So ... um ... who is going to win Best Actress?
Tuesday, April 6, 2021 at 9:00AM by Nathaniel R
This is the way all awards seasons should be. Well, not the Zoom breakout rooms... but the uncertainty. There's no godly reason why sweeps should ever exist in awards season given that art is subjective. If you poll any group of people on anything you will see a vast array of opinions. Yet season after season there are sweeps wherein one performer snaps up every award in sight. It is extremely rare that this happens because the performer is miles ahead of their competition (like, say, a Blanchett in Blue Jasmine effect) or because the performance is gorgeous and it's also the very last chance (like say Ledger in The Dark Knight or Boseman this year). It is more commonly an effect of a lack of imagination and groupthink. If we ran the world every acting category almost every year would be like Supporting Actress was for 2007 and Best Actress appears to be for 2020. Each awards show that arrives throws punditry into disarray again and a season can close with joy knowing several actors were honored for great work...
Early in the year (by which we mean in the last summer / early fall) it appeared that Frances McDormand might be headed for a third Best Actress win for her best work since Fargo (1996) in the Best Picture frontrunner Nomadland. Around that same time her toughest competition looked to be Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman who had excited Venice audiences and early tastemaker critics. A couple of months later there was a wave of excitement for Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom but it was quite brief, everyone quickly convinced that the film would go into the history books as the Chadwick Boseman farewell due to his untimely death, the quality of his performance, and the surprising fact that the center of gravity in August Wilson's play is not the titular character but the ambitious songwriting trumpeter that annoys her so much. Come December people were convinced Carey Mulligan was the one to beat for her avenging angel in Promising Young Woman. Critics award season pitched the "Best Actress" decision as Carey vs Frances. But on Globe night the conversation shifted again with the surprise win for Andra Day in United States vs Billie Holliday. We all woke up collectively, suddenly remembering that the Academy has never ever loved anything more than they love the biopic. What's more, within that genre, there's no subgenre they have ever loved more than the musician struggling tragically through life. Perhaps Andra Day was Oscar bound... only she wasn't SAG nominated!
And now the SAG has gone to Viola Davis. It was her sixth SAG win (they can't get enough of her) but in this particular contest she wasn't really the favourite pre-show. She performed our collective surprise over Zoom during the telecast...
After a very quick gracious speech, the show moved on. But we didn't. We could barely sleep. Who the hell is going to win the Oscar? Here are the broad outlines of the scenarios we've imagined in alphabetical order. (Apologies to Vanessa Kirby who is just happy to be nominated.)
SCENARIO 1. Voters are torn. But in the end they just can't shake off their collective addiction to the musical biopic and their endless fascination with messy neurotic musicians with difficult lives. That takes the final contest down to Andra Day vs Viola Davis. As an added bonus for their biographical addiction, they realize they get to crown the second Black Best Actress winner ever. History will be made! They know who Billie Holliday is and can even hear her voice as they mark the ballots. Some of these voters realize that Day even did her own singing but somehow still conveys Billie 'Viola lipsynched and she already has one.' they mumble, their choice already made. Andra Day wins the Oscar.
SCENARIO 2. Voters are torn. They're staring at the ballot. 'Didn't Frances just win? 'I've heard Andra Day was very good but I haven't seen it. I get that Carey Mulligan was great but that movie made me so uncomfortable'. Then they think of Viola. (Subconciously their eyes light up. It's not a biopic but they still get the familiar HAND THEM TROPHIES famous-person-playing-famous-person itch!) They're already checking their ballot box in a landslide for Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and they realize with glee how beautiful it would look to give out His & Hers Oscars again; 'It's been ages!' They forget that Viola, just like Frances, recently won an Oscar. Or remember and don't care. 'Let's make history by giving Viola two! She's always good.' Viola Davis wins the Oscar.
SCENARIO 3. Voters are torn. 'All five of these Best Actress nominees are just sensational,' they think. In they end they vote with their hearts and just go with their favourite movie of the five. The votes are still heavily divided that way but still. Best Picture heat has always counted and, hey, 'she's an icon!' they think and 'who cares if she's already won. She's Frances McDormand and I wish I was more like her.' Frances McDormand wins her third Oscar.
SCENARIO 4. Voters are torn. 'All five of these Best Actress nominees are just sensational,' they think. They start considering their options and still have trouble. 'You know what?' enough of them realize, "Frances and Viola already have Oscars." They're left to choose between Carey and Andra. Some of them haven't seen United States vs Billie Holliday. And hello, Carey Mulligan has been great forever. 'Can you believe this is only her second Oscar nomination?' That movie was so exciting!' They passionately check the box. Carey Mulligan wins the Oscar.
Make sure to vote on our Best Actress chart as to who you think should win. You can vote daily (if you clear your cache or cookies).
Reader Comments (74)
Many people smarter than I said the SAG winners would be the Oscar frontrunners, so I think Viola is the frontrunner and the likely winner.
Are the "steak eaters" and older contingents of the Academy going to be able to continue watching US vs Billie Holliday after seeing Leslie Jordan in that ridiculous wig in the very first couple of minutes of the film?
Day is fine in a very terrible film however the other Best Actress nominees bring such nuance and beautiful specificity to each of their layered performances. It's a really superb group and I truly enjoy the various award bodies giving a different actress recognition for their wonderful work this season.
If Viola were to win, she would have committed two category frauds. Her supporting win for Fences was actually LEAD and her lead win for this film would be SUPPORTING. But I guess the readers here will easily dismiss that given their love for her.
No, Jans, they will dismiss it because you're wrong. Both performances are clear leading ones.
