Where are we at in the Oscar race? Screenplays, Directors, Pictures
Wednesday, January 20, 2021 at 1:30PM by Nathaniel R
Looking at the calendar this morning on this blessed Inauguration Day, we realized with great alarm that the SAG, Globe, and Critics Choice nominations are just two weeks away so it's time to update all the Oscar charts again...
BEST PICTURE
What if we only get 7 nominees this year? This is the last year of our 'sliding scale' sort of Oscar competition after which we'll be returning to the 2009 and 2010 system of a clean top ten for Best Picture. Since 2011 when the system was introduced we've always had either 8 or 9 nominees but if you stop to think about it only six films have been dominant in the Best Picture conversation, such as it is: the state of America drama Nomadland, the race drama One Night in Miami, the prestige play adaptation Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, the heartland immigrant family drama Minari, the Old Hollywood ambitions of Mank, and the courtroom dramedy Trial of the Chicago 7. Lately provocative genre flick Promising Young Woman has been rising (though it still feels far outside Oscar's usual comfort zone) while First Cow (also outside Oscar's comfort zone albeit in far less obvious ways) and war veterans drama Da 5 Bloods have been holding steady if not looking like sure things. The fates of the other contenders are a little less clear. The western drama News of the World (which we had earlier predicted would be a strong contender) hasn't generated much conversation. There's still time to turn the latter around but it's looking worrisome. The Black Panthers drama Judas and the Black Messiah and the very well executed stage-to-screen adaptation The Father are obviously both going to try the last minute blitz approach to Oscar nominations which in this case means a big February push. But will that work? It feels risky in this chaotic awards season. Are there any other contenders? Soul, Tenet, and Never Rarely Sometimes Always hope so.
BEST DIRECTOR
If the Best Picture field feels narrowly as if it's only about six movies, Best Director appears even narrower still. Chloe Zhao is all locked up (with an unusual complete sweep of critics prizes) and David Fincher too given more traditional directorial ambitions and scale of not just his film but his whole career. Regina King has a strong foothold in this competition though we've hesitated to consider her locked because films that might best be described as acting showcases are sometimes the first to be dropped by the Director's branch. But beyond those three, doesn't it feel like anything might happen? With Zhao so far out front, that's going to give extra power to any ballots that don't place her first. Which directors will have a large enough pool of votes to place? We're currently predicting that Kelly Reichardt will be the surprise nominee because we've tried to imagine which director has enough devout fans that that could make a wee bit of a difference. We realize we've predicted a shortlist that's majority female and majority directors of color both of which are atypical for Oscar but 2020 was all about disruption of the norm.
CELEBRITY DIRECTOR BONUS POINTS? Fame might be important this year since there's such a distance between Chloe Zhao's critical triumph and every other contender. The Golden Globes in particular could well stock up on a "celebrity directors" field (which they've done before). David Fincher, Spike Lee, Regina King, Paul Greengrass, George C Wolfe, Aaron Sorkin, and even Chris Nolan all might benefit from being "known commodities" in a race that's bursting with so many fresh and lesser known artists like Lee Isaac Chung, Emerald Fennell, Florian Zeller, Shaka King, Eliza Hittman, and even Kelly Reichardt (who is on her 8th film but who has arguably never broken out in the public imagination) who all might eat into each other's "fresh voice" appeal.
BEST SCREENPLAYS
Promising Young Woman and Soul are rising in Original though we wouldn't call them locked. Adapted Screenplay feels much more settled with six very likely possibilities... but who gets left out? We're guessing i'm thinking of ending things which is probably a dumb guess since the Academy loves Kaufman screenplays!
Reader Comments (33)
Just realized Emerald Fennell played Camilla Parker Bowles on "The Crown"! Lol. Would love to see her and Olivia Colman hand out an award at the show together.
I think Sound of Metal needs to be on your picture list outside the top ten (I have it at #11-12), and I still feel like Minari is being overrated everywhere. It hasn't made nearly the splash at critics awards that Sound of Metal, Never Rarely, First Cow, and Promising Young Woman have made, and I feel like it needed that critics push to put it over the top. It feels like 1-2 of those will make the list instead.
I have a feeling that Regina King will do very well with precursors and then be snubbed a-la Bradley Cooper style.
