9 Days 'til Nominations (Globe Predictions)
Sunday, January 16, 2011 at 1:00PM The countdown is progressing. Today's Topic: Golden Globe Predictions. (We'll be live-blogging starting with the arrivals 'round about 6:30 PMish EST)
So without further ado. Some predictions. We're predicting them in the order with which they appear on the Golden Globe site so as to save typing time!
Best Motion Picture - Drama
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Should Win: The Social Network
Will Win: I think it's going to be The Social Network but the Globes are hard to predict since they aren't always that worried about what Oscar might pick (yay! -- votes ≠ predictions. Or shouldn't). So I suppose we could see an upset from The King's Speech or even The Fighter?
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Halle Berry – Frankie and Alice
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Should Win: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole (there, I said it).
Will Win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan. She's just the kind of star people like to throw gold at. This will even be her second Globe since she was the surprise winner for Closer (2004). Plus, she's just terrific in her movie and being terrific in your movie never hurts (though it doesn't always help) come awards season.
Unrelated Gripe: Can I say again how IRRITATING it is that the makeup for this movie is not winning awards? It's even fun to draw or to torment your kids with at home.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King's Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter
Should Win: I'm all about the youngish leading men this year so I'd be thrilled if this was a surprise and went to Eisenberg or Gosling. Or even Franco which would be just like the Globes except that...
Will Win: Colin Firth in The King's Speech is a Helen Mirren The Queen style lock for everything. Royalty Porn forever with awards groups, you know? Which is why his BFCA speech about it being a real competition was silly. Everyone knows it's not a competition during some years.
'Best' Motion Picture Other Than Drama Because We Are Silly And Didn't Even Try To Look At Comedies This Year Even Though There Were Plenty of Good Ones
Alice in Wonderland
Burlesque
The Kids Are All Right
Red
The Tourist
Will Win/Should Win: The Kids Are All Right should have in the bag unless the Globes total freakout in the nomination portion of this season and in this category indicates that they're off their meds in which case they'll choose their worst winner of all time. I dare not even type it...
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Anne Hathaway – Love & Other Drugs
Angelina Jolie – The Tourist
Julianne Moore – The Kids Are All Right
Emma Stone – Easy A
Should Win: In the traditional sense of "Comedy" --which this category rarely focuses on -- I think Emma Stone is an entirely deserving winner here. But since The Bening is here... (even though it's more of a dramatic performance than a comedic one (within a dramedy) The Bening!
Will Win: Annette Bening.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy Or Musical
Johnny Depp – Alice in Wonderland
Johnny Depp – The Tourist
Paul Giamatti – Barney's Version
Jake Gyllenhaal - Love & Other Drugs
Kevin Spacey - Casino Jack
Will Win: Tough to say actually.It might be double-dipping Depp (who the Globes love -- 10 nominations -- but rarely award: only one win). It might be Giamatti (if they're suddenly serious about the category). It might be Spacey (if he's been shaking hands, thought TRIVIA ALERT: He's never won a Globe. Not even for American Beauty). I predicted Depp for the Gold Derby polling of pundits but at the last second I'm guessing Spacey or Gyllenhaal. And going with (gulp) Gyllenhaal. Am I crazy? I'm doing it just because WHO THE HELL KNOWS.
I'm Dying to Know: Who do YOU think will win? Am I right that any win (other than Depp-Tourist) seems plausible?
Best Performance by an Actress In A Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King's Speech
Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom
I'm So Proud of Them: This is the only supporting category anywhere (and maybe even for several years) in which every nominee is actually acting within a truthfully bonafide traditional "supporting" role.
Should Win: Jacki Weaver Animal Kingdom (my interview)
Will Win: This category is where the Globes, rather like Oscar, are willing to surprise and vote with their heart or their star-lust. The momentum is with Leo after her BFCA win but I'm guessing Amy Adams.
Best Performance by an Actor In A Huge Supporting or Co-Lead Role in a Motion Picture
Christian Bale – The Fighter
Michael Douglas – Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Geoffrey Rush – The King's Speech
Should/Will Win: Christian Bale for The Fighter. But IF Bale is going to lose anywhere it's going to be here and to Michael Douglas. But I still think it's going to be Bale.
Best Animated Feature Film
Despicable Me
How To Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Tangled
Toy Story 3
Should Win: How To Train Your Dragon -my affection 'splained here.
Will Win: Toy Story 3. But that's awesome too so yay!
Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful (Mexico, Spain)
The Concert (France)
The Edge (Russia)
I Am Love (Italy)
In A Better World (Denmark)
Should/Will Win: I'm just going to go out on a limb and say that it'll be I Am Love picking up its only major prize of the season. (But my head says this is silly and I shoulda predicted Biutiful on account of the upcoming Oscars.
