Golden Globe Predictions (+ Shirley Maclaine's Third Jack)
Saturday, January 12, 2013 at 6:44PM 
The Golden Globes are tomorrow night, so I'll surely be here tweeting or live-blogging. One wonders if any of the HFPA's oft wined and dined members were treated to Christmas carols from one Jack Black over the holiday break? If not he missed quite an opportunity. If you've seen Bernie you know the man can sang. Though I doubt anyone can work around what's shaping up to be a Silver Linings Celebration tomorrow night (The Globes do love their Weinstein Co. product) the Comedy/Musical categories are typically home to the biggest Globe surprises throughout the years so Jack Black as a surprise winner has crossed my mind a time or two during the season. Remember when Sally Hawkins and Colin Farrell won in 2008? No one was expecting that! If Silver Linings were a little less beloved I'd assume that the Comedy or Musical prize would be going to "24601" himself Hugh Jackman but I'm guessing that now it's Bradley Cooper's to lose.
But back to Black. The comic's awards campaign for Bernie started fairly early-- there's something to be said for early launches -- and when I met him very briefly da few months ago he was so completely casual he almost seemed like a member of the press himself, just there for the free food which he kept recommending. I immediately broached the topic of working with Shirley Maclaine because, well, I am me. They bonded over the musical genre and Jack implied that Shirley kinda takes credit for Bob Fosse's film career basically under the from her movie clout at the time 'I'll do Sweet Charity but I want Bob Fosse to direct it!' I was told that Shirley referred to Jack Black as "My Third Jack"
Me: Fine company to be in. LEMMON. NICHOLSON. Nerve-wracking! Or maybe you're confidently okay with it?
Jack Black: Not too shabby. I'm okay with it! It's hard to choose between the two. Lemmon kicks so much ass in "The Apartment"... but Nicholson in "Cuckoo's Nest"!
It didn't occur to me until his Globe nomination arrived that both of the performances he name checked were Golden Globe Winners in their days. Coincidence or subliminal sign of his nomination to come?!
Is it annoying that I always bury the lede? Golden Globe predictions are after the jump.
BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
I'm guessing that Argo takes this one but if they want to have a wild surprising party, it's totally Django. The other nominee: Zero Dark Thirty and Life of Pi and Lincoln which might be the safe vote but I'm just not feeling it for the Globes.
BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL or COMEDY
It's Silver Linings Playbooks 100%. Since certainty freaks you out, there's a wee chance that Les Miz could dream a dream of winning but they weren't as kind to the musical in nomination totals as they could have been.
ACTRESS (DRAMA) and ACTRESS (COMEDY)
In this corner: Jessica Chastain. In that one: Jennifer Lawrence. And it'll continue that way through the season. This story will get old fast unless Naomi Watts can pull off a Globe upset in drama.
ACTOR (DRAMA) and ACTOR (COMEDY)
Daniel Day Lewis for Lincoln and Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook. But here is where I'd really love to see Hugh Jackman honored for Les Miz. Jackman is such a grand old school charming star and he never gets opportunities like this.
BEST DIRECTOR
If the Globes are true to their star-fucking tradition they're voting for Ben Affleck en masse here. If they're feeling restless, it's Tarantino.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio wins his second Golden Globe Sunday night. He previously won for The Aviator. I feel totally confident about this prediction though it's absolute foolishness to feel confident about Golden Globe predictions.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway wins on her third nomination. This seems to be where all goodwill for Les Miz (what there is of it in this unforgiving world where a loaf of bread will get you nineteen) is funnelling for the last six weeks of awards season.
BEST SONG
No way they're not going for Adele's Skyfall here. They'll want her the globally popular chanteuse on the stage.
BEST SCORE
No idea! I'm going to guess Life of Pi just for the helluva it.
