Final Oscar Nom Predix Pt 1: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Visuals, Sound
Friday, March 12, 2021 at 7:31PM 
As many have remarked, the 2020... excuse us 2020 plus the first two months of 2021 film year has been unpredictable and chaotic in film awards. The pandemic affected the race in virtually every way (a different eligibility period, a different set of films with many delaying their arrival a full year, all virtual campaigning and no red carpets, etcetera). We could have done without the pandemic of course but we love a messy Oscar race. It makes punditry very difficult but also way more fun. And it's also more generous to artists because messiness spreads the wealth around and the wealth should always be spread. There is so little point in 35+ awards bodies if they're all in lockstep agreement.
Just about the only thing that's been "consensus" from the first few moments of the season to the very last (to date) via the BAFTA nominations is that (generally speaking) everyone is moved by Minari, laughs along with Maria Bakalova in Borat, and is deeply impressed with Nomadland but especially its trailblazing writer/director/editor/producer Chloe Zhao. New consensuses (concensi?) began to emerge late in precursor season around one additional thing: Daniel Kaluuya for Best Supporting Actor in Judas and the Black Messiah in which he has the leading role of the titular Black Messiah...
Side note: It's very easy to become the frontrunner in supporting if people accept your category fraud campaign (see also Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl and Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood) though it always leaves us wondering who might have been the favourite for the supporting prize among supporting thespians without the star-blocking.
Let's start with Best Picture because that race affects almost every race down the line. It's the trickle-down effect only the real version and not right-wing fantasy.
BEST PICTURE
This is the final year of the sliding scale number of Picture nominees. Since 2011 under current voting rules anywhere number between five and ten Best Picture nominations is mathematically possible. In the nine years of this system we have only ever experienced 8 or 9 Best Picture nominees despite the possibility of 5,6,7 or 10 being named. Next year to honor the 2021 film year (which will be only 10 months long if they revert to the traditional calendar) it will change back to a complete top ten that we only experienced for two cinematic seasons, 2009 and 2010.
If we return to the old belief (in the five-wide Best Picture system) that the DGA is the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture nominations than these would have been your Best Picture lineup even without a Best Picture expansion.
- MANK (Netflix)
- MINARI (A24)
- NOMADLAND (Searchlight)
- PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (Focus)
- TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 (Netflix)
That actually sounds about right to us given enduring buzz and precursor favor...
- ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI (Amazon)
- MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM (Netflix)
Though we think Promising Young Woman might have fallen off (in the old days of 5 wide fields) becaus its such an atypical genre mix for the Academy (they aren't crazy about thrillers, satires, romcoms, or feminist fables and isn't it an inventive mix of all of those?). Surely One Night in Miami and Ma Rainey will also be nominated? After that it gets MUCH more confusing.
Who is in 8th and 9th and 10th place? It's anyone's guess. DA FIVE BLOODS started strong but faded after a dismal showings at precursors, JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH started as nonexistent but is now a possibly huge player and recency bias is real, NEWS OF THE WORLD and THE FATHER, have been consistently on the cusp and both have considerable traditionalist appeal for reasons of expert craftsmanship and being strong examples of typically beloved genres (westerns, family ilness dramas). Meanwhile SOUND OF METAL has been a stealth hopeful, slowing gathering a possibly large fanbase. (We think BORAT SUBSEQUET MOVIEFILM is a fantasy even if the PGA loved it, and early hopefuls like FIRST COW, NEVER RARELY SOMETHING ALWAYS, and SOUL just won't be able to gather enough votes.)
We've been thinking for a long time that The Father and News of the World were both going to show up much more strongly with Oscar than they had with the precursors but we have to admit that Judas and The Black Messiah and Sound of Metal now feel like the true wildcards for Monday morning. It's easy to picture as low as 2 nominations for each of the latter two films and as high as 7. But which will it be?
Gulp so we're going to go with...