Best Director - Motion Picture
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hooper – The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan – Inception
David O. Russell – The Fighter
Should/Will Win: David Fincher, The Social Network
But... I'ma be pissed if David O. Russell (The Fighter) doesn't convert this nom to an Oscar nomination. None of these 5 men did more to elevate what they started out with in terms of concept and material.
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Simon Beaufoy, Danny Boyle - 127 Hours
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko - The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler - The King's Speech
Aaron Sorkin - The Social Network
Should/Will Win: The Social Network. Since they only have one screenplay category (unlike the Oscars) this is where The King's Speech can't win... even if it surpries to win Best Picture.
Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Alexandre Desplat - The King's Speech
Danny Elfman - Alice in Wonderland
A. R. Rahman - 127 Hours
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross - The Social Network
Hans Zimmer - Inception
Should Win: The Social Network
Will Win: I'm guessing The King's Speech for some reason. But maybe it'll be Inception?
Best Original Song - Motion Picture
"Bound To You" – Burlesque
"Coming Home" – Country Strong
"I See The Light" – Tangled
"There's A Place For Us" – The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Voyage Of The Dawn Treader
"You Haven't Seen The Last Of Me" – Burlesque
Will Win: "You Haven't Seen The Last of Me"... I think. Though I don't get why they have this category since there's no musical performances during the show itself.
YOUR PREDICTIONS??? Do you want to hang out on any particular limb?
Golden Globes, precursor awards
Reader Comments (41)
"Should Win: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole"
A M E N
I'm going with Giamatti for Comedy, even if the last three winners for that Globe were all sexy men (giving the edge to Gyllenhaal). I also predicted Geoffrey Rush for supporting actor because...well, I just don't know. Because they'll like The King's Speech, I think, even giving it the Drama award. The last couple of winners for Drama have been love stories, and even though Bertie and Lionel aren't romantic, there's still a love story there.
If I weren't attending a watching party at my friend's house, I would totally destroy my television if Alice in Wonderland wins over The Kids Are All Right.
And I certainly hope Depp doesn't win this year, since he really doesn't deserve to win for this kind of crap just because they didn't give it to him when Pirates came out (he should've won the Oscar if you ask me)
I hope Gyllenhaal takes home a Globe! His performance in "Love & Other Drugs" is funny, charismatic, and heartfelt. I can't say that about any of the other nominees in that category. Plus, shouldn't we continue to encourage him to disrobe by awarding him for it? ;)
Everyone says Bening is a lock for Best Actress (Comedy)... am I nuts to think that Emma Stone winning isn't only plausible, but a distinct possibility? As you astutely point out, Bening (though great) is much more dramatic. I'm going out on a limb to say Emma Stone will win. And it's so nice to see you saying Kidman should win! It is the one movie I've seen multiple times in 2010 and can't forget, largely due to Kidman. My fingers are crossed for an out of the blue win to help her build some momentum.
In my opinion, I think Kidman should take it here and at the Oscars and I could never call myself a Kidman fan.
Best Comedy Actor? I think it's pretty safe to count Jake out too.
I have my arms and legs crossed for I Am Love and "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" as those will probably be the only pleasant surprises of the night.
I can't help but agree with you, Nat. Nicole Kidman in 'Rabbit Hole' is by far the best of the 5 (although I think Michelle Williams is quite good as well.) And I loved Natalie Portman in 'Black Swan'. Tough category all around. I love good years for actresses!!!
I agree that Leo may not win the Globe, and i'm thinking Adams, but I think there could also be a (Very) supriseing win for Kunis (Crazy?), but actually, it could go any way. Excited for this one.
I still think its possible that Moore could win best Comedy Actress, or even Stone could pull through.
For Comedy Actor, gee, no idea. Could go to any of them. Right now I'm thinking Spacey, but I'm basing that off absolutly nothing.
I think Inception wins Score, since its not gonna win anything else.
Also, compleylt agree, whythe hell is Black swan not winning any make-up awards. I feel like it souldbe winning costumes as well, since thyre actually used thematically (Nina in white/pink, Lily in black, the coats Nina wears to cover up her scratches, etc) and not just to look good (which they do).
NICOLE KIDMAN ALL THE WAY! & for Supp. Actress Dale Dick...oups! not even nominated. These people don't know what there doing!
NAR -- should we reward him for that? Why yes. Why yes we should ;)
Broooke - the weird thign about Black Swan and costumes is that if it's oscar nominated Amy Westcott gets the nomination but technically i don't understand why the nomination doesn't go to BOTH Amy westcott and Rodarte (who did the performance wear). It should be a two-person nomination i think.