Scenario 1 FTW. The biopic factor plus rewarding a POC lead actress will save the day. Andra Day wins the Oscar. Don't overthink it too much.
Jonathan: your take is correct.
Jonathan, in that case I'm not entirely wrong
Davis vs Mulligan with McDormand close by.
*test comment to see if moderation glitch is solved*
Ian -- i love that "dont overthink it comments" also apply to Davis winning. She won the SAG she's taking it. Don't overthink it :)
frankly don't understand everyone's overconfidence on Andra Day, sure, she has the Globe and her role is baity, but those are the only things working on her favor
only nomination for her film, mixed to poor reviews, debut performance (the last time a debut performance won actress was Marlee Matlin and before her Barbra Streisand and those happened to be nominated works in Best Picture nominees) and feels like some voters won't want to take the Globes as seriously after all the backlash the HFPA faced recently.
If the "second Black performer to win the Oscar for Best Actress" narrative is bound to happen, Viola Davis fits perfectly for it: respected and clearly beloved by the industry, the most nominated black actress in history, the "why didn't she win in 2011?" narrative still around, her role is just as baity as Day's, and having less screentime didn't hurt Nicole Kidman or Olivia Colman in their respective years. Also the idea of two black actors winning the Leading Oscars coming from the same film would make a precedent in the face of diversity
GG - Andra Day
Critics Choice - Carey Mulligan
SAG - Viola Davis
BAFTA - Kirby or McDormand
Oscars - ??
Its a truly exciting race! & nail biting to the last moment when the winner is announced. Its any one's game now & it really depends who has the late surges come voting period, which is like next week??
I wld say there actually no frontrunner now, any of them cld win, everyone has a narrative & pros/cons agst them. & you know that is kinda a good tink!!
Nobody knows notink now, everyone is pushing all kinda theories & the whole punditry is tearing their hair out!! lol
Whoever it is, we'll say, the moment it's announced, "eh, that makes sense." (Unless it's Kirby. If it's Kirby, we'll all be stunned, and maybe delighted--since she's totally deserving.)
Still hoping the best performance (Frances McDormand) wins.
Well the Viola Davis/Andra Day narrative has started:
https://twitter.com/EW/status/1379468138119565315
https://variety.com/2021/film/awards/sag-winners-2021-viola-davis-chadwick-boseman-minari-1234943247/
GTA James - PYW will win Original Screenplay
@ Dan Humphrey
If Kirby wins, I called it in my comment above. ;-)
I totally agree with angel regarding Andra Day.
Frances McDormand can win as a producer of Nomadland.
Vanessa Kirby got her big breakthrough with her nomination.
I don't know why but I can"t see Carey Mulligan winning for that role, as good as she is in it.
It's Viola Davis' time to win in Lead, she's so well-loved.
What sells me on Andra Day is that she does her own singing, and Viola Davis does not. But Rami Malek??? I know, he lip-synched. The point is, I bought Day wholeheartedly as Billie Holiday. She was that woman on stage defiantly singing "Strange Fruit," and the entire film was centered around her plight. That wasn't the case with "Ma Rainey" where Boseman was the lead and frankly, Viola was supporting. Yes, it's her debut role, and yes, the film is actively working against her at every turn, but Day still manages to overcome that with a breathtaking breakthrough performance. I have no reservations predicting Day to win the Oscar. She'll make history just like Davis would.
Working Stiff, ha I don't buy your liability of the character angle. Enough of the last decade of Best Actress have been thorny complicated characters. I think strength of films, career steam, being 'due' and personal narratives is a gumbo that will decide. "Not wanting a man" and "ravially political" won't be much of a factor, but it was fun to hear some reaching for the fifth nominee. It's only fair.
Ma Rainey was a tedious movie. Two lead characters who were mean and yelled a lot - one who killed a man for stepping on his shoe. Just another Broadway play with people yelling, and poorly directed. But this year diversity matters more than merit.
I'll say that I'm happy for any of these performances to win the Oscar.
I'm personally torn between Viola Davis and Andra Day. Davis dominates the film from the moment she gets that wonderful entrance down the staircase of the hotel. Day's singing is sensational and she finds so much depth in the quieter moments of that film.
I will be the most surprised if Frances McDormand wins. Not because her performance isn't great (it is), but because her character is so...passive in the story. I can't remember the last time a largely reactive performance won in this category.
I consulted Screen Time Central in regards to Davis. She has a little more than 26 minutes of screentime. At least 5 of those minutes are her lip synching. So it is not inconceivable that many consider it a supporting performance. The film is Levee's story. She has less screentime than Turman for instance. I personally consider her a thin Lead. Neither viewpoint is wrong.
Screen time is not really relevant (Anthony Hopkins, Patricia Neal, etc). The fact is that MA RAINEY doesn't exist without, well, Ma Rainey. He presence is narratively and thematically integral, and Levee's tragic youthful hubris doesn't make full sense without being juxtaposed with Ma's ego and professional success. Arguing for Supporting is ludicrous. There is no "both sides" here.
Davis was more lead in Fences than she was in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.
For what it's worth (info from Screen Time Central):
Boseman (Da 5 Bloods) - 12:17 / 7.88% SUPPORTING (not nominated)
Hopkins (The Silence of the Lambs) - 24:52 / 21.00% LEADING (winner)
Davis (Ma Rainey) - 26:41 / 28.36% LEADING
Davis (The Help) - 46:10 / 31.60% LEADING
Davis (Fences) - 53:32 / 38.60% SUPPORTING
Boseman (Ma Rainey) - 44:07 / 46.89% LEADING
Hopkins (The Father) - 1:05:14 / 67.29% LEADING