Oscar Volley: Venice and Cannes loom over Best Director
Sunday, December 29, 2024 at 5:00PM Here's Nathaniel R and Elisa Giudici on the Best Director race...
ANORA, Sean Baker | © NEON
NATHANIEL: Elisa, my far away friend, I miss attending festivals with you. One of the greatest joys of film festivals, as opposed to normal moviegoing / movie coverage, is that it's a departure. It's both more intimate (you're choosing a bunch of films to watch alone even if you're discussing them later with strangers and friends) and more expansive: generally speaking you see films from all over the world (if you're doing it right) and it's more auteur-focused. The latter brings us to today's volley topic: BEST DIRECTOR...
I know from your Venice and Cannes coverage (thank you thank you) that you're a fan of the current works by Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Coralie Fargeat (The Substance), and Sean Baker (Anora) who are all very much in the hunt for Best Director nominations, but also the films of Maura Delpero (Vermiglio), Halijna Reijn (Babygirl), Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door), Luca Guadagnino (Queer), and Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine As Light), who are feeling far less likely to find favor in this particular category but are still in the Oscar hunt.
Is it surprising to you that so many of your 2024 festival favourites are, Wicked aside of course, still leading so much of the awards conversation?
THE ROOM NEXT DOOR, Pedro Almodóvar | © Sony Pictures Classics
ELISA: Our Venetian days are sorely missed by me as well, dear Nathaniel. It’s remarkable how revisiting festival films in the more grounded setting of a local cinema can completely shift your perspective. For example, this year, I had that experience with Bertrand Bonello’s The Beast. I thought it was good in Venice, but on a second viewing, it came close to feeling like a masterpiece.
To your question—fittingly viewed through this lens—I often try to temper my excitement about certain festival standouts entering Awards Season, even when they’re undeniably deserving. I try to remind myself that the festival setting is, in many ways, a bubble.
So, what’s different this year? For starters, there’s no single frontrunner dominating the race. While a handful of strong contenders are collecting accolades, the “one to beat” changes depending on the prize. This has made it one of the most unpredictable years in recent memory. A big reason for this is the cluster of exceptionally solid films campaigning strategically. The frontrunners all seem to have nailed their exposure window—no one has made any glaring missteps or fallen so far behind as to be out of contention.
THE SUBSTANCE, Coralie Fargeat | © MUBI
What’s also notable is the genuine presence of international titles in the conversation, thanks in part to the advocacy—and dare I say, the intercession—of certain U.S. distributors. That’s likely why so many “festival circuit” directors are among the finalists: after all, the selection of the best international films often stems directly from major festivals.
I largely agree with your first- and second-tier distinctions, though I’d highlight Payal Kapadia as someone to watch. Alongside Coralie Fargeat, she could draw significant support from those eager to champion female directors.
Brady Corbet and Edward Berger strike me as the two directors whose style and approach make their direction the most visibly evident—the kind of shots, framing, and camera movements that practically demand attention. Jacques Audiard’s film is filled with audacious choices that risk dividing audiences, yet it has performed spectacularly so far. The same goes for Coralie Fargeat. Who would’ve thought, back at Cannes, that two such unconventional films could have a real shot in this category?
CONCLAVE, Edward Berger | © Focus Features
NATHANIEL: I agree with what you're saying about Edward Berger. When Conclave was over I thought to myself 'beach read' in that on some level it's disposable pulp entertainment that you probably shouldn't take as seriously as its taking itself. But Berger is so forceful about framing and general craftmanship that it feels more epic than it actually is. In short he's elevating material that is kind of questionable at base level. I would argue that Coralie Fargeat also falls into this category but is more 'honest' about it. The Substance is trash but good trash...Prestige trash by sheer force of craft/will.
I'm simplifying all this I'm fully aware!
ELISA: As for other names, I find it curious how Luca Guadagnino seems almost out of contention, despite delivering the visually bold and showy Challengers. Like Pablo Larraín, he often guides his actors and collaborators to nominations but is himself frequently overlooked. It’s baffling—particularly with Challengers, where the direction, editing, and cinematography are anything but subtle.
