Final Oscar Nomination Predictions Complete!
Saturday, January 21, 2017 at 8:35AM ... unless I change my mind Sunday night.
Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor
In both of these categories after much tinkering, jigsaw reconfigurations, and what ifs I said to myself something I rarely say to myself even though I shouldn't be so stingy with these words "you're overthinking it". So I'm going for no surprises rather than surprises in both categories. I do however strongy believe that if someone misses in Best Actress it's either Portman (yes really) or Streep and the replacements is Annette Bening (who should be competing for the win but we can't always have nice things, now can we?). If I have a last minute change of heart, I think I'm going to predict a surprise Portman snub and a Bening nomination. Streep seems most vulnerable of the top five in theory (not a lot of excitement about her film or performance... just her being Streep and that awesome Golden Globe speech) but with so much support still for so many women, her default-to-Streep advantage will probably come into play.
In supporting actor I was toying with a Ben Foster surprises scenario, because even after the Globe win and BAFTA nomination I don't totally buy the Aaron Taylor-Johnson buzz. I've resisted predicting Lucas Hedges most of the year (the only man in that lineup who I think is vulnerable) because of his age. Though he'll be the 8th youngest male acting nominee in supporting EVER at age 20, I think the Best Picture lock-up for his vehicle and Casey Affleck's likely #1 placements on a huge number of ballots should give him just the boost he needs.
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Reader Comments (65)
Now it is time to predict where the out of left field surprise will be. I'm thinking it might be Best Actor and a surprise nomination for Keaton.
Nathaniel, I have seen Jackie twice and I was extremely mixed on it. I thought Portman was amazing in certain scenes and terrible in others.it was my most anticipated movie of the season and it left me cold. Have you talked to Oscar voters who feel the same way? What are they saying about Portman's performance?
Portman I think is vulnerable,they like warm characters,Jackie is just too cold & Portman in it,my surprise nominee is Negga.
I have a feeling the "surprise nominee" will be a Best Actress one this year. Maybe it's wishful thinking...
What I really was trying to say the other day is that it's Huppert who's vulnerable, me thinks. Bc Elle is even LESS appreciated than Jackie as a film. And characterizing legends or actual human beings have always payed off. So, much to my desmay, it's Huppert who's missing (and I want her to win!) and Bening is in bc is a Hollywood legend. Negga is under the radar much like Edgerton and Loving. Jackie, at least, have received some support fron below the lines guilds. That means people watched it! Who's watching Elle And Suppert?:) The old farts who constitute the core of the votying body doesn't even know who this French Lady is!! They know Bening, though.
Had voting closed even one week later I think Henson would have been in. She still has a great shot but I agree with Nathaniel's final five. As for Supporting Actor, I am predicting Patel, Bridges, Hedges, Foster, and Ali. I can't decide if Grant or Hedges misses.
Imo, Huppert is indeed more vulnerable than Portman. Jackie maybe cold but Elle is even more unconventional. But her GG win did make voters sit up n take notice. Had 20th CW rec more buzz n released in Nov, Bening wld b in. But i guess these final 5 r more or less most pundits' guess.
BSA i tink Hedges had a hi chance o being replaced by either ATJ or Ben Foster. I'm predicting a surprise here. Ali, Bridges, Grant, Patel n last slot, Foster.
WOW, that is a big reversal on Portman.
You've had her locked up for months and now you are saying she is #5.
What happened?
I still think she is in the top 3.
Alsa, Taraji P. Henson could displace la Streep if we're looking for accountability (box office) AND likeability, instead of just.... "likeability" as a Hollywood de facto legend actress. I know there are some conservatives in the Industry, too. So, perhaps, the final tally may surprise us with no Adams or Streep and Henson in?
My final tally has only one doubt:
Stone
Portman
Adams
Henson
Streep (rep. Bening)
That's SAFE. And that's how these things use to go. Hidden Figures is a massive hit. The took notice.
Ow, surprise nominations????
My guests:
Supporting actor: John Hurt (Jackie) [remember William Hurt for A History of Violence and Max Von Sydow for Incredible Loud? The same think here]
Supporting actor: Issey Ogata (Silence)
Leading Actress: Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)
Directing: Paul Verhoeven (Elle)
Adapted / Original Screenplay: Elle, The Salesman, Hunt for Wilder people, Toni Erdmann, Love & Friendship.
Best Picture: Elle, Love & Friendship.
