93rd Academy Awards: Best Picture
Monday, April 19, 2021 at 2:05PM 
by Lynn Lee
The weirdest aspect of this year’s Best Picture race may be its lack of weirdness. For an Oscars season that the COVID-19 pandemic first threatened to derail and then expanded, in which the vast majority of voters saw none of the contenders in theaters and almost no traditional Oscar campaigning, the path to the Academy’s biggest prize has been, on the whole, remarkably smooth. With few real curveballs either in the nominations or in the precursor awards, some might even call it a little dull (especially when compared to how bonkers some of the other categories have been). On the bright side, the final lineup of BP nominees is pretty solid, even if I’d rate First Cow above them all and would happily swap out The Trial of the Chicago 7 for at least a half dozen other films. Here’s my take on each of the nominated movies, in ascending order of personal preference.
8. THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
It has all the ingredients of a Best Picture: a historically significant, politically topical story, an impressive ensemble cast, and a screenplay by Aaron Sorkin, the master of punctuating witty banter with eloquent speeches. Unfortunately, the end product is handicapped by uninspired direction as well as odd writing and editing choices that tend to dilute its emotional impact—culminating (or rather, fizzling) in a dud of a final scene that falls utterly flat while trying to sound an inspiring closing note. Perhaps the real trial was too messy and protracted to lend itself to A Few Good Men-style Sorkinization, perhaps there were simply too many players to give them their full due in just over two hours, but it doesn’t really jell either as a courtroom drama or as a behind-the-scenes treatment of the Chicago 7 8. For a far more powerful depiction of how the forces of law and order have historically been called to account (or not) for systemic discrimination and suppression of peaceful protestors, you’re better off watching Mangrove, the superb first installment of Steve McQueen’s Small Axe series—or, for that matter, Chicago 7’s fellow nominee Judas and the Black Messiah.
Odds of winning?
Decent – probably the best among the nominees not named Nomadland. It’s the closest to a mainstream, middle-of-the-road crowd-pleaser and it won best ensemble at SAG, so there’s clearly residual goodwill for it among likely Oscar voters. But who exactly is passionate for it?
7. MANK
Say what you like about Mank or its period authenticity (or lack thereof), it looks great; after Nomadland, it’s the film I most regret not being able to see in a theater. The acting, too, is very good across the board. Its biggest problems, ironically for a movie about the writing of an iconic screenplay, lie in the unevenness of its own screenplay, famously penned by David Fincher’s own dad. Mank toggles between two time frames – the writing of Citizen Kane by a sequestered, washed-up Herman Mankiewicz and the memories of his earlier, high-flying days hobnobbing with the Hollywood elite. While the former sequences drag, the latter are quite compelling, showing how Mank’s darkening view of the hand that feeds him exacerbates his own guilt and self-loathing. For me, the most intriguing aspect of the film isn’t its embrace of a debunked theory of Kane’s authorship but its exposure of Hollywood’s complicity in exploiting labor, turning a blind eye to rising fascism, and even manufacturing political propaganda (literal “fake news”), all to protect its own narrow interests.
Odds of winning?
Surprisingly low considering it racked up the highest overall number of nominations. Conventional wisdom holds that Hollywood loves to honor movies about making movies, but Mank isn’t exactly an affectionate or nostalgic look back at Hollywood’s Golden Age. To the contrary, it maintains a critical distance from the myths it’s portraying, which isn’t calculated to win over Oscar voters.
6. JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Fred Hampton’s too-short life as a rising Black Panther leader and his shameful murder-by-cop is a story everyone should know, and its relevance today speaks for itself. Judas tackles this difficult material with both nuance and control, without lapsing into heavy-handed polemic. Gripping, suspenseful, and stunningly shot, it rides on the strong lead (yes, LEAD) performances by Lakeith Stanfield and Daniel Kaluuya as the titular Judas and Messiah, respectively. Yet as I discussed in my review, the film fails to provide any real insight into the connection between the two men or the core of Stanfield’s character. The effect is to keep viewers at a distance when it should be drawing them in most closely.
Odds of winning?
I suspect better than most pundits think, though a win is unlikely. Frankly, if contemporary resonance were the deciding factor for best picture, Judas would be well positioned to take this, even though it’s pitted against several other nominees that tap into the current political zeitgeist. The double nomination of Stanfield and Kaluuya for supporting actor, while ludicrous, also indicates widespread support for the film.
