Emmy Predictions: Drama Categories
Sunday, July 2, 2023 at 2:00PM 
The White Lotus, now competing as a drama this year
This is a very competitive year for drama at the Emmys. Last year, Succession and The White Lotus scored fourteen and eight acting nominations, respectively, and The Handmaid’s Tale, which wasn’t eligible last year, picked up ten the year before that. If they show up in similar numbers this year, that accounts for thirty-two spots, and there are only forty acting nominees in total! Changes in voting rules mean that it’s unlikely shows will dominate quite so much, but the first two of those are still extremely popular. And while other awards bodies have largely abandoned The Handmaid’s Tale, it’s worth noting that Emmy voters sometimes stick by shows longer (see Killing Eve).
Exactly three of last year’s nominees for Best Drama Series are back in contention, and they’re all expected to show up in many places: Succession, Better Call Saul, and Yellowjackets...
It’s the final season for the first two and the second for the latter. The Handmaid’s Tale, The Crown, and The Mandalorian are eligible again, and they’ve never missed. The only other past nominees on the ballot this time are The Boys, which scored a bid for its second season with no accompanying acting nods, and Westworld, which was largely omitted in its third season and now has one last shot for its fourth and final round.
Olivia Cooke and Emma D'Arcy in House of the Dragon
THE FRESHMAN CLASS
Expected heavy hitters among the first season contenders are The Last of Us, House of the Dragon, and Andor, though it’s unclear just how well any of them will do. Other possibilities include Bad Sisters and 1923, along with the series that spawned that prequel, Yellowstone, which always seems on the verge of breaking through but has yet to do so. The Old Man and The Diplomat could also score in a few places. Read on for predictions and more commentary!
BEST DRAMA SERIES
Better Call Saul
The Crown
The Handmaid’s Tale
House of the Dragon
The Last of Us
Succession
The White Lotus
Yellowjackets
Can Matthew Rhys earn a repeat bid for a cancelled show?
BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Paddy Considine (House of the Dragon)
Brian Cox (Succession)
Kieran Culkin (Succession)
Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us)
Jeremy Strong (Succession)
Other Possibilities: Matthew Rhys (Perry Mason) was nominated for the first season of his now-cancelled series, and watch out also for Bryan Cranston (Your Honor), who failed to merit a bid for the first season of what was then considered a limited series. Jeff Bridges (The Old Man) and Diego Luna (Andor) could also easily show up here.
Is Melanie Lynskey this year's frontrunner?
BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Emma D’Arcy (House of the Dragon)
Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets)
Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us)
Sarah Snook (Succession)
Imelda Staunton (The Crown)
Other Possibilities: Watch out here for Lynskey’s costars to join her, with Sophie Nélisse (Yellowjackets) likeliest despite her being less known than another actress who had a strong season, Juliette Lewis (Yellowjackets). It’s never smart to underestimate Helen Mirren (1923), though I have my doubts about how well that show will do. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) is also a threat given her Emmy bids for The Americans, and it would be a real shame if Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters) missed out.
Alan Ruck is the only Roy sibling without an Emmy nomination
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
F. Murray Abraham (The White Lotus)
Nicholas Braun (Succession)
Giancarlo Esposito (Better Call Saul)
Michael Imperioli (The White Lotus)
Matthew Macfadyen (Succession)
Alexander Skarsgard (Succession)
Matt Smith (House of the Dragon)
Bradley Whitford (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Other Possibilities: This category is overstuffed with contenders from the same shows! Will Sharpe (The White Lotus), Theo James (The White Lotus), Tom Hollander (The White Lotus), Adam DiMarco (The White Lotus), and Leo Woodall (The White Lotus) are all possibilities, as are previous nominees Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul), and O-T Fagbenle (The Handmaid’s Tale), Max Minghella (The Handmaid’s Tale). It’s hard to imagine Alan Ruck (Succession) missing out as his show ends, and watch out also for category regular John Lithgow (The Old Man) and Jonathan Pryce (The Crown). I’d be very happy to see Elijah Wood (Yellowjackets) surprise. It’s also worth noting that Jeffrey Wright (Westworld) has never missed for this part, though I think his show has virtually now buzz and isn’t even available to stream on its original platform.