I’m curious about your thoughts on the more mainstream directors—or at least those less tied to the festival circuit. Why is Denis Villeneuve struggling so much to get traction for Dune Part Two? Do you think Jon M. Chu has a realistic chance of landing a nomination for Wicked? He’s generating significant enthusiasm Stateside, but over here, both critics and the box office seem lukewarm, if not outright dismissive.
CHALLENGERS, Luca Guadagnino | © MGM
NATHANIEL: So many good questions. I don't quite know what to make of Luca Guadagnino as a director and I'm guessing Hollywood feels the same. I never know how I'll react to one of his movies and I've been everywhere from inject-this-movie-into-my-veins (I Am Love) to big fandom (Call Me By Your Name) to "why am I watching this?" (Bones and All, Suspiria) frustration. His career is all over the place and he is so prolific and constantly announcing new projects. I find it dizzying and I dont always know why he's interested in what he's interested in. Like WHY OH WHY does he want to keep remaking classics (Suspiria, the now I presume aborted Auntie Mame, and the latest and most perplexing project: American Psycho) when his original stuff is so vibrant!? It baffles me. I really enjoyed Challengers earlier this year and admire some elements of Queer, but whenever someone is that prolific I always find myself wondering "would Film A be even better and more tightly focused if the director hadn't been in preproduction on Film B and promoting Film C and also recutting Film D* while he was making it?"
* I'm reeling from the news of a 195 minute version of A Bigger Splash (2016) which is just swell at 125 minutes. Leave it be, Luca!
Maybe that's a me projection problem and not a Guadagnino problem. I do think Guadagnino will eventually fall into Oscar favor but it won't be through remaking a classic or from hallucinating in the jungles with your kept boy.
And to your final question: the lack of traction for Denis Villeneuve is simple to me and it's this -- they're waiting for Dune Part Three to see if he can stick the landing.
WICKED, Jon M. Chu | © Universal Pictures
Jon M. Chu is a trickier subject. Wicked is going to get a ton of nominations, so why isn't he locked up? You could argue that he has the same problem as Villeneuve (half a film) but he also has the other problem of being a director who hasn't built up momentum at being taken seriously. Yes he's behind one massive hit prior to this (Crazy Rich Asians) but that was a comedy. In fact, all of his previous films are in the kind of genres that Oscar doesn't care much about.
The director's branch is hard to read on the regular. At times they just nominate whoever is directing the films with the most Best Picture heat, as if they can't be bothered with passion votes. Other years they are ALL about passion votes and getting excited about auteurs on fringes of the race. His other problem is that there's a strong bias against directors of musicals -- note that Rob Marshall lost for Best Picture winner Chicago and Baz Lurhmann and Tom Hooper weren't nominated for Moulin Rouge! or Les Miserables, respectively, despite plentiful nominations for those pictures. I've always chalked that up to homophobia/sexism (i.e. musicals perceived as a "feminine" genre) because it certainly isn't a logical bias. You often hear that they like epics in direction because of the degree of difficulty. Is there any genre that's harder to pull off well than the musical genre? I'd argue that there isn't.
But you need a question -- what if this is another 2012 and the directors branch really says "screw the precursors!" and goes crazy. Who gets in then?
ELISA: If they go bold, I think we could see a surge of international names among those already mentioned. You said getting a nomination in this category with a musical is probably the hardest thing to achieve, though I’d argue that certain genres like sci-fi or horror face similarly steep odds. Emilia Pérez is a musical, but one far less comforting and much more provocative than Wicked. This category is notoriously averse to daring choices or flamboyant tones; usually, those deserving recognition here but lacking, shall we say, a “restrained” quality, end up in screenplay categories instead, right?
That said, this has been a year when many films have proudly embraced their lack of subtlety, flaunting excess as their hallmark. This might have an influence on the nominations, potentially reflecting this trend.
ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT, Payal Kapadia | © Janus Films
On the other hand, they might swing the opposite way and lean toward safer names or “demure” films as a counterbalance. If that happens, more conventional picks like James Mangold for A Complete Unknown could take precedence over the favorites we’ve been discussing. In this context, Payal Kapadia might emerge as a wildcard -- All We Imagine as Light is a film that achieves a deeply emotional resonance without ever raising its voice, even in its direction. The Globes’ recognition of the film might have prompted more voters to seek it out than we’d expect.