5. SOUND OF METAL
No hearing-related joke intended when I say that this is the quietest of all the BP nominees. Its scope also feels the most intimate and narrowly drawn, which actually works to its advantage given its singular focus on Riz Ahmed’s terrific performance as a heavy metal drummer who’s forced to confront the nightmarish reality of going deaf. Although the film’s trajectory may seem predictable – with Ahmed’s character basically moving through the five stages of grief – it doesn’t always go where you expect it to and maintains a delicate tonal balance between empathy and objectivity. It’s also helped enormously by a sound design that evokes the protagonist’s aural displacement to marvelous effect. Also, the last two scenes are hands-down the most poignant and perfectly pitched final scenes of any movie I saw in 2020.
Odds of winning?
Low, simply because it feels so much smaller and less flashy than most of the other nominees.
4. PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Among the nominees, Emerald Fennell’s debut (and what a debut!) crackles and pulses with the most subversive energy, thanks in large part to Carey Mulligan’s revelatory turn as the woman who just can’t let go of the friend everyone else done wrong and then forgot. Less a revenge thriller or dark comedy than a psychodrama with razor-sharp satirical edges, the film’s pitch-black but carefully modulated rage strikes an unsettling counterpoint to the soft pastels of its visual style. While the script repeatedly upends expectations – sometimes at the expense of plot plausibility – it also pushes the audience to recognize not just the violation but the erasure of women who are denied any kind of acknowledgment, much less justice. The resulting tonal whiplash is very much intentional, leading to a gut-punch of an ending that’s at once a fierce blow against rape culture and a grim concession to its primacy. Not everything about the movie works, but it will get under your skin and stay there.
Odds of winning?
Extremely low. This is the most divisive of the nominees, and is unlikely to appeal to the more conservative members of the Academy, even though its fans really love it.
3. THE FATHER
The most impeccably crafted of the nominees, and quite possibly the best stage-to-screen transfer I’ve ever seen. In adapting his own play, Florian Zeller counterintuitively uses its most play-like features – small cast, limited space, repeated conversations, and ambiguous temporal jumps – to project the increasing disorientation of the protagonist’s declining mind onto the audience with amazingly cinematic fluidity. My one reservation is that the film is almost too cerebral (somewhat ironic for a movie about dementia). Its puzzle box-like structure kept me so busy trying to figure out what was “really” happening that it tended to distract me from just how devastating the whole situation was, notwithstanding the exquisitely heartrending performances by Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman. On reflection, though, that’s part of the movie’s genius in capturing the viewpoint of the afflicted man who observes the distress of those around him without really registering or processing it.
Odds of winning?
Fairly low, given the film’s late general release and that it is both apolitical and lily-white in a year where most of the other contenders, even the ones with historical settings, feel highly attuned to the political currents of today. It does pose the uncomfortable question of whether The Father could win any of the Oscars it’s up for without provoking backlash, even though no one who’s seen it could reasonably deny it would be a deserving winner in all its categories. For better or worse, however, I don’t think the Academy will put itself in that position.
2. MINARI
Y’all know I can’t be objective about this movie because it is so personal for me. Which may be why its awards season success has felt like a mini-miracle in a generally surreal year. Minari is, by design, a modest, culturally specific family drama, even something of a period piece, set in the 1980s rural Arkansas of Lee Isaac Chung’s boyhood. Yet Chung and his wonderful cast transform it into a relatable story not just for Korean Americans, Asian Americans, immigrants, or even Americans, but anyone who’s ever been uprooted or attempted to realize a personal dream against long odds. The film isn’t perfect: the dramatic climax in the third act feels a little forced, its resolution a little too neat, and the conclusion a little too abrupt. However, these flaws ebb quickly from memory in favor of the tender, funny, and poignant dynamics of the Yi family and the verdant, if capricious, landscape in which they seek to carve out their own Garden of Eden. Whether or not Minari is the best of the nominees, it’s easily the warmest and most endearing.
Odds of winning?
I remain skeptical that Minari can score an upset. The same voters who love it probably also love Nomadland and may rank the latter a smidge higher, and there’s also likely a contingent with the asinine mindset “We honored a Korean movie last year, we don’t need to do it again this year”—never mind that while Parasite was a Korean production, Minari is American, or that the two films are completely different in tone, structure, and content. That said, I do wonder whether Minari might benefit from the recent surge in activism against anti-Asian racism following the recent Atlanta spa shootings. I don’t think that would be enough to put it over the top, but stranger things have happened.
