Random Thoughts on Upcoming "Best Supporting Actress" Race
Friday, May 24, 2013 at 1:00PM Being a month late to my usual "April Fool's" predictions has caused me a lot of behind-the-scenes strife. Trying to stare into the open future through a crystal ball when things are actually happening in the present overseas (i.e. Cannes) is incredibly ineffective. Next year I must be more prompt and buy a plane ticket. I have made a few adjustments on the charts mostly in regards to more research on American Hustle and Saving Mr Banks but also in regards to Cannes hits like All is Lost and Philomena (I know, I know -- it didn't show but it still had a great week!).
Carey sings in "Inside Lleywn Davis". The last time she sang onscreen ("Shame") critics fell madly in love but mysteriously zero awards traction happened.
Cannes buzz
A note of caution to everyone taking each word out of Cannes like its holy scrit. Cannes can be like a magician's misdirect in regards to the Oscar race because for every Jean Dujardin and The Artist there are ten films and performances that get people hot and bothered there under those very special circumstances that don't go anywhere in the real world or, for our purposes, don't excite the mainstream sensibility of Oscar. And quite a few films each decade see their critical fates changed once they leave the festival circuit with its foolishly instant pronouncements of grandeurs and foibles. Take it all with a grain of salt or at least a whiff of the ocean-scented air. Especially if a new Coen Bros' film takes the Palme D'Or. Cannes always loves them so it's like Michael Haneke or the Dardenne Brothers taking a prize. What else did you expect?
But on to this afternoon's topic...
Best Supporting Actress Chart. Enjoy!
This category, if I know you as well as I think I do, is your first or second favorite of all of them. So I'm eager to gather all your opinions; if I had two comments for every complaint about the wait for the charts there'd be so many to read I'd never get through them all!
the first official still of Blue Jasmine
Happy-Go-Lucky's Revenge?
I've become so obsessed with this still from Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine -- everything from the set decoration, to the color, to the imbalance of the composition, to the weirdly expectant but sorrowful expression on La Blanchett's face excites me. So the only person I knew I'd be predicting a year in advance was Sally Hawkins lurking in the background. Consider it "Poppy's revenge!" It might be wishful thinking on my part but Hawkins is such a fine actress. Consider, for a moment, those remarkably multi-faceted expressive lead performances in Happy-Go-Lucky (a film as good as she was in it) and Made in Dagenham (which couldn't keep up with her) that I'd love to see her steal this film and have a leading lady career. I fear that if she doesn't have a hit of some sort soon (critical, Oscar or box office...any would do) we won't see except in tiny parts. But of course counting on Woody Allen is impossible these days. For every Midnight in Paris there are two To Rome With Loves but Michael told me to be optimistic, so I shall be!
Best "Supporting" Actress in a Leading Role
We can't know until we see the films who will be attempting category fraud this year but the most likely culprits are Julia Roberts in August: Osage County (is she too big of a star to sell the supporting lie? and why even try to sell it when if the film is great a two-lead nomination IS possible. See Amadeus, Thelma & Louise, etcetera) and maybe Amy Adams in American Hustle or Her... depending on the size of her role in either or both. I'm also personally curious to see what the overall response will be to The Spectacular Now. I didn't quite get the Shailene Woodley fanaticism for The Descendants and I think she's better in this film but as leading roles go there's not a ton of screentime. Supporting might be wiser given her age but the film is probably too youth-centric to make Oscar waves regardless.
Supporting Long-Suffering Wife/Girlfriend
It's Oscar's favorite role in this category, possibly because it's such a common role that it's rare to see a year go by without several candidates to choose from this year Nicole Kidman, Naomie Harris, Oprah Winfrey, and more are trying this man-adjacent thing on for Oscar size.
Martyr Mom / Monster Mom
It's the Oscar equivalent of the Virgin/Whore complex for ladies of a certain age. They like their screen mamas either saintly or evil. There's less to choose from this year in regards to this favored template but what of Octavia Spencer in Fruitvale or Kristin Scott Thomas in Only God Forgives?
