New Oscar Predix! (And What Of Consecutive Nomination Heat?)
Saturday, May 4, 2013 at 1:00PM As I was constructing the new Best Picture charts -- yes, they're finally up. Have a looksie -- it occurred to me that I was foolishly betting against a lot of regular Oscar players. Why couldn't I find room for, say, George Clooney (Monuments Men), Joel Coen & Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis), and Martin Scorsese (Wolf of Wall Street), for example? The answer came in three parts.
Silver Linings Playbook + The Fighter ÷ 1970s = American Hustle
One. Willful Contrarianism.
I can be stubbornly off-trend and I believe you should be in very early predictions. A truth: before anyone has seen any of the films, anything is possible. Some of this stems from the wishful thinking of prophetic punditry i.e. if I refuse to believe that the Oscars are like the Emmys with the same shows (aka directors/actors) being nominated each year, than it will be so.
Two. 'Looks Good On Paper' Predictions Are Lazy.
If you only bet on the regular players you will usually score okay but never great in long lead Oscar nominations; Oscar lists are almost never made up of only obvious on-paper players. I have quite a solid track record in terms of year-in-advance predictions that I'd hold up against anyones. Sure I sometimes go 0 for 5 before anyone has seen anything but I've often scored 2 of 5 regularly with my year in advance pics (and 3 of 5 and higher in some rare cases) which is more than most can claim with any accuracy. Which is to say that usually when people claim to have been unusually prophetic a long time in advance they are the types who have faulty memories or change their predictions so often, daily and casually and with "or" and "and" caveats, that at some point or another they have predicted everything and thus predicted correctly. I trust you know the type of punditry, amateur and otherwise, I'm talking about.
Three. Nobody Gets Nominated Every Time.
Well except John Williams and Meryl Streep. But those are "special" cases. It's this last point I want to talk about. For instance, I know that I SHOULD predict Monuments Men since it's a Christmas release set in World War II from a multiple Oscar winner who everyone loves. But I just kept thinking about consecutive Best Picture nominations (not consecutive years but consecutive in directorial filmographies) so I looked into it a little bit.
Stop right there! Nobody gets nominated every time
Here are the 'they're always nominated!' assumed regulars vying for attention this year.
- Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street). Up until this past decade he'd never had a consecutive Best Picture run, nope, not even two in a row. He did achieve three-in-a-row recently though (Gangs of New York, The Aviator, and his only winner The Departed). I'm just not feeling Wolf at the moment which strikes me as more Shutter Island (0 noms) than Hugo (11 noms). You?
- The Coen Bros (Inside Llewyn Davis). They've won four Oscars together but their very peculiar movies aren't always in the AMPAS wheelhouse. Their only consecutive BP nods were A Serious Man (that's still so weird to think of as a Best Picture contender, right?) and True Grit.
- Alexander Payne. Nebraska, which I am betting on for a Best Picture nomination sounds too modest for Oscar but the inexplicable (to me) love for The Descendants suggests that he might be in the zone right now. If Nebraska does win the nomination that would be three Best Pics in a row (after Sideways, and The Descendants) which would be quite a turnaround since his earliest (great) pictures were roundly ignored by awards bodies.
- David O. Russell. He has virtually the same story as Payne... early great pictures routinely ignored until it finally clicked with Oscar. A nomination for American Hustle would also give him three in a row (after The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook and with those cast lists fused). I already feel stoopid for leaving this at #12. Maybe it's the 70s setting throwing me or the title changes? Trivia Note: This is Russell's very first period piece and given that he reads so contemporary it'll be interesting to watch him try.
- George Clooney (Monuments Men). In the past seven years, Clooney has racked up 8 nominations and 2 statues from 7 different films (whew). In short, he owns Hollywood. This WW II Art Rescue drama with an all star cast marks his fifth directorial outing. The only one of the four previous he directed to win a Best Picture nomination was Good Night, and Good Luck. (2005)
- Bennett Miller. This 46 year old director is remarkably under-the-radar given his track record. But, get this, if Foxcatcher wins a Best Picture nomination (as I'm predicting) that'd be three in a row for him following Capote and Moneyball. That'd be three-for-three, too, since his only other feature is a documentary.
More Director = Best Picture Trivia?
Sure, why not...
Directors With the Most Best Picture Nominations
(which is not to imply that they were also nominated for producing, merely that their films were nominated)
Wyler's record may prove impossible to beat
He also holds the record for most Best Picture bids consecutively (*by year*) as he had a horse in the race in every Oscar competition starting with one of my favorite pictures (Dodsworth, 1936) and ending with a Best Picture winner (Mrs Miniver, 1942). Seven years! Such a great filmmaker. And prolific too so not all the pictures he made in that seven year run were nominated for the big prize.
Despite Spielberg's impressive Oscar record his golden triumphs aren't usually consecutive. The most he's ever managed "in a row" as a filmmaker is 2, which he's done a few times. And he definitely trails his fellow oft-rewarded filmmakers in the amount of acting nominations his films gather
Crowdsourcing!
If anyone knows who has the most consecutive Best Picture nominations in terms of the order of the films they made (not consecutive by calendar year since most directors don't make a picture every year) please share in the comments. Maybe it's Wyler but it could be Capra or Coppola (who both managed four) or someone else?
Reader Comments (39)
Clooney seems to have the right narrative. As you said, his material is juicy, he's beloved and with only 1 Best Pic nod to his directorial name, he may be due (can someone be due for a Best Picture nomination when they just won a Best Picture Oscar the year before?)
Yet.... I see where you're coming from. Clooney the director is such an odd beast. His films usually have a very small scope and dramatic arc, which seems ill-suited for a WW2 drama. So who bends, the genre or the director?
And I've been thinking about Oldboy lately. I think that could get in if it's a hit. Sure it's generey, but AMPAS does like their genre movies manly and violent. Plus everyone seems really eager for a Spike Lee comeback.
I dunno... I could go on and on. This is such a weird year.
I think it's indeed Wyler who has the most consecutive Best Picture noms for feature films with five: The Letter, The Little Foxes, Mrs. Miniver, The Best Years Of Our Lives, The Heiress. And the film that followed, Detective Story, must have been close to a Best Picture nom.
"C.R.A.Z.Y is half special anyway."
I think our friendship might be over.
Only half special? It's only one of the best films of the past decade.
I'm not this confident about August Osage County. Oscar voting system requires PASSION behind the #1 and #2 placements and I can't see this picture getting them. In a hypothetical parallel, I think that Doubt would not be a best pic nominee even in an expanded field, besides its 4 acting noms.
I feel like my anticipation of Foxcatcher has nil to do with Bennett Miller (I loathe Capote with a passion and feel like Moneyball cemented him as a director-for-hire in writer movies since Sorkin's re-write is essentially the star besides Jonah Hill and Chris Pratt's impressive turns). But he is a previous nominee, he'll be recognized if the Carell and Ruffalo performances are the goods. It also helps that Annapurna is supporting this movie, which is surprising as the true-life story seems pretty accessible, but this seems like Annapurna's least aim-high movie since Lawless (which I liked but consider Hillcoat's skill and the fact Dominik, PTA, and Bigelow all went for it under the same studio last year and it comes off so aim-for-the-middle).
And I let out an audible 'Ugh!' with the idea Clooney is due as a director. He made one good movie and since then he seems to be on a mission to win nothing but awards because Good Night and Good Luck won zilch that year. Even though I was meh on Silver Linings Playbook, I think David O. Russell should really be the potential nominee carrying the 'he is due' card around like a cross. That might be a matter of taste because with exception to Good Night and Good Luck, I would rather re-watch any of his movies over Clooney's films any time, any day. Also, American Hu$tle (I added the dollar sign before the marketing did) looks definitively DOR. It may be because he was not directly working under Harvey this time but it is a period set movie of a true-life story but Russell's style is so manic that I feel like it will not get caught in an identity crisis that Argo was for me with its quaint earnestness of 'Golly gee, isn't this true story intriguing?' that exhausted after its first hour.
If Gravity and Cuaron got nominated, I would be so happy. I want good, smart sci-fi to get respect beyond design and special effects prizes.
And Nathaniel, it is not just you about Wolf on Wall Street. Though I have never been a fan of the pairing, the Leo-Marty collaboration is tired and I wished Marty would just do original stories with a good screenwriter than passion projects and adaptations. The ensemble performances of Jonah Hill, Matthew McConaughey, and Kyle Chandler intrigue me the most.
I think you might be overstating Captain Phillips. Greengrass is a skilled technician (even though he brought a terrible trend of shaky-cam to action movies) but I feel like people don't want movies that feel like last year's nominees. People will jump to make Argo and Zero Dark Thirty comparisons with Captain Phillips (though I view any ZDT comparison this movie could muster is a major compliment).
Still, my BP rankings as of 5 set nominees:
August: Osage County (I will say only movie without a Best Director nod of this group)
Monuments Men
Foxcatcher
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave
Potential leapers:
Wolf on Wall Street (Some critics will always be under Marty's spell but also note this is the first non-3D digital movie Scorsese has ever done)
American Hu$tle
The Counselor (Do you know who is due for a great movie? Ridley Scott!)
Blue Jasmine (If Midnight in Paris can get Woody that much notice, than any movie he makes can)
Gravity (Recognizable stars may help with this ambitious and technically complex as hell movie)
Captain Phillips (I still think slavery is bad and Nazism is bad is really going to be the only political stuff of the nominees but I think Hanks' performance may elevate it)
Outside Looking in:
Before Midnight (It did get Adapted Screenplay the last time so people know of the movie)
Fruitvale Station (Michael B. Jordan's performance may elevate it but sadly, I think there are members of the Academy who feel like a Steve McQueen vs. Ryan Cogler decision for Best Director nominee matters)
Dallas Buyer's Club (McConaughey gets its nomination but who knows)
Movies That Might get Just One Nomination but Will Simply Be Critical Darlings (This could easily be what happens to Gravity):
Inside Llewyn Davis (Let's be real, the Academy and the Coen Bros. are strange bedfellows)
The Spectacular Now
A Most Wanted Man
Prisoners
Her
Snowpiercer
The Past
Only Lovers Left Alive
Ain't Them Bodies Saints
Kill Your Darlings
Oldboy remake
They could either get a boatload of nominations of be labeled too bait-y:
Grace of Monaco
The Butler
Saving Mr. Banks
Serena
Labor Day
Though set in the 90's, doesn't Three Kings and The Fighter count as period pieces?
If Midnight in Paris can get Woody that much notice, than any movie he makes can
Dislike the movie all you like but, remember it could have been worse, it made people happy, and the studio a lot of money, which Allen movies don't normally do, make their money back.
Clooney was working hard behind the scenes for Argo, so I do think his own film will make it in...unless the reviews are Meh.
3rtful- I just found the way some characters were written, particularly female characters, and the resolution to the nostalgia trips in the movie to be obnoxious and simplistic (and not in a brilliant, effortless sense). I know some people loved it because it did still feel like it was a Woody Allen '70s shtick type of movie but yes, I feel like the fact a Woody Allen movie became a commercial success to be more of the story with Midnight in Paris. I have no idea about Blue Jasmine but like Moonrise Kingdom last year, it is as if Woody hired all of my favorite people to make a movie just for me though ixnay on Sargaard and Andrew Dice Clay.
"Though set in the 90's, doesn't Three Kings and The Fighter count as period pieces?"
It's weird, Three Kings was set not that far back from its 1999 release so I know some people who would not call it period, I even know people who connect it to War on Terror because of the Saddam Hussein connection. The Fighter did feel pretty 90s when I saw it though DOR definitely got anachronistic with some of the soundtrack. AH/Abscam looks like The Fighter turned up to 11 though the period of the late 70s-early 80s was a rough-patch in hair and fashion.
I like the choices. Some of these films are still shooting, so it's anyone's guess how they will turn out. If AOC is well received, John Wells is in. A large and talented cast do not direct themselves and make a good movie. I am least excited about the films with Leo, Hanks, Clooney, Damon, and Cooper. Those actors are not interesting to me right now but I welcome surprises. What about the movie with Marion Cotiilard and Jeremy Renner? I also hope The Railway Man delivers but have heard no buzz.
Jonah- I actually think Cooper's role in AH is a supporting role and I cannot ignore anything Amy Adams and Christian Bale are in, especially a DOR film.
And the movie you are thinking about is Lowlife/The Immigrant.
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will be nominated. May even win.
I am groovin on Cooper's look in that photo. One of my first crushes looked just like that.
Wait, there's another Robert A. posting on this site? But I'm the real Robert A!
Aren't I?
Robert A & Robert A.... --- attack of the clones!
Vince -- what's got you feeling so optimistic. It's a COMEDY those win Best Picture like one every 20 years. Plus it's a remake and those only win like once every 40 years.
i'm not trying to say NO just "what do you know that i don't"
/3rtful -- i guess The Fighter might count but it didn't feel period exactly (and wasn't far back) but Three Kings was about the 90s in the 90s so, no.
That's Bale on the right in that photo? OMG.
I'm feeling pretty bullish about Saving Mr. Banks, but maybe that's because I'm a pessimist and a third Best Picture winner in a row that's a movie about movies seems like something that would happen.
I hope that 'Fruitvale Station' doesn't get any major nominations. It's predictable, terribly written, and the acting ranges from serviceable to awful. A lot of people are predicting Octavia Spencer, but she would be so undeserving...
I was listening to Pete Hammond a few weeks ago, and it got a lot of buzz from CinemaCon (confirmed on various blogs), which he seemed casually confident in. Comparisons were made to Forrest Gump. I generally try to take measured reactions to such information, but my instinct tells me not to ignore this. Ben Stiller has been kicking for a while, and it just may be his time. For what it's worth, it would be currently #1 on my prediction's list.
But, then, I also have Monuments Men, American Hustle, and August in my current Top 5. While I don't see a lot of your guesses, I kind of like how you willfully think outside the box. Your Nebraska and Twelve Years a Slave predictions are great. I'm also thinking Before Midnight and The Counselor have small, but outside shots, with Gravity also on the bubble. My instinct says your Dallas Buyers, Railway Man, and Captain Phillips guesses are the weakest. I'm having doubts about Foxcatcher. But, I read an early version of the script, so maybe it has improved since then. A lot of potential there, anyway. If they manage to pull it off, it will be a pretty solid film. But, as it stands, Megan Ellison apparently is way more excited about her experience on American Hustle than Foxcatcher.
Fruitvale Station sounds like it may get in ala Beasts of the Southern Wild, Winter's Bone, Precious, etc. It also seems like a year that Harvey will have two BP nods.
I also have Wolf and Llewyn Davis at the bottom of my Top 10, but trying to think of a way to kick them out. The script to Saving Mr. Banks is VERY good. If it doesn't get a high nod count, it surely will get an acting nomination or two for Colin Farrell, Emma Thompson, and Tom Hanks. Under the 2009-2010 system, it may have had a better shot at BP, but I wouldn't rule it out. Also, Gatsby opens in six days, and we'll know for sure about that one.
i guess The Fighter might count but it didn't feel period exactly (and wasn't far back) but Three Kings was about the 90s in the 90s so, no.
Period is about the specifics of a particular time. Three Kings is about 1991. And so much transpired between then and 1999. I know The Fighter is also the early 90's — no matter how far into the present/future we get the 90's won't ever feel cinematically period.
My current BP Predictions:
1. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
2. Nebraska
3. August: Osage County
4. Fruitvale Station
5. Monuments Men
6. American Hustle
7. Twelve Years a Slave
8. The Wolf of Wall Street
9. Before Midnight
10. Inside Llewyn Davis
Alts: Gravity, Saving Mr. Banks, The Counselor
Based on nothing except gut feelings:
- They are always happy to include Scorsese again. They consider him one of the greats. If the movie is well received, they won't blink before throwing him another nod.
- Payne and Russell are in the club, and will now have pockets of fans who support not only nods for them, but wins.
- George Clooney the actor is a huge smash with the Academy; George Clooney the director has one previous nod, and the Ides of March barely caught a nomination. Is this going to be a big Christmas play? Maybe a War Horse BP nod with no Director deal? Not sure.
- Bennett Miller reminds me of Stephen Daldry - Oscar roylaty but not really seen that way. That said, this movie doesn't sound like bait at all. My guess is this ends his streak.
- The Coens are their own category. Maybe a strong comparison would be Woody Allen - the Academy loves their best work but is happy to ignore their lesser-known work. I don't know of anyone who strongly feels they need a second BP, so it would just have to be a wonderful film with a stronger narrative than anyone else.
My guesses for now:
American Hustle
August: Osage County (sounds like a dominating force)
The Butler (disaster or SAG winner... or both)
Fruitvale (they LOVE their Sundance/indie slot)
Grace of Monaco (they love their Oscar winner history mash-ups)
The Great Gatsby (this will either die at Cannes or become a huge force this season)
Nebraska
The Railway Man (they love WWII, when it lands with audiences)
Twelve Years a Slave (I feel like McQueen has built credibility - I could see a Director nod)
The Wolf of Wall Street
Gravity sounds like it's all about Bullock's character, so maybe a comeback Actress nod with nothing else. Greengrass will need a less action oriented film to come back. Before Midnight will get the Screenplay treatment. Scott's had a hard time with Oscar for ages. Dallas Buyers Club just doesn't strike me as their type of material. But, we have no idea really.
Vince: Two that I just can't believe no one's thought might actually penetrate the season: The World's End (nine years of building from Shaun of the Dead and it's been fifteen years since the last comedy won Best Picture and giving it to the Third Flavour of the Cornetto trilogy might make a shocking amount of sense) and Sin City: A Dame to Kill For (T2 Syndrome.)
Volvagia: Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
"But, as it stands, Megan Ellison apparently is way more excited about her experience on American Hustle than Foxcatcher."
I'm not one to defend Bennett Miller ever but Ellison and Russell are buddies and deep admirers of each other. When DOR says that she is 'saving cinema' with Annapurna Pictures, I think it is understandable that Ellison is much more zealous in promoting the hell out of DOR's movie. Also, that movie is still in production, and I believe a lot of Foxcatcher's production happened in the thick of ZDT and The Master Oscar campaigns.
I actually think Foxcatcher is really bait-y on the surface with it being a true story, real-life figures who were minor celebrities, and mental illness but if Carell can really tap into duPont, then it becomes something really special. Here's a on-set still of him in character with Channing Tatum. Virtually unrecognizable.
http://www.darkhorizons.com/assets/0019/9532/foxcatch.jpg
To me that screams Oscar and honestly I wonder what was that movie's story pre-production; such as if Miller and Futerman ever pitched it to a major studio and if they were denied by those major studios.
No guts no glory: Labor Day, just because I have this feeling Jason Reitman is gonna win best director some day.
CMG: Thanks for that info. I was pretty bullish on Foxcatcher in March, but, then I read an early version of the script and thought I may have misstepped. Of course, that was an old script. But, also consider that Sony has 1) Monuments Men, 2) American Hustle, 3) Captain Phillips, and 4) Foxcatcher. (And Elysium, for that matter) Something has got to give. I have a hard time seeing Monuments Men at least not get into the Field of Ten. But, Sony getting more than two films in for Best Picture seems like a longshot. Of course, there's the chance that somehow Hustle or Monuments gets pushed back to 2014, I suppose. I won't rule out Foxcatcher and still see the potential for something big happening (especially if Carell nails it, as you mentioned), but I have definitely cooled down on it.
Sony with that many awards movies scare me. They've really let down their previous contenders (The Social Network, Zero Dark Thirty, and Django Unchained, the latter luckily had Weinstein magic). They don't know how to do Oscar campaigns. They get the top horses in quality and let them fall back with some terrible miscalculations. Monuments Men luckily has Clooney who seems like the AMPAS golden boy but the rest of them have to fend for themselves a bit.
I am also a bit anxious about Foxcatcher. For some reason the Sienna Miller casting seems off and I am to a huge fan of Futerman and Miller's last movie together which I thought was an insensitive hit-job on Capote. I think my earlier comparison with Lawless is still apt though I thought that movie had a lot of good things going on in it.. Foxcatcher seems the least cinematically ambitious in Annapurna's short-life, almost a movie with no business being indepdently financed but rather the type of true story movie cranked out every year. Hopefully the performances can sell it.
My first thoughts:
-I think Captain Phillips will be the film with Sony will give up, unless it became a phenomenon. Monuments Men has George Clooney and WII factor and American Hustle has the afterglow effect. Finally, I don't think "Foxcatcher" will make it in BP and BD, but it could be an actors' film. After reading the script, I think Carrell will be nominated and while Ruffalo has the physical transformation, I could see a Channing Tatum nom -Yes, I said it-. His role is powerful and Miller made Catherine Keener and Jonah Hill noms. While a young male star have difficulties for the win, the AMPAS usually makes the nominations at the right role -Think about Tom Cruise-. But I think we could wait until the final word from Sony Pictures Classic. In the last years, they make excellent results. Right now, they have "Blue Jasmine" and "Before Sunset"...
-Right now, I think August: Osage County is Harvey's biggest pony -At least at this moment-. The reviews were fine and he's the producer alongside Clooney. Grace of Monaco doesn't sound an strong film beside Kidman and Costumes, But I think we can make consideration of "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom". The test screeners responses were excellent and has the lucky week for "Harvey" -The same date as "The King's Speech", "The Artist" and "Silver Linings Playbook".
-The Wolf of Wall Street and Nebraska are from Paramount. Usually Paramount has lukewarn campaign results.
-On the other hand, Warner bros. is excellent. If "The Great Gatsby" failed by critics, it means free way for Gravity and in minor way Prisoners.
-And last but not least - Asghar Farhadi's "The Past". If Farhadi didn't fail to expectations, I make this statement - the film didn't leave Cannes empty -Especially with that Jury - Spielberg, Kidman, Waltz-. It could be Farhadi's Talk to Her, which make bigger by the Oscars after winning foreign language film. The biggest question - Which studio could buy it? If Fox Searchlight, SPC or Weinstein will buy it, be aware.
*American Hustle - Sony
*August: Osage County - The Weinstein Company
*The Counselor - 20th. Century Fox
*Gravity - Warner Bros.
*Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom - The Weinstein Company
*Monuments Men - Sony
*Nebraska - Paramount
*The Past - ?
And director:
*George Clooney - Monuments Men
*Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
*Asghar Farhadi - The Past
*Alexander Payne - Nebraska
*John Wells - August: Osage County
Guesses and preferences at this stage:
1. Before Midnight
2. The Immigrant
3. Gravity
4. Monuments Men
5. Serena
6. Twelve Years a Slave
7. Dallas Buyer's Club
8. The Counselor
9. The Great Gatsby
Wild cards: Frances Ha, Can A Song Save Your Life
And I love the idea of The World's End
Off-oscar
Doesn't Bradley Cooper look like Milhouse in that Simpsons episode with him and Bart in drag? Actually, they both look like they took their parents clothes.
If Amy Adams gets nominated again, that's going to be bananas. They might just have to give it to her.
The best part is it appears Amy has a lead role. What poetic justice if she gave a dynamite leading performance and finally got an Oscar after years as the bridesmaid in supporting. But I have a sinking feeling they'll give it to Streep again.
And I know we're all bullish on Farhadi and The Past but given the competition for French movies in the Foreign Language category, it will have to win all of the major festival prizes to be the clear-cut French submission. Farhadi got a lot of love with A Separation but look how long it took international masters like Haneke and Almodovar to get Best Director nods. Unless Sony Pictures Classic gets The Past for distribution, I think the best we can hope for is a submission for Best Foreign Language Film from France.
look how long it took international masters like Haneke and Almodovar to get Best Director nods. Unless Sony Pictures Classic gets The Past for distribution
CMG; If you considerate Almodovar Oscar by 1999, it was a consecutive nomination. All About my Mother and next Talk to Her.
Also, Ang Lee has consecutive nominations in Best Foreign Language Film 1993-1994 and the next year, Sense and Sensibility.
Again, Haneke is different than Almodovar or Farhadi in that concept. Haneke makes dry and difficult films by AMPAS tastes, while Farhadi and Almodovar are more accesible. Think about people like Spielberg are fans of Farhadi.
Finally, I don't think the French will choose Farhadi unless it was a clear-cut decision. Simple, the french people choose french people and they forget foreign directors.
I think nomination for Saving mr Banks: picture, actress Emma Thompson, actor in a supporting role (Hanks, Farrel or Giamatti), screenplay, art direction, costume design and original score.