Anne vs. Amy. Oscar Chart Updates!
Sunday, August 12, 2012 at 1:55PM If anyone can threaten the widely held assumption that Anne Hathaway will win the Supporting Actress Oscar come February for dreaming that dream in time gone by in Les Misérables, isn't it Amy Adams in Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master? In the heat of August, Anne seems to have this thing sewn up. But August is August. It ain't February.
Actress Wars 2012: Anne vs. Amy
Though we haven't seen either performance yet, it's worth noting that Oscar wars are rarely won by a stand alone acting achievement. They can be, sure, but more often than not they're fought with a fluctuating combo of deft campaign tricks, strong timing, media drum beatings, general feelings for the film that houses said performance, barely acknowledged collective memories of past triumphs and defeats, preconceived notions of what the actors in questions are capable of, and other films -- particularly brand new ones or "snubbed" but beloved efforts -- that contribute to or detract from the "It's Her/His Time" argument.
So, let's discuss ANNE & AMY (&, yes, STREEP) with a fancy battle chart...
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Winner!
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| History | 1 nomination that was wholly deserved and arguably should've won.. | 3 nominations, 2 of which were wholly earned and 1 of which felt, shall we say, generous. |  |
| Snubs | Nope | Enchanted |  |
| Musical? | Oscar & Kennedy Center show-off, Judy Garland biopic dreams, Les Miz | Enchanted, plus "Into the Woods" in Central Park right now |  |
| Extra Boost | The Dark Knight Rises | Trouble With the Curve | |
| Home State | New York | Colorado | |
| Age | 29 (Oscar's actressy sweet spot!) | 38 this month (which means supporting is the best hope for an actual win now. *sigh*) | |
| Range | Genre-hops with ease though star persona (the charm offensive, 'let's put on a show!') rarely waivers. | Sweet funny naivete are the bread and butter (Junebug, Doubt, Enchanted) but lately some stretching is happening (The Fighter) |  |
| Bait | Prostitution, Maternal Grief, Death Scene, Poverty Porn, Huge Key Monologue | Supportive Wife, Other Hooks unknown at this writing | |
| Box Office | Past history of musical epics suggests anywhere from $50 to $150 million | Past history of P.T. Anderson masterpieces suggests anywhere from $25 to $50 million | |
| Lack of Divisiveness | LOL | Hugs! | |
| Oscar Love for Co-Stars | Jackman, Crowe, Seyfried, Bale, Hardy | Hoffman, Phoenix, Dern, Eastwood, Timberlake | |
| Auteur Pull | Hooper & Nolan | Anderson & Lorenz (who will be easily mistaken for Eastwood) | |
Sound off on this Battle Chart... Which category did I miss? Who wins best range? Where did I go wrong?
SUPPORTING ACTRESS CHARTS
Right now I'd bank on this race being Hathaway's to lose with Adams being her distant but foremost competitor. It's worth nothing that the rest of the field can also affect the leaders. Right now I'm predicting Helen Hunt (The Sessions is Oscar buzzing) who will probably be campaigning in Supporting, Viola Davis (Won't Back Down) via Oscar afterglow and apologia, and Olivia Williams (Hyde Park on Hudson) who seems to be at the peak of her gift these days.
LEAD ACTRESS CHARTS
In an unusual reversal from previous summertimes, when the supporting races are impossible to read and the lead battles are already somewhat summarizable, who can tell what the hell is going on with Best Actress at this point? If you click around the web, there are surely some sites who are predicting something or other in utter confidence but if so they're delusional. It's entirely up in the air. At this writing at least.
Meryl Streep. She wrote the book on Oscar, didn't she?
Nobody who has already shown themselves (Katniss, Hushpuppy, Judi Dench as Judi Dench in India!) is an obvious slam dunk and nobody yet to come feels "lock'ish" in any non-hyperbolic understanding of the word. This is not to say that it's a weak year. Let's not jump on that cliché. This is merely to say that there's not a single leading actress who should give up hope yet.