BEST SCREENPLAY
I'm predicting Silver Linings Playbook with an outside shot for Lincoln or Django
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Amour is the frontrunner but the Globes aren't predictable and they were voting before the beautiful multi-nomination announcement for Amour at the Oscars and no way is Haneke schmoozing so for my no guts no glory shocker surprise prediction I'll say: A Royal Affair
ANIMATED FILM
I've really no idea what's happening with this category. Generally the Globes go with the Oscar frontrunner but there isn't one this year. Last year they chose TinTin. From 2006-2010 they went with Pixar films (yes, even Cars) so I'm guessing Brave even though it's hardly scored a bullseye this season.
YOURS?
Reader Comments (30)
I'm sticking with Les Miz for Best Picture (Comedy/Musical). If they awarded Sweeney Todd over Juno and Dreamgirls over Little Miss Sunshine, I see no reason why they wouldn't choose Les Miserables over Silver Linings Playbook. Well, other than Weinstein, which is a pretty big reason.
Also, I've learned that, when in doubt in the Best Picture (Drama) category, always go for the one with the most nominations, even if it's not the one with the most buzz. That's how Babel beat The Departed in 2006 and Atonement beat No Country for Old Men in 2007. So while I think it could definitely go to Argo, I'm going to stick with Lincoln here.
I'm also going to go out on a slight limb and predict Philip Seymour Hoffman to win Best Supporting Actor, which would really cement him as a big player in the Oscar race since he also won the BFCA.
Nat, do you realize that if Les Miz won as much as you want it too it would have equal or worse a reaction than Crash did...would you really want that? That aside, I do like Jackman in the film and would like it if he won, but that's probably because I like him in general.
I could see Bigelow winning since Cameron won the Globe in 2009.
If your prediction comes true, there will make 2 GG winners (Sup Actor & Director) not even nominated for Oscar. There were times when one says GG is the crystal ball prediction for Oscar. Guess not so much anymore nowadays.
Hmm and why are you not feeling Haneke for the Foreign Film Globe Nathaniel?
They did gave him the prize for THE WHITE RIBBON... Which on my book is a huge deal because they could've played it safe like the Oscars. They had BROKEN EMBRACES from Almodovar there. And UN PROPHETE and they picked Haneke even so.
Check my blog for them!!!
BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
1. Argo
2. Lincoln
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Django Unchained
5. Life of Pi
BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL or COMEDY
At first it was gonna be Les Mis, now it's definitely Silver Linings Playbook.
1. SLP
2. Les Mis
3. Marigold Hotel
4. Moonrise Kingdom
5. Salmon Fishing
ACTRESS (DRAMA) and ACTRESS (COMEDY)
Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence. I still think Emanuelle Riva could maybe take the Oscar if others start to think its too soon for these ladies, or the split just makes it happen.
1. Jessica Chastain
2. Naomi Watts
3. Marion
4. Rachel Weisz
5. Helen Mirren
1. Jennifer
2. Judi
3. Meryl
4. Maggie
5. Emily
ACTOR (DRAMA) and ACTOR (COMEDY)
I'm still going for Hugh Jackman.
1. DDL
2. Joaquin
3. Denzel
4. Richard Gere
5. John Hawkes
BEST DIRECTOR
Affleck
1. Affleck
2. Spielberg
3. Bigelow
4. Tarantino
5. Lee
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
I agree on DiCaprio, I had been predicting him since he was nominated. I actually thought he would win the Globe and then the oscar, but apparently not haha.
1. DiCaprio
2. TLJ
3. PSH
4. Christoph Waltz
5. Alan Arkin
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne. Obviously.
1. Anne
2. Sally
3. Helen
4. Nicole
5. Amy
BEST SONG
Skyfall. Duh.
BEST SCORE
No idea
BEST SCREENPLAY
Could go several ways.
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Amour?
ANIMATED FILM
Frankenweenie
1. Frankenweenie
2. Brave
3. Wreck-It-Ralph
4. Rise of the Guardians
5. Hotel Transylvania
If Ben Affleck wins again...that will be so cringe-worthy. And also, I don't want Oscar voters to have to feel like they need to make up for anything by giving Best Picture to Argo. I mean, it was OK and so is he, but the directors nominated are very deserving.
