Oscar nominations at a glance. How'd you do on your predictions?
Monday, January 13, 2020 at 10:25AM by Nathaniel R
Over at the Oscar Nomination Index, you can survey the whole field and see how we did on our predictions. The short answer is NOT GREAT. But want the long answer? If you do click to read more...
We got a little too daring in our Acting predictions since the truth is that Oscar rarely strays from the template set by the Globes and SAG so two criticarl darlings who were iffy given the precursors (Banderas and Nyong'o) got a split result with only one of them making it. But Oscar not getting adventurous is why we stuck with Erivo & Theron in Best Actress despite a lack of passion for those performances out there in the (online) world and why we should have predicted Leonardo DiCaprio all along.
As for director, that fifth spot also went where most people expected it to go but we thought they'd get artier. So now you have the real thing (Martin Scorsese) competing directly against his imitator (Todd Phillips... since Joker is just basically a knock off Taxi Driver/King of Comedy goosed up to also be part of the Batman franchise)
We tend to do very well on Cinematography each year and correctly predicted The Lighthouse. We just picked the wrong film to miss for its placement. The Irishman's nods for Cinematography and Costume Design both feel quite excessive, considering the rich array of options the Academy has but this year is one of those years where lazy voting reigned. We haven't done the research yet but years with FOUR films hitting 8 digit nomination counts we think are fairly rare and Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 1917, and The Irishman all accomplished that this year. So in short they were obsessed with those four films. We think slot five, if we went back to the five nomineees only days is tougher to say. What is in fifth place really: Marriage Story or Jojo Rabbit or Little Women?
We were saved by rioting with Parasite landing in Production Design and Editing but those two categories otherwise feel quite lazy. I dont even dislike Jojo Rabbit the way so much of the internet does but what business does its Wes Andersony stylings have doing in thse categories? Marriage Story would have made a great editing nominee but was nowhere to be found in the visual categories.
It's cute that even though you can't count on the Sound branch to differentiate between Mixing and Editing (their nominations are usually 4/5 or 5/5) you can usually count on them to give one random movie its sole nod. That year that honor goes to Ad Astra and we're delighted because we love that movie and it had no Oscar campaign to speak of. When a movie doesn't have a campaign and shows up you know people who were voting for it actually think of it as "Best" in that category.
Let us not speak of the horrific snubbing of the year's best Original Song ("Glasgow" from Wild Rose) in favor of simple tunes and dross. LET US NOT.
And finally let's hear it for HONEYLAND which is the first film *ever* to score in both Best Documentary and Best International Film simultaneously... though many films before it have tried! Otherwise, true to form, the Documentary Branch ignored the year's biggest doc hit (Apollo 11) so we were perhaps silly to predict it.
And finally, because we like to be totally transparent here, marvel at how poorly we scored on Live-Action Shorts. It's the worst we've ever done in the shorts categories. It's hard to be *that* wrong when you have only 10 finalists to choose from so WHOOPS. We were somewhat redeemed with the 4/5 score in Documentary shorts though.
How'd you do on your predictions? What were you most proud of? Where did you fail spectacularly?
Honeyland, Oscars (19), Punditry
Reader Comments (71)
Current Academy = 68% male, 84% white. Given that, the only real "surprise" this morning is the success of Parasite. Just look at the four nominations leaders.
Nathaniel's comment and the Sigourney erasure. Far too much.
Ryan;
Not a limit to the amount of BS in one post? Like your limit for screentime. 45min is dumb, not only for a long film, but even a 2 hour one. So someone is in less than half of the average film, and they're a lead?
And the Lopez thing...hey, if you wanna feel that way, go ahead.
These noms will blow over by April and you know what Lupita and Collette last year will be talked about by film and horror fans for years to come as some of the best in the genre,Longevity is what's it's all about,awards are fleeting.
So sad for Murtada! I know it's hurtful when your favorite performance is snubbed. She was so magnetic in Hustlers.
Shame Lupita couldn't get in. I haven't bee fully sold on her as some have in the past (her perf in black panther was very bland for instance) but this year? She's better than all the nominees. Shame she got excluded due to it being horror.
ScarJo deserves her nomination for Marriage Story, and I would argue she should win. She doesn't deserve that supporting actress nod, though. That was just lazy.
Frozen II not being there is such a dissapointment.
THE GOOD
Parasite gets all key nods
Banderas!!!
Joker love fest—say what you will about the film (I loved it) but the lead performance and technical craftsmanship is stellar across the board. COSTUMES!!!!
Documentary lineup
THE BAD
No JLo
Scarlett double-dip (she’s deserved a nod but not two)
No Joker in production design
That Original Song lineup
THE UGLY
No Lupita
No Atlantics
No Painted Bird
NATHANIEL - Not even Julianne's Far From Heaven/The Hours year?
Sasha Stone is even worse than Mark Harris, by the way.
Although I thought she deserved a nod, I never ONCE believed JLo was locked. She reminded me of Aniston in 2014; someone not considered ‘a great actress’ who at one point was considered a ‘minor threat’ to the beloved frontrunner, who managed Globe and SAG noms but ends ultimately ends up snubbed. Again, JLo was far more deserving than Aniston but I think a lot of voters just struggled to rank the name JENNIFER LOPEZ higher on a ballot than the names LAURA DERN, KATHY BATES, ANNETTE BENING, NICOLE KIDMAN, etc.
I think there is enough happiness to find in these nominations !!! Look at the bright side folks at least for a minute ;-)
Finally finally these outstanding actors will be Oscar nominated forever: So super happy for Banderas, ScarJo, Pryce (I didn't think he would make it - not showy enough but he was so amazing!) and Hurray and Welcome for new love Pugh !!! and Ervio !
Wow for Little Woman - never thought they would go for it.
And yes - to missed chances of being braver and open up to more variety - but a few year ago we wouldn't have Parasite ranked that high... remember at the age of 92 Oscar is still doing baby steps in his zimmer frame !
I'm also not so sure if I would really like to invite Lopez and Sandler into the circuit (yet) after so many really annoying performances and bad movies (here's to the question what Lopez did wrong in her past life.... lots: Maid in Manhattan, Wedding Planner, Gigli,... besides her amazing music career!) - that said - I'm really unfair as I haven't seen both movies yet ... so I'm very open to change my mind in a heartbeat).
We will have a lot of deserving career winners in between ...
One of my favorite nominations of the morning was Mark Bridges for his deceptively simple costume work on JOKER. Seriously, the cut and shades of those fabrics are genius.
"Nobody should be satisfied that 19 out of 20 acting slots went to white performers. But yearly nominations are a profoundly imperfect snapshot. The Academy that rewarded Spike Lee, Mahershala Ali, and Regina King last year is the same one that bungled its shots this year."
Only a white dude can't write that amount of horseshit in one single tweet
I bet a million dollars that he bragged about his husband
Time to give Noah and Greta his and hers Oscars over their directing snubs!
Can Quentin finally win Best Director?
Could Parasite overcome the racism and get Best Picture? I hope so.
Lupita did not get it because "Us" is not "Get Out" - first hour is brilliant- second hour a bloody mess and the final twist makes no sense
Also Nathaniel what about Fay Bainter surprising and showing that it is possible for a supporting/character actress to have a rare lead success lauded? I think you’ve underthought that comment. Plus as stated previously stated the first double loser had the highest quality two performances: Sigourney. Her supporting wasn’t a waste like Hunter or Thompson (Folks project a lot of their general love for her onto the substance of that performance) a couple years later.
Thompson absolutely deserved that supporting nod. She's so good.
Nathaniel:
Would you not say Sigourney Weaver deserved her 1988 two nods?