So ... um ... who is going to win Best Actress?
Tuesday, April 6, 2021 at 9:00AM by Nathaniel R
This is the way all awards seasons should be. Well, not the Zoom breakout rooms... but the uncertainty. There's no godly reason why sweeps should ever exist in awards season given that art is subjective. If you poll any group of people on anything you will see a vast array of opinions. Yet season after season there are sweeps wherein one performer snaps up every award in sight. It is extremely rare that this happens because the performer is miles ahead of their competition (like, say, a Blanchett in Blue Jasmine effect) or because the performance is gorgeous and it's also the very last chance (like say Ledger in The Dark Knight or Boseman this year). It is more commonly an effect of a lack of imagination and groupthink. If we ran the world every acting category almost every year would be like Supporting Actress was for 2007 and Best Actress appears to be for 2020. Each awards show that arrives throws punditry into disarray again and a season can close with joy knowing several actors were honored for great work...
Early in the year (by which we mean in the last summer / early fall) it appeared that Frances McDormand might be headed for a third Best Actress win for her best work since Fargo (1996) in the Best Picture frontrunner Nomadland. Around that same time her toughest competition looked to be Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman who had excited Venice audiences and early tastemaker critics. A couple of months later there was a wave of excitement for Viola Davis in Ma Rainey's Black Bottom but it was quite brief, everyone quickly convinced that the film would go into the history books as the Chadwick Boseman farewell due to his untimely death, the quality of his performance, and the surprising fact that the center of gravity in August Wilson's play is not the titular character but the ambitious songwriting trumpeter that annoys her so much. Come December people were convinced Carey Mulligan was the one to beat for her avenging angel in Promising Young Woman. Critics award season pitched the "Best Actress" decision as Carey vs Frances. But on Globe night the conversation shifted again with the surprise win for Andra Day in United States vs Billie Holliday. We all woke up collectively, suddenly remembering that the Academy has never ever loved anything more than they love the biopic. What's more, within that genre, there's no subgenre they have ever loved more than the musician struggling tragically through life. Perhaps Andra Day was Oscar bound... only she wasn't SAG nominated!
And now the SAG has gone to Viola Davis. It was her sixth SAG win (they can't get enough of her) but in this particular contest she wasn't really the favourite pre-show. She performed our collective surprise over Zoom during the telecast...
After a very quick gracious speech, the show moved on. But we didn't. We could barely sleep. Who the hell is going to win the Oscar? Here are the broad outlines of the scenarios we've imagined in alphabetical order. (Apologies to Vanessa Kirby who is just happy to be nominated.)
SCENARIO 1. Voters are torn. But in the end they just can't shake off their collective addiction to the musical biopic and their endless fascination with messy neurotic musicians with difficult lives. That takes the final contest down to Andra Day vs Viola Davis. As an added bonus for their biographical addiction, they realize they get to crown the second Black Best Actress winner ever. History will be made! They know who Billie Holliday is and can even hear her voice as they mark the ballots. Some of these voters realize that Day even did her own singing but somehow still conveys Billie 'Viola lipsynched and she already has one.' they mumble, their choice already made. Andra Day wins the Oscar.
SCENARIO 2. Voters are torn. They're staring at the ballot. 'Didn't Frances just win? 'I've heard Andra Day was very good but I haven't seen it. I get that Carey Mulligan was great but that movie made me so uncomfortable'. Then they think of Viola. (Subconciously their eyes light up. It's not a biopic but they still get the familiar HAND THEM TROPHIES famous-person-playing-famous-person itch!) They're already checking their ballot box in a landslide for Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom and they realize with glee how beautiful it would look to give out His & Hers Oscars again; 'It's been ages!' They forget that Viola, just like Frances, recently won an Oscar. Or remember and don't care. 'Let's make history by giving Viola two! She's always good.' Viola Davis wins the Oscar.
SCENARIO 3. Voters are torn. 'All five of these Best Actress nominees are just sensational,' they think. In they end they vote with their hearts and just go with their favourite movie of the five. The votes are still heavily divided that way but still. Best Picture heat has always counted and, hey, 'she's an icon!' they think and 'who cares if she's already won. She's Frances McDormand and I wish I was more like her.' Frances McDormand wins her third Oscar.
SCENARIO 4. Voters are torn. 'All five of these Best Actress nominees are just sensational,' they think. They start considering their options and still have trouble. 'You know what?' enough of them realize, "Frances and Viola already have Oscars." They're left to choose between Carey and Andra. Some of them haven't seen United States vs Billie Holliday. And hello, Carey Mulligan has been great forever. 'Can you believe this is only her second Oscar nomination?' That movie was so exciting!' They passionately check the box. Carey Mulligan wins the Oscar.
