Will Smith is the Best Actor frontrunner. But who else is coming to that party?
Tuesday, November 16, 2021 at 10:00PM by Nathaniel R
While the Best Supporting Actress race, discussed yesterday (and chart updated), is a little fuzzy and possibly volatile with major performances still left to screen, Best Actor is feeling more or less concrete in terms of available possibilities. Mind you, the cement is still wet.
THE FRONTRUNNERS
Two time nominee Will Smith (King Richard) and one-time nominee Benedict Cumberbatch (Power of the Dog) have the early lead. Both films are widely screened and well liked and both roles are actorly showcases. Major stardom does a lot of footwork in building Oscar traction; they both have that advantage, too. But who will join them?
PROBABLY?
The Academy isn't overly fond of men leading musicals. The last winner in this regard was Rex Harrison for My Fair Lady fifty-seven years ago and, despite the surge of musical fare in the last two decades, only three leading men have received nominations: Johnny Depp for Sweeney Todd, Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables, and Ryan Gosling for La La Land. None of them had any real "winning" heat. Despite Oscar's indifference to men in this genre we think Andrew Garfield has a great shot for his impassioned turn in tick, tick... BOOM!
It will probably help that he's playing a real life person since Oscar loves biopics literally more than they love anything else. They're pretty kind to men (and women) in music films that aren't exactly musicals, too, even if the actor doesn't sing at all (see Rami Malek over Bradley Cooper - argh!) so maybe they'll confuse this musical with one of those, since it's both a biopic and a musical and he's playing a composer?
We also think Denzel Washington is likely for The Tragedy of Macbeth even if it's hard to get a bead on whether or not that will perform in a major way come Oscar time. The Academy loves Denzel (to the tune of 8 acting nominations and 2 wins) so basically as long as he's actually trying on screen, and not coasting through a mainstream thriller/actioner with gun in hand, they nominate him.
A BLOODBATH FOR THAT FINAL SPOT
That's four already so there's one spot up for grabs. We think there are five men looking lustfully at that final slot. The earliest one out of the gate will be Joaquin Phoenix for C'mon C'mon but that's a "soft" effortless role and they've only nominated him for harder full-tics performances. The other four are all opening in mid to late December so they'll be battling for in-the-moment attention with Denzel Washington as well as with each other for media coverage. Bradley Cooper could factor in for Nightmare Alley since he's an Oscar favourite who hasn't yet won but it's probably worth noting that Tyrone Power wasn't nominated for this (great) role back in the day even though he was a major star doing his all time best screenwork; not that Oscar ever liked Ty so it's not an exactly accurate comparison. Oscar voters also enjoy/know Javier Bardem who is doing Desi Arnaz Jr in Being the Ricardos. That film, which just started screening a few days ago (we're seeing it tonight!) has received some early gushing but early gushing is not the same thing as sustained gushing. Will it be his & hers nominations for that film or will it end up as an episode of This Had Oscar Buzz?
All three of those men are possibilities but at this writing we think the fifth slot will come down to either Peter Dinklage for Cyrano or Clifton Collins Jr for Jockey. We're still betting that Dinklage has the edge given that it's a classic awards-magnet role but they both have pros and cons. Dinklage has stardom and other industry hardware in his favor as well as an easy-to-love movie. But the studio MGM/UA has an unusually full slate so will they really push this one as hard as it can be pushed? It feels like the movie should have more traction already in other categories but few are discussing it. Sony Pictures Classics is better at Oscar campaigning (in general) and Collins Jr has a great narrative as a character actor finally getting a showcase and people like the film too (it just won AFI). He's been on the festival and awards circuit promoting it. We know that shaking hands and kissing babies (to use gross political cliches) helps so we'll see.
LONGSHOTS
If he weren't a little child, or if he were as good as say, Woody Norman in C'mon C'mon, (best child performance of the year, hands down) we'd think that Jude Hill might have a shot for Belfast. But Oscar rarely goes for child performances outside of the actress categories.
If the Globes were actually happening this year, we'd suggest that Simon Rex wouldn't be such an extreme longshot for his perfect casting and motormouthed comic turn in Red Rocket. But without that very high profile competition... well, unfortunately any comedy or musical-leaning films will likely have more trouble building traction in this first year without the Golden Globes since the only major awards body that ever took that kind of film seriously. (This may also hamper Andrew Garfield a bit since he could have easily won attention as a probable Globe winner)
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza), Nicolas Cage (Pig) and Oscar Isaac (Card Counter) could all really benefit from top ten lists, random precursor shout-outs, and critics prizes. But Mahershala Ali and Udo Kier (both in different films named Swan Song, for extra confusion!) will surely have to make do with strong reviews for their leading performances.
UPDATED CHARTS
best actor
best supporting actress
UP NEXT: BEST ACTRESS
Reader Comments (18)
the golden globes are happening, just not televised. i’m sure the nominees/winners will find ways to exploit those accolades
Dev Patel for The Green Knight, Vincent London for Titane, and Adam Driver for Annette should be considered
Thoughts on whether Lindon should be Supporting? He certainly takes on a major role when he arrives, but he shows up late in the film. Either way, fantastic performance.
