Final Oscar Nom Predix Pt 2: Acting, International, Docs, Shorts, etc...

Previously: Best Picture and Visuals

We really wish we'd started these final predictions earlier but there is no end to the overthinking one can do -- is there? -- when races are tight.  So perhaps it's for the best that we just have to do this and commit. For instance, we've already changed one prediction in both Cinematography (out: Chicago 7, in: Judas) & Sound (out: Tenet, in: Nomadland) to riskier options since last night -- which is probably foolish  but we're living recklessly! Okay, on to complete the final predictions (index of all of them here) with discussions of the acting categories, short categories, documentary, animated, and international features after the jump...

Night of Kings

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
While the precursors were weirdly repetitive in a way they usually aren't in this category with unexpected players Guatemala's La Llorona and France's Two of Us  and the ineglible Bacurau from Brazil popping up repeatedly ... neither of the former two felt like slam dunks when they were selected for submission. We only feel confident and would only be shocked if the following two pictures are left out...

• ANOTHER ROUND (Denmark)
• QUO VADIS AIDA? (Bosnia & Herzegovina)

The former has mainstream popularity, the EFA win and well loved men behind and in front of the camera and the latter has the right amount of heft and people wanting it to win after they screen it. From there it gets much trickier and really any combo of three more from the 15 finalists will end up believable with the benefit of hindsight on Monday. Czech Republic's Charlatan is from a previous nominee, Norway's Hope is emotionally potent and stars a beloved actor, Taiwan's A Sun is a bit divisive but Oscar does like a family epic, Tunisia's The Man Who Sold His Skin and Iran's Sun Children have their fans. But we're going to predict...

• COLLECTIVE (Romania)
• DEAR COMRADES! (Russia) 
• NIGHT OF KINGS (Ivory Coast)

alt. Two of Us (France), I'm Not Here (Mexico), La Llorona (Guatemala)

It's a bit of a risk because Two of Us has so much precursor support and I'm Not Here has big names promoting it and a DGA nomination for first feature. But you have to make predictions and something risky is bound to come up. 

Just about the only movies that would surprise us as nominees in this category are Chile's The Mole Agent (lovely but it's tough to think that two docs would be able to land nods and Collective has more buzz), and Hong Kong's Better Days because it's so adolescence-oriented (not an Oscar draw) and Oscar historically has trouble with Asian cinema. 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
I like to pair this with Best International Feature since it's usually very international and the other two shorts categories pair so emphatically with a feature category. You can see the review  article here. The predictions

• Bittu (India)
• Feeling Through (US)
• The Human Voice (Spain)
• Kicksled Choir (Norway)
• Two Distant Strangers (US)

alt. the other finalists... Da Yie (Ghana), The Van (Albania), White Eye (Israel), The Present (Palestine/UK), The Letter Room (US). 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• SOUL (lock)
• WOLFWALKERS (lock)
• SHAUN THE SHEEP FARMAGEDDON (probably)
• OVER THE MOON (maybe)
• ONWARD (maybe)

alt. Croods New Age, Calamity

Precursors have been laser-focused on the CG American studio productions and shown zero curiosity about the art-form overseas... and not just this year. That's probably why Oscar's final nominee list each year which generally includes 1 or 2 international titles, always feel marginally surprising even when it shouldn't. But this year, beyond Wolfwalkers, opinion hasn't coalesced around any other non US title. We think the UK's Shaun the Sheep will definitely happen, though, given Oscar's (earned) love of Aardman but otherwise we're going with the typical american slate though among them only Soul feels truly invulnerable. It's easy to picture Onward or Over the Moon falling to The Croods New Age or an unexpected foreign title. 

If Onward makes it it will be the first time Pixar has managed two simultaneous nods in the category.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

• If Anything Happens I Love You (lock)
• Kapaemahu (maybe?)
• Opera (maybe?)
• Snail and the Whale (maybe?)
• Yes People (really hope so!)

alt. the other finalists... Out, To Gerard, Traces, Genius Loci, Burrow

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
A very competitive category this year and so many of them feel like "oh, of course that will be nominated" and yet there can be only five.

• TIME (locked up)
• COLLECTIVE (probably)
• CRIP CAMP (probably)
• BOYS STATE (maybe)
• WELCOME TO CHECHNYA (dear cinematic gods we hope so)

alt. the other finalists which... just spitballing as to an "alternate" prediction order. Let's say... The Truffle Hunters, Dick Johnson is Dead, All In: The Fight for Democracy, My Octopus Teacher, 76 Days, MLK/FBI, The Painter and the Thief, Gunda, The Mole Agent, and Notturno

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
See the full review/prediction article

• HUNGER WARD (locked up)
• COLETTE (likely)
• A CONCERTO IS A CONVERSATION (probably)
• DO NO SPLIT (maybe?)
• SPEED CUBERS (dear cinematic gods, we hope so) 

alt. the other finalists: Love Song for Latasha, Call Center Blues, Abortion Helpline, and the only two that would surprise us as nominees (for different reasons, neither of which relates to quality) Hysterical Girl and What Would Sophia Loren Do?

