Prediction Stats & Well Wishing
Thursday, January 14, 2016 at 12:05PM 
Focus, Nathaniel, focus. So many posts are in embryonic stages of writing so be patient. This day is so demanding but we love it. It's our Christmas (Oscar Night being our New Year's Eve). True, The Academy always delivers a few ungodly lumps of coal (like ignoring Carol in Best Picture) but you take the bad with the good or you go insane.
First we should begin by saying "Congratulations!" to all the nominees. In the next 48 hours we'll talk about our favorite choices the Academy made, wonder about the headscratchers, say a symbolic farewell to our beloved but snubbed, and cover trivia and such. If you missed recent interviews with some of the nominees now would be a great time to catch up with them and comment away: Jack Fisk (Production Design, The Revenant), Jacqueline West (Costume Design, The Revenant), Phyllis Nagy (Screenplay, Carol), László Nemes (Foreign Film, Son of Saul), Deniz Gamze Ergüven (Foreign Film, Mustang). More Oscar Nominee interviews are coming soon including Alicia Vikander, Sandy Powell, Chivo, and a little Star Wars: The Force Awakens.
As for how I did on my predictions? I scored 79% accuracy in the big eight categories but a 74% overall. Not shabby but not great either in one of the more difficult years I've experienced as a pundit. You can see the breakdown on the nomination index page (nailed Actor and Sound Editing, biffed big time on Song & Production Design) or on this blow by blow account.
Did the morning turn out as you'd predicted?
One things for sure: If you were betting against The Revenant you were viciously mauled by The Academy. They went for it in nearly every category they could save Best Supporting Actress where they passed on Judy the bear. I'll confess: though I admire much of the craftwork, it's already my great borennoyance of the season, just grunting and bleeding and sufferring and suffocatingly obssessed with its own masculinity.
Reader Comments (51)
Big ups to Judy! I've never felt so simultaneously terrified and tickled than when she talked to me on Twitter.
Also 74% feels like an amazingly high percentage in this nutso year!
I just realized what a happy delight it is that Mirren got nothing. One of the most irksome developments of 2015 was her hogging 20 percent of the SAG nominations for women.
For a year recognizing so much worthy stuff, the Carol miss is aggravating beyond words.
Best Actress is REALLY strong. Amazed how beautiful all of those performances are.
Very happy for "Sicario," especially that score nod, although I was getting my hopes up that it was going to land some big 8 categories.
Bummed for "Carol" but especially Haynes, who is the heart and soul of that movie.
The writers definitely did NOT go for "The Revenant."
I did not predict that the Academy would compile a Best Supporting Actor lineup consisting of THREE performances I despise. After having seen all but 7 Oscar-nominated performances, I'm pretty sure that I've never before HATED the majority of any Oscar acting shortlist. Christian Bale in The Big Short, Tom Hardy in The Revenant and Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight should go to the Razzies, not the Oscars. A rather unfortunate outcome for the category, especially since I otherwise like both The Revenant and Spotlight.
And lord and master, before your usual howling begins: Two category frauds (Mara and Vikander) is the annual average. Although I have to admit that Sylvester Stallone is pretty much a co-lead in Creed (who can go supporting, I think).
JJ -- ah yes. small miracles given AMPAS freakout over this movie.
If Malick's The New World didn't exist I might've been more impressed with The Revenant. This year's ceremony is seeming more boycottable by the minute.
Re: the Revenant. While there were definitely some elements to admire (I was with the movie for the first hour or so and still think the battle scenes were great) the anachronistic masculinity really rubbed me the wrong way. Hardy calling Leo's son a "girly little bitch" or something like that is just so, totally not the 1820s. For that matter, the only women in the movie being dead/idealized "noble savage" ghost wife who never speaks, and the stolen/raped daughter (really? A taken rip off?) who never (or barely) speaks was so needless. It literally contributed nothing to the plot beyond "we respect each other as men when we help return our female property to one another." Um, really? If you really don't want to have women do things then just don't have them there. Also: if your film is going to have rape, ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE MOST LIKELY CHARACTER TO GET RAPED WAS WILL POULTER'S!! For all the Frenchmen talking about women with big jugs and the rape etc etc there is no--zip zero zilch--mention of the fact that men in this remote/rugged environments more often turned to EACH OTHER to satisfy their sexual desires--sometimes with consent, sometimes not. Until we can get some acknowledgement of that fact we should go ahead and stop including woman rape in our movies, please and thank you.
Willy: That's probably overstating it (they're probably not nomination worthy performances, but they're also not worst of the year bad) and not really understanding what the Razzies current MO is. Even if we still had the occasionally cool, early 80s Razzies that nominated James Coco and Amy Irving for their awards in spite of appearing at Oscar? You'd still probably see Redmayne for The Danish Girl there before you saw any of the three you're citing.
I actually really liked Jennifer Lawrence in "Joy", but I have to confess my disappointment that she took one of the two spots which immediately made themselves up for grabs when Mara and Vikander were both announced in Support.