Denzel is one of my favorite actors but I'm lost on why he seems like a shoe in for a Shakespeare adaptation, which I admittedly haven't seen. It may sound like a typical Oscar result, but the last time an actor was nominated for playing in a Shakespeare adaptation was the 80s (for Kenneth Branagh, a likely nominee this year in Director). If this isn't the definitive version of MacBeth, in a competitive Actor year (so much more than Actress, which I don't usually find true), I'm not sold on him getting in.
Cooper is the person in a late breaking film i'm thinking could get a nod,he's done it twice before and if that happens Will has real competition.
I think Denzel is a bit iffy.
Would like to see Collins Jr in.
Everyone seems high on Cyrano but there's very little buzz.
This definitely feels like Will Smith's Oscar to lose.
I hope Andrew Garfield gets the nomination but I am very doubtful. Will Tick Tick Boom be a best picture contender? Best actor is so correlated with best picture.
Not that I think or want him to be nominated; I think he has been nominated enough; is Leonardo DiCaprio not a contender at all? Are you low on the movie's chance?
I do not think there'll be TWO men nominated for Actor coming from musicals. With that being said, who gets left off? Too early to tell.
Excited for your Best Actress predictions Nathaniel. For me the race boils down to these six women : Cruz, Colman, Chastain, Gaga, Kidman, and Stewart - with Zeglar, Mara, and Bullock still to come. If it is indeed the top 6 I mentioned who gets omitted? My fear is that it is Chastain. An early frontrunner who is eventually pushed out by late breaking contenders - it's happened many times before. Just ask Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler), Sigourney Weaver (The Ice Storm), etc.
Very skeptical about Andrew Garfield's chances just based on the genre and role and his young age.
Cash -- well he's not young at all for Oscar (38) but the role is 'youthful' so i get it.
I’m already sensing Will Smith probably won’t win a lot of critic’s prizes. Am I correct in assuming this performance will be more popular with the industry than critics? If he stays the frontrunner, it seems like it’ll be because of SAG and to a lesser extent the Golden Globes awarding him. I’m not expecting the critics organizations to rally behind him, but we’ll see.
Edwin -- normally i'd agree with you but i dont see a critical frontrunner really. has anyone laid claim to that prize in best actor? cumberbatch feels divisive, cage/rex/ feels like a niche choice, so i assume Smith could lay claim to as many of them as say Dinklage, Washington, Garfield, or whomever
Saw Macbeth last night, and while there is much to be admire about the film (with its echoes of Olivier's Hamlet) it's not going to get either of its leads a fourth Oscar. Nominations are possible (prestige, default) but not certain, especially in that crowded Best Actress field. Denzel goes from Macbeth to Lear in his portrayal, which...YMMV. McDormand is playing slightly against type, which I appreciated. The real question is Kathryn Hunter in Supporting. She changes the frequency of the movie every time she appears. Fascinating, appropriately eerie performance.
Shouldn't Jeff Bridges have been counted as the lead in a musical? Cooper was.
Also , it should be 7 contenders not 6. I forgot about McDormand.
If Smith wins it will be because he's a big star, more-or-less respected, and Hollywood (with a few notable exceptions) likes to give big stars an Oscar. Call it the "it-doesn't-seem-right-that-Cary-Grant-and-Peter-O'Toole-never-won-an-Oscar" issue. So when a Julia Roberts, Jeff Bridges, or Michael Douglas are respectable enough in a film that the case can be made for a win the star wins. This requires that there not be some undeniable performance that people feel just shouldn't be denied, like Forest Whitaker or, I suppose, Olivia Coleman. In short, if no one emerges as a must-win, the star will get it. Of course, tell that to Nick Nolte, who lost to Roberto Benigni. But that was a tragic case of two almost equally deserving co-front runners (Nolte and Ian McKellen) splitting the vote. What a sad year that was. That and the CRASH over BBM are the two years I basically screamed in rage at my TV.
I'd love Garfield to get in, but that does feel like a fourth/fifth possibility rather than a top three to me (but then I haven't seen MACBETH; still, as you say, they love Denzel and even nominated him for ROMAN ISRAEL so i can't picture him missing).
As for Clifton Collins Jr, I like him a lot but JOCKEY is a movie that is allergic to drama. Every time it feels like it is about to break out from its shell, it recoils. Still, they've gone with the likes of Jenkins in THE VISITOR so maybe that won't be quite as big of a hurdle.
I also think Garfield will have a tough time getting nominated. His film doesn't seem to be a high priority for Netflix, so I doubt they'll campaign him much. This definitely could be a year like 2013, where several Best Actor nominees come from late-breaking films (including Cooper and DiCaprio, who's more likely, just given his reputation and his film's profile, than any in your 9-15).
Just saw King Richard.
Will Smith has undeniable star-power and charisma. But his acting range? It's not really there, is it?