Best Picture Nominees - Who's Up? Who's Down?
Monday, March 15, 2021 at 8:10PM by Christopher James
Is Nomadland still looking like the clear winner for Best Picture?
Oscar nomination morning changes everything. What it takes to be nominated for an Oscar and win an Oscar are very different. As we enter this new phase for the Oscars, who is best set up for success on April 25th? The eight Best Picture nominees were all the most nominated movies of the year. Mank led with ten nominations. The rest of the nominees all had relatively good days, each earning six nominations except for Promising Young Woman, which received five nominations. Among non-Best Picture nominees, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom led with five nominations and News of the World with four nominations.
With the Oscar mainly coalescing around the eight Best Picture movies, which of them benefitted? Were any movies disappointments, despite a Best Picture nomination? Can anything beat current frontrunner Nomadland?
Who Is Up?
Promising Young Woman (5 nominations - Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing)
Even though it has the lowest nomination count of any Best Picture nominee this year, Promising Young Woman was the biggest winner of the bunch. Emerald Fennell was on the cusp of a Best Director nomination and her inclusion was historic. This marks the first year two women have been nominated in the same Best Directory category. Additionally, the film was a relative longshot in the Film Editing category, where flashier movies (Tenet, News of the World) or other Best Picture nominees (Minari, Mank) were expected to show up. This was one of only two movies that showed up in the four major categories that predict Best Picture (Director, Writing, Acting and Editing). Could this potentially upset Nomadland? It has a long way to go to do that. However, this strengthens its case for winning in Best Actress for Carey Mulligan and Best Original Screenplay.
Judas and the Black Messiah (6 nominations - Picture, Supporting Actor x2, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Original Song)
Who predicted LaKeith Stanfield's nomination in Supporting Actor? There are many reasons the nomination is surprising, chief among them being that apparently the movie has no leads and both titular characters are supporting. Still, this is a clear sign of love and support for the movie. Only Daniel Kaluuya’s Supporting Actor nomination was locked heading into this morning. The other five nominations were all hard fought and well earned. Without a directing or editing nomination, it makes it hard to imagine Judas and the Black Messiah surprising in Best Picture. However, this level of support solidifies Daniel Kaluuya’s spot as a frontrunner and positions it to possibly take home Original Song as well.
The Father (6 nominations - Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design)
Is The Father a threat to win Best Picture? No. However, this answers a major question pundits were asking this season: Have voters seen The Father? Yes, and apparently many branches really loved it. The Film Editing and Production Design are really thoughtful, standout elements of the film. If voters were thoughtful enough to nominate it in these categories, it may pull out a surprise win, particularly in Film Editing. All of this support also strengthens Olivia Colman’s chances in Supporting Actress, which is a pretty wide open category for the win.
Who Is Even?
Nomadland (6 nominations - Picture, Director, Actress (McDormand), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing)
When someone is the frontrunner, the only place to go is down. Luckily, Nomadland showed up everywhere it needed to show up to stay the frontrunner. It was one of only two films to show up in all four major precursor fields (Director, Writing, Acting and Editing). Nominations for David Straithairn in Supporting Actor or for Best Sound would’ve put it out further ahead as the clear winner. Still, Nomadland is on track to win at least four categories and potentially all six.
Minari (6 nominations - Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Original Score)
Nothing made me happier this morning than Seeing Lee Isaac Chung, Steven Yeun and Yuh-Jung Youn earn Oscar nominations. While it was a good day for Minari, it missed in some key categories that could’ve positioned it as a Best Picture spoiler. After receiving an ACE Eddie nomination, Minari could’ve shown up in Editing to make it a real threat in Best Picture. Similarly, nominations for Alan Kim in Supporting Actor, Cinematography or Original Song would have demonstrated a huge ground swell of support. Still, six nominations is incredibly strong for Minari and could help propel it to wins in Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay, depending on how the next month of campaigning goes.
Sound of Metal (6 nominations - Picture, Actor (Ahmed), Supporting Actor (Raci), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Sound)
Similarly to Minari, it’s impressive and exciting how well Sound of Metal performed on Oscar nomination morning. Paul Raci was far from guaranteed in Best Supporting Actor and is a very welcome and well-deserved mention. Nominations in Original Screenplay and Film Editing also demonstrate widespread support for the film. The lack of a Best Director nomination keeps it from being a threat to win in Best Picture. However, this level of support, plus the snub for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in Best Picture, could make Riz Ahmed the dark horse in Best Actor. No matter what, the Oscars should already send out its Oscar for Best Sound.
Who Is Down?