Make sure to vote on our Best Actress chart as to who you think should win. You can vote daily (if you clear your cache or cookies).
Reader Comments (74)
I have been holding my breathe all year for Mulligan's second nomination. I will continue holding my breathe for her Oscar win. She is one of the greatest of her generation and she will be a passion pick. Her movie over performed and this race is so wide open it is anyone's to lose (watch Kirby take the BAFTA, which is completely possible), so I'm placing bets on Mulligan. I always thought Viola would win SAG. She's such an Actor's Actress and so beloved it makes total sense. I truly think the Oscar is between Mulligan and Davis, and have for a while now.
I think the biopic factor will decide it, so my guess is Andra Day wins it.
My gut says Day > Mulligan > Davis > McDormand > Kirby.
If only Mulligan landed with BAFTA, she could've mustered some last-minute momentum. As it is, Kirby probably takes it there but still feels like the category also-ran.
Ha, love the breakdown. I am thinking it comes down to Day vs. Mulligan, but that SAG win was a shock. Definitely could be a big surprise!
With DDL winning his third so quickly after his second, I think it’s easy to see Frances winning.
However, I think Viola has a strong case. She’s incredibly strong in the film, and her character speaks to ideas that will resonate with artist broadly, but specially help to give voice to the specific experience of an artist of color.
I also think Viola has a narrative - there’s only one Black best actress winner. If anyone should be the second, it should be someone who is considered great, not an untested newly (Day). I think if she rides that narrative and the performance, she can win.
Carey is still in it, but this is only her second nom. It’s easy to see her as Glenn in 1987 here.
Agree that all of these are plausible scenarios. My current bet is it comes down to Andra and Carey and Andra takes it, but I'm hoping for Carey!
I think Vanessa has a strong chance at the BAFTA win, but even if she does win she probably doesn't have a path to Oscar. Still, would be great to see her recognized in this "spreading of the love" year.
Someone compared Viola to Jessica Lange yesterday (as in, "this person deserves an Oscar in the leading category, why not give it to her now when the competition feels weak-ish?"), and I can see it. Lange even beat Foster, who would have won her third Best Actress Oscar that year.
Even though Olivia Colman won the BAFTA for The Favorite (and Mulligan cannot), that seems to be the closest analogy to Mulligan winning here: a movie with a bunch of nominations, well-liked, but not an odds-on favorite in any one category. They might give it to her just so the movie has one big win. It helps that Davis and McDormand just won, and Day is in an underseen movie no one is talking about.
Ooh the one up in the air acting category. I can't tell if the effusive pro Carey sentiment here is throwing off my instincts. It could be her, a His and Hers acting pair in lead, or even possibly an outside chance for Frances McDormand, though the recency thing is a hurdle unless we get a good splitting of votes. Kirby's out and I just don't feel Day at the moment. But it's mostly just hunches and gut feelings right now.
Five letters: VIOLA.
She deserves a Lead Oscar.
Viola for the win!!!!!
I haven't seen all the films so just going off "buzz" and history.
1) It doesn't seem like momentum for Nomadland is so overwhelming that they would give Frances a THIRD Best Actress Trophy... even Meryl doesn't have three! And Frances' second was only 4 years ago. I doubt she gets many votes.
2) Does Andra Day really have any heat? The Globes are very random and easily star struck. There just doesn't seem to be a ton of conversation about this film or performance, and she showed up basically nowhere in the precursors.
3) So I think it comes down to Carey vs. Viola. Carey's film did better overall on nomination day, and she is a previous nominee who has never won... could be "her turn" for a "brave" performance. But Viola is increasingly recognized as an all-time great and her previous win was Supporting... could see that as well.
If I had to bet I would say Carey but I think it's 50% Carey, 35% Viola, 15% Day or Frances (sorry Vanessa).
I love close races, too! As much as I adore Carey Mulligan and PYW, from day one, I've doubted she could win. I was surprised pundits were all easily predicting her. I think PYW and her character will rub the "steak eater" and older contingent of the academy the wrong way. The movie may be too dark for them, the takedown of "nice guys" too close to home, and I can see voters unfairly writing her character off as a crazy b. (I'm already dreading the THR secret ballot pieces) I hope I am proven wrong.
Additionally, with everything happening this year, I believe there is more urgency to award a black actress the trophy. Whether it's Andra or Viola, I am very torn. I could see Andra getting it in a star is born-type moment. But Viola is so well respected, and it would be wonderful to see her claim a Best Actress trophy. I wish she'd gone for BA in 2016 with Fences.