My immediate response to the category fraud when they announced Supporting Actress (beyond throwing up a little in my mouth) was that it meant two interesting performances would be landing in Lead as a result. Thrilled Rampling got one spot, and just disappointed it wasn't Tomlin for the other.
No nominations for Tarantino (himself) make me feel pretty magnanimous toward JJL and the rest of the H8ful team. Congrats to all!
And I guess this means I will have to watch The Revenant next week.
catbaskets: You overplayed your hand with that last sentence, but yeah, I don't buy the idea that dude on dude rape wasn't more common in these scenarios. If you're going to go miserable anyway, go all the way, show a man on man rape.
So angry Del Toro didn't happen.
LOVE that performance
Del Toro was my one prediction where I let my heart trump my head. It's the best supporting performance by any actor this year, and I would put it only behind MacKellan in Mr. Holmes and Tomlin in Grandma for best overall. He had to be close considering they didn't hate Sicario, but the Spotlight-Revenant love swept Hardy and Ruffalo in - not that I'm hating, they're both very good.
Celebrating Carol's 6 nominations. It could've been worse. 6 Oscar noms is a great push at the box office.
Quietly loving the Ridley Scott omission. The more films I watch, the less of a fan I am.
No nominations for Tarantino (himself) make me feel pretty magnanimous toward JJL and the rest of the H8ful team. Congrats to all!
I love Paul.
So angry Del Toro didn't happen.
Please. All you cared about was Lawrence getting in. Congrats.
The good:
Mad Max overperforming (can it win Best Director do we think?)
The Best Actress category is divine (people keep calling Lawrence the weak link but they cannot separate the performance from the film -- or the celebrity -- because she is great in that)
Room in for Best Director and Picture, and Brooklyn in for Best Picture
The Animated category
The Visual Effects category (best lineup that category's ever had)
Carol performing well in some craft categories
Sly Stallone (He is so winning)
7th noms for Cate and Kate
The screenplay categories are much better than they could have been
Though I don't love the performances they are nominated for, I am pleased that Rachel McAdams and Tom Hardy are now forever Oscar-nominees Rachel McAdams and Tom Hardy
The bad:
CAROL (Seriously after all the crap films Harvey has gotten nominated THIS is the one he can't manage???)
#OscarsSoWhite (Not big on Idris but Michael B Jordan, Oscar Isaac, and the Tangerine girls all would have made quality and deserving nominees even in a competitive year like this)
Category fraud ruining the supporting actress category which was turning out to be such an exciting and weird race (even though I love Vikander and Mara) (It seems the only way to get a supporting actress nomination these last few years is either to be a co-lead in your film or to be the only woman in a mostly male cast of a prestige film - all 5 this year are one of those two)
The Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor categories are just not good, too many weak or overdone performances
No Tremblay, Dano, Tomlin, Fonda, or Jordan (seriously they have to get Jane there somehow because she was epic at the Golden Globes)
catbaskets: I think you're right (though I'm not whole hog for male rape either) in explaining why the film rings so hollow, beyond the clear craftsmanship behind it. I can't imagine someone would walk away from it and continue to think about it its characters or themes.
They went for "The Revenant" way harder than I expected, they even gave it "best visual effects" -who expected that?
I do agree that there were some lazy choices in the acting categories. But the SAG choices were even worse. At least the Oscars nominated Rampling...
Time to take a break from all this and watch some Alan Rickman films.
Academy: Your film has incredible acting, amazing cinematography, it's awesomely written, great costumes and wow, what a score… but I guess it just directed itself.
Volvagia, I do think that the hams in Oscar's Worst Supporting Actor lineup are absolutely worst of the year bad - Bale in particular. At the same time I also understand the Razzies' current MO, since I'm regretting for a long time that they're going for easy targets like Alvin And The Chipmunks instead of attacking misguided prestige projects. (For some reason I at least have got to think about Room and The Big Short here.)
And those Razzie noms for James Coco in Only When I Laugh and Amy Irving in Yentl were not cool but embarrassing, since both Coco and Irving were actually good in their movies - in my opinion at least.
Sigh, if only Lindsay Lohan would've stayed on track she might've gotten the SPOTLIGHT part that went to her co-star, Rachel McAdams....
lol
I have to say the screenplay nominations are way better than I thought, I was really worried for Carol and Room there and they both got in, it's a shame Steve Jobs couldn't get in there.
No costume design nod for Brooklyn breaks my heart, best work of the year in my opinion.
I've been loving the interviews. Keep 'em coming!
I saw one Inarritu film about 10 years ago, and I hated it. My best friend braved his next film, and disliked it, too. I have never given him another try. Maybe I should, since he's likely winning Oscar two years in a row.
I love Bryan Cranston as much as anyone, so I'm sad I can't be happy for him, but that spot was Ian McKellen's!!!
Also sad I can't be happy for Mara and Vikander because I like them both just fine.
Tom Hardy and Charlotte Rampling though. Yay!!
@Nat
You comment on The Revenant being a "man" picture . while don 't you think Carol is a "woman" picture? ... certainly both did their jobs ... so who cares about the sexual aspect of the movies?