As for Meryl Streep, currently enjoying her usual "All the Oscars Belong To Her" critical reception for Hope Springs, the case is either very complicated or not complicated at all. She'll surely be gracing red carpets again if the movie is deemed a "comedy" by the Golden Globes and we already know she'll be at the Oscars to hand out Best Actor (how weird would it be if she handed a THIRD Oscar out -- oh hei Daniel! your chart gets updated soon, too -- after winning one?) but as for her own prospects...
My guess is that the double whammy of "enough already!" feeling, which she herself pointedly underlined in her Oscar speech ("Her!? Again???") combined with the Academy's largely unremarked upon habit of ignoring her when she plays "normal" women unencumbered by important lives / altered vocals (The Hours, Falling in Love, River Wild, Defending Your Life) will leave her on the outside looking in. I'm sure the Great Lady won't mind with August: Osage County right around the corner and a valid shot at tying Kate Hepburn's trophy pull. In fact, she'd be more likely to have a shot at that seemingly insurmountable record if they took a wee break from her.
But, yes, if the nominations were held right now at this very moment, Streep would have an easy in. And you'd see her competing with Quvenzhané Wallis, Jennifer Lawrence, Judi Dench and...um... Kate Beckinsale's Angry Hair.
Reader Comments (77)
dinasztie -- i don't disagree that she's a lead (i haven't seen the film yet but will soon) but the campaign plan is supporting.
Jamie -- yes. There's nothing "ordinary" about that role in August: Osage County. ;)
I just don't like Knightley enough to see her winning and she didn't seduced me in the "Anna Karenina" 6 minutes clip that was released. Cotillard won't win again for a French-speaking performance. Laura Linney's part doesn't sound like an Oscary one, for some reason... Maybe Maggie Smith has the best role from all the contenders, but I believe "Quartet" won't hit big.
So...
Am I crazy or Quvenzhané Wallis is in serious danger of taking the Best Leading Actress Oscar for "Beasts of the Southern Wild" at this point of the race? I know she won't be placed in the supporting category almost for sure (where it's easier for young actresses to win, like Anna Paquin for "The Piano"), but her performance is excellent and the movie is great too...
Where did you read that about Hunt??? I'm shocked! She has way more chance in the very open leading race. :DDD They are crazy!!! She could WIN another lead Oscar. Instead it's a supporting nod at best with Anne and Amy there.
And is Viola also going supporting?
And is Viola also going supporting?
No, she's going for Annette Bening martyr-hood in Best Actress.
You SHOULD remember about KIDMAN. Everybody. But i don't know in which category.
Every time I see the trailer for "Won't Back Down" my gut tells me that it has to be one of those instant crowd pleasers in order to score with the Academy, assuming it's more popcorn than prestige. I do not think Viola Davis is going to go quietly into the supporting night, no matter how much the previews seem to favor Maggie G. I could definitely see her fighting for lead.
Amy is stronger this year, and if she will not win for her fourth nomination (in supporting), maybe is also another record, right?
Speaking of leading race, what about Moore's WHAT MAISY KNEW and THE ENGLISH TEACHER? Any insight news here?
You know.... It's like a big balloon was burst after Meryl was named best actress for TIL.
A giant shockwave run all over the place and it's like "what now?" at the moment. For best leading actress. All the other categories seem to be quite packed.
Very interesting. I mean years and years and years we spend to see the woman get nomination after nomination but no more win. Now it happened in a bit unexpected way. The race was really tough this time. No one swept the critic awards, though Michelle Williams won the most, she was only #3 at best-and she was also in a Weistein film! And played one of the most famous female stars! But Harvey wanted to be the one to get Meryl her third, no matter what. He did not even wait for A:OC.
And since Naomi Watts will have a Lady Di biopic out that same year, he was right. (I mean.... could you see the Academy awarding Elisabeth I., Elisabeth II., Margaret Thatcher but NOT Lady Di? I can't.) I hope for Viola's sake her Barbara Jordan biopic won't come out that year.
