Amy & Isabelle... and that perplexing Best Actress race.
Wednesday, January 11, 2017 at 10:28PM 
Isabelle Huppert shared this lovely glamorous blur of two of our Best Actress Contenders at a Globe party on her Instagram account. Share worthy it is though our favorite part is Huppert's matter of fact no-frills captions which are usually "avec [insert celebrity's name]" brief.
These two ginger beauties remind us that we've been playing with that Best Actress Chart all day and no combo of five women still feels quite right. Something's got to give. But we don't want to give any of them up! Now more than ever can't we cancel one of the male acting categories and just give them women another 5 slots?
Who do you think is stronger than the buzz suggests? I keep thinking Ruth Negga which is why I still am betting on her (for this update at least. We'll obviously have to revisit each chart for final predictions). And which leading lady is more vulnerable and could be a surprise miss? Sound off!
Reader Comments (68)
It is never unwise to bet against Streep. You say it yourself. She has the GG, SAG, and BAFTA nomination and you still cannot put her in the top 5. And she had one hell of a week after that GG speech. Good grief!
I'm hoping against hope that Huppert gets in. For my money that performance is head and shoulders above the competition. I think (like most others) that Stone and Portman are locked.
I also believe that Streep and Adams will bag their usual reserved spots. Which only leaves room for one more. I just have a feeling that Huppert will wind up battling fr that fifth slot with Taraji P. Henson. "Hidden Figures" is benefiting from its perfect release timing (plus good reviews and great audience response). My gut tells me that come nomination day, Bening and Negga, worthy though they might be, will wind up on the outside looking in.
I'm calling Stone, Portman, Adams, Huppert, and Streep. As others have commented, I feel that Negga's performance is too quiet to crack the top 5 -- especially when contending with the WAVES Streep's speech visibly made in the GG audience (full of Academy voters!). I'd thought Streep would be left out because of the featherweight nature of the role/film, but a vote for Streep is a political statement this year.
Stone, Portman, Streep, Adams and Huppert all in.
Bening could bump Huppert but Negga is out at this point.
Is definitively an interesting race this year, for a change.
I don't understand that Nathaniel. Just when you rid Bening, you upstage Negga??!! For which reasons? As you said, she's the least known name of the group, her performance is too quiet and restrain, her film has failed to gain streight beyond her and not only the competition is strong but also has more elements in favor. Even Bening (Which can be explained as the late-entry contender) had more sense as the surprise nominee than Negga, heck even Blunt has the BO cloud for TGOTT. It's illogical keeping Negga at this moment in the top 5.
I agree with your top four—that's kind of settled itself objectively. For the final spot, it's truly anybody's game.
— Streep is Streep. She hasn't missed a precursor, has she? This campaign feels heftier than those DOA Helen Mirren vehicles that have netted precursor attention.
— On the other hand, Bening is Bening. She's Hollywood royalty and NEVER shows up emptyhanded, performancewise. Maybe she's doing covert ops schmoozing—the Bening Underground? I would feel a moral imperative to vote for Annette Bening every single time I was called to do so.
—Your Negga bet might pay off. I personally can't see any reason why it would be her except BECAUSE it'd feel like a curveball and the AMPAS throws those sometimes.
In any case, some pundit will guess correctly and take a huge victory lap for guessing correctly even though it's just a matter of luck. We have no idea.
I'm starting to think Negga will drop off the list in favor of The Streep. Particularly after the Globes speech, Streep fever will be even stronger than unusual.
I agree with the rest of your picks: Adams, Huppert, Portman and Stone all feel solid. Negga is the only newcomer and her film was not the breakthrough hit that would otherwise guarantee her place. It's a shame because Negga's performance was revelatory. Streep was fine but not anywhere close to that.
Also: Just think how much more competitive this category would be if Paramount wasn't committing category fraud on Viola Davis' behalf.
As much as I like Amy Adams, I don't think she is a lock. Her movie is Sci Fi and do they really want to nominate her over others? I am going with Huppert, Negga, Portman, Stone, Streep. It seems to fulfill various narratives.
Yeah, if you still can't give into Streep at this point, I don't know what it'll take lol.
I was with you before, but after that Globes speech and the headlines, it's more than a performance/Streep thing at this point. She's gonna be nominated because people will want to show their support of what she said in her speech. Plus, she's had all the major precursors.
-Emma Stone
-Meryl Streep
-Natalie Portman (could kinda see her missing in a shocker...but she won't)
-Isabelle Huppert
-Amy Adams
I think it's unfortunately locked up at this point, no matter how sad it is that women I want in will miss.