Not Ang Lee; David O Russell; or Steven boring Spielberg.
I actually hope Affleck wins the Golden Globe, the DGA, and the BAFTA, not because he would be my personal choice for Best Director (he's definitely not), but because it would be so great to finally be able to go into Oscar night being totally clueless about a major award category.
I don't understand the sudden defeatism about Silver Linings Playbook winning everything. It did not do nearly as well here as at the oscars. It got half the nominations it got there, and it could've gotten all 8 here if the globes had loved it all that much. So they may not have been crazy for Les Miz, but the nom totals say they were just as not crazy for SLP. The globes still love musicals and big global epic things, so I say Les Miz takes it. However, I do agree Nat that what had seemed like an easy get for Hugh Jackman will probably tilt Cooper's way. I think Cooper and Lawrence win, and then Les Miz takes picture and supporting actress. But hey, you could be right. 100% on it, however, sounds like you refuse to entertain even a 1% of a Les Miz win in order to shield yourself from disappointment. I say it's 55/45 Les Miz over SLP and 45/55 on Jackman/Cooper.
Otherwise, I'd bet on Lincoln for Drama pic, Actor, and Screenplay, Chastain in ZDT for Drama actress, Argo for director, Leo for supporting, Life of Pi for score, Skyfall for song.
If Leo wins, he'd better pull a Ben Affleck. "I'd like to thank the Academy..."
But Marina, the difference between Affleck's snub and DiCaprio's snub is that Affleck was nominated everywhere else, and EVERYONE thought an Oscar nod would follow. Leo was ONLY nominated at the Golden Globes, and he was far from a lock in his category. Him sounding bitter about not being nominated would come across as a lot more self-absorbed than Affleck saying it, in my opinion. At least Affleck had the excuse that seemingly everyone had gotten his hopes up.
Marina: Leo certainly can say that, but the effect won't be as strong as Ben's. For one, Leo wasn't a big lock in his category in the first place thus not a big shock when he didn't make the cut. And Ben's speech happened on the same day as the Oscar nom so the shock was still there. Now it's been a few days if he still say that it would make him seems really really bitter and can't let go, so he should re-consider that.
PJ & Edwin: I know. It was pretty clear that he wasn't going to receive a nomination, unlike Affleck, whose snub was a major shock. My comment was meant more as a joke (and a mockery of the people who think DiCaprio's snub was an indication that the Academy "just doesn't like him", but it's obviously not as simple as that).
If the ballots were due After the Oscar nominations, I'd agree with SLP and Cooper, but I think they were due the 9th, which gives the voters a chance to not have abandoned ship yet from their musical ways.
Would love to see Rachel Weisz pull another surprise win like she did with the New York Critics.
Sally Field has been winning her share of awards and hope she does the same tomorrow night over Anne Hathaway. No one has a chance against DDL but I'm pulling for Hugh in the musical/comedy category.
Here's mine.
Argo
Ben Affleck
SLP
DDL
Watts
Cooper
Lawrence
I think you're underestimating 'Les Mis' as well. Here are my picks... pretty on book IMO, which is probably not the way to go with the Globes.
Picture (Drama): Argo
Picture (Comedy/Musical): Les Miserables
Director: Ben Affleck
Actor (Drama): Daniel Day Lewis
Actress (Drama): Jessica Chastain
Actor (Comedy/Musical): Hugh Jackman
Actress (Comedy/Musical): Jennifer Lawrence
Supporting Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Screenplay: Lincoln
Score: Life of Pi
Song: Skyfall
Foreign Language Film: Amour
Animated Feature: Brave
More importantly, Tina Fey AND Amy Poehler talking to me intermittently for 3 hours!?! WHEEEE!!!!!
After watching Silver Linings Playbook and Les Miserables yesterday; i definitely want Silver Linings Playbook to win everything it's nominated for, I loved the film, it was funny, touching and dramatic. Also, Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence were perfectly cast and were incredible to watch would love to see them win at the globes; also hope David O Russell wins for screenplay not just at the globes but at the Oscars too, he did a amazing job of adapting a difficult book into an incredible film.