BEST ACTRESS
We've hashed this out in previous articles and though our opinion hasn't really changed -- we still think Vanessa Kirby is vulnerable -- we're no longer thinking she'll be overthrown by Hollywood legends like Sophia Loren or Michelle Pfeiffer. It's really kind of a shame that The Life Ahead didn't give Sophia Loren more to do (the role is curiously mellow, despite elements which could have made for high drama) because the industry was obviously very pro this happening (with The Life Ahead making various guild lists). As for French Exit, La Pfeiff did way more promotion than usual but the films profile remained very small -- it's not really going "wide" until April and the character is "difficult"/unsymphathetic at times which Oscar voters sometimes have problems with. 

• FRANCES MCDORMAND (lock)
• CAREY MULLIGAN (lock)
• VIOLA DAVIS (lock)
• ANDRA DAY (probably)
• VANESSA KIRBY (probably)

alt. Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead), Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit), and Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy)

BEST ACTOR
We wished Gary Oldman, who we believe to be running in fourth place, was vulnerable. That's not because he isn't good (he is) but just because some of the less likely competitors are stronger. But frankly we don't see it. Even if Mank underperforms, he's probably in. The fifth slot race remains tight, though. Originally it felt like it was a fight between Delroy Lindo, and Kingsley Ben-Adir.... then we had  dreams of a surprise showing by the super-worthy Mads Mikkelsen... and Ben Affleck kept holding on as an artistic comeback story. But lately it's apparent that Minari is a rock solid Best Picture player and the love is still rising so we're betting on Steven Yeun even though it's not really a typical Oscar role (very subtle compared to what they like in this category)  and even though Oscar has not been kind to Asian performers. If nominated Yeun will be the first Asian-American male actor ever nominated; the only other Asian-Americans nominated for acting are sisters Meg and Jennifer Tilly (who are bi-racial). The rest of the scant few Asian acting nominees have been from the UK or various Asian countries.

• CHADWICK BOSEMAN (lock)
• ANTHONY HOPKINS (lock)
• RIZ AHMED (lock)
• GARY OLMAN (probably)
• STEVEN YEUN (maybe)

alt. Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Ben Affleck (The Way Back)...  if there is a shock, though, we think it'll be Mads Mikkelsen turning up out of nowhere because he's sensational in his movie AND people really like the movie too.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
What a strange disappointing category this has been all year. We really thought its vague amorphous nature would result in disagreements between precursors and surprising results (which is what happened with Supporting Actress instead). Instead that amorphous nature just made a giant window for Daniel Kaluuya's leading role to take up all the oxgyen and cruise to a win. Instead the precursors were completely boring and all agreed that it should be Kaluuya, Baron Cohen, Odom Jr, and Boseman (even though he was more deservedly already being rewarded in lead and he has a tiny concept part in this movie).  That left only one spot open. Jared Leto came on strong with Globe & SAG nods, Bill Murray hung around with Globe and Critics Choice nods, and David Strathairn remained a possibility despite no precursor attentino because he is a) a beloved actor who has worked with everyone and b) he is in the best picture frontrunner. But in the end we think Best Actor coattails and rising love for a Best Picture contender will actually work for good rather than evil this year and just barely push Paul Raci into the nominee circle. 

• DANIEL KALUUYA (the lockiest of locks)
• SACHA BARON COHEN (lock)
• LESLIE ODOM JR (lock)
• CHADWICK BOSEMAN (probably)
• PAUL RACI (maybe)

alt. Jared Leto, David Straithairn

IF there is a total shock, we think Alan S Kim in Minari is most likely. But we're not expecting a total shock.  

But it honestly remains a complete and aggravating mystery to us that Glynn Turman couldn't get any traction for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom. We ENTIRELY blame the precursors for this but especially NYFCC for starting the Boseman double rolling. We love Chadwick Boseman but honoring with a leading acting statue is more than enough homage as a farewell. The televised awards followed suit. They had a chance to honor an enduring character actor in the category designed just for them, and instead they went with multiple leading roles, a double honor for a much-missed actor, and (deep sigh) Jared Leto. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
What a wild ride this competition has been. We've had two big articles about it with 100s of comments. Nothing feels certain. Let's start with the two arguable frontrunners

• GLENN CLOSE -Globe + Critics Choice + SAG noms. (Missed BAFTA and from inarguably the least popular film in the running for this category)
• MARIA BAKALOVA -Critics Choice win. SAG, and BAFTA noms. Plus many critics wins. (Appeared at the Globes but not in supporting, promoted to lead where she unexpectedly lost)

While we understand that nobody can be truly locked in a field this volatile, if either Close or Bakalova misses it has to be considered a snub. I think both of them will be there and I also think Oscar is finally going to get over their reluctance to nominate Asian actors thanks to how moving and endearing Minari is and how really excellent Youn Yuh-Jung's role and performance is. I wouldn't call her locked exactly but even if Minari underperforms I think she still has a chance.

• YOUN YUH-JUNG -Critics Choice + Spirit + SAG + BAFTA noms. Plus many critics wins (Missed Globes)

That leaves two spots open which will most likely go to  

• AMANDA SEYFRIED -Globes + Critics Choice noms. No wins (Missed SAG and BAFTA)
• OLIVIA COLMAN -Critics Choice + Globe + SAG. (Missed BAFTA)

ON THE OTHER HAND...

