7 Bullet Points: Fall Festival Fallout & Oscar Chart Updates
Sunday, September 27, 2015 at 7:20PM 
Before we begin, please to note: the four Oscar category acting charts are not yet updated. Everything else is for the purposes of this discussion.
• That was exciting. Now... breathe!
With the fall film festival trifecta (Telluride, Venice, TIFF) behind us, the fourth and noisiest early rung in the climb to Oscar (the first being Sundance, the second being Cannes, the third being anything else that happened from January through August (i.e. summer box office, media & audience response to early offerings), we are well on the way towards Oscar nominations. It's important to note that while many over-eager pundits begin to declare winners in all sorts of categories at this stage, that's silliness. We should be focusing on the battle for nominations (still days away) until they're announced. Many things can still happen and do regularly happen in October through January which alter that who might win landscape each year. And, a crucial reminder: you can't win if you aren't nominated!
six more topics to discuss after the jump
• Many Mysteries Remain
The biggest question mark remains the handful of potentially big titles that haven't yet widely screened in their finished form or at all including The Revenant, Joy, The Big Short, and In the Heart of the Sea. For instance at this time last year no one had seen American Sniper, A Most Violent Year or Selma which between them gobbled up quite a lot of the late year conversation about what would be nominated and what should win Oscars and predicting their fates was a fool's errand. American Sniper became a phenomenon that shocked everyone at the box office, Selma had more campaign / precursor trouble than expected but corralled plenty of praise, and A Most Violent Year quickly receded into that vastly over populated purgatory of interesting pictures that just come out at the wrong time of the year (too late in this case but late December is not the only wrong time to open - it depends on the picture) and proved an ill-fit, personality wise, for the boisterous Oscar party that was already raging. Some films never leave that purgatory (I'm still waiting for late December 2006's The Painted Veil to escape) and others become classics that people years from now will be pissed about and scream "Why wasn't this nominated for This and This and That?!?"
• Spotlight is a Strong Contender
It's absolutely true. Not here to argue. But is it the only contender that could hope to win Best Picture? Hell, no. While it's a very likeable and accessible journalism drama, it has weak spots that competitors could well exploit (like a lack of conflict in the narrative). It even has pure strengths, like it's low key resolve (it's far closer in temperament to Michael Keaton's stoic boss than Mark Ruffalo's exciteable investigative reporter) which its competitors could nevertheless frame as weaknesses given the nature of Oscar races. This race is not over. But you can safely expect the movie, its screenplay, and Thomas McCarthy in Best Director to be nominated.
• Is Sicario?
I've been arguing for months with my predictions that it is. When the public embraces a drama to the tune of big box office (which could very well happen with this one when it goes wide) a reward they generally reserve only for animated features / visual effects extravaganzas and sequels in the past several years, Oscar will not be able to not notice it.
• Either/Ors are Upsetting
We'll get to this in the acting categories soon enough but there are very aggravating Either/Or situations on the horizons. People love to pit similar-genre'd movies against each other whether they're easy to compare (Truth vs. Spotlight) or whether they're in fact very different (Mad Max vs. The Martian). We'd like to declare that is a very silly impulse and Oscar can like multiple things of the same ilk (take the infamous Farm Wives of 1984 Best Actress Year or the War Dramas versus English Royals Best Picture Wars of 1998) but when the good stuff is in genres the Academy is resistant to by their nature (say, sci-fi/adventure) it's a different story. In a perfect world The Martian's surprisingly effortless high entertainment factor (it's going to be a huge hit) would not distract people from Mad Max Fury Road's heavy-breathing brilliance but in this world...
