Oscar Nomination Eve Jitters
Monday, January 23, 2017 at 5:00PM 
It's almost Christmas! Our Christmas that is, when we open our beautiful presents and occassional lumps of coal from the Academy. What will go in the history books tomorrow as Oscar nominees? Here's a run down of my final predictions in case you missed them (with three alterations) since the charts are being pulled tonight for reconstruction tomorrow once we have the official nominations.
All predictions are after the jump...
PICTURE
if there were still only five nominees
Arrival
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
if 6 then...
Lion
if 7 then
Hidden Figures
if 8 then
Hacksaw Ridge
if 9 then
Fences
if 10 then
Nocturnal Animals
alt. Loving and Jackie
If you check out the chart at Gurus of Gold that top nine above appears to be consensus with people disagreeing on which film is running in 10th. Will we have a significant surprise tomorrow morning?
DIRECTOR
Chazelle, La La Land
Davis, Lion
Jenkins, Moonlight
Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Villeneuve, Arrival
alt. Tom Ford or Martin Scorsese * CHANGED PREDICTION TO REINSTATE GARTH DAVIS
ACTOR
Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Gosling, La La Land
Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Washington, Fences
alt. Hanks or Edgerton
ACTRESS
Adams, Arrival
Huppert, Elle
Portman, Jackie
Stone, La La Land
Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
alt. Bening or Negga * Part of me really believes that Bening is getting nominated (though I've tried to stamp that part of me out for fear of depression -- if they saw that miracle performance they won't deny it -- but can't figure out who to be the surprise omission.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ali, Moonlight
Bridges, Hell or High Water
Grant, Florence Foster
Hedges, Manchester
Patel, Lion
alt. Ben Foster or Aaron Taylor-Johnson
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Davis, Fences
Harris, Moonlight
Kidman, Lion
Spencer, Hidden Figures
Williams, Manchester
alt. Gerwig or Monae
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Captain Fantastic
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
alt. 20th Century Women
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals
alt. Fences *CHANGED PREDICTION TO INCLUDE NOCTURNAL ANIMALS
FOREIGN FILM
Tanna, Australia
Land of Mine, Denmark
Toni Erdmann, Germany
The Salesman, Iran
A Man Called Ove, Sweden
alt. My Life as a Courgette or The King's Choice
COSTUME DESIGN
The Dressmaker
Florence Foster Jenkins
Hidden Figures
Jackie
La La Land
alt. Fantastic Beasts or Silence *Predictions for this category are all over the place if you look around the web. Exciting!
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Fantastic Beasts
The Handmaiden
Jackie
La La Land
Nocturnal Animals
alt. Arrival or Florence Foster Jenkins
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
alt. Nocturnal Animals or Hell or High Water
FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
alt. Manchester by the Sea or OJ Made in America
VISUAL EFFECTS
Arrival
Doctor Strange
Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One
alt. Passengers
HAIR AND MAKEUP
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
Star Trek Beyond
alt. A Man Called Ove
ORIGINAL SCORE
The BFG
Florence Foster Jenkins
Kubo and the Two Strings
La La Land
Lion
alt. Rogue One or Moonlight *I love looking at predictions for this around the web. People are ALL OVER THE PLACE with their guesswork.
ORIGINAL SONG
Jim: The James Foley Story
La La Land
La La Land
Miss Sharon Jones
Moana
alt. Po or Trolls or Sing Street * CHANGED PREDICTION TO DUMP SING STREET WHICH WILL MAKE ME FURIOUS BUT YOU CAN'T ALWAYS HAVE NICE THINGS
SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
alt.
Rogue One or Doctor Strange
SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deadpool
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
Sully
alt. Dr Strange or La La Land
ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Courgette
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
alt. Your Name or Finding Dory
ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vasha
Happy End
The Head Vanishes
Inner Workings
Piper
alt. Pearl or Pear Cider
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life Animated
OJ Made in America
alt. Tower or Weiner
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Extremis
Joe's Violin
The Mute's House
Watani: My Homeland
White Helmets
alt. Frame 394 or 4.1 Miles
LIVE ACTION SHORT
Bon Voyage
Graffiti
Nocturne in Black
Silent Night
Sing
alt. La Femme et le TGV or Domestic Enemies
Reader Comments (47)
I believe that Jackie and Silence will surprise us for good tomorrow.
And Fantastic Beasts in the visual categories + original score.
I DEMAND RALPH FIENNES!!! DEMAND!!! LISTEN TO ME, GOD!