The Trial of the Chicago Seven (6 nominations - Best Picture, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Song)
Aaron Sorkin missing in Best Director really hurts The Trial of the Chicago Seven in the Best Picture race. There have been recent examples of movies winning Best Picture without a Best Director nomination (Green Book and Argo). However, these movies had clear wins coming from other categories. At one time, Sacha Baron Cohen was a major threat in Supporting Actor. Now, it’s Daniel Kaluuya’s Oscar to lose. Now, it’s looking to win Screenplay only, though Promising Young Woman and Minari will be tough competition. On its best day, Trial could’ve brought another actor into Supporting Actor and showed up in Director, Costume Design, Original Score and Sound. That it showed up with only six nominations means it may not be the threat we thought it was.
Mank (10 nominations - Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound)
It seems a bit counterintuitive to call the nomination leader an underperformer. Such is the anomaly that is Mank. The David Fincher biopic on Citizen Kane screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz had initially felt like a potential Best Picture winner. However, once it was released many criticized the film for being too confusing or esoteric. Though it earned ten nominations, it missed in key categories like Best Original Screenplay, Film Editing and Visual Effects. The first two are key nominations to get on the way to Best Picture. Written by Fincher’s Father, Jack Fincher, there was a built in narrative to an Original Screenplay that should’ve made it an easy get. Missing here demonstrates that voters appreciate Mank more than they love it.
Reader Comments (27)
Mank getting 10 nominations is a joke. It maybe deserved 3. Maybe. I get filmbros worship Fincher but that movie is...... OK at best. It would be nice to spread the love around. That best director nomination is embarrassing.
Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal look like the day's winners. If SoM had gotten a Best Directing nod (rather than, say, Mank), things would be even more interesting. While I don't see either of these two pulling off a surprising (i.e., miraculous) Best Picture win, both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor are within reach. (I actually think the double category fraud nods may hurt Kaluuya's chances, to Raci's benefit.)
On another note: I'm feeling The Father in Editing.
Last not least: as the Best Supporting Actress dust settles, the campaigns for Bakalova, Seyfried and Youn have their work cut out for them, but any one of them could make it happen. The formula for success is Precursors + Performance + Narrative + Campaign (which is why I didn't include Colman—her narrative is too weak this year, and Sony Pictures Classics botches campaigns like nobody else).
Honestly, all I care about is Carey Mulligan winning.
The world needs to return to some semblance of order in the year since Renee Zellweger won a much undeserved prize.
All today did was confirm that the photo op after the Oscar ceremony will be a beaming Chloe Zhao struggling to hold four Oscars in her arms at the after party.
I'm down with all of them except for Mank and Trial of Chicago 7. The former is pretty to look at but dull and rather pointless while the latter is entertaining and well acted yet overall unconvincing and somewhat glib. I could have done with neither getting BP nods in favor of Another Round, Ma Rainey and/or First Cow.
Promising Young Woman getting in for Editing and Directing is huge. I don't think the film has a wide enough appeal to win Best Picture, but this easily could've been a Lead Actress/Original Screenplay and nothing else moment and it got so much more.
So is Sound of Metal getting in for Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, and Editing. This felt like another one that could've just gotten in for Lead Actor/Sound if it underperformed. Instead, Paul Raci got in despite being up against two leading roles from one film. I thought it was more likely to see two acting nominations out of Sound of Metal than see the screenplay and editing be recognized. This never really got traction for Directing which is a shame since Darius Marder directed the hell out of this film, but that's not the narrative that the precursors latched onto.
With that said, I still think Nomadland or Minari is going to win Best Picture. We'll see. A lot can change before the final votes.
I really like all of these films, with the exceptions of Mank, Judas and the Black Messiah, and The Trial of the Chicago 7.
I have an eerie feeling "Promising Young Woman" will sweep all 5.
Interesting that Mank is the nomination leader but is in a precarious position to lose much of its nominations not having nods from screenplay which arguably is the film's raison d'être.
I would love Chloé Zhao to sweep -- so deserving. And may her success lead to more film productions of character-driven narratives whose stories hew close to what's going on in places and situations rarely captured in moving image and writings. Happy for her to do big-budget films so she can have more budget for her passion projects. May she and Huppert cross paths someday.
Off topic: Happy for Fiona Apple's wins in the Grammys. I didn't realise that both Renée Zellweger and Meryl Streep were Grammy nominated this year. Imagine if one or both won - one more step closer to EGOThood.
I reckon THE FATHER should really try and focus on adapted screenplay. Especially given the frontrunner there is presumably NOMADLAND that is full of silence and non-professional actors in a way that many would be led to believe it's not much of a screenplay (they'd be wrong, but I can see it). THE FATHER however seems well-loved and I don't really see where else it could win (Hopkins will surely still come second place in actor, Colman isn't winning, and those techs aren't as flashy as the wider academy normally embraces).
