congratulations Chloe for joining a very small rare club.
Some great original screenplays this year Sorry Baby and Twinless among them.
Sentimental Value for editing I don't get,that film was so mundane and needed some chopping,it just kept repeating the same points,one daughter doesn't get on with her dad and one sorta does,he's an egotist.
Trains Dreams nominations all earned,sad about Joel and William snubbed for their wonderful acting duet.
I don't get Frankenstein's craft noms.
Was Cruise's honorarya little premature,apparently he's out of this world in next years Digger.
Question 1 I don't know,it lost steam and couldn't overcome films with acting potential nominees.
Question 2 I do think Sinners loses Best Picture but wins casting.
Question 3 Chalamet's time,if Hawke wins SAG then we have a race,remember Chastain started to be a threat only once SAG honored her,it's not going to be any of the other 3.
Question 4 They just went with films that were in for the top categories,so no surprises except The Secret Agent,this was place to honor casting and not BP.
@ Sad Man
It could have received 18. #justiceforjackandhailee
My questions
Does Kate Hudson pose any threat to Jessie,is the Mescals nub telling for her..
Is Taylor this years supporting actress winner
Can Diane Warren finally do it.
What was the most upsetting snub.
How well will Frankenstein do in the craft categories.
I must say, I thought Sinners was a bit difficult to watch... Very boring and borderline bad. I haven't understood the hype all year long, but to break the all-time record for most nominations is OVERKILL to say the least. Happy for Delroy Lindo, though, and Wunmi, too.
Happy for Amy Madigan, but Weapons should've also been nominated in Makeup, Screenplay, and Picture. I worry about her chances to win at this point.
So so glad Ariana Grande didn't get nominated. I hated the idea of nominating someone back-to-back for the same performance... And it's NOT supporting. Plus, Cynthia and her felt like a package deal. I'm glad Wicked: For Good got nothing. The two-year press cycle left me exhausted, long before it even ended. They got their rewards last year.
Happy for Jacob Elordi.
Sad for Jesse Plemmons.
Fun to see Kate Hudson back again after so long, especially since after all this time, many thought she'd be a one-time nominee.
@ MrRipley79
There is the Rose Byrne of it all. Let's see who takes BAFTA and SAG.
Lol Rose Byrne is not winning for a prickly movie that got one nomination.
This "race" between Buckley and Byrne the internet has made up is funny to me. Jessie Buckley is in one of the biggest contenders and is a previous nominee, too.
I think the most sewn up acting category is definitely Actress.
About the fraud thing - I have a feeling that it hurt Mescal's campaign. Obviously he was nearly nominated, but I think it positioned him as the less interesting lead, so "vote for him if you're passionate about Hamnet all around." He think he's tremendous, and if they'd elevated him as a lead, on the same level as Buckley, he would have taken Hawke's nomination.
I think this is one of the strongest supporting actress lineups of all time (even without either of the Marty ladies.)
And I'm glad to see Secret Agent show up in multiple categories.
It would be really fun if SAG goes to Hudson and BAFTA goes to Byrne.
Happy to see Lindo in Supporting Actor, even though I'm among those finding the film a tad overrated. I'd like to think we're seeing a backlash to category fraud, with only 2 fraud nominees across both supporting categories, but if Skarsgard is gonna start sweeping towards the win, there's probably not a real backlash.
Supporting Actress seems like the category where there's a real race. I see both frontrunners, Teyana and Madigan, as quite vulnerable, and could see any of the other 3 ladies emerging as the winner.
I think maybe there's a backlash against South Korean culture generally, after a decade of ascendancy. I've seen a number of people lamenting South Korea supplanting Japanese culture, which to them seemed more idiosyncratic, for South Korean cultural products that seem too absorptive of Western culture. Unfortunate as I think Park Chan-wook is a very incisive artist.
DK: You are projecting and I find it very offensive!! WICKED: PART 1 was excellent and many agree - the second part is a major dip in quality!!
RE: Paul Mescal, I loved his performance in HAMNET and would take it any day over Sean Penn's in OBAA. As for category fraud, I actually think this is a closer call than it may seem. Maybe I'm influenced by having read the book, but Will Shakespeare really IS supposed to be a supporting character - the protagonist is, unquestionably, Agnes. Hamnet is her story, that was the whole point of it. That said, I concede the film expands the role of WS rather substantially so that he becomes more of a co-lead. But I don't think this is one of the worse examples of category fraud. I mean, hello, Stellan Skarsgaard? Sean Penn again?
Yaaayyy for Ethan Hawke - he was the one prospective nominee I was "worried" about missing. But also sad for Joel Edgerton, who may have given my favorite male lead performance of the year. Also happy for Wagner Moura and everyone in SENTIMENTAL VALUE.
I'm down with all the SINNERS love. Maybe a bit excessive, but it is still my #1 of 2025.
I don't hate F1 getting into the BP lineup, but let's be real, it's a rerun of TOP GUN MAVERICK. It does what it does very well, but TG:M did it first and better.
A little sad but not shocked at the shutout of TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE and NO OTHER CHOICE. I respect the hell out of both movies, but they are both difficult to love, for different reasons.