At this point, Annette Bening is out. Ruth Negga has more of a chance than her. Heck, Emily Blunt has more of a shot than her right now.
And I think Taraji will get some votes but not enough to get in. But who knows.
Should be interesting to watch, but honestly I don't think nomination morning will be as interesting as everyone is thinking. It'll probably be the usual suspects Streep and Adams, with the ingenues Portman and Stone, and Huppert who is more secure than many think.
With that said, if anyone from that five misses, I think it might be Amy Adams.
Regardless of what happens, it's gonna be a painful nomination morning for this category. Not that any of the top seven aren't worthy, it would just hurt too much to see Negga, Huppert or Bening miss out on a nomination.
I would trade out Adams and Streep in a heartbeat. Theirs are the most immediate performances of the seven--both brilliant, don't get me wrong--but never quite reaching the nuance, complexity or impact of Stone, Portman, Huppert, Bening and Negga. That's my dream five.
1. Stone
2. Huppert
3. Portman
4. Adams
5. Streep
Vulnerable? Doubt anyone is. Bening was never really close - release date. Negga is under-known - she couldn't even get the BAFTA nomination. Blunt will probably get nominated her next time at bat - well, whatever is after Mary Poppins Returns (egads). That said, if I had to drop someone, I could imagine Portman getting the boot.
Dark Horse? Henson. But I doubt it.
Maybe I'm nervous but what if Isabelle just misses? It would break a Golden Globe record and be a completely glaring snub but that film is tricky. I think voters would much rather watch Bening, Streep, Negga's vehicle, even if they have heard of this french movie about rape starring a legend they're unfamiliar with. I'm predicting her for now (at Bening's expense unfortunately), but that could change.
Isabelle Huppert gives the year's best performance and in a just world she'd be taking that Oscar back to Paris. But, for my money, Kate Beckinsale's the runner-up. Just a shame her revelatory work in "Love and Friendship" didn't get more awards season traction. She was out of the blue wonderful.
As much as I love her, I'd love it if Adams sat this one out, but AMPAS is obsessed with her and the film is a massive hit, so not looking likely. I think if you swapped Negga for Streep, that's the line-up.
@John, I almost agree with you, but I'd hate for that to happen to Huppert. I'm genuinely perplexed that she won the Golden Globe. Ecstatic, but perplexed nonetheless.
Also, guys, could you *imagine* if Emily Blunt got in?! That would be an awful shock.
Nathaniel- sadly, if Oscar voters snub Streep Oscar nomination Morning, some conservative circles may interpret it as the Acdemy punishing Streep for speaking her mind at the Globes.
I think Amy Adams is more locked than any other actress on the list, with the possible exception of Stone. No matter what you think of Nocturnal Animals or her performance in it, that film is surging right now, which only helps her Arrival campaign. Plus, she is considered (over)due (for a win), plus there's that Blanchett tribute speech *and* the Streep shout-out and and and.
The other three? Portman, Huppert and...
My heart says Bening, my head says Streep, my intuition says Negga.
@ John: The myth making the rounds that Elle is a hard sit is weird to me. It's remarkably enjoyable to watch, despite the plot.
@ Ken: Despite the success of Elle, there's something about a beautiful woman behaving like a man (or a sociopath) that some people find hard to take. Lady Susan is not the Jane Austen movie heroine we're used to, and Beckinsale plays her to perfection. Too well, it would seem.
@Paul that's compelling evidence re. Adams. I always forget about Nocturnal Animals....Probably because I absolutely loathed it haha I;m curious though, what about Negga has you so convinced she's a lock?
There is usually someone who has the requisite precursor nominations of CC, SAG, GLOBE, and BAFTA who misses out at the very end (Jake Gyllenhaal, Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton, etc) and this year I'm betting it's Amy Adams. I know it's probably unwise, but I can't see Portman or Stone missing (Stone in the best picture front runner, Portman has many celebrities cheering and championing this performance) and Streep is HOT right now and it can't be underestimated how much actors love her (she even made it over Thompson for August: Osage County and there was just so little buzz for that film or performance). Huppert is peaking at the right time and easily fits into the Rampling/Riva slot of unrecognized legends finally getting their due.
I think that last spot will go to Ruth Negga. It's just a hunch, but I think there's many who adore that performance and will want to nominate her. Obviously, it's very likely Adams will get that slot, but I'm sticking with Huppert, Negga, Portman, Stone, Streep.