The more I've thought about this the more vulnerable they both seem. Colman really should have been able to manage the BAFTA nod (maybe that was a jury problem though) but if one or both of them are replaced who will it be?

• HELENA ZENGEL -Globe + SAG noms. (Missed BAFTA, Critics Choice)
• ELLEN BURSTYN -Critics Choice nom. (Missed everywhere else)
• DOMINIQUE FISHBACK -BAFTA nom. (Missed everywhere else but film is new and recency bias is real)
• JODIE FOSTER - Globe win. (Missed everywhere else but film is new and recency bias is real)  

Let's do process of elimination. I don't think Zengel is happening. SAG likes young actors more than any other voting body so that nomination wasn't surprising. But then she also lost "Young Performer" at Critics Choice to tiny Alan S Kim from Minari. And News of the World never totally caught on (we think it would have been different in the non-COVID times since it's such a sweeping big screen movie). Burstyn, like Sophia Loren, had goodwill going into the race. but as with Loren her movie didn't give much back. Burstyn's big scene in Pieces of a Woman is late in the movie and she surely would've caught on as a contender by now, right? 

So... that leaves Dominique Fishback who only scored with BAFTA (and juried nominations dont mean much in relation to a group vote of thousands of people) and Jodie Foster from Mauritanian. Fishback seems possible due to the very Supporting Actress trope kind of role it is and how recent it is. But on the other hand it is kind of a small role and coattails from Kaluuya haven't helped her yet, really. Foster is a Hollywood legend  but are enough people watching their screeners? And would she have factored in AT ALL if the Globes hadn't surprised her with the win? Maybe not but they did. And the BAFTA nods in general categories (non-juried) and Fosters win at the AARP "movies for grownups" awards (over Youn, Close, Burstyn, and Bergen) suggests that people are watching it. And that maybe Foster has caught a good portion of the 'Hollywood Legend Comeback!' votes that awards strategists for Burstyn, Loren, and Pfeiffer were banking would come their way this season.

Throwing caution to the wind I'm predicting that Seyfriend, who we once long ago thought would win, will miss and guessing like so

• BAKALOVA
• CLOSE
• COLMAN
• FOSTER
• YOUN

alt. Seyfried (we love her so this is sad), Fishback. 

OH AND WHOOPS. FORGOT THIS YESTERDAY

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The CDG nominations suggest that Ammonite is a long shot but  we're going to guess it anyway for bragging rights in case it does. We tried out so many combos and nothing felt exactly right. One Night in Miami didn't feel "Most Costumes" enough. Judas and the Black Messiah is coming from an era that Oscar isn't obsessed with in that category, News of the World didn't nab a CDG nomination. We're rooting for Promising Young Woman but the truth is that contemporary films are always major longshots in this category. That's wrong but that's the way it is! 

• MA RAINEY (lock)
• EMMA (lock)
• MANK (probably)
• MULAN (maybe?)
• AMMONITE (no guts no glory)

alt. One Night in Miami, Jingle Jangle, Promising Young Woman

Comments

[Rob]

Most polarizing performance:

And the winner is (dramatic pause)

GLENN CLOSE

[Working stiff]

...except that I didn't write that comment about Close. Can the children please go home now and play with your toys (or yourselves) offline? This imposter, multiple-alias bullshit was tired when it started.

[Raga]

I don't understand the Bakalova fast train, it's an ok performance in a less than ok movie. Too much hype because of solely Giuliani. I'm calling it now that she will be tomorrow's morning 'snub'. Too fringe for academy's taste.

[Amy Camus]

I haven't seen La Llarona yet, but I'm rooting for it to get in based on the excellence of Ixcanul.

[Rob]

@Amy Camus: La Llorona is really good, I liked it a lot. It's streaming on Shudder currently.

[TheDrMistery]

It's the first time I saw someone claiming that Olivia Colman is vulnerable. Elsewhere the consensus seemed to be that she's a lock for a nomination and the only one sure not to win.

[Henny]

Working Stiff haven't you been disrupting threads lately randomly calling other innocent opinion givers douches? Maybe grow up first yourself. Unless that wasn't you in the thread with James Dunn? They'll probably pack up their toys when you take a time out.

We've all been hit by imposters, usually ignore them and they settle down. And consider yourself lucky, yours was spitting straight facts instead of the hate that you stand by saying.

[Jacques]

Please lord let Bakalova get in. She won't win as the many extremely astute and intelligent readers of TFE know it's Close's "time". But such a great, fun comedy achievement should be praised.

[Working stiff]

....instead of the hate that you stand by saying.

What? Um, no. It's like this: you come across one comment signed with your handle and have to wonder how many other threads have similar (or even more unpleasant) imposter comments. At a certain point it becomes absurd. And what exactly is the point of these impersonations and aliases? To disrupt the TFE community by antagonizing the host & contributors and driving regular commenters away? It's sad and pathetic behavior that will only end when the site has some kind of security or authentication measures in place. Whenever that is.