Supporting Actress (and Mothers & Sons)
Monday, February 21, 2011 at 10:00PM It occurred to me when completing the Best Supporting Actress page -- now with "How'd they get nominated?" theorizing, Polls and Trivia -- that "The Wisdom of Crowds" might be in order for this category in terms of predictions. It's the only category that seems ripe for an upset, given both the nature of the category (the most frequently upsettable as it were) and the unfortunate turning of the tide against Melissa Leo. I say unfortunate because I think that Melissa Leo is absolute aces in The Fighter and far less deserving performances win Oscars every year! She'd be my personal winner in a year that didn't contain something as untoppable as Jacki Weaver's "Smurf" my first pencilled in candidate for Best of the Decade in 2020 when we pretend that the Oscars are only held once a decade.
So humor me by voting on this poll and explain yourself in the comments. Who IS going to win? Also make sure to vote on each of the categories for your "should win" on the Oscar pages
You know you want to.
It feels like a nailbiter as we just discussed on the podcast. I'm still leaning towards thinking that Leo is going to pull off the win, given that I think her competitors are probably too strong across the board to steal all the NOT LEO votes for themselves.
But while researching this category, I realized that if Bale and Leo both win for The Fighter, it'll be the first time since Holly Hunter & Anna Paquin in The Piano (1993) that actors playing immediate blood relatives have both won. But what of Mothers & Sons? It turns out there aren't very many of them that are ever nominated.
Ordinary People (1980) and My Left Foot (1989)
Past 50 Years of Mother & Son Oscar Combos - wins?
Melissa Leo and Christian Bale in The Fighter (2010) -we shall see
Julianne Moore and Ed Harris in The Hours (2002) -neither won
Toni Collette and Haley Joel Osment in The Sixth Sense (1999) - neither won
Kate Nelligan & Nick Nolte in The Prince of Tides (1991) - neither won
Brenda Ficker and Daniel Day-Lewis in My Left Foot (1989) -WINNERS!
Jessica Tandy and Dan Ackroyd in Driving Miss Daisy (1989) - only the mom
Mary Tyler Moore and Timothy Hutton in Ordinary People (1980) -only the son
Meryl Streep and Justin Henry in Kramer Vs. Kramer (1979) -only the mom
Gladys Cooper and Rex Harrison in My Fair Lady (1964) - only the son
Thelma Ritter and Burt Lancaster in The Bird Man of Alcatraz (1962) -neither won
I think I've accounted for all of them. Are you fond of these pairings? Do you think we'll have another (fictional) mother & son set on Sunday night?
Christian Bale, Melissa Leo, Oscar Trivia, Oscars (10), The Fighter
Reader Comments (54)
I'm glad this topic is being brought up, because I think Steinfeld is going to pull off an upset at the Academy Awards. It is no accident that True Grit wound up with ten nominations (among them a surprise director nomination and a supporting actress nod for what is a leading role). The Academy clearly loves the film. It also helps Steinfeld that True Grit cannot win any of the big six awards besides supporting actress. Not since 1986 have supporting actor and supporting actress been won for the same movie (Michael Caine and Dianne Wiest for Hannah and Her Sisters). Everyone thought Murphy would win along with Hudson in 2006, but even that didn't happen. I just think the Academy will want to spread the wealth if they nominated True Grit for that many awards and think that supporting actor will suffice for The Fighter. Plus history has shown that wins in the supporting actress category have gone to child actresses. And this is all ignoring any backlash for Leo's campaign ads.
With that said, I LOVE Melissa Leo in The Fighter and firmly believe she deserves to win (although I haven't seen Weaver). Steinfeld should've been considered for the leading category, and although her performance is wonderful, she doesn't cut it for a nomination there either.
Agree with Matthew. 10 noms mean Oscar loves this movie muchomacho. Hailee is “leading” among this supporting actresses. Excluding Hailee, the best of the four is Melissa Leo. So i go with Hailee Steinfeld to win.
I don't see Leo winning anymore, but I can't think of anyone else. Steinfeld, I think, is the kind of actress in the kind of role that would've won years ago, but I don't know if they can get away with it now. True Grit is likely going to win Cinematography so they don't need to reward her to honour the film. I don't see Adams pulling the upset, not with Leo nominated and a Weaver win would be cool, but really, how many voters actually saw Animal Kingdom? That leaves us with Bonham Carter, who could totally win this even if The King's Speech doesn't sweep. They like her and they love her movie.
Still, I'm afraid we could all just be making this up, Leo won the SAG, the Globe and the Critics Choice, as well as a bunch of other critics awards. And even if there's people who disapprove of what she did with the ads, let's remember that there's also people who support her. The backlash can't be that big... can it?
"The Sixth Sense" too, right?