@ Amanda
I am not at all convinced about the fifth slot. I feel like it could be any of the three I mentioned. I'd prefer it be Bening or Negga, much as I adore Streep. I just have a feeling about Negga getting in. I think she makes a certain kind of sense with the four locked ladies.
Aaron - Well, last year no one missed after getting these noms (BFCA+GG+SAG+BAFTA), thought. Also, when we check these snubs:
2006: Leonardo DiCaprio – The Departed
2011: Tilda Swinton - We Need To Talk About Kevin
2012: Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
2013: Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips / Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks / Daniel Brühl - Rush
2014: Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler
With the exception of DiCaprio (For obvious reasons with Blood Diamond), these snubbed contenders are usually lone acting filler nominees or actors with a weaker film in contention (Hanks). And they tend to be snubbed for actors with a stronger film and/or most acclaimed performance.
2011: Swinton - Mara (TGWTDT had 4 additional Oscar noms and a great run by the guilds (Fincher nominated at the DGA).
2012: Cotillard - Riva (Amour was a BP/BD nominee and Riva won critics awards)
2013: Thompson - Streep/Adams (SMB flopped really hard in precursors run, while Streep had a film with an additional acting prospect and Adams was in a top 3 film)
2013: Bruhl - Hill (TWOWS was a strong film with a potential acting dark horse)
2014: Gyllenhaal - Cooper (AS was a film with a huge BO and came strong at the last hour with 5 additional noms)
2013: Hanks - Bale (Mostly AH ended as a top 3 film and DiCaprio was consolidated as a dark horse)
If Adams is the snubbed actress you may expect "Arrival" underperforms badly at the Oscars. But then, if Villeneuve gets a DGA nom with the BAFTA? Huppert may be a lone acting contender, but also she's the passion pick and can still bring a surprise nomination (Perhaps Adapted Screenplay or Director).
That picture is just adorable LOL celebs can have blurry pics too!
BA prediction:
Isabelle Huppert(!!!)
Amy Adams (I need her to win. Now.)
Meryl Streep (That speech can only help her)
Natalie Portman (oscar bait 101)
Emma Stone (lock for picture buzz)
Still holding out for La Bening, with Meryl being dropped, but even I can't do that..
I think the only question, like mentioned above, is which one with the precursor 'grand slam' will be bumped out the last minute. As much as I like Amy Adams I think she seems the most likely right now.
Last spot? I think you guys are majorly underestimating Henson. Yes she missed the precursors but her movie is a HUGE success in every single aspect I mean critically commercially timing... everything, you name it, enthusiastic audience response, plus her tv superstardom, plus (maybe) the pc factor... Won't be surprised one bit if she pulls a Bradley cooper come nomination morning.
It doesn't matter, Streep on golden globes was like she won an oscar this year already and gave the best thank you speech in the history of all the awards. My heart still beat really fast think about her on that historic night.
I am not going to lose my hope for amy. No.
Leon - I agree with you, but in the case for Hanks, Captain Phillips was hardly a weak film with the Academy (with 6 nominations). That year was insanely competitive (like best actress is this year), with Hanks, Redford, and Phoenix as strong contenders. Not to mention Oscar Isaac who was a critics darling and Forest Whitaker who got a SAG nomination. Like Hanks, Adams is an Academy favorite, but I still don't think Arrival is really seen as an actors picture. It's likely to score well in below the line categories and I think a best picture nomination is almost a given. I just have a hunch that she's more vulnerable than Portman, Stone, and Streep and could be left out. And the Academy has passed over her before in much weaker years (Big Eyes being the most recent example, where she won the Globe and was BAFTA-nominated).
Imo, Stone, Portman, Adams, Streep r the locks now. After THE speech, a non nom for Streep wld seems like a rude disrespectful snub n thr is no goin to happen, judgin fr tge luv n respect she us commanding.
Huppert, much as everyone here is elated w her GG surprise win is still the the most vulnerable one here as thr are too many odds working agst her. But i tink her major critic's n GG wins gave her the much needed boast to knock off La Bening to secure the last spot.
Negga probably at the 7th spot now. In ano yr probably she will get more buzz but sadly this yr too stacked n Loving's momentum never pick up.
Henson probably at no. 8. I dun tink the voters r goin for her since they r gonna nom Spencer n they will feel she will b the de facto nominee fr tt film n her nom will represent a recognition for the three ladies.
Portman is giving me Hanks/Captain Phillips vibes. I'm starting to see her missing.