Just For Fun... A Few of Nathaniel's Favorite Goddesses
Here are a few performances I'm curious about that I don't have any Oscar dreams for.
- What will Michelle Pfeiffer do with her return to mob comedy in Malavita. It's possible I care too much because I ♥ Married to the Mob so much.
- How is Julianne Moore's magic-fearing blood-shaming mom in Carrie or her blood magic sorceress in Seventh Son (and, regarding the latter, can she top La Pfeiffer's blood magic sorceress from Stardust?)
- Is anything going to happen with Viola Davis anytime soon with all these random supporting roles (Ender's Game, Prisoners, Eleanor Rigby). GIVE HER LEADS, HOLLYWOOD. YOU'RE WASTING HER TIME AND OURS! DIDN'T YOU WATCH THE HELP?
- Juliette Lewis in August: Osage County. She's been a favorite since Cape Fear and I'm thrilled she's working in a reputable movie again. Let's hope she's great even if she's unlikely to get past the Streep/Roberts/Martindale blockade in terms of respect and awards traction.
Reader Comments (72)
Drive got a sound nod. But, yeah, only god forgives doesn't have a prayer. Not that it wanted one.
Drive got a sound nod. But yeah only god forgives doesn't have a prayer.
How 'bout Sienna Miller in Foxcatcher?. I love her 'cause she's a stunning creature...But I also think she's a great actress, who's done alot of under-the-radar and/or bad films.
But if Foxcatcher catches on with the academy and the critics, she could get a nomination, right?
I would love for that to happen...
My predix:
1. Oprah Winfrey - The Butler: Sorry Adams, but I would support Oprah
2. Amy Adams - American Hustle: Perennial nominee
3. Cameron Diaz - The Counselor: I'm not neccesary confident on her, but she's the most likely newbie
4. Julia Roberts - August: Osage County: Category fraud
5. Octavia Spencer - Fruitvale Station: The reviews are in
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6. Cate Blanchett - The Monuments Men: She's waiting for a place in top five
7. Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine: Woody Allen's actresses have luck in this category
8. June Squibb - Nebraska: She has the reviews and Paramount's actress this season
9. Carey Mulligan - Inside Llewyn Davis: While the film has the raves, she was hardly mentioned. She needs the coattail effect
10.Margo Martindale - August: Osage County: While her role is pitch perfect, she hardly received good notes by test screeners.
Why does everyone assume that Oprah is supporting for The Butler? She was featured in the trailer quite a bit! She could just as easily be campaigned in LEAD.
Akim - With Streep, Dench and KIdman (With the alternative of Cotillard) ruling the lead category, not gonna happen. Also, in the trailer she's supporting. Maybe a female lead character, but still Whitaker is the only lead.
And finally I agree with last spots, unless Scott Thomas could surprise this weekend, it's seems than Scott Thomas is out of competition. First, the film is released in Video-On-Demand by RadiUs TWC (Not neccesary in the hands of Harvey Weinstein), and the company only remarks the VOD release, not theater release. If that's true, OGF could be disqualified. Also, if Drive, as an acclaimed film with critical support only got a random sound nomination...
Michelle Pfeiffer's best years were arguably Meryl's most difficult years with audiences (1987 to 1994 or so). Then you had Julia Roberts exploding and Michelle becoming less popular. It's a miracle that most of these women are still working in film. At some tipping point, however, the Weinstein boat gets too heavy and some of these gals are going to be shoved off the boat.
Predictions:
Amy Adams, American Hustle (though I keep on hearing that she is lead but perhaps this and Her will finally propel her out)
Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
-They better not put Roberts in supporting.
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Cate Blanchett, Monuments Men
June Squibb, Nebraska
Outside Looking In: Octavia Spencer, Oprah, Mulligan, KST,
Also, Nathaniel ditto on love to Married to the Mob. And re: Viola, at least in Eleanor Rigby's case she and Chastain are obviously good friends and that seems to be more of helping a sister out since that is an indie. But still, in complete agreement. Hopefully the Mann project really happens in addition to Denzel getting that Fences adaptation off the ground.
@ Bacio
Now where is that big ego of hers?