Troy -- i wouldn't be terribly surprised if Stone wins. And she's so great in the movie that i wouldn't mind much either but for the fact that Bening is always getting the shaft awards wise.
I think Nicole Kidman could upset, but it'll be Natalie.
I do think supporting actress will surprise though.
I think actor could possiblyyyy surprise, but unfortunately, as you said, Firth is a lock like Mirren was a while back.
I think Bale is the only hardcore lock of the expected.
And as much as their comedy nominations sucked, I really love their acting nominations (aside from like...Michael Douglas) - Jacki Weaver, no Hailee, neither of the old guys in lead actor, which made room for all the youngins that deserved it.
I think "You Haven't Seen The Last Of Me" will win, as well as I Am Love.
And I agree, with comedy/musical actor, anyone but Depp - The Tourist is extremely plausible.
I'm guessing Gyllenhaal. I can't bring myself to even predict Depp because that would honestly be a tragedy. But after the year of The Hangover and RDJ, perhaps we should expect tragedy.
If Moore hadn't gotten a nod, I would probably be predicting Alice for the win over TKAAR, but clearly they've got love for the film. They did reward Burton fairly recently (for Sweeney Todd, right?)- will it happen again? Ahhh!
I think if Kunis is going to win any big award, it could be this one. But Leo is probably the safe way to go, considering they gave The Fighter some big noms (Wahlberg, Russell).
AMEN about Nic Kidman! She's my winner this year as well, and I would LOVE for an upset (and for the Best Actress category to get shaken up a bit).
The Fighter, Portman, Firth, The Kids Are All Right, Hathaway, Gyllenhaal, Weaver, Bale, Toy Story 3, Biutiful, Fincher, Sorkin, Desplat, “Bound to You”
I'm betting Christopher Nolan takes best director. Just a hunch.
Paul -- oh so his & hers for LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS. i *almost* went there for no guts no glory but then realized they'd snubbed it in comedy despite having TERRIBLE nominees and so it's terribleness shouldn't get in the way at all!
Aww Nathaniel I missed your redesigned name for Alice In Wonderland in there - "Eyesore in Wonderland".
I also can't seem to understand why BLACK SWAN didn't win Make-Up in the BFCA CCMAs. It must be because it's not eliglible for the Oscars.
My predictions allign with most of yours, predicting Depp (AiW) instead of Gylenhaal although I understand your line of thought, predicting I Am Love too but expecting Le Concert to triumph (if TWC did their job right, it's right up their alley), predicting Melissa Leo but I'm too thinking that A-lister Amy Adams (or Bonham-Carter, who also has more name in the industry) will win.
Your bet on THE KING'S SPEECH's score is intriguing. I think Zimmer is safe but yes I can totally see Desplat taking this. It would be an interesting build-up to the Oscars (although winning Globes may not translate to winning an Oscar).
If I was going all "no guts, no glory", I'd predict an upset in Best Director and Best Picture, but both for THE FIGHTER or BLACK SWAN.
"Should Win: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole"
Amen and hallelujah! Please dear God let this be the upset of the evening! I found the clip of Natalie's acceptance speech at the Critic's Choice. Oscar friendly but so irritating. Is she turning into Anne Hathaway?
I'll probably get tarred and feathered for this but I think Johnny Depp willl win the Globe tonight. I don't think he should win. I think that the Globe SHOULD go to any of the other three men. But the last time that Depp was nominated (and won) was the year that the Golden Globes did not air due to the writer's strike. His win wasn't televised. This is an opportunity for the to award him and have him give a speech in front of millions of people. If only for them to say "Hey. We are cool. We voted for Johnny Depp." I personally would want to see Jake Gyllenhaal win. And as an added bonus, he gives his acceptance speech in the nude.
This year's supporting actress race feels a little bit like the 2008 race in which there was much uncertainty about who would eventually take the prize. I'm also wondering if Melissa Leo's monster mom will end up like Amy Ryan's did. They both took home quite a few critics awards in a showy role AND both won the Critics Choice Award. I guess tonight we will see but it was really the Golden Globes/Cate Blanchett win that opened the door for others in the race.
Nathaniel, it was a definitely a "his & hers" prediction. ;-) Y'know: "You're both gorgeous and young and you'll look great together in the press room and in promo stills next year, etc. etc." The Comedy nominations are just bizarre this year.
P.S. It looks like The Social Network is the only movie with a nominee in every (realistically) eligible category. So I'm glad I predicted it (as well as The Fighter, The King's Speech and Love and Other drugs) to win two Globes.
I agree with the Best Actor (Comedy) pick. I'd guess Gyllenhaal by process of elimination, but his movie kinda sucked, so who knows. I'm rooting for Paul Giamatti in 'Barney's Version', though. Fingers crossed!!!