The only thing working against Frances McDormand is that is a subtle performance. I believe in spreading the wealth but I can't think of anyone more deserving.
In scenario one, if a large number of voters are aware they will be awarding the second black Best Actress winner most will tick of Davis as the most worthy of the title. You accidentally added an extra Viola Davis wins scenario. Does Davis having two victorious scenarios mean we should predict her?
It's so incredibly rare for Best Actress to go to someone who didn't win one of the 2 Globes. Winslet in 2008 was just a category thing, so really you have to go back to McDormand in the 90's. I think it's Day's to lose, but this is a weird year.
Andra Day's win could very well be like a Marion Coltiard sort of 'star is born' kind of win. I can also see them rewarding Viola in LEAD where she always belongs (c'mon Fences was LEAD), and I can see Frances getting love as well (I can also see her being absent from the ceremony). I can also see Carey winning but less and less each day. I would DIE if the four of them somehow split and Vanessa wins.
I hope this excitement means less steamrolling actor winners in the future!
Another "this is the way all awards seasons should be" factor, for me at least, is that I loved all five performances. That just about never happens for me in any category. If I were voting, I'd pick Vanessa, because it was the trickiest, all out, you have to show just about every imaginable emotion (and some I could never imagine) performance of all of them. But in some other years, I'd substitute any of these five actresses in this category, and vote for them. They're that good.
Each have major strikes against them, some with the aging straight white guy "steak eaters" and some with the younger tech geeks -- remembering that unlike SAG, everyone votes in the actress category and the demographics are older, whiter, straighter, maler. Andra is in a terrible movie (I confess that I stopped watching half way, just wishing we could take her and her performance and drop it in a competently made movie.) So I'm wondering how far viewers will get with this film? I I did not care for Ma Rainey -- and had a similar wish, like, why can't they take this complicated, nuanced portrayal of this singer in this period and put it in a movie that is not really focused on toxic masculinity? Because I felt August Wilson was not as interested in Ma Rainey as he was in his male characters, and because of the Boseman factor, I'm wondering if (SAG notwithstanding), voters will see this as a chance to honor Boseman and overlook the character and performance that the movie somewhat overlooks, as well.
I loved Nomadland, and I can't imagine it without Frances' nuanced, grounding performance, but I think voters will see this as a director's'movie with a central performance that is more like a neutral narrator. And besides, two Oscars already that maybe voters don't think were both deserved (for the record, I do think she deserved to win for Three Billboards, but not for Fargo -- but I realize for many voters, that would be reversed). How many steak eaters will even watch Promising Young Woman (my vote for best picture of the year), never mind see it as a triumph of acting, as opposed to a triumph of screenwriting? And I can't imagine the steak eaters or tech geeks getting through the (utterly brilliant) first half hour of Pieces of a Woman. (Side note: If Shia wasn't such a damaged brand, he would belong in the supporting actor race.)
Maybe a write-in campaign for Michelle Pfeiffer?
So they all deserve to win. I predict Andra Day.
The difference is Lange was in an extremely weak category in 1994, while Davis is facing the arguably strongest lineup in years. Of course, Davis's performance is also much better than Lange's, so who knows.
I think in a normal year, this would be Andra Day's Oscar. Since she's so new, she'd have to be out there talking about the movie and "proving" to her fellow actors that she's nothing like she is in the movie and it's a real Oscar worthy performance.
But this isn't a normal year so I think the voters would rather go with someone that they know is not a flash in the pan but can deliver, well, always. Frances feels almost over-rewarded, so I think it comes down to Carey Mulligan or Viola Davis. It's anyone's guess as to which way they'll go. Both Carey and Viola feel overdue in a way. Carey is the typical choice - the right age, the right look, etc. But they might be itching to prove that they can recognize true overwhelming talent when they see it.
"Apologies to Vanessa Kirby who is just happy to be nominated."
LOL I bet many of us said the same about Andra Day at the Golden Globes and she ended up winning, so I wouldn't count Kirby out.
Could it actually come down to which of the five characters/actresses is the most “likable” (i.e., non-threatening to white supremacist patriarchy)? Because in that case the ranking of these Complicated Women would be:
1. Martha (onscreen tragedy gives her the edge) played by a 30-something breakthrough British star
2. Fern (on her own and doesn't want a man) played by a 60-something established American star
3. Billie Holiday (bisexual, Black, artist, political) played by a 30-something breakthrough African American star
4. Ma Rainey (basically tied with Billie) played by a 50-something established African American star
5. Cassandra (gives no fucks, “man-hating,” contemporary—-so no hiding behind "history") played by a 30-something established British star
Kirby wins.
(But I’m not really feeling this scenario.)