It seems very likely Meryl might not get nominated for Hope Springs. It's just too unbaity. But then.... She has played so many extrodinary characters, that they might reward her with a nom for going the complete opposite. They might.
But it's still so early to say yes or no. It'll be very interesting who'll make the final five next year.
As for supporting actress.... Anne seems like a winner at the moment. Things could change, of course, but her character in LesMiz has everything the Academy is a real sucker for.
I love Amy very much (I loved her performance in Doubt, too), but it seems she might be the bridemaids all over again....
Isaac -- well Thelma Ritter is the queen there. 6 nominations in supporting and she never won.
dinasztie -- i didn't read it. from a private phone conversation.
dinasztie -
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-beast-southern-wild-best-exotic-marigold-ruby-sparks-hitchcock-349868
According to Scott Feinberg, after tlking with people from Fox Searchlight, Wallis and Dench will go to the leading category and Hunt for supporting category. I don't now if is 100% but there's still a big possibility for this decision and maybe they too confident with Wallis
It's crazy!!!!! :D I don't want to believe it! I wanted her to win a second lead Oscar so badly. :(((
isaac - We don't have any news of "The English Teacher", maybe it would release on TV. No festival run, no poster, no test screeners... That's bad. For What Maisey Knew?, there was in the running for a distribuitor, but the first test reviews aren't exactly too enthusiastic. They call the girl and Skarsgard as the best of the show, but the film failed to convince the audience and it's not a faithfull adaptation... If that's true, we have Bee Season 2.0... Ironically, by the same directors
leon - thanks for the reply, poor Moore, no buzz this year, only wish GAME CHANGE shouldn't be a HBO TV project!
nathanielr: also thanks for the Thelma Ritter tip, poor lady.
It's crazy!!!!! :D I don't want to believe it! I wanted her to win a second lead Oscar so badly. :(((
What the hell for? She's not a beloved lady of cinema, and her Oscar win, is just as controversial as any in Best Actress. I can name an army of actresses who deserve a first or second well before remotely considering Hunt.
Great Expectations Trailer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OLdUO2dCIRE
Helena looks stong and could receive her third nomination.
based on the few reviews that have come out, it seems like The master is more a Hoffman/Phoenix showcase. Some of them don't even mention Amy =|
and to be honest Trouble with the curve looks very Hallmark-esque
So many people have so much animus for Anne Hathaway. Even Zellweger seemed to be more respected back in her day.
I believe Meryl's chances of a nomination will depend on how strong the traction is for Wiig and Streisand to take the usual "comedy spot" among the Best Actresses. Additionally, voters may think "I'll wait for next year's A:OC".
At this point I'll go with Linney, Knightley, Wallis (remember Keisha Castle-Hughes?), Gyllenhall and either Streisand or Streep. Linney is my favorite.
Support: I like NAt's lineup: Hathaway, Adams, Viola, Williams and Helen Hunt. If the roles are right, I could also see The Bening or Sally Field getting a nomination.
PS: This list would put Streep in a tight spot. Who of her friends and frequent costars will she "officially" root for? Anne, Amy or Viola? Mmmm... I guess she'd just say nothing!
Thelma Ritter: An actress I adore. I just don't see the parallel with Amy Adams.
Lady Di: I have very strong reservations about this film. I don't think Streep´s chances of a nomination and a likely 4th win will be jeopardized! (When thinking about Streep just remember Katharine Hepburn won her 2nd, 3rd and 4th Oscars with her last 3 nominations!)
What do we think the chances of Emmanuele Riva pulling a Central Station and finding herself in the race? I feel pretty confident that the LA critics will give her their prize if nothing else.
