Who will be nominated for Best Picture? Our Final Predictions.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 11:57AM The wisest thing to do in Oscar prediction in most years is a holistic approach. Start with Best Picture and let everything flow outward from that. Many technical or acting nominations throughout Oscar history are headscratchers unless you notice that their housing film was up for the big prize. People love what they love and they love blindly. Or, well, that's not right. That's... ungenerous. I don't think anyone is willfully myopic -- which is why diversity in Academy membership is so important -- it's just that we all have our limitations and our fields of vision can be narrowed by any number of things including time spent looking at options.
If there were still only five. Oscar.... so manly!
For my own awards -- which statistically always include more movies than Oscars field each year -- this is probably because I see more movies and I probably fuss over my ballot more than 90% of Academy voters. They're inside the raging storm (and as some of them have told me over the years they either see movies very early before they're out in the world or well after the fact depending on their connection to the filmmakers studios and demands of current projects) while we're outside the storm looking at it and able to consider it from more vantage points. Of course that always brings the danger of overthinking it, the #1 easiest trap for pundits. "Guilty!" I shout, knowing myself
How many of these pictures will also be nominated? Last year we had 8 nominees in total.
Best Picture is unusually competitive this year and it's been a clogged up mess. The sudden lurching away from critical darlings Carol & Mad Mad Fury Road -- no secret at all that they're my two favorite films of the year -- that some pundits were predicting to lead the nomination tallies as recently as a week or two ago, toward more traditional Oscar Bait like The Revenant and The Big Short (read: heavily masculine, more traditional in form and message) has been a bit disheartening. I go on about this and the gender bias of Best Picture in my intermittent column at Towleroad. I am hopeful that Carol will be nominated still but it's no sure thing. I expect Carol and Room and Brooklyn are in the same 'could go either way' boat .. and together with longer shots Sicario and Inside Out -- well it's hard to miss that these are all extremely well reviewed films with female leads. So why are none of them sure things? Oscar might me walking into an #OscarsSoMale situation tomorrow morning. But we'll cross our fingers and hope voters realized during balloting that women are 50% of the human race and their stories aren't any less important and when they're told so gorgeously it'd be a real shame to pass them over.
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Reader Comments (36)
Hmm. I don't see the reasoning behind Room getting in when it missed key guild nods, while Brooklyn was able to get a PGA nom and seems like a much safer bet for getting those top-tier votes given it's a movie everyone loves.
You left Brooklyn completely off. Oversight?
Don't see Straight Outta Compton making it in at all but that might just be wishful thinking since I hated it.
I believe you mean their housing film.
Despite all the signs pointing the other way and in the face of common sense I'm still hoping Todd Haynes slips in. I don't care which of the DGA's five he replaces
I would love nothing more than for the Oscar nominations to be completely surprising, but even in a year as "up in the air" as this, they tend to play it disappointingly safe (last genuine surprise being the 2012 Director lineup with Zeitlin AND Haneke?).
Brooklyn missing would break my heart.
My "No Guts No Glory" prediction would be that Carol gets the same number of nominations as Far From Heaven, and probably in the same categories. Which would also break my heart.
i think Idris is in. His face has been ALL OVER LA since late November. Seriously Netflix took out billboards, building wraps and even an entire bus (!) with FYC ads prominently featuring his name and face. I think the pressure for diversity and last year's White Out will help. most people seem to know he's the only african american nominee with a really good shot. That said I also think Jacob is in so who gets left out?
Inside Out IS getting nominated. The Animators branch all but guarantees it what with the preferential ballot placement. Even if they vote something else Best Picture on the final ballot they want an animated film in the mix (and surely they know Anomalisa would be wasting a vote).
Ken -- i have Brooklyn at #12 (it's there on the page)
Hmm, I'm actually not so confident about Mad Mad making it in. I know it's made it into pretty much every guild and it's a critics darling, but it just feels so much like a Dark Knight situation. You might remember The Dark Knight showed up in nearly every key guild and by nomination morning, it only got a bunch of tech nominations and Heath Ledger's sure-thing eulogy nomination (very deserving, but I'm still convinced they wouldn't have nominated him if he hadn't died). Mad Max seems to be more of a critics darling, but it's also not the box office success that Dark Knight was (it made 153,636,354 on a 150 million budget, and it's overseas cume was under 400 million, it was barely a hit if you think about it) and I think the shutout from Picture and Director at BAFTA might be telling. I'm hoping it is nominated though, because if it isn't, next year's Best Picture lineup could be anywhere from 15 to 20 nominees (and that would truly be the end of any respect one could have for AMPAS). If it happened with The Dark Knight...
