How many of the spring/summer hits will Oscar recognize?
Monday, July 11, 2022 at 3:28PM by Nathaniel R
How many of the year's critically embraced / audience approved movies from the first half of the year will Oscar recognize? Savvy awards fans know that if you open very late you dont necessarily need audiences (or even the critics to a lesser extent) because the voters haven't had time to process the various responses. The only "influence" then becomes the publicity and the awards campaigns themselves, which is what the distributors prefer. That way they control the messaging.
If you open earlier than the second half of December, it's a completely different story. Critical and audience response completely matter as your film takes on various consensus markers like "surprise hit" or "flop" or "respected but didn't connect". All sorts of things happen that unconsciously or consciously affect voting. In short, both critical and audience approval have to be there in order to generate enthusiasm that will justify a campaign later in the year. In that sense we have only four movies that have opened at this writing in 2022 that we must take seriously for prizes at year's end. They are...
- THE BATMAN
- ELVIS
- EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE...
- TOP GUN MAVERICK
While The Northman, Benediction, After Yang and other fine films with notable elements can theoretically compete it also feels like wishful-to-the-point-of-delusional thinking given statistics which point to pre October films being uncommon in most of the main categories. (Animated features are a different topic altogether and can come out at any time of year. We're mostly talking Best Picture and the live-action categories.)
THE FIRST CONTENDER
The Batman was another franchise blockbuster but that's become the name of Hollywood's game (if not yet the Oscar's game). Though it's not quite common knowledge among civilians, the Academy has statistically taken Batman seriously long before the superhero genre dominated all of Hollywood. There have been 8 previous solo live-action Batman films and between them they've garnered 15 nominations and 3 wins. Despite that strong track record the latest adventure of the Dark Knight might still have a tough time with voters. Rightly or wrongly, it will have to compete mentally with all the other superhero movies given the steady output of the genre now. Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 and Black Panther 2 could all muddy the waters to a small extent, or to a large extent if the latter is very well-received. Best Picture now feels like a pipe dream despite the almost crazed response back in March when the epic-length noir opened. But realistically The Batman could stay competitive in craft categories, especially Cinematography and Score which were the two areas where this installment received the most consistent and feverish praise.
THE BOX OFFICE PHENOMENON
Top Gun Maverick will likely have it much easier for a couple of reasons. First, is that there's been nothing like it in terms of success in 2022. A Batman film being an enormous grosser is 100% expected and, thus, not really a story. A legacy sequel to a non-sci-fi / superhero franchise that's been dormat for 36 years growing legs at the box office and becoming the year's most popular film is quite a different achievement altogether. Plus it's a "Dad film" and those can play with Oscar even if critical praise is on the reserved side and the film only a modest hits (like Ford v Ferrari to cite one recent example). The original Top Gun (1986) received 4 Oscar nominations and won for Best Original Song. Three of its four categories still exist and it could very easily place in those again: Film Editing, Sound, and Original Song. But at this point Paramount Pictures has every reason to really go for it and seek out the big ticket nominations. It'll never win Best Picture but a nomination doesn't seem all that far-fetched, does it? Especially since Top Gun Maverick is already being mythologized as "The Film That Brought Adult Audiences Back to Theaters."
THE UNLIKELY SLEEPER SENSATION
Everything Everywhere All At Once, like Maverick, is something of a shocking anomaly in terms of success. Nobody expected an eccentric comic sci-fi genre-busting film from The Daniels, whose debut Swiss Army Man grossed a respectable amount but never crossed over, to become one of the year's most beloved and successful pictures. But it did just that becoming a bonafide word-of-mouth sensation (remember when those were common before automatic attendance of franchises-only took over?). It's also the biggest hit of distributor A24's entire history despite being hard to describe, partially in Cantonese and Mandarin, and very silly (in a good way) and focused on a woman in her late 50s. Conventional wisdom, which is thankfully wrong, would have guessed that that film would have stalled out somewhere aroud $10 million and been seen as an arthouse success only. Though Oscar voters are notoriously resistant to genre films -- and EEAAO is several genres they don't love all at once -- with the right campaign and reminders of the real love for this film floating around, it could theoretically win less stodgy voters over. It feels like a 50/50 proposition at this point but there's no reason for A24 not to really go for it. Think of the bragging rights if they secure a Best Picture and Best Actress nomination for something this wild?
THE GLITTERY HIP-SHAKING BIOPIC
Finally we come to Elvis. Though Baz Luhrmann's musical biopic isn't as outright "respected" as the other three given that it's polarizing, that might not be much of a problem for it. People forget that Moulin Rouge! (2001), Baz Luhrmann's most beloved film if not his most successful, was plenty polarizing upon release Oscar embraced it to the tune of 8 nominations (though they infamously left Baz out of the director shortlist). The divisiveness of the film will keep people talking. Plus it has real personality which is no small feat given that films within this genre (the biopic) regularly arrive without any personality at all !!!
Whether or not Elvis becomes a major player at the Oscars is unknowable at this moment of course. A lot depends on its competition later in the year, of course, and whether or not it develops any legs with moviegoers. But it absolutely won't hurt that it's a memorable film springing from the subgenre Oscar arguably loves more than any other: biopics about famous musicians. The most likely nominations at this writing are for Austin Butler's star-making turn in Best Actor, the sound work (given the memorable performance setpieces and the seamless blending of vocals), and Catherine Martin's costumes and art direction. (Regarding the latter, Martin has been nominated six times and won four Oscars and she's only worked on seven films; That's quite a track record.) That's four nominations that it has a great shot at regardless of whether it conjures Best Picture heat... which is saying a lot this early!
Oscar Charts *ALL FRESHLY UPDATED*
Reader Comments (4)
EEAAO seems like the type of film that could make it in Screenplay with a really strong and savvy campaign. I think Yeoh is a possibility too, but only if other end of year leads falter. Given the genre constraints of her film, she'll need to make precursors and take home some critics pizes. Even then, it will be a hurdle. Lupita missed for US as a previous winner, with a film that grossed well north of 100 million dollars, a SAG nomination, 2nd place at LAFCA, and a win at NYFCC. Hopefully she pulls through. But in addition to genre, it's no secret that the academy often overlooks Asian lead actresses. There has never been an (openly) east Asian Best Actress nominee.
I think it's easy to see Top Gun getting something like a sound nomination.
We're past the halfway point of the year and I can't believe we only have like 15 of the eventual 100+ nominations.
Slightly OT - I get excited when the new winners get added to the top banners, and I believe this is the first time since that I adore all four performances on one banner (supporting actress has had a good run!)
I expect far more for EEAAO. I can't imagine it misses Visual Effects, and I think it could win. Sound and Score are definitely in play. I think we'll know from Director and Supporting Actor if they really liked it, and I wouldn't count out Supporting Actress (even twice). The question is if voters will make it to the second half of the film, because if they do, I honestly think they'll fall for it. The backdrop is crazy but it's ultimately a family-centered tear jerker.