Six-time Emmy champ Carol Burnett's last Emmy win was in 1997 for Mad About You
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Carol Burnett (Better Call Saul)
Jennifer Coolidge (The White Lotus)
Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown)
Lesley Manville (The Crown)
Aubrey Plaza (The White Lotus)
Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul)
Christina Ricci (Yellowjackets)
Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Other Possibilities: This category is also overflowing with potential, with three past nominees who have never missed for their roles, Thandiwe Newton (Westworld), Samira Wiley (The Handmaid’s Tale), and Ann Dowd (The Handmaid’s Tale) though it feels unlikely that they'd make the cut this year. Madeline Brewer (The Handmaid’s Tale) and J. Smith-Cameron (Succession) were both nominated before and could easily return, and it feels like Justin Lupe (Succession) might have enough momentum to secure a nomination for her ultra-popular series. Then there’s Meghann Fahy (The White Lotus), Sabrina Impaccatiore (The White Lotus), Beatrice Grannò (The White Lotus), Simona Tabasco (The White Lotus), and Haley Lu Richardson (The White Lotus), plus the very impressive trio of Olivia Cooke (House of the Dragon), Milly Alcock (House of the Dragon), and Emily Carey (House of the Dragon).
Nick Offerman and Murray Bartlett in The Last of Us (their ep is also up for directing & writing)
BEST GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Murray Bartlett (The Last of Us)
Bryan Cranston (Better Call Saul)
Giancarlo Esposito (The Mandalorian)
Justin Kirk (Succession)
Nick Offerman (The Last of Us)
Aaron Paul (Better Call Saul)
Other Possibilities: This category might be a celebration of a standout episode of one show and two stars of a previously-beloved show returning to reprise their roles on a prequel. There’s also past nominees James Cromwell (Succession), Arian Moayed (Succession), Mark Margolis (Better Call Saul), and Michael McKean (Better Call Saul), previously-unhonored standouts like Tony Dalton (Better Call Saul) and Jon Gries (The White Lotus), and other memorable performers like Christopher Lloyd (The Mandalorian) and Andy Serkis (Andor).
Natasha McElhone with Jonathan Pryce in The Crown
BEST GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
Claire Foy (The Crown)
Mckenna Grace (The Handmaid’s Tale)
Ashley Johnson (The Last of Us)
Cherry Jones (Succession)
Melanie Lynskey (The Last of Us)
Harriet Walter (Succession)
Other Possibilities: This category could feature four past nominees, two of them winners, plus Hope Davis (Succession) as another previous contender. Betsy Brandt (Better Call Saul) might be a nostalgic choice given her return to her series’ prequel, and Vanessa Kirby (The Crown) could follow in the footsteps of her costar Foy to earn additional recognition for a memorable flashback scene. Other possibilities include Hiam Abbass (Succession), Natalie Gold (Succession), Natascha McElhone (The Crown), Fiona Shaw (Andor), Ella Purnell (Yellowjackets), Nico Parker (The Last of Us), Storm Reid (The Last of Us), and Anna Torv (The Last of Us).
That fateful election episode "America Decides" of Succession
BEST DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
"The Prick" (Bad Sisters)
"Annus Horribilis" (The Crown)
"The Heirs of the Dragon" (House of the Dragon)
"Long, Long Time" (The Last of Us)
"America Decides" (Succession)
"Connor’s Wedding" (Succession)
"Arriverderci" (The White Lotus)
How well will Andor do, and is writing its best shot?
BEST WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES
"The Prick" (Bad Sisters)
"Saul Gone" (Better Call Saul)
"Gunpowder" (The Crown)
"Long, Long Time" (The Last of Us)
"Connor’s Wedding" (Succession)
"Arriverderci" (The White Lotus)
"Edible Complex" (Yellowjackets)
For directing and writing, it’s very possible that one or two shows could dominate, like The Crown or Succession, which have four and three directing submissions, respectively, but have each chosen just one installment for writing. The Last of Us also picked just one episode to submit for both directing and writing, while other shows like Better Call Saul, House of the Dragon, and The Mandalorian chose a handful for each. Watch out for The Boys and Yellowjackets to show up again in writing, and for that movie-length ninth episode of season four of Stranger Things in directing. Andor might also make the cut for “One Way Out.”