1. NOMADLAND
Not everyone may be on board with what Chloé Zhao is doing at the intersection of fictional film and docudrama, but I find it absolutely fascinating and worthy of all the accolades she’s received. Nomadland blurs the boundaries further with the addition of Frances McDormand as a purely fictional character—though you wouldn’t know it from her lovely, understated performance, which blends in seamlessly with the nomads playing versions of their real selves. Unlike the book, Zhao avoids focusing on the late-stage, corporate behemoth-driven capitalism that created the nomadism phenomenon, preferring to highlight the unlikely beauty and dignity of these makeshift, itinerant lives and the simultaneously fleeting and enduring bonds they form with one another. But the sense of the American Dream as illusory promise still pervades the film as a whole, underscored by the spare yet gorgeous cinematography, which casts the grandeur of the American West with a melancholy that feels at once modern and timeless. Nomadland may well be the Grapes of Wrath of our generation.
Odds of winning?
It’s the frontrunner for a reason.
Conclusion
The race is still Nomadland’s to lose, though there’s a lurking possibility of a Director-Picture split with Trial of the Chicago 7 (which would be deeply annoying) or Minari (less likely but much more palatable).
Reader Comments (42)
1. Promising Young Woman ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
2. Nomadland ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
3. The Father ❤️❤️❤️❤️
4. Minari ❤️❤️❤️❤️
5. Sound of Metal ❤️❤️❤️❤️
6. Mank ❤️❤️❤️
7. Judas and the Black Mesiah ❤️❤️❤️
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 ❤️❤️❤️
I don't know anyone who loves Trial of the Chicago 7 or Mank. Since I hear zero passion for those films, I suspect they're out of the running. I know fervent fans of all the other films, but I think Nomadland will probably win handily.
1. Minari
2. Nomadland
3. Mank
4. Sound of Metal
5. The Father
6. Promising Young Woman
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7
8. Judas and the Black Messiah
Strong lineup overall. In fact it's maybe the first time ever in an expanded BP field where I don't dislike any of the films (even if I have various reservations about many).
Great article, Lynn!
Trial is towards the bottom of my list of 8 too, but for a reason fairly particular to a certain group of people from West Los Angeles. Tom Hayden was my state senator in the 1990s and I in no way, shape, or form believed that Eddie Redmayne would grow into the Tom Hayden who represented me in the legislature.
I really think this race would be a five-picture race if not for Nomadland. It has run through awards season almost uninterrupted.
I will happily have it as the winner.
My rankings:
1-Nomadland
2-Minari
3-Promising Young Woman
4-Sound of Metal
5-Trial of Chicago 7
6-Judas and the Black Messiah
7-Mank
8-The Father
The Oscar will always be The Oscar. With ir without an epidemic vírus. There is a complaint that the biggest prize's taste doesn't match with audience's taste, but for a long time they had the same taste. AMPAS can't change its criteria every time the public changes its preferences. The Oscar Will always be The Oscar.
My ranking:
1. Minari
2. The Father
3. Nomadland
4. Sound of Metal
5. Promising Young Woman
6. Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Judas and the Black Messiah
8. Mank
My ranking:
1. Promising Young Woman
2. The Father
3. Sound of Metal
4. Minari
5. The Trial of Chicago 7
6. Mank
I have yet to see "Nomadland" and "Judas..."
1. Nomadland
2. The Father
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
6. Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Sound of Metal
8. Mank
I think this is quite a strong line-up. I don't dislike any of these movies although I was really disappointed by Mank. Sound of Metal was well-made and -acted, but it didn't move me as it did so many others. I agree with all the misgivings about Trial, but I still enjoyed it more than many films that have won Best Picture in recent years.
I don't understand why there'd be a backlash if a white actor won an award esp as Hopkins could.
Nomadland wins with Minari upsetting at the final hurdle.
1. Promising Young Woman
2. Sound of Metal
3. Nomadland
4. Minari
5. The Father
6. Judas and the Black Messiah
7. Mank
8. Trial of the Chicago 7 (this film at times seems like a joke nominee Glenn Close announces in ‘In & Out’)
Aaron Sorkin can go freak himself. Pretentious Oscar bait.