I have Garfield missing. My gut tells me he's not making it in despite two movies and precursor support.
Kris Tapley is predicting Kevin Costner in Hidden Figures for supporting which actually makes total sense.
I agree with Michael R. that a longer voting period would have changed things.
Having just seen 20th Century Women and having seen Hidden Figures (twice), both Bening and Henson would be easily in if audiences and voters had more time to see and appreciate their performances (way better than some of the "frontrunners" and "locks").
I think Portman will make it (she's had some major industry support from the likes of Julia Roberts and Reese Witherspoon + career best reviews will push her into the top 5, even though I'm not optimistic her film will score much elsewhere). Streep will make it too.
Guys, Bening is out. It's sad, but no one outside of this site seems to be talking about her film. It's not likely to even score in original screenplay.
Outside of Emma Stone, the other four of Huppert, Portman, Streep, and Adams all have vulnerabilities, and none of them feel truly "locked", which makes it difficult to decide who would be left out if someone like Henson or Negga were able to sneak in. I think the safe bet is def still Adams - Huppert - Portman - Stone - Streep, but we shall see.
The only surprise nominee I'm sure of:
Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals. Just remember that he didn't had any spot for Revolutionary Road and they have to pay for 99 Homes snub
Costner I can totally see,2 HF ladies in Supporting.
My lists almost exactly. I would put in Michael Shannon and Luke Hedges. I stead of Jeff Bridges. Also take out Kidman and replace with Gerta ..
I think Hugh Grant and Dev Patel are vulnerable (both due to category confusion). And I'm thinking Tapley is right about Costner.
And I still see Viola as the Best Actress surprise, shaking up two races in the process.
Stone, Huppert & Portman are decidedly in.
Adams, Streep, Negga, Blunt & Bening are fighting it out for the last two spots, with Adams & Streep feeling like the most likely but I would not be shocked if they both missed out.
I agree with Aaron- no surprises nomination morning for Best Actress. No Negga or Bening or last minute addition after missing Globe, SAG, or BAFTA. It has been all locked up more then we think. At this point- there is more of an argument for Blunt to get in before Negga, Henson or Bening.
Adams- Huppert- Portman- Stone- Streep
And the one vulnerable is Huppert
I was going to say... is VIOLA truly not at all a possibility (even remotely)? Were there any signs when Winslet was "promoted" lead for The Reader?
I'm lighting all the candles to hope ATJ is not nominated. Please please please.
I think Meryl's snub is planned and by herself of course. It will make headlines easily, much better than just being a side note for something she won't win.
She'll make a path to WIN her fourth on her 20th nomination. ;)
I do not think the words "Streep" and "snub" can exist in the same sentence.
I hope hope HOPE(!) that you're right abt Hedges (since my choice Alden Ehrenreich's got no chance)
I can't see the logic of nominating Costner and Spencer without Henson. The real riot would be the white actor got in and the black protagonists snubbed. That makes no sense!
Viola will absolutely stay in supporting. There's a legitimate argument for her placement (many think it's Denzel's show) and her character is the definition of "supportive".
Winslet was an entirely different situation. She had two major films in contention that year and her team was greedy and tried to convince voters that somehow she was supporting in The Reader, even though she is the clear lead player. I think absolutely the most ludicrous Oscar campaign of all time, and thank god the Academy saw through that. Violas situation isn't comparable (and she's not competing with another film like Winslet or Vikander from last year). She'll stay in supporting. Would be shocked, honestly, if she snuck into lead.
I think Bening is going to get in over Huppert.
I'm totally with you on Hedges. That film's too many places for him to miss, but I'm scared that that logic could apply to one of the Nocturnal Animals men if that film gets in big (though Shannon would be a deserved recognition). Maybe we'd lose Dev Patel?