Gosling's my win for Actor, even though I know he won't take the prize tonight. If the Globes are going to dog-pile on one film, I'm betting it's The King's Speech. Either HBC or Rush won't win, but the film will take every other category it's up for.
Sorry Nathaniel but NICOLE KIDMAN? She gives the best performance of the year along with Michelle Williams (oh, Jackie weaver is in a category of her own). But it's so understated I'm even surprised it was nominated. But I guess the Globes like her (that Birth nomination was the best decision they made this decade). Still, she doesn't stand a chance. Actually, no one does. The biggest upset would be Jennifer Lawrence but even her momentum has descresed because of another breakthrough: hailee stanfield (though she's clearly overrated). So, I think Portman has it to lose. At the Oscar, I don't know. I guess we'll se if The Kids Are Alright is even nominated for Best Picture.
Out of curiosity and my undying love for the most original and interesting awards of the season, when are we going to be getting the rest of the Film Bitch awards? ;)
I'm definitely feeling a King's Speech upset. I base this not an any bias of the HFPA for European films, nor on any jazz about The Social Network being "too American" for them to get.
Just, after that Musical/Comedy list, I just don't think they have any sense of modern quality. Not that King's Speech is bad, but it's quality is more of the classic uplifting type. Seriously HFPA is starting to make AMPAS look downright hip.
I'm thinking the surprise winners will be Mila and Nicole.
Bia -- i could see a surprise win for Mila (i realy could) but Nicole? that's just too much wishful thinking ;)
Casey -- i gotta get through this insane awards weekend. all next weke is the film bitch awards because i always announce all traditional categories before the oscar nominations (dont wanna be influenced)
DIogo your post makes no sense. You say Kidman gives the best performance of the year but its too understated? Yeah you're a hater, that's all. Kidman deserves this hands down. Learn how to analyze your reasoning instead of coming off as a total wanker!
If Mila Kunis upsets in best supporting actress, she's gonna cause a serious stir at the Oscars. Which is good, because Firth, Portman, and Bale are all nearly locked and loaded.
i am just REALLY HOPING for a James Franco upset!!! And Michelle Williams upset!!! I love the upsets!!! :) Makes the award season interesting - if the same person always wins, it gets a little boring.
Jason T -- Yikes! Don't you get what he's saying? She is amazing. But how many understated performances -- no matter how good (just look at Jacki) -- have won an Oscar, let alone a Golden Globe? Just about the only way to get an award is to absolutely devour the scenery. Some have done that and still given brilliant performances (Leigh in Streetcar, Taylor in ...Woolf?) but they were geniuses and that's almost never the case.
On an unrelated note: if Jacki wins tonight do you guys think she's a safe bet for the Oscars? I'm calling her as the upset.
I really hope Jacki Weaver pulls out a shock win here, but I agree with all your predictions (although I think Leo is more likely to win Supporting Actress than Adams, and I am leaning more towards Inception winning Score, but that category could go to TKS or TSN as well).
GOOOO JACKI!
Jacki Weaver
That's my one big hope for tonight.
@Troy: A Troy commenting on the website that isn't me -- that's unusual.
To the topic at hand: I could definitely see something like a Kunis win happening. Usually in the case of juggernauts the Globes don't go against the grain -- *usually* -- so I wouldn't bet against the perceived sure things. However, in the case of supporting actress there is still much ambiguity, and tonigt might be a night to make a statement about that.
i think that natalie portman is loved by golden globe so....BUT un upset for kidman is very possible; if i can dream i see mila kunis winning the supporting award but.......IN THE REALITY melissa leo catches it. bale is a lock! actor's race is predictable but if firth loses it i see jesse for a win!! giamatti and depp(alice) fight for victory. sorkin is just win( i guess my self) if loved social ntework , it wins picture director score ,also screenplay. but if they prefer king's speech it will win picture actor score. bening or moore? shakespeare' s question for HFPA; song's race is plainly for cher ( i said cher only not song 's cher, noticed that). last but not least toy story 3 will bring home the animated's prize and for foreign language movie biutiful / i am love split in favour of " in a better world " ( a moving movie that will loved by the taste of foreign press. THIS IS IT. BYE BYE SWANS ( BLACK OR WHITE) THAT DREAMED A SOCIAL NETWORK WHERE FIGHT THE KING.
oh nat, i love you and all, but the bias for nicole kidman? come on. you could have added parentheses and state the name of the actress who should really win. big minus respect points for you. how disappointing and it does hurt because i love your blog. :(
Nicole Kidman - I LIKE THAT IDEA, but I think that Portman is goind to win!
paopao -- i actually don't know what you mean. That is actually my opinion. I think Nicole Kidman is the best in that category.