Which movies will squeeze into the last two slots of the Best Picture lineup?
Thursday, January 20, 2022 at 10:26AM by Nathaniel R
Time for Oscar chart updates. And, the way we see it there are two relatively "open" slots in Best Picture with five films either showing some form of strength at the moment or feeling like they might happen. But which will prevail?
PICTURE
If we were still in a sliding scale Best Picture situation as we were at this time last year we'd only be predicting 8 films for the top honor, and in this order: All locked up -- The Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Belfast, King Richard, Dune, Don't Look Up; The Probablies - CODA and Licorice Pizza. But the Academy has ruled that we're back to a full top ten list like we had (briefly) in 2009 and 2010. So there are two spots open...
SAG results, which might be reflective of general industry mood and might not (the nominating committee changes each year and SAG-AFTRA is getting larger and larger and thus less and less traditional industry types) suggest that House of Gucci (three nominations including a surprise bid for Outstanding Cast) and Being the Ricardos (two lead nominations) are hot with actors. Actors make up the largest voting body in the Academy so that's important to consider no matter what you think of the films (which have both had it semi-rough with critics. On the other hand, AMPAS has traditionally leaned slightly more towards critical acclaim than SAG has so we think that the newly released Tragedy of Macbeth and (very surprisingly) Japan's Drive My Car are having considerable upward trajectory just before voting (which begins on January 27th). And then there's tick tick...BOOM! which has passionate fans but we suspect will be a no show (except in Actor) since Netflix can't receive ALL the nominations and they've already got two sure things in the Best Picture category.
DIRECTOR
We don't think the directors branch will be quite as adventurous as in recent years (the precursor season -- including critics awards -- hasn't instilled a lot of confidence that people are thinking about a wide swath of films this year) so it might surprise you that we're not predicting Ryusuke Hamaguchi for Drive My Car. While critics groups have made a strong effort to convince the Academy that there is only one international feature worth watching from their screener pile, we think past AMPAS fandom for Almodóvar, Sorrentino, Farhadi, and even Larraín could all theoretically get in the way muddying the issue enough that Hamaguchi (a relatively new filmmaker and thus previously unknown to the mainstream American industry) will have to settle for International Film frontrunner status. Nevertheless he's definitely lept way up in the chart given the critical advocacy that's happening in precursor season.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The WGA doesn't announce their nominations until the 27th but they won't help us much anyway since their strict eligibility rules knock out a lot of viable contenders (same thing in Adapted). So click on over to the chart to see what we're thinking. You'll notice there are no locks. I think you can still make an argument for anything in the top ten given past Oscar favor and this year's buzz, though they're still listed in order of perceived likelihood.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Yesterday the USC Scripter nominations were announced. Since those are prizes from the USC Library, they typically focus on literary adaptations, so some potential biggies like West Side Story (stage musical adaptation), CODA (French film remake) are missing. They also don't honor foreign-language work so Drive My Car is absent. In short, since all three of those are very much in the running, the Scripter list announcement doesn't mean a great deal. It is however very bad news for book and play adaptations like The Humans, The Last Duel, Cyrano, and House of Gucci though we didn't suspect any of those were truly in the running anyway. Zola, adapted from a tweet thread, is way too cool for the US Scripters so it's not getting anywhere near the Oscars either (sigh).
Reader Comments (14)
With 4 Best Pictures and only 1 year this decade with no nominees, 2 years with 2 nominees, are we underestimating Searchlight Pictures?
I think the screenplay race is really interesting. I'm not sure I see King Richard making it in. It feels more like a Ford vs Ferrari type film, where it gets into the top categroy, but fails to make it in other key categories outside of ones which it's really strong in (in this case, acting). I just don't think that it's the the type of "crowd pleaser" that will impress the writing branch.
I also wonder about Sorkin. His trajectory with Being the Ricardos feels so odd, and I could easily see the academy skipping it. Especially if they fail to recognize it in picture. What's odd about the screenplay is that it feels structurally less ambitious than the Social Network and Trial, even though it's a fairly complicated biopic that's constantly giving us insight to the Desi/Lucille union.
I think Coda is a pretty strong, all around, contender and that Apple is handling that campaign well. I suspect it will slip into the writing race.