I don’t think it’s highly probable, but I hope this year brings some bold decisions and strong choices. Unfortunately, this category tends to be one of the more conservative ones. Do you think we’ve overlooked any other significant contenders?
NATHANIEL: You're right that musicals are not, by any stretch, Oscar's least favorite genre. But I do think the directors branch has something against them. It's interesting what you're saying about bold versus demure pictures. I've always thought it was the opposite with the directors but maybe I was equating it to extroverted / introverted pictures which is not quite the same thing. I do think the directors branch WANTS extroversion in directing in the same way that the acting branch loves MOST acting. But maybe they like the loud efforts best when they don't also come with eccentric personality?
EMILIA PÉREZ, Jacques Audiard | © Netflix
Anyway, this is getting messy as an argument but what I'm trying to say is ...we're both right!!! And these two arguments find their embodiment in Edward Berger who is definitely extroverted in his direction but far more staid in bold personality, than say, Audiard! Could Conclave gain heat after nominations, emerging as the safe/consensus film that everyone can enjoy and like on some level (even if dispassionately) given that the field will be filled with more polarizing Best Picture choices.
Let's do predictions. Here's where I'm at right now.
Locked and could win
Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
Jacques Audiard - Emilia Pérez
Edward Berger - Conclave
Getting nervous about...
Sean Baker - Anora. Everyone thinks he's in but could he be the surprise 'snub'? Maybe I am just needlessly worried because I have loved him so hard since Starlet (2012)
5th slot which is anyone's guess
RaMell Ross - Nickel Boys
Potential Spoilers
Mangold, Chu, Fargeat, Villeneuve... and I'm guessing in that order
I can't really see it happening at this point but their names have been floated here and there all season
Almodovar, Rasoulof, Fehlbaum, Kapadia, Salles
Longshot I fear
Ridley Scott - Gladiator II. It's not that Oscar voters have been sentimental about him -- he's still Oscarless, not even an Honorary! -- but he is 87 years old now and his Best Picture sequel is very much in the conversation even if it doesn't deserve to be.
What say you, Elisa? That fifth slot is a real wildcard. It could be so many people. But I'm guessing it's Ross. I don't understand the praise, to be honest, but I'm also not deaf and that praise is deafening. I personally found Nickel Boys POV filming far more alienating than immersive, and so I thought it didn't work. Remember how much everyone hated this technique with Hardcore Henry (2015) but now people suddenly find it genius. I realize it's deployed for far different intent -- again I'm simplifying outloud!
NICKEL BOYS, RaMell Ross | © Amazon MGM Studios
ELISA: Your paragraph brilliantly explains the difference: yes, they love bold, attention-grabbing direction, let’s say a bold take—but on a more classic, less extravagant subject. This year, the category feels so unpredictable that I wouldn’t lock anyone in, not even Brady Corbet—who, in this case, is a bit like your Sean Baker situation. By the midpoint of The Brutalist, I was already thinking: “Alright, but I need to see him holding that statuette.”
I agree with you on the three “safest” picks, but I wouldn’t completely rule out the possibility of The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, OR Anora underperforming in a very unexpected way, leading to a snub here. Nickel Boys still doesn’t have a release date here, so I’m out of the loop on that one.
But the enthusiasm for Wicked… mhhhhm. In the end, the point is simple: the more people see your movie, the better your chances, right?
I’ll say: Corbet | Audiard | Baker | Berger and… Chu.
It’s not the fifth slot I’m hoping for, but… my risky guess is that it's between Chu and Fargeat.
THE BRUTALIST, Brady Corbet | © A24
OTHER VOLLEYS:
Reader Comments (8)
"But Berger is so forceful about framing and general craftmanship that it feels more epic than it actually is. In short he's elevating material that is kind of questionable at base level."
And if the viewer is not smart he could think that Conclave is a good movie. That screenplay is a shame. 15 minutes from the beginning: who we will be the New Pope? The conservative Italian? The Homophobic african? The sweet and pure cardinal from Kabul that nobody knows? Sorry The Silence of the Lambs, this is such a thriller!
