Monday
Mar112024
Which acting nominee will be back again quickly?
Monday, March 11, 2024 at 8:00PM by Nathaniel R
It's become something of a tradition here at TFE to guess which just-celebrated actor will be back soonest for another Oscar season. Last year at this time you (collectively) guessed that Cate Blanchett (29%), Michelle Williams (15%), Paul Mescal (15%) and Barry Keoghan (9%) would be the quickest to return. Nobody returned immediately but of those four only Barry Keoghan (Saltburn) seemed like a real possibility this time around. But his film and even his performance were divisive so that happens.
Time to vote again, which of the 20 stars recently celebrated will be back shortly? Make your case in the comments section.
Reader Comments (16)
I didn’t look to see what anyone has coming up.
But I voted for Mulligan because she works a lot at a pretty high level, and it seems like the AMPAS has finally caught up to her as a default nominee (took about a decade!). Even when she missed for She Said I think she got pretty close.
I could actually see all five of the Best Actress nominees back soon with the right role tbh! There's no one that to me feels unlikely to be back.
Soonest? Hm. Maybe Emma or Carey. Maybe even Lily tbh. I def see her back in the future. Would love to see her win for a better role.
Best Actor... I can see Cillian and Colman back soonest. Then maybe Bradley.
Best Supporting Actress... Honestly, I could see Da'Vine getting an afterglow nomination for the right role. The only other person I see back is Emily Blunt, but then again w her Academy track record, who knows. Maybe now that she's been invited, they won't have a problem nominating her.
As for Supporting Actor... I see Ryan Gosling back soon. That's about it.
This is always a tricky question because who the Academy will invite back isn't usually who you'd expect. When Melissa McCarthy was nominated for Bridesmaids, my first thought was "Thank goodness she got in for this one because this was probably her only shot as a comedienne." I felt the same way about obscure Australian character actress Jacki Weaver getting a surprise nomination for Animal Kingdom. But lo and behold, they were both nominated a second time.
Meanwhile, big stars who you'd think would be afforded multiple chances at Oscar glory – Marlene Dietrich, Robert Mitchum, Ava Gardner, Kathleen Turner, Harrison Ford, Samuel L. Jackson – never got nominated for a competitive Oscar a second time. I'm sure a lot of us thought it was only a matter of time until performers like Jake Gyllenhaal and Imelda Staunton would come back for a second nomination... but they haven't, yet.
So I guess what I'm saying is, the one person out of these twenty who will be back the fastest will very likely not be the "obvious" choice.
@Robert that’s a great point, and to add to your list of Weaver and McCarthy, I thought Melissa Leo’s nomination for Frozen River was a great career cap for her, a one-off that will be a trivia question 20 years from now. Then she came back a few years later and won the damn thing. You never know. An Oscar nom can change the course of someone’s career. And on the opposite end of the spectrum, I thought Lupita Nyong’o and Alicia Vikander would become perennial players in prestige projects and racking up Oscar noms every couple years, but that hasn’t panned out (yet).
I think Emma Stone is the obvious answer for the prompt here. Other than the fact that she has a lot of nominations to her name already and top directors love working with her, POOR THINGS kind of cemented her status as the best actress of her generation, and that status will give her notice even if the performances aren’t up to par or are in a film that would normally fly under the radar. That being said, there are so many A-listers in this lineup that I think a decent amount of them will be nominated again. Please Hollywood give Ryan Gosling prestige roles again!!
I’d say De Niro’s next project Alto Knights, directed by Barry Levinson (Rain Man) and written by Nicholas Pileggi (Goodfellas), gives the two time Oscar winner a shot at another statue in 2025. In the Fall release, De Niro plays dual roles of rival mob bosses in the 1950s.