- if 8 nominees then... THE FATHER
- if 9 nominees then... JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
- if 10 nominees then... SOUND OF METAL
alt. News of the World
BEST DIRECTOR
Naturally Best Director is also confusing. Or, alternately, maybe it's simple? The DGA rarely matches Oscar 5/5 and the Academy's much smaller directing branch is less obsessed with mainstream success and they're also sometimes stingy with "acting" movies which theoretically makes both Aaron Sorkin and Lee Isaac Chung vulnerable... but to whom? Marder (Sound of...), Zeller (The Father), and King (Judas...) haven't made much headway at least visibly. On the other nothing is truly "visible" this year during the pandemic. Thomas Vinterberg's recent BAFTA nomination is interesting and we always wondered why Another Round wasn't cactching on in otther categories outside of Best International Feature since it's frankly awesome. So he could surprise. Spike Lee seemed like a good bet for career honors months ago but his film (Da 5 Bloods) hasn't been factoring in and technically the Academy already gave him those career honors recently with both an Honorary Oscar and a Screenplay Oscar. And if Regina King (Miami) couldn't make it with the mainsream DGA than Oscar's more elitists directors branch -- who has resisted honoring actor/directors lately (see Bradley Cooper and Ben Affleck) is unlikely to stump for her. So who is it going to be?
- ZHAO (lockiest of locks)
- FINCHER (lock?)
- FENNELL (probably)
- CHUNG (probably)
- SORKIN (probably. sigh)
alt. Vinterberg, Zeller
As you know we've had a hard time imagining that the Academy's more elitist director's branch would go for Sorkin BUT the competition for that fifth slot between less precursor successful and more artful options is so overflowing with acclaimed riches -- Greengrass, Reichardt, Vinterberg, King (Regina), King (Shaka), Lee, Zeller, Marder -- that in the end we're banking on them all getting in each other's way and Sorkin slipping in after all resulting in a rare 5/5 match from the DGA.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- CHICAGO 7 (locked up)
- PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (locked up)
- MINARI (locked up)
- MANK (probably)
- JUDAS AND... (still rising)
alt. Sound of Metal, Another Round
There are two available slots and it's clearly a major three-way war between MANK, SOUND OF METAL, and JUDAS, with the outside possibility that critical darling NEVER RARELY SOMETIMES ALWAYS, foreign but accessible ANOTHER ROUND, or WGA nominee PALM SPRINGS surprise. We'd drop Mank due to fading heat except that it's about a writer and about writing movies and we think that'll produce enough affection to put it offer. So let's say Judas's big speechifying outweigh Metal's less articulate struggling musician trials (even though we far prefer the latter screenplay).
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- NOMADLAND (locked up)
- ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI (locked up)
- THE FATHER (locked up)
- MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM (locked up)
- FIRST COW ???? (wild no guts / no glory guess)
alt. Borat, White Tiger
Adapted is less confusing since there appears to be only one open spot. BORAT, FIRST COW, NEWS OF THE WORLD, THE WHITE TIGER, THE MAURITANIAN and I'M THINKING OF ENDING THINGS all received some precursor play, however minor. Ending Things and The White Tiger feel like "most writing" which could definitely help them. News of the World has Best Picture heat but it doesn't truly come across as a writing showcase with all those golden vistas and quiet spells on its road trip. Borat was previously nominated in this category but a second nom feels unlikely however successful the movie has been. Flip of the coin and we're going out on a limb for 'no guts no glory' choice. Let's say that in the wild vote spread between all of these contenders, First Cow scores a surprise nomination, the first Kelly Reichardt film to ever be nominated at the Oscars.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
- MANK (locked up)
- NOMADLAND (locked up)
- NEWS OF THE WORLD (probably)
- JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH (based on the late surge)
- GUNDA (no guts no glory crazy pick!)
alt. Trial of th Chicago 7, Cherry -- risking it saying both ASC nominations are out.
The ASC exploded notions of what might be in play in this category by honoring CHERRY and TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7. What this says to us is that it's an open race and not necessarily that those two films will be honored. I'm resisting believing that CHICAGO 7 makes it but best picture strength is sometimes enough.
JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH could clearly benefit from the late surge (and the brilliant Sean Bobbitt has never been nominated) or TENET could benefit because the Cinematography branch likes Christopher Nolan films. CHERRY could make it across the finish line for the also never nominated Newton Thomas Sigel... though we think that might be complicated by the fact that he's also in the running for DA FIVE BLOODS. Christopher Blauvelt had a good year with EMMA. and FIRST COW but it's hard to see either of them making it. So we've decided to go way wayyyy wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy out on a limb -- the furthest we've ever gone really -- and predict GUNDA that pig documentary. No documentary has been nominated for cinematography in the past 50 years (that we know of - correct us if we're wrong please) but Paul Thomas Anderson called it "pure cinema" and it is also technically an ASC nominee (albeit in Documentary Feature) and we want real bonafide bragging rights if this insane prediction comes true.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
- MANK (locked up)
- NEWS OF THE WORLD (probably)
- MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM (maybe?)
- EMMA (surprise that's not surprising)
- BIRDS OF PREY (surprise!)
alt. Mulan, Midnight Sky
The ADG ignored Emma which surprised us though we could still see it making Oscar's list. The ADG did honor Birds of Prey and as we've noted before the Academy voters are regularly interested in Batman related films even though they're not interested in the superhero genre in general and this is an offshoot that people liked alot in the spring. Plus K.K. Barrett is a previous nominee (for the futuristic designs of Her). And honestly the best picture hopefuls don't feel strong here for the most part which could make this a surprisingly random grab bag of movies. Other possibilities that are a bit more Oscar-friendly than Birds of Prey or Emma (given its lack of an ADG nominatin): TENET, MULAN, MIDNIGHT SKY. We don't understand why the inventive designs of THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD haven't made that a lock in this category but you can't win them all.
BEST FILM EDITING
- MANK
- NOMADLAND
- PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
- SOUND OF METAL
- TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO
alt. Minari & The Father
The Ace Eddie awards honored those five above plus I CARE A LOT, ON THE ROCKS, BORAT, PALM SPRINGS, and MINARI. In a surprise they ignored NEWS OF THE WORLD (William Goldenberg is the editor in the running this year with the most previous Oscar nominations so that's.... interesting). No nomination for ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI was also a surprise. Given the clues from the ACE these our our predictions now though it breaks our heart to leave out the very deserving THE FATHER.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
- LOVE AND MONSTERS
- MIDNIGHT SKY
- MULAN
- TENET
- WELCOME TO CHECHNYA
alternates in this order: Birds of Prey, Mank, Soul, One and Only Ivan, Bloodshot
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
- BIRDS OF PREY
- EMMA
- HILLBILLY ELEGY
- MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM
- PINOCCHIO
alternates in this order: Jingle Jangle, Mank, One Night in Miami, The Little Things, The Glorias
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
- MIDNIGHT SKY
- MINARI
- NEWS OF THE WORLD
- SOUL
- TRIAL OF CHICAGO 7
alternates: Tenet, Mank
Maybe it's foolish to bet against Mank and Tenet... is this just our wishful thinking for Minari?
BEST SOUND
- MANK
- NEWS OF THE WORLD
- NOMADLAND (which will be posthuous due to recent efforst. very sad for that close-knit team)
- SOUND OF METAL
- TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
alternates: Tenet and Ma Rainey's Black Bottom also feel like major threats.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
- ALL IN "Turntables"
- EUROVISION "Husavik"
- JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH "Fight For You"
- THE LIFE HEAD "Io Si (Seen)"
- ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI "Speak Now"
alternates: Jingle Jangle "Make it Work", Sound of Metal "Green", Minari "Rain Song"
Though I'll admit I'm quite worried that Eurovision won't make it even though that song should obviously win.