I disagree with your inclusion of "Inside Out", they will nominate this as best animated feature, not best picture, especially in such a crowded year.
I believe " Brooklyn " has a better chance of making it in than "Room" -that's a prediction based on the numbers.
Since 2009, 78% of #PGA nominees have received an #Oscar Best Picture nomination. which means "Ex Machina", "Brooklyn", and "Sicario" have the best chances of joining your top 5.
Put into context, since the academy has expanded the Best Picture category, between 7 and 9 PGA nominees have earned an Oscar nomination every year.
Maybe you have inside knowledge I don't but I don't see why you're rating Room above Brooklyn or Sicario.
Sadly the lack of a PGA nomination is a big hill for "Carol" to climb, I am keeping my fingers crossed. The best thing about Carol's chances is that it has a very passionate fan base that will make it their number 1 choice. (As does "Mad Max")
JESSICA - thanks. ugh. typing too fast again.
AR -- STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTONs perpetual strength in precursors is super shocking to me too since I just don't think it's a special film at all. But i keep hearing that Hollywood likes it.
RICHTER - you're probably right but i'm choosing to ignore BAFTA (the only fumble with Mad Max) especially since they went so full hearted toward Carol which seems to be in danger.
TIM -- it wouldn't surprise me. animated films are so hard to read with Bets Picture anymore since virtually every guild changed their rules to deny them access to the main categories. you know longer have any precursors to go on so you just think "do people love Inside out" enough or will they forget about it since precursors are actually NOT ALLOWED to remind them in a way.
agreed Richter. this is the old fashioned academy we're talking about. i think MAD MAX will make it (barely) but no way is it in a higher position than 7th or 8th place.
"Brooklyn" is probably my favorite film of the year, but I think you're right that it will be left off the picture list and may only earn a nomination for Saoirse Ronan. So disappointing. If "Carol" is left off too I would be very, very sad.
Nathaniel
Oops. My bad. Guess I'm just getting more and more depressed as the actual nominations approach and all my promising possibilities are falling by the wayside. At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see Charlotte Rampling booted for Jennifer Lawrence or somesuch, and for Carol to get even fewer nominations than Far from Heaven
Richter, The Dark Knight / MMFR situations aren't exactly the same, the preferential ballot system is in place now and Mad Max will have passion voters giving it #1 placements. I mean they nominated District 9 for Best Picture for heaven's sake, it's not a big leap to think they'll nominate Mad Max. I am hoping anyway :)
Nathaniel: I actually feel Carol has a better chance than Mad Max, since it often happens that a film that makes the Oscar list but missed the PGA list was embraced by BAFTA. The most recent example I can think of is Philomena, also backed by Harvey Weinstein. This also happened before the expansion with Atonement and The Reader, and all three of these films did well with the Golden Globes as well, so, I feel that Carol has all the ingredients of a none-Guild darling that will still pop up Oscar morning...
Anyway, we'll know tomorrow...
Steve Jobs has a better shot than several of the films you ranked ahead of it. We're talking about a potential Supporting Actress AND Adapted Screenplay winner. Best Pictures have gotten in on much less than that.
Just seen Brooklyn today & I was disappointed. Saoirse Ronan is the best thing in it by far but it's not a best picture standard for me. I'd put 45 Years ahead of it.
I am onboard with an #OscarsSoMale hashtag if Room, Carol, and Brooklyn all miss.
I still think Carol has a better chance at the Academy than Mad Max. I was puzzled all seaon that it got so much love and attention. I'm not against that (I haven't seen it), but it just feels so odd for an Oscar BP nominee.... While Carol can still get in the line with The Hours or The Kids are all right.
It all comes down to understanding what the Preferential ballot means.
1) A devoted fan base that votes that picture #1 is required, that base needs to be 5% of total 6000 voters, which is just 300 votes.
2) to get through the first round, a film needs to poll 3% (180 votes +1) to make it safely into the next round.
Mad Max and Carol have devoted and passionate fan bases so this makes their inclusion much more likely. I do think both of these films will be nominated tomorrow.
(those courses in comparative politics and statistics come in handy at this time of year.)