I don't buy much into the "the Academy really likes True Grit" theory, mostly because the nomination period was really in True Grit's sweet spot (when its box office was most impressive), and it made sense that it got a few unexpected nominations.
I just don't think it makes a lot of sense to doubt Leo when she has won almost everything but BAFTA. I just don't see the Academy taking things a different route.
And Julianne Moore and Ed Harris!
Good calls Marsha. IIf you're not being a stickler about "blood related" then there's also Benjamin Button.
And Gladys Cooper and Rex Harrison for My Fair Lady, with Rex winning.
I have no idea who's going to win Supporting Actress, and I sort of love not knowing, because I'm so desperate for a sense of surprise, even from myself.
It'll be Leo. The reason why: She hams it up. It's the most showy performance in a boring category. Helena Bonham Carter's best asset is her personality and her numerous performances, not only this year but over time. In the end, though, I think enough people love Leo's turn and it will get her the win. I thought she was too much, but hey, to each their own.
Leo's won everything, but that BAFTA snub is a real eye-opener. Coupled with the print-ad controversy, I do wonder if that won't leave room for old Helena to sneak up and grab it. If Weaver can't win, it might as well be Helena.
But please, not Steinfeld. She was very good in the movie, but an Oscar for that? Really?
I wonder about Hailee Steinfeld and Melissa Leo splitting votes so as to allow for an HBC upset? Presumably, Amy Adams and the "consider" scandal will bring Leo's tally down, and HBC has the benefit of being in the Best Picture frontrunner, plus the "British block" and having worked in the industry for 26 years.
Probably wishful thinking on my part, but seeing her get her due after so many years of brilliance would be delicious.
I think it'll be Leo; whenever there's an favorite ready to fall, you need support to gather around one person, or else the favorite holds on. Like Zellwger or even Bullock last year. I also hope she wins. It's a perf w the right amount of ham for the role and the movie, and I kind of like the ads. Such a sassy broad.
I thought of another mother/son (I'm bored.): Nolte & Nelligan in "Prince of Tides." (Right?)
Ole Marsha's perfs usually came with a dependent child, but I never got one for a son. (I even checked.)
Marsha-- you are the queen of mother & son stats. THANKS for filling this out.
Nick - you too.
Bruno -- but maybe the Brits just don't get The Fighter in the way they didn't get Winter's Bone... both "regional Americana" stuff in a way. but maybe the hamminess of which you speak is right.
Matthew & Mikhael -- you're probably right that Steinfeld is the spoiler but i'm just so dreading it. It just seems like such an affront to all the women who've been slaving away at their profession for so long (Helena, Jacki, Melissa, Amy... ALL OF THEM)
Missing one: Sergeant York, Gary Cooper and Margaret Wycherly, son won. But I wouldn't have remembered this if it wasn't for a recent TCM screening. Oooh, I love 31 Days of Oscars!
I think you hit the nail on the head Nathaniel. Carter and Steinfeld, I don't think, can reign in all the NOT LEO votes, or enough to outweigh the LEO votes.
If this were a preferential ballot, perennial #2 Adams would be the winner
Ooh yeah, Benjamin Button too...of course they weren't BLOOD related, but I'd still consider them a mom+son pair.
I love Oscar stats! <3
Every time that someone brings up the fact that Julianne Moore didn't win an Oscar, I get really sad.
@Walter: There are definitely others pre-1960 (Peck and Revere in Gentleman's Agreement, et al.), but he did say he was keeping it to the last 50 years. Which, thank God, or I wouldn't be able to think of anything else all night!
Off topic but this is hilarious, James Franco's failed tribute to Burlesque:
http://www.whosay.com/jamesfranco/videos/13090
Also, I believe both Mildred Natwick and Kevin McCarthy were nominated alongside Fredric March in the long-obscure Death of a Salesman film.
Which apparently was 1951, not 1961. Never mind then.
Nick: My high school match teacher told me I was terrible at this. OY. Now my face is red. :P
I want Carter to win. She needs it the most. Leo, kiss your consideration goodbye. There are plenty of worthy American character actresses who can play white trash just as good if not better than you do – case in point Margo from Million Dollar Baby – They laugh at you.
Finally watched True Grit yesterday... Disappointing!!! Best thing about it? I now have a great talent of impersonating Mattie Ross. My friend loves it.
I too hope Steinfeld doesn't win. People shouldn't confuse cute with amazing.
Melisso Leo deserves the Oscar. I don't even know what people are talking about when they say she's over the top. I actually thought she was subtle. More so than Adams!
Nathaniel...re: regional Americana & the Brits. They did nominate Amy Adams...
In my personal list, I give nods to Angela Lansbury and Laurence Harvey for The Manchurian Candidate.
and also John Malkovich and Joanne Woodward for The Glass Menagerie (1987)
I actually never realised that Ed Harris was playing Julianne Moore's son! In my defense I haven't seen the movie in 9 years. Still though, now it feels like a twist on the scale of 'The Sixth Sense'!