Adams, Huppert, Portman, Stone, Streep
It is super clear to me. I hope to be proven wrong, specially if it means La Bening is in.
Adams, Huppert, Portman, Stone, Streep.
That's who I'm thinking at the moment. I do hope Streep is left out for Bening or Negga, just because she's had so many nominations before but her work in FFJ is great and it is never wise to bet against Streep! Learnt that the hard way with Thompson in '13. And also don't bet against Adams. As was proved in '12 and '13.
That being said. I feel like Adams could be a Hanks situation, but we'll see!
My dream line-up for nomination morning (that is plausible) would be Bening, Huppert, Negga, Portman, Stone. I would love to see Negga there as it would be the first time a person of colour is nominated in every category in the same year, and her performance is beautiful.
It literally feels like they are all surging at the right time... except for Bening, sadly. Even Negga seems like people are finally starting to know her by name thanks to all the magazines, profiles, Meryl's shout out. I also think LOVING may do better than we expect (a quiet achiever ala Foxcatcher).
But, truly, I'm not convinced about Huppert. I'm predicting her, but I don't think anybody on Oscar morning will be able to say "well duh!" if it comes to pass.
This race is so hard to predict because just a few votes will separate the #3 contender from the #7 contender. I truly believe the only lock is Stone.
adams/huppert/portman/stone/streep* seems one of the more locked line-ups [along with supporting actress]
*apart from all the other factors mentioned, streep deserves this nod more than her previous two nominations
I agree with Glenn-they weirdly all feel like they're surging at the same time except Bening (even Henson). I think the list of Stone, Adams, Portman, Huppert, and Streep is correct, but I don't think anyone except Stone is completely safe, and I think you could make an argument for anyone (including Negga) making the final list. Anyone who says they know this one for certain is kidding themselves.
It's worth noting, though, that Blunt feels like the sort of candidate we assume is a long-shot until it happens and then suddenly everyone saw it coming. SAG, BAFTA, Oscar-bait role, and a performer we've all been complaining for years should be an Oscar nominee but somehow hasn't sank the basket quite yet. I think she's being under-discussed because no one liked the movie, but that hasn't stopped other long overdue actors from making it to AMPAS before (Just look at her Prada costar Stanley Tucci for proof).
You're swimming in wishful thinking Nathaniel.
I'm not defending Meryl and know she doesn't need this nomination
but what's the actual evidence pushing Negga ahead of Streep?
I'd argue the most vulnerable player is Huppert, not Streep
The top 5:
1. Stone - Globe win, BOX OFFICE, Critical Acclaim, Movie Dominates awards shows
2. Portman - SAG + Globe + BAFTA noms, Critical Acclaim, portrays real person
3. Adams - SAG + Globe + BAFTA noms, BOX OFFICE, Critical Acclaim, Fantastic word of mouth! Actress is overdue for a win! I'd switch her position with Portman's but let's be sceptical.
4. Streep - SAG + Globe + BAFTA noms, Meryl Streep, Powerful Globes Speech Generating Strong Buzz, Box Office stronger than Elle or Loving, the best reviewed Streep movie of recent memory, portrays real person
5. Huppert - Globe win, Dominates Critics awards, Critical Acclaim, dreadfully overdue for a nomination since she's a legend. But film in a foreign language, minuscule Box Office gains, where's that SAG nomination? Annette Bening, another legend that's overdue, could sneak in.
My wildcard pick is Taraji...I guess she could bounce out Streep. I hope Blunt is not going to happen. That would be a disaster.
John -- i dont' think the Academy is as unfamiiar with Huppert as movie fans in general on the internet are. People often don't process how much older Oscar members are than they are. And the older generation -- for as much as they get dinged about being out of touch -- are far more likely to know the careers of famous foreign film stars since it was only really these past twenty years when foreign films stopped being a prestige thing that adult moviegoers were regularly interested in. Huppert has been an international star since the 1970s. She's been in the occasional American film (so she's worked with Hollywood types) and she's had widely discussed movies in every decade of her stardom like (see list below -- Asterisk means Oscar or BAFTA nominated or Cannes winning movies -- at least in one category)
70s The Lacemaker*, Violette*
80s Coup de Torchon*, Heaven's Gate*, Entre Nous*
90s The Ceremony, Madame Bovary*
00s The Piano Teacher*, 8 Women, I Heart Huckabees
10s Amour*, Elle
in other words I think she's in the third position and not budging. I think spots 4 & 5 are the free for all. I get that Streep & Adams are both default players but i still have a hard time thinking they both aren't vulnerable...( though obviously one of them will make it and maybe both)
Yavor -- the Negga thing is NOT wishful thinking as she wouldn't make my ballot. Its just a weird hunch. or "intuition* as Paul puts it. I would 10000x times prefer Bening making the list and would literally sacrifice anyone except Huppert to get her in.