I want Minari to win, but Nomadland is a worthy winner too.
The only people rankled by PYW are hypocritical bigots.
I remember the 2018 Film Independent Spirit Awards where Chloe Zhao won the Bonnie Award and Frances McDormand won Best Actress. During her acceptance speech, McDormand called out to Zhao that their contracts were signed for an upcoming collaborative effort. I was excited about the idea of the two women working together and hoped for something special. Nomadland is something special and deserves its Best Picture Oscar at the end of this week.
I absolutely loved NOMADLAND, THE FATHER, SOUND OF METAL, and MINARI (in roughly that order). I found MANK to be a tedious slog (aside from Seyfried) and PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN to be entertaining, but hardly Best Picture worthy. Haven't seen the other two nominees.
I truly hope NOMADLAND pulls off what ROMA could not, but I fear the Academy's overwhelming preference for male-centric movies winning Best Picture may tip the balance toward TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7.
As I understand, politics is more important than the quality of the film, right?
Could Fadhil please let us know how he conducted the exhaustive and thorough research which led him to such a dispassionate conclusion?
Believe it or not...
1. Promising Young Woman | Sound of Metal | The Father
4. Judas & the Black Messiah | Mank
6. Nomadland | Minari
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7
1. Nomadland
2. The Father
3. Minari
4. Sound of Metal
5. Judas and the Black Messiah
6. Promissing Young Woman
7. The Trial of Chicago 7
8. Mank
James - I remember the same thing! Awesome speech by McDormand that night. Pretty cool that it led to this.
My rating
1.Nomadland (almost a masterpiece)
2.The father (magnificent performances and screenplay)
3.Minari (great actors and story)
4.Judas and the black messiah (powerful performances and nice direction)
5.The trial of the Chicago 7 (wonderful cast, I don't love it but I don't hate it like other people do)
6.Mank (very impressive images and good actors)
7.Sound of metal (very good actors and great sound, butthe screenplay is weak)
8.Promising young woman (Mulligan deserves the Oscar, it's a funny movie but the last 30 minutes are a complete mess)
My ranking!
Promising Young Woman
Nomadland
Minari
Sound of Metal
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
The Father
Trial of Chicago 7
To me, one of the best Best Picture lineups in recent memory. I am absolutely in love with five of them, and I don't care for the other three, but I don't hate them at all.
1. Nomadland
2. The Sound of Metal
3. Promising Young Woman
4. Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Minari
6. Mank
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7
I have yet to see The Father. I like all of the films in this category minus Trial--I think it's a good lineup. I LOVE Nomadland and think it will make an excellent winner if it in fact is named Best Picture.
Great write up Lynn. This is exactly the preference order I would have them in. Nomadland, The Father and Minari were the last nominees I got around to seeing and it was just like BAM, BAM, BAM - all three blew me away to various degrees in quick succession and knocked PYW off the top spot.
Lynn, absolutely terrific article. You've written a fitting and lovely tribute to these six beautifully made films plus the Sorkin movie. :)
I do think other than Chicago 7, this is one of the all-time best Best Picture lists we've EVER had.
@EricB: well said! Great piece, Lynn.
God please do not let Trial of Chicago 7 win. Please with sugar on top.
the father
promising young woman
sound of metal
nomadland
judas and the black messiah
minari
chicago 7
mank
My personal rankings:
1) Mank
2) Nomadland
3) The Father
4) Promising Young Woman
5) Minari
6) Judas and the Black Messiah
7) Sound of Metal
8) The Trial of the Chicago 7
Damn. People hate Aaron Sorkin. I think that if he and the cop who killed George Floyd showed up at the same event, film fans would boo the former more than the latter. This isn't a swipe at Lynn, whose assessment above is totally on point and fair. But people in comments here and elsewhere act like TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 is THE BIRTH OF A NATION. Okay, it's not VLADIMIR ET ROSA but calm down. it's.... decent streaming fare. We should be thankful there aren't three other films of that level of mediocrity on the ballot this year.
1. Nomadland
2. Minari
3. The Father
4. Judas and the Black Messiah
5. Sound of Metal
6. Mank
7. Promising Young Woman
8. Chicago 7
Kelly G, Timothy L, EricB, and Rob - thanks for the kind words!