And as for "Women's Pictures"... despite AMPAS's attempts to diversify their voting body when it comes to race and age, they haven't solved their anti-woman problem. That's undoubtedly because sexism runs so deep in the movie industry which produces many more stories about men and often reduces women to "supportive other on phone/at home. And probably because sexism runs so deep in general culture that even a lot of women think stories about men are more important than their own. So, getting to the point: do Brooklyn, Carol, Joy, Suffragette, Mad Max Fury Road, Inside Out, and Room -- all female-centric narratives that might very reasonably hope for Best Picture traction given their topic/team/success/reviews -- cause each other problems this year? I weep to confirm but... probably. See, that's seven pictures right there in a contest that only has room for five to ten. Despite women making up 50% of the population, you have to go all the way back to 1977 to find a year that was inarguably female-dominated when it came to the Best Picture Shortlist. The nominees that year were Annie Hall, The Goodbye Girl, Julia, The Turning Point, and (the only "boy" movie) Star Wars. Stories about men never have to worry about "are there too many stories about men this year?"
• Eye Candy
We've already talked about Best Original Song which is sounding strong but there's lots of eye candy this yearm too. 2015 already looks and sounds spectacular. The choices in score and sound and costumes, cinematography, and production design already have more than enough worthy candidates to fill every nomination slot (between The Martian, Sicario, Mad Max, Ex Machina, Room, Cinderella, Inside Out, Diary of a Teenage Girl, Victoria, Far From The Madding Crowd, and a dozen more this is not even close to an exaggeration) and yet we're not done watching the movies. May the various Oscar branches take their ballots seriously this year!
• The Danish Girl is still a strong contender... for nominations.
People make this mistake every year but festival fervor is not a direct correlation to real world fervor. Clint Eastwood's Mystic River is always a good throwback example. It was well liked at Cannes 2003 but nothing about that bow indicated that it would become the #2 Oscar film of that year. The real world is different than festival world. Repeat on loop. At TIFF this year Anomalisa and Beasts of No Nation were among the titles winning "total masterpiece" critical jerkoff competitions. The Danish Girl however, which will be a much bigger deal both with the public and at the Oscars than either of those, was dismissed in many quarters as "oh, it's desperate for Oscars." Wanting to win Oscars is no deterrent to winning Oscars. It's a very handsome production, starring actors everyone* likes, with an Oscar winning team behind the scenes, and a "right now" topic even though it's a period piece. Anomalisa, on the other hand -- and I realize this is not even an apples and oranges comparison but uh apples and rhinoceros -- if you translated the fervor to awards play it would have Titanic like possibilities. But it does not. It's too small, too weird, and too Charlie Kaufman's navel without the expansive outside-the-navel transcendence of something like Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. It should be very ecstatic if it even wins 2 nominations (Animated Feature + Screenplay). The Danish Girl will surely be considered a disappointment if it receives less than 6 (though it has a great shot at the craft categories). But The Danish Girl might have trouble actually winning any Oscars. But that's a topic for January post-nominations, no?
Updated Charts
Prediction Index | Picture | Director | Screenplay | Foreign | Animated Film | Cinematograpy, Costumes, etc... | Original Song, Sound, etc...
*yes yes, YOU don't like Eddie Redmayne at the moment because he stole Michael Keaton's Oscar. But we're speaking in broad generalizations and he's very popular right now.
Reader Comments (31)
very interesting read, nat.
And I am so psyched to watch Joy.
Nath, this is an important not for your chart updates: according to the HR, all the cast of Spotlight will be campaingned supporting.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/spotlight-oscar-strategy-focus-supporting-826238
In your opinion, is this a sure bet for a Michael Keaton win, considering many people think he should have won this year?
Has anyone even seen Joy? That film seems really iffy with no festival screenings planned, but maybe it's on a festival circuit that I don't know about. I would love to see the Academy go for films lead by women this year, but aren't Out of Africa and Chicago the only films centered around a woman that that have won best picture in the last 50 or so years? (1965-2015). Even film critics instinctively go for films directed and starring men as their best pictures (leaving actresses often out of the equation).
a) Depends on what you mean by centered. The Sound of Music, Annie Hall, Terms of Endearment, The Silence of the Lambs and Driving Miss Daisy could conceivably qualify. So sexism is over in Hollywood (don't fact check).
b) More seriously, the list Nathaniel posts interests me because I think we can flashback to a year like 2002 - The Hours and Chicago in the main, Frida and Far From Heaven with significant nomination hauls. They weren't outdone by the male dominated movies (Gangs of New York, The Pianist, The Two Towers, Road to Perdition) but it made for an interesting slate.