Glenn- Just for the fun of it, I'm actually currently predicting Amour to score fairly big with the Academy this year. It's getting an actual release in December instead of just a few Oscar-qualifying screenings, and I think it could end up being the critics' darling of the year along with The Master. Original Screenplay is a distinct possibility, and I think Emmanuelle Riva stands a pretty decent shot at a Best Actress nomination too, especially if the competition doesn't pick up. Maybe even a Director nomination for Haneke? It seems like the kind of thing that would have happened 8 or 9 years ago, but the director's branch has unfortunately decided to play it a bit safer than usual over the past several years, Malick's nomination notwithstanding. All I'm saying is that if the critics push hard enough for it, and if the general feeling is that it's a fairly weak year for Oscar bait movies, Amour could easily become a player beyond just the Foreign Language category.
And I'm sorry, but at this point in the year all we really have to go by are gut feelings, and mine is that Anne Hathaway will not win an Oscar this year. Even if nobody here seems to buy it, I'm convinced her performance will have at least a few vocal detractors. I don't see this as a Jennifer Hudson-type performance that wins over even people who don't like the movie. Unless they've increased the role from the stage musical, it's a fairly small part (albeit an important one), and I think it will be easy for people to accuse Hathaway of having not much to do aside from appearing meager and crying (albeit whilst singing). And besides, it's worth noting that the actress who played Fantine in the original Broadway production wasn't even nominated for a Tony, while two of the other supporting actresses were. It's arguably not even the best female role in the play. Again, I'm not saying she won't be nominated. I'm just trying to point out that there could potentially be several things working against her, and thus she is not the slam-dunk frontrunner some people are saying she is just based on the trailer. Hell, for all we know, the trailer has already shown us the best of her performance.
it's worth noting that the actress who played Fantine in the original Broadway production wasn't even nominated for a Tony
Edwin, actually Patti LuPone WON the Laurence Olivier Award -The British Tony- as BEST ACTRESS playing Fantine, so I don't buy this argument. Also, you need to remember than the 1997 production, "Fantine" was playing by Randy Graff, who received lukewarm reviews of her performance and she was considerate as a Best Actress costing her nomination. It was more a serie of other factors than the role.
While I agree Hathaway isn´t the unbeatable frontrunner, right now she has the edge. Her reviews in TDKR help her a lot and even if her role is short, is relevant and playing the most recognizable song of the play.
4rtful: Because I'm a fan of Helen and I'm championing her just like you do with your favorites. I want her to win a second so that people can shut up about her first Oscar, which was for BTW a great performance (even though my pick would be HBC).
dinasztie: The worst thing that could happen to Helen Hunt at this point is to get a second Oscar, in either category. You say "I want her to win a second so that people can shut up about her first Oscar." The thing is that if she wins she'll end up with two controversial Oscars out of two nominations. She'll be the next Hilary Swank! People won't shut up! It'll be worse.
If, on the other hand, she is nominated (but does not win) she'll feel vindicated in the same way as Marisa Tomei must have felt when she got her second nomination after the "did-Jack-Palance-read-the-last-name" scandal.
Hunt will be able to say "I AM a good actress, see?"
Julianne Moore's What Maisie Knew is having its world premiere at TIFF. Perhaps she'll be a player. http://press.tiff.net/press-releases
I just don't see Amy Adams winning. Idk. She just seems like one of those people that is like, endlessly nominated, but never screams "winner". I really have no idea what she would have to do to win.
As for Anne, I think it helps that she had TDKR this year too, and is getting such good reviews for that. We'll have to see how Les Mis goes, but I see it getting good reviews. And if she does too, she's set.
As for Meryl ... I really don't know. Depends how the film goes. I think it could go either way - "you just got a third oscar, we'll let you off this year" or "ooh, it's so different for her and i love the film and her performance". I know they don't usually like her "normal" roles, but she did just win her third finally, so things could be a little weird/different now.
what does "Harry's the Devil" mean?
Streep has a nomination in the bag for August Osage County. It is a role of a lifetime. This is really the role she should win another Oscar for. The script is simply sumptuous and who better to deliver those scene stealing lines than our Meryl.