If Conclave gets even a nomination for the screenplay for me it's worst than Coda winning best picture
"I never know how I'll react to one of his movies and I've been everywhere from inject-this-movie-into-my-veins (I Am Love) to big fandom (Call Me By Your Name) to "why am I watching this?" (Bones and All, Suspiria) frustration. "
It's my same struggle with Guadagnino. He's one of the best living director and 2 of 3 of his projects are based on bad material. It's a mistery.
"I've always chalked that up to homophobia/sexism (i.e. musicals perceived as a "feminine" genre) because it certainly isn't a logical bias. You often hear that they like epics in direction because of the degree of difficulty. Is there any genre that's harder to pull off well than the musical genre? I'd argue that there isn't."
This is the only explication I want to take for good. I've read some comments even here on Thefilmexperience from people that probably watched another movie or didn't loved something about Erivo that they watched on Tik Tok. There are some movies, like Maestro, that become in a certain way an "internet doomed". This could be an interesting topic for an article "Why folks hate in chours a good movie".
"Berger is so forceful about framing and general craftmanship that it feels more epic than it actually is. In short he's elevating material that is kind of questionable at base level."
To me, Conclave would've ultimately been better if Berger had been more upfront about some of the contrivances and silliness, if he had made a "dumber" movie. As it is, it just feels like the screenwriter and director are pulling in different directions. That's not bad direction from Berger, it's more like... wrong direction.
"Universal’s Wicked finished the weekend with a global cume of $634.4 million to pass up Mamma Mia! ($611.4 million) and become the top-grossing stage musical adaptation of all time, not adjusted for inflation." (The Hollywood Reporter)
Or did you mean specifically Italy?
Why oh why would Audiard be nominated for the absolute farrago that is EMILIA PÉREZ? This film isn't even particularly liked by critics *or* audiences. Is this the most baffling awards season run for a movie in modern history???
If I had to lay it on the line, instinctively, I' d say:
Corbet
Berger
Audiard
Almodóvar
Rasoulof
Why?
Corbet and Berget are locks and undeniable.
I think Audiard can be a risky choice, but THE risky choice of the year, instead of Fargeat, for example.
I also think they won't ignore Almodóvar in his first English Language Film. He made a primorous movie.
And... can anyone resist to Rasoulof saga? It seems very strong to be ignored, especially in political times like the present.
Sadly, Baker could be the snub of the year, like Celine Song last year.
In other way, Baker, Fargeat and Mangold can be embraced.
My wishful thinking: Guagadnino, for "Challengers", with a unusual nomination à la Arthur Penn in “Alice’s Restaurant” and Charles Crichton in “A Fish Called Wanda".
I will be disappointed if Berger doesn’t get nominated. Like Guadagnino with Challengers and to some extent Baker with Anora, he managed to make a thoroughly entertaining, original movie for adults*, and the public responded. As I get older and movies drift more and more toward family-oriented IP, I am even more grateful for these films.
(*Yes, I know it’s based on a book.)
Regarding Villeneuve and Chu, I honestly think that perhaps this branch is extremely skeptical of blockbusters - just as it was with Gerwig last year. Despite what I said above, I would certainly have nominated Gerwig and Villeneuve because I do not believe those films could have been made as brilliantly by anyone else. (I have some doubts about Chu, though I love his two previous films - I wonder if he had as much freedom as Gerwig or Villeneuve.)
Frank Zappa: Of that $634.4 million for Wicked, $424.5 million was made domestically (U.S. and Canada) and only a little over $210 million in other countries, which means it has made about 2/3 of its worldwide box office domestically. That does show a lack of international support for the movie...
I'm starting to wonder if The Substance peaked too early in the race. I was starting to feel confident about a Coralie Fargeat director nomination a couple weeks ago, but now I'm not even convinced she'll make it for screenplay. I hope I'm proven wrong, but I can see a scenario where Margaret Qualley (it feels like she's picking up momentum at the right time) and Makeup (duh) are the only nominations at the Oscars.