Andra Day checks so many boxes, AND is the least interesting to me, so my money is on her.
^Lange was so lucky that Orion went bankrupt and 'Blue Sky' sat on the shelf for three years. She would not have won Best Actress for that film in any other year that decade.
Davis is my current prediction, but I would not be surprised by Day, Mulligan, or McDormand, either. In a race this fractured, nearly anything can happen.
I'm not a big fan of Viola's performance, though I absolutely love her work. When I saw teh film I though this could have easily been a supporting role. I would like Mulligan to win.
Praying for Carey. Will be happy for any of them.
Love Carey but I got the feeling she's the type of actress they'll like to reward in the future, when she's older, and in a "classic" performance like the one she did in The Dig.
I think this is one of the weaker categories in years, especially if you factor in McDormand's two prior wins. We've had a torrent of strong Best Actress categories recently... 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 were incredibly strong. But mileages vary!
My guess is Mulligan. I hear what people are saying about the "steak eaters," but I wonder if there aren't more of what I'd call the "anti-steak eaters" -- people who are eager for feminist themes to emerge and who will thus overlook some of the parts that critics find too on-the-nose. (I loved the film, but scenes like the one with Connie Britton as a corrupt academic administrator read like #MeToo talking points.)
In a split-voting year, a plurality will get the job done. The Academy has expanded its ranks to make itself younger and more diverse, and I think an enthusiastic contingent of people on PYW's wavelength will push Mulligan over the finish line.
“All you need to win an Oscar is the right compelling narrative”
The most nominated Black actress at the Oscars becomes the most awarded Black actress in Oscar history as well as the second Black Best Actress winner sounds mighty compelling to me.
Viola also has Ted Sarandos/Netflix money funding her campaign.
No matter who wins, I think the Oscar will be going to a talented actress for a strong performance. The last truly bad winner was Jennifer Lawrence for 'Silver Linings Playbook' in 2012--hope Academy members keep making good choices in the years to come.
Let's get some youth into the Oscars and crown Carey Mulligan the winner. She is young and argiuably the best in show. Viola Davis belongs in supporting actress.
I'm extremely excited by this category (and Best Supporting Actress) because I genuinely love the rare occasion when Oscar races are unpredictable. I wouldn't call 2020 a weak year for Best Actress, but this is a lineup of mostly PERFORMERS I enjoy versus PERFORMANCES I enjoy.
I loved Carey Mulligan's work in Promising Young Woman, but there are so many strikes against her winning (weak precursor support, "unlikeable" character, very un-Oscary film.) I'd vote for her, but I would be (happily) surprised to see her win.
Pieces of a Woman is a hard watch that didn't entirely work for me, but Vanessa Kirby is so good in it. She's also great in The World to Come and was fantastic on the first two series of The Crown, so I'd be fine if Oscar passed this time, with the hope she's nominated again in future.
I'm lukewarm on Nomadland, but it is the Best Picture favorite and Frances is great in it. But she just won three years ago and it doesn't feel like its time to give her a third.
Love Viola Davis, didn't love her Ma Rainey performance which felt hammy.
Would have loved to see Andra Day's performance in a much better film. Impressive that she's a newbie and is so compelling to watch, but the writing and directing in United States vs Billie Holliday is almost actively trying to sabotage her.
This year is a fluke! Once the world returns to normal and award shows all happen on top of one another, it will go back to the way it was with one person sweeping. I think the way these awards rolled out this year helped all of them to be recognized. I do not think award bodies cared what others award dories were doing or how they voted... no one was watching.
Jessica Lange's win for Blue Sky is one of the laziest and most abhorrent decisions the Academy has made in the Best Actress category. Granted, give or take a Jo March, the selections they made that year were pretty awful too.
1994 was a great year for actressing, and as much as I love Winona Ryder, not even her best role was nominated that year.
Mulligan won't win because she scares the sh*t out of people (as does the film, warts and all). That sharp-toothed comedy all dolled up in black will get its due one day.
But it won't be Oscar day.
I'm pretty eh on everyone else. Mulligan's performance is the only one that did anything, both technically and in service to the character, that stood out in a way that merits 'best'.
She knocked it right out of the stratosphere.
Also, what a great evolution for Mulligan to double-feature this with An Education.
Don't overthink this. This is now Viola's for the taking.
because this race is so unpredictable this year, i still maintain that Carey Mulligan will win. oscar voters LOVED this movie, and they're a bigger and different pool than the awards bodies we've seen. the film is up for Best Picture and Best Director, nods neither of which were widely predicted before the nominations...but Oscar voters went in whole-hog on it, and i think those same voters who loved the movie loved it largely because of Mulligan's performance. i do think Viola and Frances, good as they are, have won too recently, and Day's movie is unwatchably bad. so i think we're in for one more (glorious) "surprise" with Best Actress this year when Carey wins the Oscar.