I'm certain this year the Supporting Awards will go to the same film.
Sooo its either Rush and Bonham Carter or Bale and Leo.
I think it'll be Bale and Leo.
The Kings Speech has already got 3 of the big'uns (Picture, Actor, Screenplay).
I'm praying however that lovely Amy Adams surprises. For me, in The Fighter she acts Melissa Leo off the screen, its a better performance than hers in Doubt, and up there with Junebug. Furthermore, I remember in 2009 when there was a fake leaked winners list days before the ceremony and it predicted Amy beat Penelope and although she hadn't been a favourite, everyone loved Penelope Cruz and even Viola Davis was more popular than her co star Amy, people on forums and message boards, and presumabley academy members, wouldn't of been upset at a shock Adam's win, shes one of the best working actress's today and lovely and everything !
sure --- the list is only about mother/son combos where both actors were nominated. neither got nominations in that case. but Manchurian... i did check that since i forgot which movie gave Laurence Harvey his one Oscar nod. That woulda been a great one though (talk about memorable mother/son screen pairings. He & queen of hearts Angela Lansbury.
the jack -- well obvs i forgot that i knew this too since it wasn't in the first draft ;)
Anthony -- um, CUTE does not mean AMAZING?!? [/sarcasm] (i so agree)
I've just looked up the ad because it seemed to be a capital crime from all the posts and comments. What a bunch of hypocritical and conceited losers the Academy Members who said would NOT vote for Leo because of these pics are!!! I thought she would be shown with her boobs hanging out or something, but the ads are not scandalous or offensive or pushy at all. Is it just me who can see the subtlety in the message? Academy member ALWAYS vote on the basis of campaings (anyone can recall Sandra Bullock's win?), so what's the problem with an initiative like Leo's? She says it's a new thing, she knows what she is doing and if anything, the ads hold a mirror to the whole voting and awards distribution process.
Yes, she might want the attention, even a win, but I don't blame her for showing it instead of faking not being interested and being equally happy if somebody else (perhaps less deserving) wins - the behaviour actors are apparently expected to display. Yes, you should be humble and honoured but you can be those even if you feel you deserve to be named the best (Helena Bonham Carter's BAFTA speech was close to this; she did not discredited herself either or wanted to look soooo surprised she could win - quite rightly).
Why are people so envious and jelous of other people's talent and success? I'm so happy there is a woman out there who possesses the right amount of self-esteem and dares to stand up for herself. And again, if it is attention-seeking, then the members of the Academy should carefully consider how much they let campaigns affect their final decisions instead of the quality of performances and films.
Co-sign to what vg21 said. And speaking of hypocracy, if the people not voting for Leo are the same ones casting their votes for "The King's Speech" in light of that new, shameless TV advertisement (I know neither when the polls closed nor when the ads started running), then I have a real problem with that.
At any rate, my preference is for Adams, but if there is to be an upset, I'll take anyone except Hailee (handling somewhat complex dialogue fairly well at a young age is not the same as great acting) and Helena (fine but hardly interesting work).
I don't get it , this year Leo wants it too much , last year M'onique didn't want it enough, there is no pleasing some people
i think melissa will be just as grateful if she doesn't get it again this year. she's obviously the one having the most fun(and exposure) in her category. i'm feeling for jackie weaver the same year tilda swooped in for michael clayton. so it's gonna be a nice wonderful upset for me when she gets it.
Ditto what vg21 and Rami said about Leo (I don't understand the fuss.)
I haven't seen ANY of the nominated performances, but just from a semi-objective standpoint, the most likely "upset" seems to be HBC because she's got that "overdue" status. (I actually keep forgetting that she DIDN'T win for Wings of the Dove. Criminal.) They might be very happy to give her the gong they SHOULD have given her a decade ago.
Because however much we want to think it's about the performance - it never really is, is it?
janice. no, it isn't. except when it is (which is rarely. I think Mo'Nique's win was about the performance -- maybe Christoph Waltz's to. It happens every once in awhile.
Off-topic - I just watched that little Oscar ad w/Franco and Hathaway "in training" down below, Nat (do you get any revenue when I click on it?) So funny - I wish wish WISH the awards themselves would be like that. I rather doubt that they will be. I'm almost fearing that these funny teasers are setting us up for disappointment (how ya gonna follow that?). Please surprise us, AMPAS.
I think that James Cagney and Margaret Wycherly (she played his mother) should have been nominated for White Heat.
Janice -- it's not a "per click" situation with money. but that pricing of ads does correlate with the likelihood of readership to click on things. so yes. sort of. it helps.