I think Best Actress is really open to just about any theory. Long as Stone's a lock, anything sounds pretty plausible. Even Portman missing, given how much Jackie's sunk from the race practically everywhere else, and it's not like she needs it or has been overlooked in that Julianne Moore way. It's certainly not that likely, but we're a weekend away and hey, why not? I personally think Adams is gonna miss it and Blunt'll get in, or The Bening, and that Huppert is fine, but literally everything I just said could easily be backed up and completely refuted. I think Streep's safe, but maybe Hugh Grant voters aren't packaged Meryl Streep voters. We'll see. But damn I love how open this race is, how open they both are. It's so exciting and refreshing.
re: Best Supporting Actor
We've seem really strong leading contenders drag their supporting costar in despite obstacles (DiCaprio-Hardy; Bridges-Gyllenhaal; Blanchett-Hawkins) but we've also seen plenty of young people left out, particularly in those in that liminal stage (Garfield, Woodley, arguably Patel in Slumdog Millionaire). It'll be interesting to see if Hedges makes it or not, because Affleck seems like a really strong contender to outright win, which should help, but he's also really young, and they don't like it when young men take nominations from older men.
re: Best Actress
I'll be fascinated if Bening proves out. A really small film that had a minor splash at Christmas, drowned out by everything else? Heck, even Elle is currently outgrossing it. I've never quite understood the "legend" speak - she strikes me as no more a legend than Lauren Bacall, but she definitely has stronger acting credentials. I think Portman has more to worry about than Huppert - arguably Streep.
Henseon is great on the campaign trailer and the film is peaking extremely well. I suspect the margins on this vote will be very tight.
I agree that Huppert is more vulnerable than many believe.
I also wonder whether Kidman's pro-Trump comments hurt her. I think many Academy members probably vote at the end of the voting period, and Kidman's comments were news toward the end of that period (plus, AMPAS didn't nominate her for The Paperboy when she was nominated for SAG and the Globe). She could be booted for Janelle Monae.
Ryan T. - Yep there were signals with Winslet changements - Among critics and BAFTA. With Viola wasn't the same, even the critics have awarded in supporting. It's time to let it go. Viola wins in supporting.
Among the predictions. There are fine.
Chofer -- the "old farts" know who Huppert is better than most young people who follow the Oscars today and only heard of her after The Piano Teacher or Amour ;) She's been an international star for 40 years now. Trust me they know who she is. And they're into her. I attended an event for her and they were excited to talk to her about the film.
Arkaan -- yeah, if Hedges is out it will only be his age that does it. Crazy how obvious their gender bias is with age. So many women younger than him have been nominated.
Aaron -- the reason i still Bening is very possible is when people actually see the film they LOVE her performance.It's not a star turn people shrug over. The only question is if enough of them saw it.
@Jamie
We live in a world in where you-sadly-know-who is president of the US and for a long time these words seemed not to exist in the same sentence also but now they do. -.-
I've been thinking of a Portman snub since the Globe loss to Huppert...
I'm thinking:
Stone
Huppert
Adams
Bening
Streep
I'd rather see Henson or Portman stay in over Streep, but you can't win them all.
Supporting actor has me concerned for Hugh Grant. I think Hedges is safer than we expect, but I wouldn't be shocked if Hugh misses in favor of Foster or Taylor-Johnson.
as good as Streep always is I really don't think she does anything extraordinary in FFJ... in another year I wouldn´t mind her nomination but would prefer if they leave her out. Of course with her track record and that Globes speech right before nomination week she's looking very likely. I'm wishfully hoping the final slate will be yours but with Bening in stead of Streep... not many people mention the fact that she sits in the board of governors of the Academy but I hope that'll give her a push!
In the end, I think it'll be a boring Stone, Portman, Adams, Huppert, Streep lineup. As exciting and open as it is, I don't think it'll surprise. It would be fun if Viola went lead though.
If Blunt, Henson, Negga, or Bening showed up I wouldn't be surprised (in that order of likelihood).
In terms of supporting actor, I really hope ATJ misses no matter what happens, and if Dev Patel is snubbed I will be upset (category fraud or not).
Just saw Nocturnal Animals. What the hell!? Even leaving aside the, at the very least, misanthropic world view (but not even an interesting misanthropy) you also have to consider that, if you scrubbed the swear words, there are KIDS CARTOONS that get more lurid than the vision of the supposedly "lurid" novel Amy Adams is reading. The end result is a movie that is, back to front, STERILE, it's just that half of it uses a hackneyed orange filter to make it seem dirtier than it actually IS. And as far as the present day stuff? That was it? He wrote the novel because he had a...not especially nasty seeming divorce? And she read the novel because she feels guilty over aborting his child? In a movie primarily about an upper crust liberal supposedly set in 2016? C-, with only Michael Shannon keeping me from a D+. WOW, that was worse than I thought it'd be.
I have a feeling that Negga will get in, the movie reminds me of Blue Valentine, in which Gosling got snubbed and Williams got in.