There’s so much to process here. Which contenders are we underestimating, or overestimating?
Emmys, Punditry, Succession, TV, The Last of Us, The White Lotus, Yellowjackets
Reader Comments (15)
Have y'all seen Salma (fucking) Hayek in the "Joan is Awful" ep of BLACK MIRROR? What an absolute screaming delight. If JLC can win an Oscar for playing a total kook then Hayek deserves an Emmy for her equally off-the-wall role!
I would be so much more interested in the drama categories at the Emmys if they weren't so unwilling to let past favourites go. I realize House of Dragons is a new show but like Breaking Bad to Better Call Saul... Emmy finds ways of just continuing to love what they've always loved ;) Thanks to The Last of Us they'll be forced to honor some fresh blood though. But i think that's probably the only newbie that stands much of a chance.
@Wae Mest
It's called Over Acting!!
Hayek and the rest of the most recent BLACK MIRROR season won't be eligible until next year's Emmys.
As long as Melanie Lynskey gets her win this year after losing to the horrible performance last year, I’ll be happy.
Excited to see your thoughts on the miniseries/tv movie categories. Hoping for a Niecy win and at least a Rachel Weisz nom, if not a win!!
Under Supporting Actor, you list Michael Imperioli in Succession. Are you predicting Imperioli in The White Lotus or another actor from Succession?
Sarah Snook and Bella Ramsey are the only ones on your list I want to see for a BA nom. I think Eve Hewson is definitely a lead in Bad Sisters and deserves some love. Both Sarah Lancashire and James Norton knocked my socks off in the last season of Happy Valley but that show is not eligible for Emmy consideration.
My other fav performances in Drama:
Nick Offerman, The Last of Us
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses
Daryl McCormack, Bad Sisters
Harriet Walter, Succession (also so good in Ted Lasso and Silo)
Justin Kirk, Succession AND Perry Mason
Chris Chalk, Perry Mason
@Finbar it happens at least once a year to me! Imperioli in White Lotus - just typed Succession too many times!
@Nathaniel I agree with you to a degree but not about Better Call Saul. Though it's been nominated for 46 Emmys, it hasn't won any. Breaking Bad won 16 over the course of its run, so it's disappointing that it hasn't been matched given that it's just as good in some ways and a completely different show. I wish the wealth could be spread more because I feel like we're just going to see Succession dominate here. It is terrific but it would still be nice to see other stuff win.
@Pam I would love a double Kirk nomination but I don't think he and Chalk have much of a chance for Perry Mason. I'd be most excited to see Juliet Rylance nominated.
Good grief that's a deep field for Supporting Actress, Drama.
And it's so, so annoying that HBO has taken down Westworld.
@ScottC @AbeF What Warner/Discovery has done to the HBO brand is egregious. In any other time, they would be proudly streaming all of their shows, past and present. And promoting sleeper hits like Perry Mason or Somebody, Somewhere, which should have had much larger audiences. To me, HBO isn't only about The Sopranos, GOT, and Succession.
I'm already mad at the Emmys and they haven't announced the nominees. I hate that White Lotus is considered a drama.
How seriously can we really get about this when they literally approve of the argument that The Bear is a comedy?
Meghann Fahy needs to be nominated for TWLS2. She was sensational!
I don't think Claire Foy will make it in. She's well liked, but she had less to do than she did in her Season 4 guest spot... and that was a 3 minute performance. People just take pictures of her this time.
Keri Russell is in. Way above Emma D’Arcy and some of the others in that category. She was on a well watched Netflix show, has an emmy pedigree, and is doing press. She gives such a class leading drama actress performance, that I think she could fairly easily win. I also think she gives the kind of performance that will do well at the winter awards.
I think Johnathan Pryce is in, ahead of Imperioli.
Justine Lupe and Alan Ruck for "Succession", pleeeeeaase!!!!!