I don't think there's a contingent of "anti-steak eaters" who are fired up about #MeToo and the PYW message, but are not engaged with the "representation" conversation that suggests Day or Davis.
If you're a woke progressive in Hollywood I don't see how that automatically leads you to Mulligan. If anything, it seems like that thinking would lead you away from a conventional pretty blonde Best Actress winner in these times.
Especially when you can vote for PYW's themes/message/creator in Original Screenplay.
I think PYW is winning Best Screenplay and Best Actress.
I think for some Academy voters, they will vote for Viola solely because 1) she’s Viola Davis and is one of the actors actor 2) she was robbed of Best Actress Trophy back in 2011 and this is their best chance in years to finally give her that 3) the trend of rewarding young and upcoming actress (in late 20s and 30s) has been slowed down for the past decade. I think she will edge out by the actor branch and Carey Mulligan will get the most votes from other branches (but not enough to win).
I'm still hoping for Carey Mulligan to win for PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN. That performance is too ferocious to ignore.
If this category used a preferential ballot like Best Picture, I’d be predicting Frances McDormand. I imagine even if she wouldn’t get the most #1 votes, she’d be a LOT of people’s #2 pick, and in a field this competitive, that would matter.
But I still have a feeling it’ll be Carey Mulligan, mainly because the votes seem split enough that it’ll likely come down to who has the most passion behind them. Carey would probably be on the bottom of a lot of ballots in a preferential vote, but since that’s not how it works, I can see Viola, Andra, and Frances splitting the vote enough to where the contingency of Promising Young Woman fans gets her the win.
The final curveball of this race could be if Vanessa Kirby wins the BAFTA, in which case I genuinely have no clue, and it’ll be the most wide open Best Actress race in forever.
rdf: Carey Mulligan's only five months younger than Andra Day...
I'm praying for SCENARIO 4, Carey does something truly phenomenal in PYW. But I think it will be SCENARIO 2: they will give the Oscar to a black actress by choosing the more respected and established one, who doesn't have yet a lead oscar
Maybe Viola does take this. Nowadays voters throw their Oscars to best picture and adjacent contenders. I thought Carey would be PWY’s bone but maybe it’s screenplay. Then what does Chicago 7 win - picture?
Day has that biopic and troubled artist role but Viola has that too and in a stronger overall contender. Even wins like Monster, Judy, La Vie En Rose, Iron Lady had hair makeup nominations too. Billie just has the one like The Wife.
I supported Brenda Blethyn in 1997 and Sally Hawkins in 2018, so I have no qualms about going all in on support for Frances McDormand this year. Viola Davis deserves a leading role and, if Netflix keeps adapting August Wilson plays, she may keep going by playing Aunt Ester, but I hope that she gets a new role written for her at some point soon. Carey Mulligan was overlooked so many times for her one word titled projects (Drive, Shame, Suffragette, Mudbound, and Wildlife) that I hope that this is now also the beginning of more nominations for her. And Kirby and Day were just lucky to be recognized for their great work in projects otherwise ignored. So, to keep things interesting, I'm hoping it's Kirby with the home advantage at BAFTA and then McDormand to wrap things up at the Spirit Awards and then the Oscars.
I’m now currently leaning towards predicting Day or Davis. Mulligan is phenomenal but that character has major ‘Alex Forrest’ vibes that will undoubtedly make some voters uncomfortable. McDormand deserves it but her last win was probably too recent and they like to spread the wealth. But I still think it’s an extremely rare/genuine 4-way race.
This is like musical chairs:
Critic Choice Awards: Carey Mulligan
Golden Globes: Andra Day
SAG: Viola Davis
BAFTA: Vanessa Kirby?
Oscar: Frances McDormand
Very democratic
There is no one in this race who is an unworthy nominee, they are all excellent in their roles and I wouldn't be truly disappointed in any any of them winning. This is a seemingly new concept, huh. Mulligan or Davis would be esp alright, but Day and Kirby are also both so good. And McDormand, you know, she doesn't NEED a third Oscar but it wouldn't be terrible if it happened. I'm just chill about all of it.
Tough call this year. My instinct is still leaning towards Mulligan, but with less conviction than last week.
I didn't expect the directors branch to nominate Emerald Fennell for Director. They're usually tough on women and actors directing. That indicates to me that there's more support for PYW than expected. Giving Mulligan the nod might be a way of making sure PYW goes home with something.