The Hollywood Reporter article also mentions that Focus Features has not yet decided which category will compete Alicia Vikander (leading or supporting)
I hope she competes in Leading.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/spotlight-oscar-strategy-focus-supporting-826238
7 out of 50. Rejoice. Are men really so afraid of the mind of a woman?
Tom Ford, what makes it worse is that you can argue that early Hollywood was FAR more interested in women than they are now.
Re SPOTLIGHT - I'm wary of critics/journalists over-hyping films about their own profession. Remember when Peter Sarsgaard was a 'lock' to win Supporting Actor for SHATTERED GLASS?
Not to say SPOTLIGHT won't get multiple nods but I think the box office will be a better predictor of Oscar voters' tastes in this case than journalists' raves.
The constant "Eddie Redmayne stole Michael Keaton's Oscar" thing is very tiresome. Last year's best actor race was incredibly strong beyond even the nominees. Not sure why "snub" is a dirty term, but that sorta thing isn't. And, yes, I don't like Michael Keaton's performance in that movie so that's most of the reason why, but would we be complaining if someone else had surprised and won or is it just because Redmayne was in a biopic? A biopic that's "oscar bait" (like Danish Girl) that ultimately won far fewer awards than Birdman. Considering Birdman won best picture, Keaton's loss is all the more evidence that maybe they just preferred Redmayne. AND I'M DONE.
(I'm so excited for this year's race... until all the films I'm in love with become casualties and critics prizes and early award bodies going for the same five/six movies)
STANDS UP AND APPLAUDS GLENN DUNKS. Thank you. And I frankly hooted and hollered when Redmayne won over Keaton.
Biopic + disease/disability + mimicry + living legend + UK = Oscar ka-ching.
Still, Keaton really deserved that Oscar. ;-)
thanks, Glenn, for calling out the annoying "someone stole somenon's Oscar".
Pixar movies that they like (i.e. everything up to Toy Story 3) tends to pick up a sound editing nomination as well.
Am I only person who wanted a Fiennes or Gyllenhaal nom and then win,not Keaton or Redmayne.
Great post! And a resounding oye! To the point about women on the phone/at home. The last two movies I saw did this pretty egregiously. Black Mass didn't put a woman outside of the KITCHEN until the 2nd half of the movie (and wouldn't you know it, women who hang out in kitchens all day are impeccably dressed and coifed). Then, poor Keira Knightly in Everest was "sad pregnant wife on the phone" even though the movie mentions in passing that she's a climber!!! Poor Yasuko Namba (the female climber) was reduced to a handful of lines, at once even being dismissively told that what she was saying wasn't even important! Sadly, I wanted to see Sicario both weekends but it hasn't widened to a theater near me....
Mark-Nope, you're not alone. Of the actual nominees, Keaton was my pick, but Fiennes gave my favorite performance of the year.
MARK: I'm with you. The actual lineup shrank in comparison to Gyllenhaal, Fiennes and Oyelowo. But of the nominated 5, I preferred Redmayne.
I'm excited for McCarthy to have a big season... But Spotlight doesn't seem like a McCarthy joint. Station Agent, Visitor and Win Win felt really of one voice; does Spotlight share that voice?
catbaskests, the character Knightley was playing is a real person who did not participate since she was pregnant so there is nothing that could really be changes about that?
And above did people forget about Titanic as a female led Oscar winner?
I'm waiting for a post about how Inarritu stole both Richard Linklater's and Wes Anderson's Oscars!
I still think this is another year where we will be underestimating David O Russell. I have a feeling Joy will be good. But gut feelings aren't always correct. I'm also interested to see how The Revenant will do. I don't know if I believe DiCaprio will win, but I'm kind of sick of fans calling him the most overdue actor. He's great, but he actually hasn't deserved the Oscar yet. Every year there is a performance better than his. Also he is not the most overdue actor in competition this year. Thats Harvey Keitel by kilometers.
