9 days till Oscar

Final voting has begun for the Oscars with just 9 days until the big night. Preferential balloting is such that we can dream of crazy outcomes on the big night even though it's fairly clear that 1917 is in the lead amongst the 9 Best Picture contenders. (Have you voted on our "who should win polls yet?If not do so on each Oscar chart) Only Parasite and Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood are well poised to spoil the war film's party if preferential balloting is kind to them.

For those who don't know how preferential balloting works it's a complicated math system which begins rather simply by counting #1 votes until one of the contenders has reached 50.1% of the votes. Since that rarely happens on first pass, #2 votes become important... but only from the ballots that have been discarded by whichever film came in last on the most recent round.  It's a process of elimination whereby the least loved pictures votes are continually reallocated to that movie's biggest fan's next preference until one movie eventually gets half of the voters on its side...

So theoretically -- if the consensus is correct that 1917, Parasite, and Hollywood are way out front and they all get a substantial portion of #1 votes -- what's really going to matter is how high up those three films are on the ballots of the people who loved Ford V Ferrari, Marriage Story, Joker, The Irishman, and Little Women.

If the voting is especially competitive, every ranking will end up mattering (to an extent). If the voting isn't particularly tense and the three frontrunners end up with a huge percentage of #1 votes on the first round then it's probably not ever going to matter what's far down on anyone's ballots since one film will amass 50% quickly.

We didn't poll Team Experience for a mock preferential ballot but it's fairly obvious from the Team Experience Awards that Parasite would have won on a first round so no 2nd place titles would have factored in. But when you have a group as large as the Academy second place votes are going to matter a lot. 

My ballot if I had one...

1. Parasite
2. Marriage Story
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Little Women
5. 1917
6. Ford V Ferrari
7. The Irishman
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Joker

If global box office had a ranked ballot ;)

1. Joker
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Ford V Ferrari
4. 1917
5. Parasite
6. Little Women
7. Jojo Rabbit

Other rankings can be found on the Best Picture Chart

Comments

[PP]

1. The Irishman
2. Parasite
3. Joker
4. Little Women
5. Marriage Story
6. 1917
7. Once upon a time in Hollywood

[Someone]

1. Joker;
2. 1917;
3. The Irishman;
4. Parasite;
5. Jojo Rabbit;
6. Marriage Story;
7. Little Women;
8. Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood;
9. Ford v Ferrari

[Sawyer]

1. Parasite
2. Little Women
3. 1917
4. Ford v. Ferrari
5. Once Upon a Time...
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Marriage Story
8. The Irishman
9. Joker

[Mike in Canada]

1. Parasite
2. Little Women
3. Marriage Story
4. Jojo Rabbit
5. Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
6. 1917
7. The Irishman
8. Joker

Are voters meant to rank things they haven't seen? I mean, I guess putting Ford v Ferrari at the bottom of my list doesn't hurt it any more than not ranking it at all.

[Peggy Sue]

I'm not particularly ashamed of the box office ballot. It's a good ballot.

[Ryan]

1. Parasite
2. Little Women
3. Marriage Story
4. 1917
5. Ford v Ferrari
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
7. The Irishman
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Joker

[Luiserghio]

1. Parasite
2. The Irishman
3. Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood
4. Marriage Story
5. Little Women
6. 1917
7. Joker
8. JoJo Rabbit
9. Ford v Ferrari

Preferential Ballot can be weird sometimes, I'm happy with the first 5, they all are in my Top20 of the year, but after those it starts to be tricky, to be honest, I don't have a strong opinion about 1917, but I respect it, that's why is #6.

Of the last 3, I think FvF is the better movie, but also it is the least ambitious, I would prefer the other 2 to win, even when I don't care about Jojo and really disliked a couple of things of Joker.

I can't be the only person who overthinks it like that.