I'm only going to list my predictions for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress:
Adams, Davis, Huppert, Portman, Stone
Harris, Kidman, Monae, Spencer, Williams
Garfield is my big bet to get snubbed tomorrow.
Predicting Hugh Grant to get snubbed while Aaron Taylor-Johnson gets in.
Nicole Kidman for the snub and Jonae for the surprise nod
I have faith in Sing Street getting a nod for best song. I also think Finding Dory is scoring a nod in animated feature. I don't think Kubo's getting a visual effects nod, but I think Weiner might sneak into documentary. I'm not feeling any truly big surprises this year, though.
I hope Weiner makes it in. One of the best docos I've ever seen.
My predictions for next year! Cate to get a nom for 'Manifesto', and 'Call me by your name' to get a best picture nom.
As a side note, I hope Joe Reid updates his 'this had Oscar buzz' tumblr.
I'm not as big on Garfield as everyone else, but you're probably right.
I love Meryl Streep and admire her performance in FFJ, but Benning deserves the nomination more. Will cross my fingers & hope for the best tomorrow.
Thanks for all your efforts Nathaniel (and team TFE) I hope you get at least some of what you wish for.
EZ, I can't imagine a world in which MANIFESTO is even eligible let alone could get her a nomination.
I think Bening is getting nominated. That's my no guts no glory prediction.
It probably won't happen but fingers crossed for 20th Century Women. In my mind it deserves at least eight nominations.
I think Gerwig could be a surprise nomination!
For some reason, I think Arrival will be the one to get fewer noms than predicted. I think Villeneuve and Amy Adams will both miss out (resulting in Bening getting in!).
I keep wondering if Portman could miss out. People aren't wild about the film, Streep and Bening are more beloved in the industry. But maybe I'm just trying to squeeze Bening in however I can...
I agree with Garfield getting snubbed, with Hanks getting in. Bigger surprise will be Taraji getting in over Meryl. Rooting for a Weiner nod
Please do right by Moonlight, Academy. Please oh please oh please...
Taraji to me was the weak link in Hidden Figures. Too self-conscious as an actress, like a TV actor on Empire. Janelle and Octavia are the soul of that movie.
Meryl for her 20th will set off mental rockets of peace.
I am sensing the Adams and Portman deflation.
I hope for many surprises!
I loved Henson in Hidden Figures.
Both David Mackenzie and Garth Davis getting in over Denis Villeneuve and Scorsese/Ford/Gibson
Predictions: Mortensen out, Ryan Reynolds in
Portman out, Henson in
Patel out, Costner in
Kidman out, Monae in
I think Tom Hanks gets in and I think Meryl Streep gets in.
Already warned my coworkers and roommates of the emotional rollercoaster that tomorrow might be. Good luck everyone! If you hear screams of joy if Bening is nominated, look toward Seattle.
Wouldn't it be crazy if Kate got in for The Dressmaker? So you have Streep, Winslet, Blunt, Huppert and Stone. I can't stand Portman and Adams needs to sit out awhile, she ain't no Streep haha.
Absolutely Fabulous the Movie for Best Costume Design!!!
If Silence gets just a lone nomination for Cinematography, it'll be a travesty. The film deserves nominations for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design, Cinematography. Worst of all, if if fails to be nominated for Picture but Deadpool manages to get in -- I may have to stop watching the Academy Awards.
For all the talk of how competitive Lead Actress is, Supporting Actor is the one that has given me a headache trying to puzzle out. To me, it still looks like a total free-for-all; I count 14 guys who are, at the very least, plausible - and I'm not even counting some of the ones you list as dark horses.
You (meaning YOU, Nathaniel) have mentioned this several times previously, but it's an important point that bears repeating: There needs to be some sort of oversight panel to dictate classification, a la the Tony Awards, because the category fraud continues to become more and preposterous, to say nothing of irritating. I liken it to the Electoral College, which purports to abet a Democratic system of elections, but actually leads to unequal representation and unfair results (granted that the fate of modern civilization is not on the line in this case...)
Taking nothing away from JK Simmons, Alicia Vikander or Viola Davis, it's ridiculous to make actors with limited screen time compete against those who are, more or less, the stars of their films - to say nothing of the great supporting actors who WON'T get nominated. Just go back through the records and think about how Harvey Weinstein might have screwed up the campaigns for All About Eve, From Here to Eternity, The Defiant Ones, Midnight Cowboy, Thelma & Louise...hell, Vanessa Redgrave would still not have an Oscar, because lord knows Shirley MacLaine was due by 1977. Just thinking about scenarios like these gives me night sweats...
