Oscar Punditry: Who Will Be Our Surprise Acting Nominee and Who Could Still Be Snubbed?

By: Christopher James

Kristen Stewart looking for where her SAG nomination went.The SAG Nominations sure threw a lot of people’s Oscar predictions upside down. One can always expect SAG to throw in a major curveball or two (call it the Sarah Silverman in I Smile Back effect). However, few could’ve predicted that former frontrunner Kristen Stewart would be snubbed for her role as Princess Diana in Spencer. It was almost as surprising to see Aunjanue Ellis miss for King Richard, especially when the movie made it into Outstanding Cast!

As surprising as it all was, we now have a lot of answers (rather than guesswork) as to who the major players are in Oscar's acting races since the Globes have already announced their winners, the Critics Choice nominations have long been out, and we've also seen the BAFTA longlist. We can use math and past Oscar patterns with these precursors to determine who the acting nominees might be this year...

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Best Picture Nominees - Who's Up? Who's Down?

by Christopher James

Is Nomadland still looking like the clear winner for Best Picture?

Oscar nomination morning changes everything. What it takes to be nominated for an Oscar and win an Oscar are very different. As we enter this new phase for the Oscars, who is best set up for success on April 25th? The eight Best Picture nominees were all the most nominated movies of the year. Mank led with ten nominations. The rest of the nominees all had relatively good days, each earning six nominations except for Promising Young Woman, which received five nominations. Among non-Best Picture nominees, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom led with five nominations and News of the World with four nominations.

With the Oscar mainly coalescing around the eight Best Picture movies, which of them benefitted? Were any movies disappointments, despite a Best Picture nomination? Can anything beat current frontrunner Nomadland?

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Aaron Sorkin at the Oscars

by Cláudio Alves

With The Trial of the Chicago 7 streaming on Netflix, one of the season's strongest awards contenders is now widely available. Even in times of pandemic and one of the weirdest Oscar races ever, it feels like a safe bet to rely on AMPAS to shower the movie with gold. The Academy is known to love an inspirational true story and Sorkin's sophomore directorial effort fits the bill. Some would argue it does this too emphatically, choosing formulaic drama over probing political critique and structuring the narrative around Tom Hayden's redemption to the detriment of the other historical figures.

Whatever faults the movie has, such matters are unlikely to undermine what already feels like a sterling awards narrative. This is a picture of political repression and revolutionary ideals that reflects and comments on our present time. Its themes are as urgent as ever. Furthermore, the Academy has long shown they are keen on Sorkin's brand of self-righteous garrulousness, and almost all of his movies have received Oscar nominations. With that in mind, let's reminisce about the filmography of Aaron Sorkin and its presence at the Academy Awards…

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Chart Updates Complete

UPDATED CHARTS 
INDEX | PICTURE | DIRECTOR
ACTRESS | ACTOR | SUPP' ACTRESS | SUPP' ACTOR | 
SCREENPLAYS | VISUAL | SOUND | 
ANIMATED & DOCUMENTARY | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

The shorts categories will be added soon and we'll allow ourselves one final update for last minute predictions this next weekend before the nominations are announced. 

Enjoy the Golden Globes tonight and we'll have coverage thereafter as fast as we can manage! 

 

Chart Updates - All Acting Categories

Is it us or are the four of the acting races murkier than they usually would be during the week of Oscar voting? We chalk this up to a bit less precursor uniformity between Critics Choice, Globes, SAG nods, and the regional critical consensus. On the other hand that regional critical consensus has been very pronounced with a clear lineup of winners that go like so: Parasite/Bong Joon Ho / Nyongo / Driver / Dern / Pitt. But what we're dealing with right now is the nomination game which is far more complex than "who wins".

BEST ACTRESS - Six women are still very much in the mix and it's quite difficult to guess who will be left out. Passion suggests that Cynthia Erivo or Charlize Theron would be in danger of the "snub" but on the other hand you're not often the snubbee if you're the one doing the biographical role... especially if there's mimicry. For now we've opted to have Saoirse Ronan be the odd woman out but that doesn't feel right either given the very current groundswell of love for that picture. At any rate we think it's between the six listed on the chart with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) and Awkwafina (The Farewell) staring to look like impossible dreams in this final decision week...

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