CLICK FOR PART TWO - ACTING, DOC & ANIMATED FEATURES AND MORE
Reader Comments (24)
I think Reznor & Ross will pull off the double nod, and Sound of Metal is actually in the number 7 or 8 slot among the Best Picture hopefuls.
(Also tomorrow: International?)
nathaniel, always so fun to read your pics and rationale.
i love that you're going out on a limb with GUNDA. nobody would have predicted NEVER LOOK AWAY two years ago, and the cinematographers often thankfully throw in a wild card. i'm thinking it may be MINARI.
months later, i STILL haven't talked to a single person who loves MA RAINEY. i still think it's gonna miss Picture and Screenplay, both of which may go to THE MAURITANIAN. i actually liked MA RAINEY just fine, but i can't find another person who thought it was anything more than homework. does it really have that many passion votes?
Best documentary feature is driving me crazy.
I believe that if this was still a 5-wide Best Picture field, there would be a perfect 5/5 match in Pic and Director. Seems like one of those rare years it happens (oddly, the last time it was a 5-wide field in 2008, it was a 5/5 match).
Also agree that Ma Rainey is losing steam. I don't have it in Adapted Screenplay anymore (the big complaint was that it didn't translate to screen effectively), so I've swapped in Borat. I agree with Reichardt getting in here.
@ EricB, most people I've talked movies with this past year prefer Ma Rainey to Mank and are quite passionate about it, especially Boseman's performance. So the love is there. It wouldn't make my top 5 (which include Promising Young Woman, Judas and the Black Messiah, His House, Sound of Metal, The Mauritanian, The Dig, The 40-Year-Old Version), but such is life.
Top 10, that is.
Understanding how soft racism works, I'm guessing a lot of voters will say two majority Black-cast films up for best picture is good enough, thanks, and that JUDAS won't make it in unless there's a full slate of ten nominees picked. It might also knock out ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI as one of two finalist Black films. I'm hoping for ten choices and that all three of these fine films make it in.
Congratulations Glenn Close.
Nathaniel, I don't think Borat is a "dream" at all. It's the wild car. The industry has clearly supported it in precursors across the board, against all odds... you forget the political component of it.
The nomination for Picture (and in other categories, Bakalova aside) depends on how many members of the industry want to reward SBC for being so vocal and activist against Trump (or simply piss off the MAGA crowd). It's not only the PGA that Borat won... it's been LOVED by the Globes, got the WGA and many other guilds including the key Eddie nom. Will it translate to Best Picture? I don't know. But certainly it wouldn't shock me by any means... and it shouldn't shock you either.
Wow. Liking Ma Rainey over Mank ? That's some serious bad taste there.
It's great that the Academy is going to include black films, but why Ma Rainey and One Night over Judas ?
Jesus, it's a wilder card than you think. Common opinion is it's less likely than you consider. Just label it as a hunch not some extra reaching on the facts and you'll be good babes.
I dreamed of the Close coronation but not like this. Not this. :( Damn monkey paw wishes.
I have this gut feeling that Vinterberg will put a Pawlikowski next Monday, which is going to be the surprise of the day.
@Chez
I would be saying something similar of Hillbilly Elegy if it had been loved by so many precursors, just changing that the MAGA crowd and the most conservative side of the AMPAS would embrace it. I wouldn't be actually shocked by HE making it into Best Picture (along Adams, Close, Screenplay and Make Up) either. The narrative is there, and the analysis clearly would have favored it, before the expansion for diversity... with so many foreign new members, I think it won't be hitting that many #1 votes or even top 5, to score the nom.
On the other hand, Borat offers a devilishly funny payback chance to Trump for the last 4 years, he would have to reach his anti-acid right away after the media being flooded with Borat is up for Best Picture news, and the snapshot of Giuliani with Bakalova in the background.
Remember, 21 years ago, they DID nominate the South Park pranksters with Blame Canada. They can really be this playful, when they want.
I know I am in the minority, and I really enjoyed the Borat sequel, but to me it has been the most baffling awards run this pandemic season. Thought it was hilarious but never thought of Oscar at all all.