Since I'm not a fan of most of the contenders this year I hope there's less nominees for best picture.
to the extent i've been able to keep my ear to the ground out here in LA, i can't find a person who likes MA RAINEY as a film...the acting yes but the movie not so much. i think NEWS OF THE WORLD will hit in the next week. it's so beautifully made and it's the only kind of expansive, widescreen contender out there...the older academy voters will love it (plus it deserves it). i'd be surprised if FIRST COW can make it. and PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN is hitting at just the right time...that's the title i'm hearing about the most at the moment...really smart to VOD it when they did.
eric B -- interesting.
February 3 & 4, folks: Globes & SAG-AFTRA nods announcements. Two weeks before then to rest, relax and enjoy the new administration...
Right now word on the ground in Los Angeles is that Nomadland better be as good as the critics sweep because almost no one who actually votes has seen it yet...
Promising Young Woman definitely seems to be rising at the right time. Remember when Focus Features got Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread into the Best Picture race? Don't underestimate them!
Ma Rainey is the Best Actor frontrunner so its position in the Best Picture line-up is pretty secure. That's how the Academy rolls - Best Actor = Best Picture nominee more often than not.
I really feel like Spike Lee will get in, and enter into a default-y period in his career. Lindo's momentum has kept the movie in conversation for a long time, and it's got the most universal appeal of any of the candidates.
This might be the first time we have multiple female nominations for best director.
Nathaniel, doesn't seem you see Judas and the Black Messiah making waves, any thoughts you might share about it? I have seen some others who suspect it will be a late disruptor and its virtual screenings at Sundance have sold out.
Parker --i will say more soon but it felt like a solid gritty true story crime drama but I guess I didn't feel it rose above very solid.
It's hard to imagine FIRST COW getting screenplay and director nods and not BP. Guess it could happen.
The only film I've seen on that list was "Mank" which I do not see a Best Picture material
@Jaragon, Hollywood loves movies of itself and this year there aren’t that many contenders. I would be shocked if it was left out. And it was a good film even if it wasn’t perfect.
I can’t see Promising Young Woman making it since it’s not that good (outside of the opening and the acting). But there are few contenders like said so maybe.
Best Director is the most exciting it's ever been, even if the award is all but locked. There are so many deserving female and POC options that the Academy would really embarrass itself if they go with someone like Aaron Sorkin.
@Lucky - I'm so excited as well! Just hope they don't make choices like Todd Phillips over Greta Gerwig this year.
The director's branch hasn't been that friendly toward actors who direct lately. Eastwood wasn't nominated for AMERICAN SNIPER and Ben Affleck was left out of the ARGO nomination slate both in the last dozen years. I think the director's branch figures, rightly, that actors will tend to vote for fellow actors when they make it into the final five, and they resent that. This is why we have "Oscar Winning Director" Mel Gibson, Kevin Cosner, Eastwood X 2, Robert Redford, but no Oscar at all for a lot of important auteur filmmakers. I don't know if this will hurt Regina King, but it could be a factor.
are we all underestimating The White Tiger? it's on Netflix starting Friday, and it's unlike anything else out there. could the timing and the movie strike lightning and fare well?
Ma Raney is not an A+ movie no matter how you look at things, but I will make it. I mean, if Fences did.
Dan -- normally i'd think that was a factor but given how there's been virtually no buzz for directors outside of the "top three" on the chart, i can't see it hurting her.
Eric -- i initially thought it might but then there was virtually no conversations after the first screenings so i doubt it. I felt about it the same way i felt about Judas and the Black messiah in a way. Engaging narratives and solidly made but i dont think anyone would think "Oscar!" outside of them premiiering during the peak of the season.
Kelly Reichardt this year feels sort of like Debra Granik and Leave No Trace - it's such a quiet, unshowy piece of filmmaking, without loud performances or grabby setpieces/cinematography. I think at the end of the day, it's just not the kind of directing the Academy has valued for the better part of a decade at least.
Similarly, they've not been too warm to actor-directors (at least those who aren't prominent writers a la Gerwig/Peele) which has me thinking Regina King won't make it, and instead the Academy will view it as an acting/writing piece.
I think you're right about Sorkin missing - TotC7 has the feel of something like The Martian/Green Book/A Star is Born/Three Billboards, where it's seen as a fairly safe Director nominee despite rather anonymous direction.
I'd keep an eye out for Spike Lee to make the five (highly respected director, a big ambitious, visual movie in a year with a lot of small dramas/play adaptations), Paul Greengrass to sneak in (again, it's a large-scale movie in a year lacking in those, and Director often goes hand in hand with Cinematography), and for the last spot, if it's not Chung I'd honestly guess Emerald Fennell would take it (distinct fresh directorial voice/style, clear writer-director auteur-ship, actor-heavy, hitting at a great time and generating a PASSIONATE response).