I do not recognize the expanded field, as that was the dumbest thing the Academy has ever pulled. So these are the five films I believe DESERVE to be nominated for Best Picture: Spotlight, Mad Max: Fury Road, Ex Machina, Brooklyn, and The Revenant. *
* 45 Years would be my alternate for any of the above besides Spotlight and Max.
I do not recognize the expanded field, as that was the dumbest thing the Academy has ever pulled. So these are the five films I believe DESERVE to be nominated for Best Picture: Spotlight, Mad Max: Fury Road, Ex Machina, Brooklyn, and The Revenant. *
* 45 Years would be my alternate for any of the above besides Spotlight and Max.
I think BAFTA gave us a clue as to how voters will handle VIkander and she'll show up tomorrow in LEAD
Comment on Sicario that contains SPOILERS: It has a female lead ... who's a stooge for the entire movie. She's out of her league and is being used. She's the lead but not the hero, certainly not in any kind of wish-fulfillment way.
I would love for Brooklyn to get nominated. That's such a lovely film.
Here's hoping for a Brooklyn BP nomination!
Also - Re: #OscarsSoMale .. hopefully it won't come to that. Remember at the beginning of the season when it was possible there would be a majority of the best picture nominations featuring women's stories? Sadly, now we're all worried about the possibility of Carol, Room, Brooklyn and Inside Out missing, and currently it seems like only Mad Max is a lock.
Carol is absolutely one of the best pictures of the year and should be nominated. Beyond the performances, the movie is a technical marvel and I believe it will show up in 2-4 craft categories, plus screenplay and 2 acting performances. Leaving it off the BP list does not make sense beyond female/LGBT bias.
I'm not as big on Room and Brooklyn as others here, and would not consider it a travesty if they didn't make it.
Remember: Inside Out was not nominated for the PGA or BFCA outside of the animation category. Our last two animated BP nominees - Up and Toy Story 3 - were. I will be shocked if Inside Out is nominated tomorrow.
I am not sure how I think these noms are going ...
For me, the pictures I were NOT looking forward to seeing were The Revenant and The Big Short.... loved them both
the pictures I were very looking forward to seeing .. Carol and Spotlight ... quite disappointed in both
It is a wacky year for movies, but rather fun!!!
i think Idris is in. His face has been ALL OVER LA since late November. Seriously Netflix took out billboards, building wraps and even an entire bus (!) with FYC ads prominently featuring his name and face. I think the pressure for diversity and last year's White Out will help. most people seem to know he's the only african american nominee with a really good shot.
He's not African-American. He's black British. Same as Steve McQueen.
Hey guys. Well, here are my predictions too. This has been a great year in film. Let's see how we do !
http://fenixpahedi.blogspot.com.es/2016/01/predictions-academy-awards.html
Ima call it right now: I think Jacob Tremblay gets in for Best Actor. If Quvenzhané can get in for Best Actress, I think it's likely that a similar voting group would feel it makes sense to put a young lead actor or actress where he or she belongs. They did the same with Keisha Castle Hughes in 2003. I get the sense that voters are beginning to think for themselves a bit re: category fraud. I'm also getting the sense that Hooper's charms are wearing off and people are gathering that The Danish Girl just isn't that good. I haven't sensed any passion for it as a film since its early buzz. People seem especially dispassionate about Eddie's performance, so I think that'll leave room for Jacob to sneak in...
I could be (and probably...most certainly am) off base since I haven't crunched the statistics in a while, but they were smart enough to kick Kate's lesser performance to the curb in 2008 and put The Reader perf in Best Actress, too. I dunno... I guess they did nominate Julia for August: Osage County. That's pretty damn fraudulent. And Hailee for True Grit... aye, my argument is falling apart!
I also think the same will apply to Rooney and they'll go Rooney for Best Actress and then nominate Alicia's superior performance in Ex Machina in its rightful category. This is just my crackpot theory that will probably be proven wrong.
I'm also gonna call that Helen Mirren will get in over Jennifer Jason since Oscar has never loved her. That leaves room for Kristen Stewart in Clouds. Obviously, these last two sentences fall into the category of "wishful thinking," but a girl can dream, can't she?
I have a question - when voting on Best Adapted Screenplay, do Academy members receive a copy of the adapted screenplay AND the original source material for their consideration? Or do they just get the screenplay?
u are predicting both jane fonda AND helen mirren? yuck! (and i never use that word). btw , this is not in regards to the actresses, only those very non- oscar-worthy performances lol