I don't know if that was addressed at me.
My point was exactly that I don't understand how you can criticize someone for having a big ego (allegedly), and also for forgetting that ego to campaign as supporting. One thing or the other.
Honestly, I hope she gives the hell of a performance that will make forget any other aspect and that will silence haters.
Nicole Kidman for The Railway Man, please! *fingers crossed*
Iggy - I would second that petition too, it was a real pleasure reading Stinky Lulu..I (re)discovered many awesome performances thanks to that site!
If, as many people suggested (and I am not one of them), Laura Linney had taken Barbara's role in A:OC, we would be assuming completeley that she would be campaigned as supporting. But Julia Roberts is still a big name and she has a good chance as lead.
Category fraud is sometimes difficult to identify (for example, I think that Jennifer Lawrence should have gone as supporting last year), but this time is clear that both Roberts and Streep are leads. I fully agree with Nathaniel; if the film is great (and I hope it will be considering the source material), two lead nominations are possible. Moreover, the image of both Roberts and Streep as lead actress nominees for the same film would be irresistible and would refer to glorious cases such as 'All about Eve' or 'Suddenly, last summer'. In any case, I think that Roberts needs a nomination to be fully considered as a good mature actress. So I guess she would be included in the most convenient category...
@ iggy. I see... ;) I think she doesnt have rhat big an ego, thats why she d be all right going supporting. She was campaigned supporting for Stepmom, when she was a lot bigger fame-wise, and her role was arguably co-lead too.
But I do want her to go Lead. And even if she doesnt get nominated, most people say that she is brillant (but of course overshadowed by Meryl).
Please please give it to Amy Adam so we are done with her. I can't believe she could have 4 nomination when people like Nicole Kidman only had 3, Naomi watts only had 2
in order for julia roberts to be nominated, she would need to be the top pick in many oscar voters' ballots which is almost insane and impossible when you think she is in a movie with an oscar favorite, meryl streep. even if she gives a better performance than nicole kidman (who appears to be in shallow supermodel mode in grace), nicole has a bigger chance to nab a best actress nom because you see harvey batting for her very early in the race and she's more than willing to campaign this early too. the woman is hungry for an oscar. i think julia should just agree to be campaigned for best actress. she WILL not get nominated if that happens but she doesn't really seem to care about oscars anyway.
carrion -- except that it's not insane. I mean anne baxter got nominated opposite Bette Davis for All About Eve and Davis is obviously the better actress of the two and its hard to imagine people preferring Baxter. For Amadeus, F Murray Abraham was clearly gonig to win and yet Thomas Hulce got nominated with him.
it's possible to get two leading nominations in the same category for the same film (we see it all the time in supporting actress and used to see it in leads) so as the years go by i am respecting Frost/Nixon so much just for being honest for a change in campaigning even if it meant a non-nomination for Frost.
Nathaniel, I'm not disputing that Bette Davis' is the iconic performance of All About Eve. But I love Anne Baxter, her work can be a tad theatrical at times-I have to say when she slips into MISS Anne Baxter mode it usually heightens my enjoyment of her work, but without her skill in portraying Eve's silky villainy the overall film wouldn't be what it is. She should have gone supporting and they both would have probably picked up awards.
Carrion: please!! As if u have seen any part of grace to accuse Nicole Kidman of nothing.
Tell me which actor is not into Oscar?
Don't forget Sharon Stone in Lovelace. Weinstein bought it. She was singled out as a stand-out when it showed at Sundance, and we all know she knows how work the circuit.
I don't predict, but would at-least have her as a possible mention?
joel -- well, sure. a lot of people really like Baxter in that movie and agree that it wouldn't quite work without her but if you're talking about ballots and hierarchial placements I just think it's the ideal film to reference in terms of "it hardly stops people from voting for both players!" and i think you can make that argument for Queen Latifah in Chciago too. I mean WHO put her at #1 when CZJ was around for the same film? And yet people did.
Jesper - Actually it was RadiUs TWC -The filiar company of VOD by Harvey-: It's exactly the same problem like Kristin Scott Thomas in OGF
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