I hope Almodovar gets in. His screenplay is shockingly good, even though I could see some voters writing this off as too melodramatic. I do think Mike Mills and Farhadi could slip into the 4th and 5th slots.
@ Lenard W
Searchlight, hmm...
Summer of Soul is pretty locked for a doc nomination, but it's going to be a fight to the finish; Nightmare Alley and The French Dispatch look pretty strong in the crafts categories, at least nomination-wise; Tammy Faye seems assured of two nominations max. But I don't see a Best Picture winner on that slate (Licorice the best shot at a nomination).
As of right now I’m predicting Ryusuke Hamaguchi will make it into the Best Director lineup but Drive My Car won’t get in for Best Picture. I know a lone director spot doesn’t seem likely with a field of 10 Best Picture nominees, but it’s just a hunch that it’s more in the directors branch’s wheelhouse than the Academy overall (though I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it also got in for Adapted Screenplay).
For those last two Best Pictures spots, I’m starting to feel increasingly confident that Being the Ricardos will be one of them. The last one, though…it could go so many ways. At the moment I would guess tick, tick…BOOM! but I have a lot of doubt about it. Specifically, I can’t help but feel that there will be voters who make a conscious effort to not over-nominate Netflix because of the state that the movie theater business is currently in. And I think they’ll think two Netflix movies up for Best Picture is more than enough (not to mention an Amazon original, assuming Being the Ricardos does make it in). But still…I think it’s equally possible that being on Netflix could help it too just for the exposure. So I really don’t know.
I have a feeling Branagh will be snubbed in directing in favor Hamaguchi. That's my big prediction this year.
i would be shocked if Drive My Car broke into Best Picture. it's an extremely cerebral, slowly-moving film...and this voting body is not particularly intelligent. the first 40 minutes in particular aren't exactly breakneck. it's a superb film, but i can imagine many people bowing out before the film starts gaining power in hours two and three.
i think Farhadi or Almodovar stand a shot at that fifth slot if PTA doesn't get it. their films are much more accessible and so beautifully made, and an hour shorter. either could get the completely surprisingly nod that Pawel Pawlikowski got for Cold War a few years back.
Nathaniel, always love reading your punditry!
EricB - I'm more bullish on Drive My Car's BP chances than you, mainly because the love for it seems to run so deep; I could see enough #1 votes to squeeze it in. You make valid points, but all I can say is if Malick's TREE OF LIFE could make it in (I love the film, but I'm surprised that many voters were able to get past the dinosaurs), I see no reason DMC can't. Though Malick probably has more die-hard fans than Hamaguchi.
i think Drive my car and Being the Ricardos, after all this one is more likely to score in Actress and Screenplay
Gucci is giving Bombshell teas, only getting acting and some tech nod like Makeup and hairstyling
Drive my car and Being the Ricardos are the 9th and 10th slots, I think
I still have a feeling C'MON, C'MON might emerge here with a BP nod and one, maybe two others.
I think House of Gucci will make it in to Best Picture. It didn't just perform well with SAG, it's performed well with all the tech guilds and the BAFTA long lists. It has broad industry support.
Just want to clarify the future rules - when the Academy mandates their 'diversity' mandate for Best Picture nominees, wouldn't Licorice Pizza, CODA, Belfast, House of Gucci and The Power of the Dog almost be immediately disqualified?
@ TOM
The Power of the Dog and CODA might pass the standards, not sure about the others.
Tom & Working Stiff -- people have been way too paranoid about those rules. There are all sorts of ways to pass since diversity and inclusion doesn't just refer to the race of your actors. It also refers to gender and sexuality and "underrepresented groups" both onscreen and off and within your publicity teams and within the studio we expained it in this post.
but to quickly reiterate you have to have diversity in at least 2 of these 4 areas.
✅ ONSCREEN REPRESENTATION (the cast/the characters)
✅ CREATIVE LEADERSHIP (key department heads)
✅ INDUSTRY ACCESS AND OPPORTUNITIES (the stuff we'll never hear about like internships and such)
✅ AUDIENCE DEVELOPMENT (the publicists/distributors/etc)
POWER OF THE DOG and CODA for example easily clear "onscreen representation" even though they're mostly white casts since the films are about gay men and disabled people respectively. I dont know much about CODA behind the scenes but POWER OF THE DOG passes 3 of those 4 markers