I still think it's Leo and here's why:
She was clearly the choice of actors before FYC-gate. Since actors make up the largest bloc of voters, she will still have their support. And maybe even moreso now, because as actors, I think they will look at the situation, and hope that if the shoe were on their foot, they would want to be awarded for the performance and not how they played the game.
The only other choice is HBC, if The King's Speech is headed for sweepsville. But a vote for HBC shouldn't be construed as a non-vote for Leo. I don't think Steinfeld, Weaver or Adams have a shot. It's either Leo or Carter.
I still think it's Leo and here's why:
She was clearly the choice of actors before FYC-gate. Since actors make up the largest bloc of voters, she will still have their support. And maybe even moreso now, because as actors, I think they will look at the situation, and hope that if the shoe were on their foot, they would want to be awarded for the performance and not how they played the game.
The only other choice is HBC, if The King's Speech is headed for sweepsville. But a vote for HBC shouldn't be construed as a non-vote for Leo. I don't think Steinfeld, Weaver or Adams have a shot. It's either Leo or Carter.
The worst thing about Steinfeld is not the categorie fraud as much as: SHE SUCKED!
"Plus history has shown that wins in the supporting actress category have gone to child actresses."
A bit of an over generalazation there, Matt. In the entire history of AMPAS, only two child actresses have actually won in the Best Supporting Category, I believe. Tatum O'Neal for Paper Moon and Anna Paquin for The Piano. No other child actor has won since. Oh sure, there's the occaisonal nomination, Abigal Breslin for Little Miss Sunshine, and now Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit. But an actual win? Nope, not since 1993, when little Anna Paquin pulled off the upset of the night. Though back then there weren't that many percusor awards like there are now. I wonder if AP was the front runner all through out the season, but just that nobody saw it due to lack of percursors?
Anyway, there's always the possibility that Steinfeld will pull off an upset, but it's unlikely in my opinion. Leo has it in the bag, the FYC ads notwithstanding. I like Steinfeld and thought her performance was great, but she's leading not supporting and I think a lot of voters will see through the category fraud situation. They like True Grit, they like her, but realized she wasn't strong enough to compete in Best Actress and slotted her into Best Supporting, where she has a better chance. Still, it's unlikely that she'll win (I believe) and her nomination *is* her award.
what r these fyc ads.
I can't believe you left out Jane Darwell and Henry Fonda for "The grapes of wrath". Mama Joad won!
Nathaniel said IN THE LAST 50 YEARS.
The cases pre-1962 are:
36: Walter Huston and Maria Ouspenskaya in Dodwsworth
40: Jane Darwell and Henry Fonda in The Grapes of Wrath
41: Gary Cooper and Margaret Wycherly in Pride of the Yankees
43: Paul Lukas and Lucile Watson in Watch on the Rhine
44: Cary Grant and Ethel Barrymore in None But the Lonely Heart
47: Anne Revere and Gregory Peck in Gentelmen's Agreement
55: Jo VanFleet and James Dean in East of Eden
Did I miss or get something wrong?
If there are Academy members switching away from Leo, and I've read there are, I think most would actually go to Adams. I'm so hoping anyone but Steinfeld, but am starting to get worried and trying to rationalize away from that potential catastrophe.
I'm picking Hailee Steinfeld. I think "True Grit"'s getting more than just cinematography, which is as much a lifetime achievement for Roger Deakins as for the film itself. Two acting wins for "The Fighter" seems very excessive, especially when you look over that list of mom/son combos. "The Fighter" would be in some very elite company if it managed two supporting acting Oscars, and I wonder if it has the right momentum to do that. If Melissa Leo hadn't gone all batshit nutso on us, yeah, but she did, and it turned people off I'd imagine right when they were voting, and if people didn't want to rubberstamp the Globes, SAG, and CC's, then Steinfeld is the best (and newest) bet. BAFTA might have come too late for Helena Bohnam Carter. I'm holding out that voters are only giving FIrth the acting win there. Adams gets the "next time, it's yours" vote. A Jacki Weaver win would be awesome, but I don't think enough people have even seen "Animal Kingdom," and those damn voters have no excuse since they got the screeners for it way back in the fall. But I'm picking Hailee Steinfeld. The category's due for another young girl win soon. It's been almost two decades since Anna Paquin if you can believe that.
Dorian -- i'm beginning to think you're right. But like Bruno i'm trying to rationalize away that awful outcome.
This is funny musing. Not many mom/son winners? Haha. Someone really has too much time on his hands. Even if there's such a pattern, I don't think it would apply to The Fighter so much b/c even playing mom and son, Leo and Bale aren't the central relationship in the movie. We don't see their relationship develop fully. Had it been Leo and Wahlberg being nominated, I'd think your theory would apply. As is, they are just two supporters to Wahlberg.
Now I guess it's me who's having too much time on his hands. :)