Sadly thinking Trial of the Chicago 7 for best pic and they award Nomadland in director category, even though I want Nomadland to win both. Just seems like an Oscar thing to do.
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan
Best sup. Actress: Glenn Close ( think narrative alone will push out any other reasons)
Best sup. Actor: Daniel Kaluuya( though clearly Lead for me)
Jamie is the most logical in predicting. Narrative and just the mood in the room has Close guaranteed the win. It’s strange that bitter betties can’t see that, but being good at Oscar predicting isn’t a strength of a lot of the readership here.
by the way... just saw Minari. Excellent film, I don't think it is a masterpiece. Won't mind watching it being nominated or even winning the Oscar. Would love to see Youn nominated, even win if Bakalova gets snubbed... because honestly, as great as it is, Youn's performance isn't really that demanding of an Award or earth-shattering, and the character arch is virtually non-existent beyond the fact that things that happen to her, the character doesn't really evolve at all.
Is there much passion for MANK? Could it be receive the most nominations WITHOUT a Best Picture nod? As far as I can tell, it’s happened twice before, though eons ago: THE THIEF OF BAGDAD (1940) and THE BAD AND THE BEAUTIFUL (1952). But, hey, it’s a weird year.
Also, I’d like to take credit for calling one surprising snub: Aaron Sorkin for Original Screenplay. They’ve snubbed him in the past (A FEW GOOD MEN, THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT) and there are so many worthier nominees this year.
@DMF: I hope Mank does get passed over for a BP nod. Did anybody really like it that much? Can anyone tell me why it even needed to be made? It was beautifully put together but I honestly didn't care whatsoever about anyone in it - and I'm a Citizen Kane fan!
I feel almost as apathetic towards The Trial of the Chicago Seven, but at least it was entertaining. However, if Sorkin gets a BD nod I'll be a little crabby about it.
Crazy how we first noticed Kaluuya as a scene partner to Emily Blunt in Sicario and now he is getting his Oscar before Emily even got her first nom.
After having seen most of the contenders...
I'd be in shock if Minari or Chicago 7 don't upset Nomadland at Best Picture. Nomadland winning would be an anomaly even bigger than Moonlight defeating La La Land.
There is a simple reason when you consider each film's subtext.
Nomadland isn't exactly positive overall. It sides with the people that our society sides outside of their way and exploits without any kind of remorse.At the end (SPOILER) the film is an allegory on grief and coming to terms with the fact that life goes on and letting go (oddly enough, this year is heavy on this subtext, also seen in WandaVision and Wonder Woman 1984, with way different results)
The Trial of Chicago 7 might be the most baity (in the surface) of the 3. It's easy to like it, difficult to hate it... the overall subtext is less political than it seems, and basically isn't exploring enough the complexity of the situation, falling into the easy resource of recreating the showy moments into a caricature of a villain (Langella). Plenty of fireworks and the appearance of activism, but in the end, is the mainstream version of what it could/should have been.
Minari is the film EVERYONE loves. It manages to be cute and it's smart enough to hide its true meaning from the surface and lays its eggs in the subconscious of the (american) audiences. Don't get me wrong, it is a truly great film but I have problems with its political agenda and I don't think it's "innocent" in the slightest way... the whole film is a propaganda baity version of the american dream and the inclusion of Youn's character serves as an allegory of tradition... yes, it's nice to have heritage when you move to America but remember, if you let your heritage be a strong part of your life, it may destroy your dream (the fire). If Chung isn't aware of what he did in the film, he maybe should think twice about constructing the obvious allegories - for a better, friendlier version of this, check out Ang Lee's masterpiece, "The Wedding Banquet".
Who should win: Nomadland
Who will win: Minari, maybe The Trial of the Chicago 7 (but I doubt it).
Considering the strengths of four distinct African American-themed films by black directors this season, if there isn't a single black nominee in the Director category.... I'll be kind of sad.
I'm kind of sad.