I thought The Revenant was both gruesome AND boring. I just don't get it and will have to disagree. I'm okay with Leo finally winning in a weak field.
"borennoyance" is now my new favorite word, and exactly sums up my feelings about "The Revenant." It's very well made, but...really doesn't have anything interesting to say.
Overall, these nominations were not nearly as bad as I was fearing, though I too am sad for Carol.
"Volvagia, I do think that the hams in Oscar's Worst Supporting Actor lineup are absolutely worst of the year bad - Bale in particular."
Yeah, the supporting actor category is the worst, with at least 2 bad performances. I'm not sure what Mark Ruffalo was doing in Spotlight, but it was a little weird, and Bale really needs someone to reign him in - he's become pretty tiresome. Then there's Stallone, I don't know. He has contributed to so much cinematic pollution over the years (Rambo - UGH), it's hard for me to care about him or root for him. I haven't seen The Revenant and I'm sure Tom Hardy is fine in it (he was fantastic in a little-seen movie called Locke a couple of years ago), so I hope either he or Mark Rylance get the gold.
I hope Jane stays home frowning in ruffles as 1 of the category frauders collect her prize.
Rick -- CAROL is completely a "woman's picture" sure, the classic definition. but what's your point?
I am amazed people loved Tom Hardy in The Revenant that much. Is overacting an award-worthy thing now?
If only Charlize was nominated! SHOULD'VE BEEN THE 11th!!!
Was seriously waiting after the BP were announced for somebody to say - "No, No, I made a mistake, The Martian is the runner - up, it's Carol that's nominated"
I was very surprised that Sorkin's script for Steve Jobs wasn't nominated. I know the only big win he had was at the Globes, but judging from all the critics nominations, I thought he was a shoo-in.
For them to nominate Big Short's convoluted screenplay instead just speaks to their idiocy; same old, same old.
"Is overacting an award-worthy thing now?"
Batman, Bane and Hulk with one accord: "YEEEEESSSSSSSSSS!!!!!"
Why are people only "sad" about CAROL's best picture snub. There should be *outrage*. It had the MOST golden globe and BAFTA nominations (& won critics awards). They could nominate up to 10 films and it still missed out?!?!
Having Room nominated for Picture AND Director goes quite a ways (but by no means all the way) to compensating for the outrageous snubs of Carol. I'm also a little bummed that the ravishing Crimson Peak couldn't get one measly nomination. Like The Revenant's costumes were anything special? And cheers to the overrated Ridley Scott not being nominated for the overrated The Martian!
Willy: If you're trying to make fun of Tom Hardy's Bane it's "OF COURSE!"
I'm so sad for Carol and Haynes. They truly deserved to be nominated. But I'll get over it, like always. It's a movie that will stand the test of time.
I'm angry at the lack of imagination in the acting nominees. It's just sort of mixing up the Golden Globe, BFCA, and BAFTAs into one pot. Why is that Best Actor category so weak when there are so many others that would have been much more worthy nominees? The Academy doesn't seem to have a single original thought. Open your f'in mind. #OscarsSoBoring
Phyllis Nagy and Charlotte Rampling, I guess. But how could they not nominate “Carol”? In the year of a glorious Supreme Court decision and the 10 year anniversary of “Brokeback”, it’s utterly CRUSHING to see they left a hugely acclaimed same-sex love story out of their Best Picture lineup
Ken: " I'm also a little bummed that the ravishing Crimson Peak couldn't get one measly nomination. Like The Revenant's costumes were anything special? And cheers to the overrated Ridley Scott not being nominated for the overrated The Martian!"
Ken, you are speaking the truth. I didn't like Crimson Peak all that much, but man, the film was gorgeous - a production design or cinematography nom (or both) would have been more than deserved. And don't even get me started on The Martian and all that's wrong with it.
I saw REVENANT yesterday, and I didn't love the movie, but didn't hate it either. When I reflected, both during and after the movie, I thought that the directing and acting (well, Leo, maybe not Hardy so much) were the strong points, but the script and the music let it down. So the nominations work for me somehow (except for the fact that it dominated, I guess).
Bruno - I didn't even make that connect, but you're totally right -- all those design people nominated for The Revenant today all did similar Early America-era outdoor naturalism in The New World. And better, by my accounts.
Was See You Again not nominateable as best song? It surprised me not to see it, at least as a tribute to all the "fallen soldiers" this year.
Nat
My point is You found The Revenant too macho. I enjoyed it and did not find it boring as you did
I found Carol too womanly and did not enjoy it. That's all.
I know it may be just me but I don't not get the fuss over "Mad Max: Fury Road". Nine nominations?? Come ON!!
I know it may be just me but I don't get the fuss over "Mad Max: Fury Road". Nine nominations?? Come ON!!
Volvagia, for the rest of the season, it's "YOUR PUNISHMENT MUST BE MORE SEVERE!!!", since I'm also not keen on Mad Max: Fury Road - and the upcoming Brie Larson win.