[Doug]

1. Marriage Story💔
2. Little Women 👸🏼
3. Joker 🤡
4. Parasite 🦠
5. Once Upon a Time ☀️
6. 1917 🧨
7. Jojo Rabbit 😴
8. Haven’t seen FvF because I don’t watch dude-bro car movies 🚫
9,999,682. The Irishman is my hands-down pick for worst movie of all time, overtaking Inception, which held that dubious title for a decade. 🤮

[hcu]

1. Marriage Story
2. The Irishman
3. Parasite
4. Little Women
5. 1917
6. Joker
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8. Ford v. Ferrari
9. Jojo Rabbit

[Greg F]

1. Parasite
2. Marriage Story

These two flip flop for my #1 and 2 spots. Leagues above the rest IMO.

3. Once Upon a Time...
4. Little Women
5. 1917
6. Jojo
7. Irishman
8. Ford v Ferrari

9999999. Joker

[mikenewq]

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time In Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. 1917
5. JoJo Rabbit
6. Joker
7. The Irishman
8. Little Women (didn't see)
9. Ford v Ferrari (didn't see)

[karen silkwood]

Parasite
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Marriage Story
1917
Ford vs Ferrari
Joker
Jojo Rabbit

[Taylor]

1. Parasite
2. Little Women
3. The Irishman
4. Marriage Story
5. 1917
6. Ford v. Ferrari
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8. Joker
9. Jojo Rabbit

[Erick Loggia]

1. Once upon a time...in Hollywood
2. Parasite
3. The Irishman
4. 1917
5. Ford vs Ferrari
6. Marriage Story
7. Little Women
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Joker

[Edwin]

I do think 1917 will win, but I have to believe preferential voting will benefit Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood more. Maybe 1917 will even get the most #1 votes, but I get the sense that if it’s not #1, it seems to fall in the middle of people’s ballots, whereas Parasite and OUATIH both seem to be in a lot of people’s top 3 even if they’re not #1.

Again, I’m still predicting 1917, but the preferential ballot is exactly why I think there’s still at least a chance an upset happens.

[Aquila Henry]

1. Parasite
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. The Irishman
6. 1917
7. Jojo Rabbit
8. Joker
9. Ford v Ferrari

[Someone]

"Joker" is too good for American people. Thank God I live in Europe and have a better taste. :)

[Tom G]

Little Women
Marriage Story
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
1917
Joker
Jojo Rabbit
The Irishman

[Dl]

Someone
Don't you even insinuate that because you like Joker and are European that you are a European with taste. That's an insult to all European cinephiles.

[Zizo Abul Hawa]

1. Parasite
2. Jojo Rabbit
3. Little Women
4. Marriage Story
5. 1917
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
7. Joker
8. The Irishman
9. Ford vs Ferrari

[Matty]

1. The Irishman
2. Parasite
3. 1917
4. Little Women
5. Once
6. Marriage Story
7. FvF
8. JoJo
9. Joker

[brookesboy]

1. Marriage Story
2. Parasite
3. 1917
4. Little Women
5. The Irishman
6. Ford V Ferrari
7. Jojo Rabbit
8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
9. Joker

[Ryan T.]

1. Parasite
2. Little Women
3. Jojo Rabbit
4. 1917
5. Ford v. Ferrari
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
7. Marriage Story
8. The Irishman
9. Joker

[Fadhil]

1. Parasite
2. Marriage Story
3. Once Upon
4. The Irishman
5. Joker
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. 1917
8. Ford v. Ferrari

I have not seen Little Women.

[Bensunce]

1. Parasite
2. Marriage Story
3. 1917
4. Ford v Ferrari
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
6. Little Women
7. The Irishman
8. Jojo Rabbit
9. Joker

[Someone]

"Cahiers du Cinema" likes "Joker" (it was in their top 10 of the year) and who has better taste than they?

Putting "Joker" below "Ford v Ferrari" or "Little Women" is like admitting that you know nothing about cinema. Just saying the obvious. :)

[Working stiff]

1. Parasite
2. Little Women
3. Ford v Ferrari
4. 1917
5. JoJo Rabbit
6. Joker
7. The Irishman
8. Marriage Story
9. Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood