Best Actor. April Foolish Predictions
Tuesday, April 7, 2015 at 3:00PM It's that time of year. But judging on your semi-quiet response maybe you weren't quite ready for it yet? Anyway. Light a fire. Whoohoo. It's time to pull out the crystal balls and make stupidly early Oscar predictions.
There are so very many questions to ask about the forthcoming Best Actor race. These are just 8 of them:
• Can Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) be the first back-to-back acting winner in 21 years?
• Will Tom Hiddleston (I Saw the Light) & Don Cheadle (Miles Ahead) do their musician legend biopics proud?
• Will Michael Fassbender prove Michael Fassbender's undoing (5 leading roles this year)?
• Same question for Jake Gyllenhaal (3 leading roles this year)?
• Perennial Write-In Question from Leo "when will it finally be my turn?"
• Can money-grubbers Will Smith (Concussion) & Johnny Depp (Black Mass) find artistic redemption and thus Oscar favor?
• Can Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) triple-crown by February next year? He's already got the Tony & the Emmy
• Will any of the old guard (Warren Beatty, Tom Courtenay, Sir Ian McKellen) rise up?
• Will Beasts of No Nation sort out its theater vs online situation so that Idris Elba has a shot?
SEE THE NEW CHART. Discuss.
Reader Comments (35)
Solid picks. I do think that Oscar is going to try and be more inclusive this year after some of the backlash last so I could def see that helping out Elba or Smith
I can't argue with the reasoning behind these picks, and I too am currently thinking an all-bio lineup -- but unless I'm wrong, that's never happened before. Wonder what piece of fiction will come out of Toronto?
Can Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) be the first back-to-back acting winner in 21 years? No :) I love Eddie but he is no Tom Hanks!
"It's that time of year. But judging on your semi-quiet response maybe you weren't quite ready for it yet? Anyway. Light a fire. Whoohoo. It's time to pull out the crystal balls and make stupidly early Oscar predictions."
You know everyone is waiting for Best Actress anyways pssh.
I think that Jake has a good chance of getting in, probably more for Demolition than Southpaw, and definitely think they'll want to give Ian McKellen another nomination.
I'm starting to feel very uncomfortable about Eddie Redmayne. Able-bodied actors playing people with disabilities (as in Theory of Everything), and straight actors playing trans (as in The Danish Girl) are becoming sort of a pet peeve of mine. Shouldn't we fight for diversity in Hollywood in all fronts, and not only as far as race and binary gender norms are concerned?
Everyone (including unfortunately Leo) knows he's going to win one eventually so they wait...
Well, I wouldn't want to compare DiCaprio to O'Toole or Burton, but Beatty fits. If Warren wins this year (I doubt it), Leo's chances of being a future Best Actor winner improve.
That's Johnny Depp in that photo?!?
It would be quite lovely if Michael Keaton is so good in Spotlight that he wins Best Actor over Eddie. Ah, what a wonderful dream that is.
It's already another overwhelmingly crowded year of leading actors. It's already an overwhelmingly white crop of likely contenders. Already a zillion biopics. Already the same names in the mix as always.
Maybe instead of expanding the Best Picture field to 5-10 nominees, the AMPAS should've done it to Best Actor.
"Maybe instead of expanding the Best Picture field to 5-10 nominees, the AMPAS should've done it to Best Actor."
Hayden--That, OR they could just nominate the ones who really deserve it. This past year was sorta embarrassing. I thought the only truly deserving nominees were Keaton and Cooper.
A) I would have sworn that that pic of Bryan Cranston was Gary Oldman. Weird.
B) I like your picks. I think I'd personally say Hiddleston, Redmayne, Fassbender (MacBeth), Cranston, and Hanks. Gyllenhaal (Demolition) would be my alternate.
"Hayden--That, OR they could just nominate the ones who really deserve it. This past year was sorta embarrassing. I thought the only truly deserving nominees were Keaton and Cooper."
@Brookesboy: Everyone always agrees that there are two or three duds among the nominees. The problem, of course, is that nobody agrees on who are the duds. I personally would put Cooper in the "dud" category. But consensus is the name of the game.
Ideally I want 5 actors who've never won before. But Redmayne's guaranteed a nomination.
Your top 5 are tough to disagree with and I think Hiddleston & Cranston have a really good shot at being both nominees and strong contenders. "Loki" is as much a fan favourite as "Sherlock" and Cranston is HUGE. If "Trumbo" is a critical success & Cranston is as good as he's been in everything else he could win it.
I think I am suffering from Redmayne fatigue and I don't think I'm the only one. I'm no hater - I just think "The Danish Girl" will have to be amazing. No one can rule him out, but I do think that they will be looking to share the wealth.
I have more faith in a nomination for Gyllenhaal (Demolition) than you do. I think "Everest" is going to be a hit, and that will help him with a "Demolition"
Hanks & DiCaprio will be likely nominees to round out the field.
Cranston, Hiddleston, Gyllenhaal, Hanks, DiCaprio as top 5.
Fassbinder doesn't campaign, so that will affect his chances but I would put him down as an alternate in case one of the top 5 films doesn't work.
My logic is impeccable but Oscar will probably make me look foolish, but that's all part of the game.
I have read The Light Between Oceans and it's really a two person (possibly three) book. It's a big role for Michael Fassbender, so if it hits, I can see him get nominated for it.
Coco: Yes-ish. Are we talking about representation or opportunity? If it's the former, we're in tricky terrain. If it's the latter, then hell yes.
re: DiCaprio - I dunno - I can see him waiting forever and then it just not happening.
re: Fassbender - if he doesn't campaign, I don't see it happening.
What Ryan said. .....
Both the musician biopics seem so perfectly cast. Hiddleston has such exuberant energy and obvious joy in performance, and Cheadle seems smart, intense, passionate, while still portraying how an artist can contemplate his work from an intellectual distance.
I wonder about Warren Beatty's Hughes project, whether so much time spent thinking about it will make it like over- kneaded bread dough. Or will it make it dreamy and odd, and will it look like it came from another era? I think I'll want to see this one more than once, especially since I'm fascinated by Alden Ehrenreich.
Fassbender and Gyllenhaal present too much of a threat to the older hetero-male type voter. They have incredible sex appeal and that is usually something that prevents similarly handsome men in the Best Actor category from winning. Let them wait until they are Alan Arkin's age. (Arkin was incredibly sexy when he lost the Oscar to the bewigged Cliff Robertson playing a by-the-books handicapped lead). Arkin's touching perf in "The Heart is a Lonely Hunter," remains beautiful today for not only the virility he possessed, but for the gravitas he brought to the role. "Charly," remains a huge embarrassment. Jake and Fassy have already been robbed more than once. Hope their beauty doesn't prejudice the voters...again. Think Marvin over Werner, Scofield over Burton, Steiger over Newman, Robertson over Arkin, Wayne over Voight, Scott over Nicholson, Hoffman over Ledger...
I will never - NEVER - get over the Miles Davis biopic being called MILES AHEAD. I immediately lose respect for the movie and giggle at it.
Lol. That's an interesting theory Patryc. I also agree with those that can see Leo never winning. If you are consistently strong, it's hard to surprise. Even when he was against type and better than ever (Wolf of Wall Street) he didn't really get much traction. If he wins I don't think it will be till he's aged quite a bit
Hiddleston, Redmayne, & DiCaprio all feel right. And I'm starting to be extremely curious about the awards potential of 45 Years. It seems unlikely it'll click at the level it needs to, but if it does and brings major awards attention to its leads - what a story.
I came here to console you with the exact some sentiment that Ryan already pointed out.
I'm surprised nobody is saying Joseph Gordon Levitt needs to be in a higher tier. Two big biopics for a young actor who has been building a solid resume and is surely more well-liked than James Franco was when he got that "first nom" that is beginning to feel like an "only nom"
I also agree with NGB. They won't allow #oscarswhysowhite to happen again. I hope Sam Jackson in supporting can benefit from this. How many times has Elba been a contender now, only to have a campaign never materialize in any serious way?
shawshank, being honest, one of those biopic is directed by Oliver Stone, who can't make a remarkable or groundbreaking film in 20 years, the project looks really cheap from the stills and we have the story of the recent Oscar winning documental.
The Walk, on the other hand, can be his Oscar ticket. Zemeckis is more consistent as a filmmaker, the people behind the project has better credentials and the story is more open to narrate different aspects.
Arkaan, if DiCaprio was British, yeah, but DiCaprio is American, which bring him more advantage for the veteran status card. Respected/Acclaimed big American stars (Key word: star) have the edge winning due Oscars - Don Ameche, Al Pacino, John Wayne, Christopher Plummer (Well Canadian, but a full career in American industry), Paul Newman, Henry Fonda, Robert Duvall, Martin Balsam... DiCaprio will definitely win the Oscar, no doubt about that, the real question is when.
Oh, I forgot. There's a kind of urban legend related to JGL. He's some like a "bad totem" for Oscar chances...
2009 - (500) Days of Summer snubbed of Original Screenplay
2010 - Inception snubbed of Best Director and Editing and losing Original Screenplay
2011 - 50/50 snubbed of Original Screenplay
2012 - Lincoln losing Adapted Screenplay
2013 - Looper snubbed of Original Screenplay
When he's the lead, the film is snubbed, when he's supporting, somehow the film lost key Oscars. Let's see if "The Walk" can change that XD.
It will be interesting to see how they campaign Elba. I think he has a great chance of winning if they go supporting, considering the story revolves around the child soldier character. Fassbender looks like the best bet on paper, even if he isn't engaged in the campaign.
My top 10:
1. Fassbender, Steve Jobs
2. DiCaprio, The Revenant
3. McConaughey, The Sea of Trees
4. Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. JGL, The Walk
6. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
7. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
8. Gyllenhaal, Demolition or Southpaw
9. Fassbender, The Light Between Oceans or MacBeth
10. Michael Shannon, Midnight Special
Re: Leo. This role doesn't look like one that's gonna come out on top compared to some of the other physical and biopic contenders. I think he's gonna win an honorary Oscar and then a competitive supporting one when he's 71.
Re: Leo. This role doesn't look like one that's gonna come out on top compared to some of the other physical and biopic contenders. I think he's gonna win an honorary Oscar and then a competitive supporting one when he's 71.
Joseph W. I don't deny that. But that was the point.
My bias: I enjoy DiCaprio's performances. I thought he was the best nominee in 2004 (though AMPAS fucked up that category royally) and the best of the year period in 2013 for The Wolf of Wall Street.
leon said: "Respected/Acclaimed big American stars (Key word: star) have the edge winning due Oscars - Don Ameche, Al Pacino, John Wayne, Christopher Plummer (Well Canadian, but a full career in American industry), Paul Newman, Henry Fonda, Robert Duvall, Martin Balsam... DiCaprio will definitely win the Oscar, no doubt about that, the real question is when."
Hmmm...
If you said: "Presuming they live long and full, active lives, who would you say definitely gets an oscar before they're done," DiCaprio wouldn't be at the top of that list. That list doesn't really convince me at all, actually.
well Leo is definitely in the Amerian matinee idol movie star LEADING MAN category and those men tend to win when they're older or seen as challenging themselves or in a best pic nominee (Peck, Lancaster) . Sometimes they make them wait a REALLY long time (see paul newman/henry fonda and some win their oscar for other categories (see brad pitt/ warren beatty) but they usually do win at some point. unless they totally self-immolate (see Tom Cruise who as recently as 15 years ago seemed headed towards Paul Newman territory)
you can't really compare Leo to the men that weren't silver screen idols. it's different rules for different "types"
shawshank #oscarssowhite can definitely happen again. the academy can only choose with what's set in front of them. if, say, MILES AHEAD turns out to be a teensy indie without good distribution, if BEASTS OF NO NATION can't work out a convincing distribution model that doesn't piss people off (you do have to play theaters and first to be Oscar eligible) and if CONCUSSION isn't an actors film (very possible) -- or if any of them are perceived as being not very good -- we could easily have an all white lineup again.
i sometimes feel bad for the academy. I wish we had more diversity in Hollywood but the fact that we don't is not the Academy's fault. You have to get the plum roles in the high profile pictures to be in the Oscar conversation. Usually, when black actors get those parts they are definitely in the conversation -- in the last couple of decades we've seen great strides in the number of actors of color nominated and winning (especially in supporting actress and best actor) and the Academy have been very kind to the prestige black stars (Denzel, Morgan) who have careers similar in size and stature to their white counterparts -- the Oyelowo thing this year was simply that the campaign was troubled and his category was stacked. Gyllenhaal and Fiennes have just as much reason to be pissed.
If Michael Keaton is even average in Spotlight - he will definitely get a nom and probably win.
And there will be at least ONE African-American actor nominated to make up for this years all white line up. David Oyelowo was superior to the abysmal Bradley Cooper in the overrated and rotten American Sniper.
Very very very interesting picks ! Great to see Fassbender & Gyllenhaal with some heavy weight plum roles - but where the hell is Gosling (just saw "Drive", "Blue Valentine" & "Notebook" again this year and can not understand why on earth this exceptional talented actor hasn't get nominated for any of these ??!) and where is J. Phoenix ?
Also hoping for B. Murray & M. Keaton to pick up on there amazing 'come backs' !
And .. no pressure of course N.... ... but we April fools are all desperate for the leading ladies pic ... u know ... ;o)