As for MANK. Gotta love a film getting ten nominations, the most of any film, and people still saying the response was "cool" or "disappointing".
Mank not getting that screenplay nod is telling. It could really be this year's IRISHMAN, a film that goes home empty handed after double digit nominations. Or, who knows, I still think it could take Supporting Actress or cinematography. A lot can happen in five weeks, or whatever it is.
I am all about PYW winning all of them and the way obnoxious Mank losing everything. Thinking that we have been waiting six years for Fincher to deliver something after the masterpiece that was Gone Girl and he gives us Mank !!! Plus: Mulligan deserves to win not just because she's phenomenal in PYM but also because she's constantly being snubbed for amazing performances ( Wildlife, Drive, Shame, Mudbound) and Sandra Bullock has Carey's Oscar on her shelf.
I didn't do too badly with my predictions. But seriously who predicted Stanfield for Supporting Actor/
Can we just draw our hat... I think @Nathaniel you did bloody well with your predictions !! Mainly 4/5 ... this might be one of your best years ? And it was FUN ! Thank you for this ride ;-)
I think for the win...
1. Minari (the most obvious pick for the AMPAS crowd)
2. Chicago 7 (the 2nd most obvious)
3. Nomadland (the year long sweeper at critics)
4. Mank (most nominated and biggest cross-appeal)
(I'd be surprised if anything else won)
I think The Father has positioned itself as stronger for Hopkins to win or maybe Ahmed for Sound of Metal.
I don't see PYW winning for Best Picture.
I just hope Claudio took up my suggestion of Leto for an Almost There.
I had 2 people tell me yesterday that they won't watch Nomadland because they don't want to watch Frances McDormand "s**t in a bucket." Classic.
I think the diversity of the nominations could mean that some of the traditional markers of a win (editing, etc.) might not matter as much. Voters had a long period to watch films and really spread the wealth this year, so it's easy to see this look a bit different.
Still, I see the race between 2-3 contenders:
Nomadland, the critical fave that's been sweeping televised shows
Minari, the emotional Americana tale
The Trail of the Chicago 7, the political film that will appeal to the academy's viewpoints
Netflix has a proven track record of not being great at campaigns, which will hurt Trial. Nomadland is the obvious frontrunner, but Minari could upset.
I also think that Hopkins or even Ahmed have a good chance to win Best Actor and that race is much more fluid than people think. I've suspected all along that the idea that Best Actor was locked up for Boseman was a media-driven narrative.
Poshumous Oscars are so rare, there has never been one awarded in the leading category, and there has never been one awarded for a first-time nominee. And it's rare for someone to win Best Actor without a corresponding Best Picture nomination (even moreso when all of his competitors are from BP nominees).
Correction - Peter Finch was a Best Actor winner, I was thinking he had won Supporting. Still, he was a previous nominee and Network was a major presence at that year's Oscars.
Praying and believing Anthony Hopkins will take his second and well-deserved Oscar, joining Vivien Leigh in a rare case in which the Actor wins the Oscar for his/her best performances.
I am thinking/hoping that Judas and the Black Messiah can take some votes from Chicago 7. When you stand them next to one another, Judas is the stronger film that actually has something to say. I hope the Academy sees that and realizes how flaccid and manipulative (you can be both) Chicago 7 is.
PS since someone else brought up EGOT and the Grammys, am I mistaken or did Taikia Waititi just win a Grammy for JOJO to go along with his Oscar? That surely would have been the most difficult of the big four awards for him to win.
So, the big questions... who was #9 and even #10, I mean, who would have been nominated if the expansion to 10 would have started this year? Suspects:
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - nominated for both Leading performers. Snubbed in Directing and Screenplay.
One Night in Miami - nominated for 1 acting performance
Another Round - Best Direction nom
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm - PGA + WGA + 1 acting nom + Screenplay
I think those may be the 4 primary suspects... I am going to go with Borat as #9 and Another Round as #10. I have the hunch Borat came really, really close to score enough #1 votes to enter
Another Colman over Close win would be so delicious!
@ Jesus
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom was 9, One Night in Miami... was 10, Borat was 11. I'm convinced of that.
Given the current political mood and the majors events of the past year, this year could actually be the year in which all winners are BIPOC. Chaswick Boseman, Best Actor followed closely by either Steven Yeun or Riz Ahmed. Andra Day, Best Actress followed by Viola Davis. Daniel Kayuula, the apparent lock for supporting actor and Yuh-Jung Youn in for supporting actress. Some of these aren’t my preferred choices but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a winner’s list looking like this.
While Nomadland appears to have the momentum at the start, front runners sometimes have a hard time crossing the finish line. I think the one Oscar they are assured is Best Director.