That photo gives me such a massive and instant dopamine high. I don't want to compromise the rush by giving Ampass any thought whatsoever at this moment.
In fact let's all just remind ourselves that irrespective of the next wave - or indeed any wave - of nominations announced, these two women will still live on as icons 100 years from now based on their already astonishing bodies of work.
Assuming, of course, civilisation survives Jan 20th etc etc.
Despite my admiration for Streep's speech, I need her and Adams to step aside for Bening and Huppert. Unless they're concern about including black girls in Best Actress, I don't see how Negga and Henson factor in?
Nathaniel - I am curious to hear your take on Kidman's recent interview with People magazine that Americans should get in line and support Trump. Will you be linking to that article?
Another thing about Adams: she wants this, and not just for the prestige. The Oscar is also a negotiating tool, and Adams (turning 43 this year) is certainly aware of how difficult it is for a woman to get the leading one once she hits 35. But you can't win unless you get nominated, so she's campaigning fiercely.
And don't forget: she was also Lois Lane in the eight biggest domestic release of 2016.
Jamie -- i will not be sharing it, no. No sense helping that get out into the world. It's actually more common than people think though... that ignorant mindset. Whathsername (Ozzy's daughter) used her platform with an LGBT organization giving her an award to say the same thing even though this administration is the most virulently homophobic we've seen in decades.
I'm honestly worried that Portman might be snubbed. "Jackie" (which I've now seen four times) obviously proved too challenging for most viewers, unlike Stone and Streep's films, which are accessible to fourth graders and up. (Had "Jackie" been a maudlin, "Lincoln"-style weepfest, she'd be running away with the thing; alas, they created something of artistic value.)
I just really hope Portman and Huppert both make it.
A couple of months ago I said I had a feeling that Natalie Portman would be left out. This idea is merely biased, since I am not a fan. I will see the film -which comes out Feb 23 here in Argentina- but now there are 3 or 4 comments here predicting the same thing.
Is Henson really that good in the movie? I read a couple of reviews that said that she was not. That Spencer and Monáe were better.
Finally, even though I have not seen two of the films, this would be my list:
Amy Adams
Emma Stone
Meryl Streep
Isabelle Huppert
Annette Bening
Kidman's shortsighted response just cost her her comeback narrative. It started with Lion and will likely end with Lion. But she has several big things up the pipeline to get excited about. And after Meryl's speech she's made matters worse for herself. I think living in the southern United States with a country musician has fucked her up.
marcos -- as a big fan of Taraji i can say that she's not that good, no. COMPARATIVELY TO THIS FIELD. I love her though. The errant predictions are coming from the fact that she has one huge Oscar baity clip scene and that people really really love the movie. Which might be enough in a normal year but i don't see how in this year it could be enough. It's nothing like the kind of meaty role the other competitors are working with. The character is just not in that realm though she is good as usual.
/3rtful & Jamie -- technically we don't know when Nicole gave that interview (it was just published now) and A LOT OF PEOPLE (including electing Democrats) have been saying that since the election. Maybe not this week but before this week. I don't agree and wish she hadn't said it but this isn't the scandal people are making it out to be.
but yeah, celebrities are sometimes "out of touch" -- not in the way the right wing claims -- in that they have such insulation from the world. Scads of money and ability to travel and live in multiple places (Nicole & Keith have dual citizenship from my understanding) and protect themselves from what a corrupt government can throw at them... unlike regular citizens. It's why Susan sarandon and other Bernie or Bust celebrities can be so careless about painting Hilary Clinton as the devil (because whoever is elected, they'll be fine with their millions and millions) and helping an actual regime to rise by splintering the opposition to them.
Also, are we underestimating Blunt with her SAG/BAFTA duo?
Her making the line-up (for that horrific turd of a movie) over anyone (save Streep) may offer the final echo of a bitch slap from 2016.
Do you seriously not have Streep in your final five after that monumental Globes speech and overperformance of "FFL" everywhere? Gurl, bye. Negga isn't even in contention anymore. "Loving" is sadly DOA. Adams, Huppert, Portman, Stone, and Streep. Easy peasy.