Speaking of a Gosling snub....I have another feeling that Gosling will be the Leonardo DiCaprio of La La Land. I just don't see him getting those #1 votes.
Supporting actor : Ali, Bridges, Grant, Hedges, Patel
Actress : Adams, Huppert, Portman, Stone, Streep
That´s all !
Nathaniel, I think your predictions are sound - these seem to be the most secure choices. But wouldn't it be god if there were some wonderful surprises? Bening? Beckinsale? Bennett?!!
"Trust me they know who she is. And they're into her. I attended an event for her and they were excited to talk to her about the film."
I'll take your word, Nat. You've restored my faith, just like this march.
And I'm a fan since La Ceremonie! Not that young, myself:)
They announced the nominees early? Thank God this endless prediction season is over.
Emily Blunt would be an AWFUL surprise--and I'm saying that as a fan. That movie was absolutely dreadful and she was good but certainly not great in it. This year is stacked with incredible performances in this category. I'd have nominated her in the past in the supporting category for Into the Woods but will be very disappointed if she's a surprise nominee this year.
I am also with Suzanne that I see Kidman missing. Her comments (which were actually not "pro-Trump" but were unfortunately reported as such) could not have helped her at all, and I saw her in the 5th spot. Meanwhile, Hidden Figures is blowing up the box office ...
I don't see Gerwig or Gladstone getting in, so I'm gonna go with Monae. As much as people are going gaga for Gerwig, I actually preferred Fanning in 20th Century Women and think she'd be an awesome surprise nominee. But I know it ain't happening.
Also if Kevin Costner is nominated for Hidden Figures ... just no. I don't think it'll happen, but I would not be happy lol. No one had much to do in that movie, even Octavia and Taraji, who had the most. If I gave anyone from that movie a nom, it would be Taraji. But I'm not mad at Octavia getting the cred. She was solid. I would prefer Janelle Monae of all of them, as a reward for her breakout year as a new movie star, but I don't think she had enough to do.
Bening = Laura Linney in The Savages. It's gonna happen if they see the performance. She's undeniably great in the movie, and I am certainly not one of her fans.
That said, I don't see the Portman snub. As a matter of fact, I still think she's gonna win? It's the single great performance that feels as important as great. It's Jackie. It's not a musical, it's not a foreign brilliant actress that will be happy to be nominated (just like Rampling)
It's Jackie Effin' Kennedy. She doesn't need the movie to go well in other categories. Most best actress winner are in movies that less than three nominations. The fact that the movie is not going to get seven or eight nominations doesn't affect Portman.
I have to say that because I've finally seen the movie and I find troubling the notion that "she is not as great as the movie". My point is that you are used to see best actress contenders in so many awful movies (think Viola vs Meryl in those terrible movies) that when a great performance shows up in a terrific movie you think that the actress is not that great.
I don't like this idea that an actress "elevates" a movie. A terrible movie is still terrible even when it has a grat performance in it.
I find it way more interesting when performances work in sync with a project. That's what happens in Jackie. It's a sensational performance. Not my favorite of the year (Sandra Huller), but a very deserving winner.
(full disclaimer: Gold: Huller, Silver: Huppert Bronze: Bening + Portman and Braga as the other nominees).
Kostner might get it because" Hidden Figures" is such a crow pleaser. He has the Gregory Peck role - the white man with a concious
The 5-10 wide Best Picture race punishes smaller films in every other category. If your movie doesn't have Best Picture mojo, forget about your lone bid for Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, etc. If the AMPAS could populate every category with nominees from their 8 Best Picture picks, I'm sure they would.
You're either out or you're in, so I understand why it feels like Portman and Jackie could be vulnerable. We have this barbaric new system where every contender needs to be all things to all people.
@cal roth:
the people thinking that Portman will be snubbed is completely wishful thinking on their parts. Nathaniel's turnaround from locked to potential snub is very odd IMO.
There have been NO indications of that happening and every indication that she is at least in 3rd place if not in 2nd or even first (I'd say 2nd). I think her & stone being front-runners is starting to piss people off who have other horses in the race so they start looking for something to criticize.
Performance wise, Huppert, Portman or Bening wins would be better than Larson's, Moore's and Lawrence's. That is how good this year is.
Oh no. A Portman snub would be the last letdown for me in year of nothing but disappointments. I hadn't even considered this, but seeing how the box office hasn't happened... I just may never leave the house for 4 years.