Yay Sag and Globe noms soon. And that other waste of words in this piece that you strangely lump in with them.
I think Promising Young Woman is in for Picture. The people that love it LOVE it enough to get the required #1 vote percentage.
I am going to sound weird but I would love a Da 5 Bloods sweep.
Oh see, I feel like Zeller is much stronger in the same way that relatively unknown European directors of ROOM and IMITATION GAME got in for relatively low key dramas with lauded central nominated performances.
I will be really surprised if Regina King makes it. The directors' branch has been very clubby, especially in the past 10 years or so. They snubbed not only Bradley Cooper but Ben Affleck as well, and their films arguably felt less anonymous than One Night in Miami. It's also pretty rare for someone to be nominated for a debut film (though I guess she's directed other films before, just films that aren't narrative theatrical films? but I think she'll be considered a debut director).
I agree that Promising Young Woman is rising fast and will have a lot of passion votes. And Chicago 7 feels the most like a consensus choice even though most online film fans don't like it.
watched Promising Young Woman two days ago and LOVED IT!
the film is fast & furious, very entertaining, practically never boring, and it absolutely moved me; my jaw dropped quite often
Carey Mulligan consistently leaves Rooney Mara and Keira Knightley in the dust with her superior choices.
With the exception of 4 films (Brothers, The Greatest, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, The Great Gatsby), all of her movies are GREEN on Metacritic. No other actress has that. Not even Tilda Swinton. Also, unlike Tilda, Mulligan mostly has actual leading roles.
I would love to see Frederick Wiseman nominated for Best Director for “City Hall”.
A legendary director, one of America’s best for decades, turns his eye to the patience and hard work needed to maintain a democracy.
I think Minari, First Cow, Never Really Sometimes Always, and their fellow indies look pretty good right now because they're critical darlings in a year where there really hasn't been much to talk about. They've hogged most of the conversation, but this vacuum won't last forever, with several heavy hitters and traditional Oscar bait trying to lay low or even waiting in the wings.
There's always some component of seeing what work championed by critics will translate to industry-led awards body success and I suspect that this will be more pronounced this year once the campaigning from the heavy hitters kicks in. For this reason, my predictions look very similar to what they would have been months ago-- I think we're in a lull before the real race and when that race starts, the Minaris/First Cows/NRSAs of the world get knocked down a peg or seven.
Picture: Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Mank, One Night in Miami, The Father, Da 5 Bloods, Minari, with Judas and the Black Messiah or News of the World as possible add-ons
Director: Chloe Zhao and David Fincher (who, despite the mediocre reception of that film, I still think has a chance at a win given who he is and how atypical a contender Zhao is as the frontrunner), and then some combo of three from the second row of your chart-- Aaron Sorkin, Spike Lee, Florian Zeller?
Great predictions, Nathaniel. I think the current state of the Oscar race is exactly this. Personally, I was disappointed with some of the films mentioned. Mank is limited to paying homage to the industry. But he doesn't talk to anyone else. My disappointment with Ma Rainey was even greater, as I had high expectations. I think that with each adaptation of theater plays I realize the same result: filmmakers cannot make the transition from theatrical to cinematographic language. Of course, it is not necessary to deny the theatrical origin of the material, but it would be good if a work of adaptation for the cinema was made that would bring more fluidity to the story. And I don't see filmmakers doing that, because the awards have been welcoming these films. So, why change? In Ma Rainey I was disappointed even with Viola Davis, a great actress that I love, but that here was a casting error and a great actress stuck in questionable creative decisions (ah .. the voice acting) and characterization of bad costumes and makeup. I don't understand why she is making everyone's TOP 5. Davis deserved much more nomination for "The Widows".
Watch out for "One Night in Miami." It's the kind of consensus film that can win best picture. In this protest year of 2020, it encapsulates racial struggle and progress in a distant past sort of way that Academy voters might deem more "acceptable" than a militant film like "Judas and the Black Messiah." I also think many voters are gonna wonder what the fuss is all about with "Nomadland." If I've learned any lessons from decades of Oscar watching, it's that you never want to be the frontrunner this early in the Oscar season. More often than not, you're ripe for a fall from grace and inevitable loss to the upstart or underdog.
" I think that with each adaptation of theater plays I realize the same result: filmmakers cannot make the transition from theatrical to cinematographic language. "
Wait until you see THE FATHER.