Assuming they all keep working at the level of this year:
Best Actor
Colman Domingo (in a Nat King Cole biopic he's also directing and writing + several other high-profile projects)
Best Actress
Sandra Hüller (two very interesting upcoming projects),
but more realistically: Emma Stone (see Lanthimos below)
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt (but she seems to be $tuck in genre purgatory)
Best Supporting Actor
Ryan Gosling or Robert De Niro (as Finbar mentioned)
Best Director
Yorgos Lanthimos
At TIFF 2023, there were 2 Colman Domingo movies, “Rustin” and “Sing Sing”. I didn’t see “Sing Sing” but it was enthusiastically received. It’s finished and ready to go, unlike projects that are in still in progress, which is why I’m guessing it might be the soonest of the 20 nominees to come back.
Colman Domingo was charming on the campaign trail this past season. It’s hard to get that first nomination, but once an actor does, they are on the mental list of possible candidates.
Although both Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt together in “The Fall Guy” look very appealing, if the academy is in the mood for a comedy. Blunt would be more likely, as I’m guessing an actress in a comedy is more likely than an actor.
I said Mescal last year and he was at least in the conversation this year so I wasn't too crazy!
I think with regards to what movies will be out this year, I think Emma Stone and Colman Domingo are very strong contenders.
Realistically it’s Colman Domingo and Cillian Murphy with Sing Sing and Small Things Like These both coming out this year, and Emma has another Yorgos project coming out this year as well.
I think it's Lily. She's got a killer leading role in the adaptation of the brilliant Japanese novel The Memory Police, penned by Charlie Kaufman and directed by Reed Morano (of The Handmaid's Tale).
I believe Emma will be back literally this year. She has another Lanthimos movie!
The confidence in Emma Stone as a future Oscars juggernaut (not just here, but in all corners of the internet) is kind of perplexing to me. She could just as easily become a Sally Field type who isn't nominated for years because they feel they've given her enough. That even happened to Tom Hanks, who seemed like the King of Hollywood (though it was after a couple of post-Forrest Gump nominations).
She does have another Lanthimos movie, but it has a big cast, and there's no guarantee she will be the standout over someone like Hong Chau or even that it will hit with the Oscars (remember how many of us were confident in Joy after American Hustle?).
I picked Mulligan as she is on a bit of role of stellar performances and great films.
Cooper will be back,they can't ignore him for a win forever.
Huller seems likely too,maybe a Lesley Manville type supporting role will do it.
I'd love for Foster and Bening to be back but i'm very doubtful.
Domingo has been warmly embraced despite his duff movie.
Downey Jr and Murphy are 1 and done.
It's up to the role,the timing,the competition and that cannot be predicted.
I like Barry Levinson, but he hasn't had a film get serious Oscar attention since Wag the Dog in 1997. I'm doubtful DeNiro gets in. I also think the Academy, and the press in general, like DeNiro when he's out of gangster mode.
I think the academy will also turn away from Emma Stone in more Yorgos fair. Not only does she have multiple nominations for his films, but now she has a win. I suspect her next nomination will be for something that feels different for her (e.g., a biopic, playing a mom or a divorcee).
Oddly enough I think Colman will be back with Sing Sing. He earned a lot of good will this year, and while it's rare for Black actors not named Denzel or Morgan to get multiple lead nominations, that film has an obvious narrative.
I actually think Sterling K Brown has the juice to get another nomination. But, not with his upcoming roles. He's well liked, and I think if he has a solid supporting role in a topline BP contender, he could get in and win. He has a lot of goodwill from his TV work.
Carey and Emily feel like they'll be back in the next 3 years. I think it just depends on their choices, but they also seem like the type of actresses who can get the right projects. Carey, especially, seems to be at a good moment of awards attention for her films right now.
I hope that Bill Nighy and Jeffery Wright can do a picture together. They feel like classic "we love your career" one and done nominations, but they have the talent to make it happen.
I'll just note that it's very very hard for Black actresses to get a second nomination. The only one's who have done it are megastars: Angela Bassett, Whoppi Goldberg (the first to do it), Viola Davis, and Octavia Spencer. Let's hope Da'Vine and especially Danielle can buck that trend.
I wanna vote for Andrew Scott but then realise tt he was cruelly snubbed.
I hope he get some Oscar loves in future.
Based on word from SXSW and last year's TIFF Colmon Domingo looks extremely likely to be nominated for SING SING at next year's Oscars.