Rafaello - no, but (1) it's certain to be a factor in at least some of the votes, and (2) it can sometimes be hard for some voters to separate the two ("politics" and quality).
Dan H - heh, I don't think people hate Sorkin (although there seems to be a fairly dim view of him as a director, as opposed to screenwriter), just that this particular film is *not* his best work by a long shot...even as a writer...and is miles behind every single one of the other nominees in artistry and creativity. Me, personally, I was very excited for it before I saw it and quite a bit deflated after. It's watchable, certainly, and honorably intentioned, and has some good bits; but not much more.
I haven't watched any of them but I found this article in the web and the rank is very different from many lists I've seen
https://www.espinof.com/listas/ocho-nominadas-a-mejor-pelicula-oscar-2021-ordenadas-peor-a-mejor/amp
The perception could change depending the country you live because of idiosyncrasy?
Great piece Lynn Lee. Love the way you run your comment section as well. Felt like the good old days.
"Whether or not Minari is the best of the nominees, it’s easily the warmest and most endearing." - Totally agreed!! and I think Minari will score alotsa No.2 or 3 passion pick. If Nomadland did not cross the 50% margin in the 1st round, Minari might score an upset.
My fav of the nominees is PYW, but I agreed it is too divisive a film & the (white-male-cis) bias against it hampers its chance to pull an upset on Nomadland.
I wld said only 4 films outta the 8 stands a legitimate chance to win Best Picture and my order of preference is:
1) Promising Young Woman
2) Minari
3) Nomadland
4) The Trial of Chicago 7
I gave up on Chicago 7 after 15 minutes - just another Sorkin script with non-stop speeches and talking. I loved Minari the most as it took my breath away, the Nomadland and The Father. Really want to see The Sound of Metal but unsure where (I’m in Australia)
I'll admit, I don't really get the love for Nomadland this season. It's well made, but it seems to want to be both sociological and personal, but struggles to do so because it also aims to be apolitical (and no, I'm not talking about Amazon). I think moments work because of McDormand's brilliant ability to center Fern's grief while playing a bunch of contradictions and because of some quiet scenes (the broken plates scene), but that its overall impact doesn't quite hold up.
I do think, however, that it will win. It's an academy friendly film that hits all the right themes they care about, and the fact that there are so many non-professional actors is a nice gimic much like the artist had.
I do hope my personal favorite - Minari - upsets. That film felt grounded and truthful about the immigrant experience, the desire to be successful and escape poverty, and small town life in a way that I rarely see depicted in film.
I quite liked Mank, but it's not at the level of Nomadland or Minari. In such a crazy year, I think it's a small miracle that one of these two wonderful movies are in position to win. Worthy in any year.
1. Minari (by a smidge)
2. Nomadland
3. The Father
4. Mank
5. Sound of Metal
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
7. Promising Young Woman
Messiah is the one I haven't yet seen, hope to this weekend.
IMO, the 5 best films of 2020
First Cow
The Father
Sound Of Metal
Nomadland
Minari
Even if I accepted The Trial of the Chicago 7 as an accurate depiction of history, I was tremendously put off by how uninterested Aaron Sorkin was with Bobby Seale. (Yahya Abdul-Mateen II did a good job in a role that largely gave him nothing to do.)
As I watched, I felt like Sorkin gave that part of the story the bare minimum, and wondered if a better film could be made about the Black Panther portion of the history. I soon discovered that such a film had already been made, and I saw Judas and the Black Messiah less than two months later.
The Father & Promising Young Woman were the only 2 that came close to a great film for me. Neither will win.
Lynn, awesome analysis. I love the Grapes of Wrath comparison with Nomadland. I just love this film. And Steinbeck is my favorite writer.
Ha, thanks David, but Nathaniel deserves the credit for moderating - if there have been any nasty comments, I haven't seen them! It also helps that most people seem to agree this is a very strong slate of nominees, even if we disagree on how they rank against each other.
brookesboy - interestingly, Grapes of Wrath also came to mind when I saw Minari, at least initially...but it ends up in a more positive and hopeful place, I think.
Everyone: for some really interesting discussions of all the BP nominees, check out Vox's roundtables (written, not video or audio) - they haven't posted yet for JUDAS and MINARI, but all the discussions of the other nominees have been high quality and shown a fascinating range of opinions.