On the other hand, I hated Les Miserables; boring direction from Tom Hooper who was rightfully snubbed by the Academy; plus one of the worst scripts I've ever seen; it was song after song after song after song etc. Never did i think after sitting for what i thought was 2 hours; that it would turn out that I actually had only be watching the film for 36 minutes! I totally agree with David Denby of The New Yorker "This Movie is not just bad . . . It’s terrible; it’s dreadful. Overbearing, pretentious, madly repetitive."
Maybe:
BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
1. Argo (2. Lincoln/Zero Dark Thirty)
BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL or COMEDY
1. Silver Linings Playbooks (2. Les Miz)
ACTRESS (DRAMA) and ACTRESS (COMEDY)
1. Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty (2. but I would love to see Marion or Naomi win)
1. Jennifer Lawrence - Lilver Sinings Playbook (Comedy)
ACTOR (DRAMA) and ACTOR (COMEDY)
1. Daniel Day Lewis - Lincoln (Drama)
1. Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook, 2. Hugh Jackman - Les Miz (Comedy/Musical)
BEST DIRECTOR
Argo - Ben Affleck
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained, 2. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway - Les Miz
BEST SONG
1. Skyfall (2. Les Miz)
BEST SCORE
1. Lincoln (2. Anna Karenina) 3. I hope Life of Pi makes it
BEST SCREENPLAY
1. Lincoln (2. Liver Linings Playbook)
BEST FOREIGN FILM
1. Amour (2. The Intouchables)
ANIMATED FILM
1. Brave 2. Frankenweenie
Just posted mine on my blog :-D
Poor Affleck. Seriously, the pain of accepting these awards with no shot at Oscar must be rough. Maybe the Oscars will pull a Satellites and write in Affleck for the win ;-)
Brett - "song after song after song after song" you do realize that's the point of a sung-through musical, though, yes? That's what Les Miz is. Any other construction would have been totally unfaithful to the soul of the material.
I'm kind of hoping they go in a different direction than Affleck and Argo, just so it isn't so awkward to watch.
Nathaniel R - That's all well and good but that doesn't mean it changes my opinion on the film. I still think the film is terrible and hope I never have to watch it again.
Brett -- i don't expect it to change your opinion but to blame the screenplay is weird since that's the material: a series of songs that tell a story.
Nathaniel R - But that's why I didn't like it; I would of preferred to have heard some conversational dialogue between the characters instead on songs all the time. Yes that might not be faithful to the source material; but that's my opinion.
What about the other categories (TV) ? Will Julianne Moore win her first Golden Globe tonight?
Best Picture Drama: Lincoln - Spoiler: Argo
Actor Drama: Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress Drama: Jessica Chastain - Spoiler: Naomi Watts
Best Picture Comedy/Musical: SLP - Spoiler: Les Mis.
Best Actor: Hugh Jackman - Spoiler: Bradley Cooper
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Best Director: Steven Spielberg - SPoiler: Ben Affleck
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones - Spoiler: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Best Screenplay:Quentin Tarantino - Spoiler: Tony Kushner
Original Score: John Williams, Lincoln - Spoiler: Mychael Danna, Life of Pi
Original Song: "Skyfall"
Well Nat, you can breathe a sigh of relief. Your beloved Les Misérables won three of these bad boys, including the big one. I finally saw it today and I get both sides of the argument. There's so much to love about the movie, but it's bogged down by some directorial choices and pacing issues that also exist in the stage musical (though I actually thought Russell Crowe did pretty well with a thankless role, I wonder why the musical chastises Javert so much, they could do so much with the character). I do, however, prefer Silver Linings Playbook. I really don't get why you disliked it so much, I thought it was one of the best uses of the rom-com formula in a long time and as someone who went to college in Philadelphia, I was able to appreciate the family atmoshpere of it all. I can see why the Academy responded to it (though I'm a little bummed that they didn't respond to my darling Moonrise Kingdom). Anyway, be happy the Globes share your love for Les Miz.....