My big wild card pick all year is Stallone for Creed. And Im not new to this prediction, I've actually believed it since the film was announced, but the movie would have to be great to get it.
I saw The Walk this weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if Academy Members fall for it. I actually really liked it, but more for personal reasons.
I am obsessed with the eye candy this year. Usually I have one clear favourite but Danish Girl, Carol, Cinderella and Brooklyn thus far are all BEAUTIFUL. And we still have many more.
Unless the Academy decides on a different ruling, Anomalisa is based on a play by Kaufman.
FYI the Painted Veil is just wonderful. A hugely deserving somewhat old fashioned film. Unfortunately, I think Brooklyn will follow its trajectory in the awards race.
chinoiserie--being a real still-living person should mean that there's more to pull from than the "don't do the brave thing"/crying/worried tropes. I actually think a seasoned mountain climber would have a VERY unique perspective on what her husband was doing which would be much more worth exploring than pregnantwifesadcrying.
There was a tweet about a Joy screening at the weekend:
"JOY screened. Sounds like DOR hit another home run. The shake-up: Edgar Ramirez is co-lead, a big breakout, & will likely land an Oscar nom"
https://twitter.com/MichaelNotCera/status/648205483996745728
Obviously take with a pinch of salt, but interesting nonetheless.
I agree with Josh that Harvey Keitel is the most overdue actor in the conversation. His acting has been alive and fresh for decades. He's worked with so many first time directors and provided a clear narrative through line for their movie. He's a treasure.
Two films I look forward to seeing that haven't been talked about much are Miles Ahead with Don Cheadle, and Courtney Hunt's new film, The Whole Truth, with Gugu Mbatha Raw. Two actors with lots of skill and fire, who always make the most of their lead roles.
Josh - my wildcard pick is Stallone too. He hasn't been nominated for any of his acting since Rocky I believe (unless you count the Razzies), but the Rocky character in this one is baitier than ever.
adri- Thanks!!!, He is so overdue. His performance in Bad Lieutenant is incredible and I feel like they owe it to him for that alone.
Josh- The thing is Stallone every once in a while can surprise if he is well cast. He stole Cop Land, but he really is a natural when he plays Balboa. If an actor was ever there character, I would say he is. And yeah the sick thing can really help. It does depend if the Academy is nostalgic though and if they can forgive him. But its possible and shouldn't be laughed off. Glad I'm not alone.
Pleaaaase stop saying that "everyone" hates Eddie Redmayne for stealing Keaton's Oscar ! The only people we can blame for stealing anything to anyone in 2015 lead actor race is the academy voters who gave the fifth place to Bradley Cooper instead of Gyllenhaal, who should have won in my opinion...
Anyway, as usual i'm pretty sure that every "women" pictures will score in acting categories, leaving Best Picture and Best Director to men, because voters wait 'til the last minute for any excuse to nominate a man movie (last year's American Sniper's nominations were soooo frustrating).
Living in France, i'll have to wait 'til December through April to see all the movies in Oscar race so i'll wait 'til then to give any opinion about any film...
"I'm still waiting for late December 2006's The Painted Veil to escape"
I bought that movie years ago, and I have yet to pop it into my player...
On the subject of the most overdue actors in this year's Oscar conversation, I agree that Harvey Keitel is well overdue his second nomination by now. But I think the single most overdue actor this year is Jennifer Jason Leigh, who has shockingly never been nominated despite several great performances over the past few decades. Test screening buzz on The Hateful Eight was strong on her performance, so I really hope she gets her first nomination if not the Oscar itself.
Great predictions and analysis as usual, but I have to wonder- you have Blanchett in 6th place for Carol. Do you think she's going to get snubbed? It's a crowded race, but I still can't see her missing with the strong reviews and huge buzz the movie has going for it. I doubt she will split votes with Truth, because the latter is not getting the hype it first did and I hear she's not as good.