I have a theory about this, which may or may not hold water - I'd love some input. Do you think the end of the studio system and the rise of free-agency was the real game-changer as far as this goes? Actors under contract to studios had no say in terms of how their performances were campaigned - hell, most of them had no actual say in terms of what films they appeared in or what roles they played to begin with - you did what Zanuck or Mayer told you to do, or you were out the door. Is it possible that, in the modern era, the agents and the stars themselves have the ultimate say? I.E. "Cate doesn't sign on the dotted line if she's going to be in a vote-splitting situation with whoever plays Therese." "Phil thinks he has a better shot in Supporting, and doesn't want to have to compete with Joaquin." "I am Kevin Huvane, you motherfucker, and you don't decide which category to campaign Julianne in until I fucking TELL you where to put her, or I burn down your goddamn house and you never work with Meryl again (he's probably a very nice man, but I take poetic license for dramatic effect :-))" Does this sort of horse-trading go on even before actors have actually committed to projects? Or am just thinking in overly conspiratorial terms?
Category fraud lessen the transient nominees in the supporting categories. What's annoying are transient nominees in the lead category. Especially those that win (Best Actor, 2011).
I'm also sticking with Annette Bening in the Best Actress line up.
My no guts no glory prediction: Amy Adams out. I know, crazy.
It seems decisions about Oscar placement are made once people know how the race is looking, so very late in the game. Ego meets reality. Julia Roberts initially wanted to go lead for August: Osage County, and we know how that story ended. Viola is going supporting to ensure she wins. It's very political with press agents, market research, etc. Maybe it's always been that way, even before MBAs took over production. Good luck.
I would really feel bad if Huppert gets left out in the Oscar nomination. But I fear that THAT is a real possibility. Notice how coded some of the news items about her wins: "Huppert's surprise win in..." After winning a slew of critics' awards and a Golden Globe, she is always an outsider looking in despite her pedigree.
I think the subject matter of Elle and the fact that it is subtitled may work against Huppert's nomination.
Wouldn't it be a great curveball if the Best Actress lineup goes this way:
Annette Bening, Emily Blunt, Viola Davis, Isabelle Huppert, Ruth Negga
(It won't happen for sure but by taking Adams, Portman, Stone and Streep out of the equation, it changes the dynamics of the lineup. Maybe Viola can win this one).
I'm thinking Amy Adams could be more vulnerable than people think. It's a performance everyone likes, but does anyone LOVE it? I could see it being just kind of taken for granted. Hell, I could maybe even see her getting in for Nocturnal Animals instead.
This is a comments thread chock full of crazy talk (including my earlier comment).
And I love it.
But fuhgeddaboudit, people. Portman is in, and if Andrew Garfield gets snubbed for Hacksaw Ridge, it'll be to let in Andrew Garfield for Silence...
Leave Taraji (who's not getting nominated) alone!
This can't be that easy, right? Not this year? I'm expecting something in one of the lead categories that hardly anyone sees coming. Reynolds? idek
@ Glenn, the reworked Manifesto premiered at Sundance today! Probably needs to jump through a few hoops to qualify, but wouldn't that be something :)
I'm counting on Deadpool faring way more than expected (Adapted, Film Editing) and have a NGNG it'll be Reynolds over Gosling and sneaking in as picture. Also, that Sausage Party stands so much apart of the rest, that can sneak at Song and Animated, Original Screenplay if they feel edgy enough. I also have Nocturnal Animals for Best Picture and dropped Hell or High Water and Fences all together, having Hidden Figures only in, if we have 8.
My no guts, no glory prediction would be that Loving's Ruth Negga and Joel Edgerton get nominated. Who to bump, I don't know.
I feel like there's gonna be a surprise in Director that no one can see coming. Maybe Denzel???
I'm wondering whether the fifth supporting actor slot could go to Sarsgaard. Remember when Maggie got that surprise nom for that movie she was in (I forget the name, which is bad considering it won two Oscars!)? Respected but never-nominated actor pulled along by a lead performance. I think that category is going to throw us something we don't quite expect.
And I still have a weird hunch about LOVING. I don't know why.
I repeat: don't understimate Shannon as a surprise nominee
NGNG:
1. Barry Jenkins snubbed.
2. "The Lobster" in more than one category.
3. Davis in lead.
I'm a bit early now but fuck it. Pretty exciting to see how these turn out this morning!
My big snub prediction is actually Natalie Portman. People just didn't like the film and I can't see her hanging on in such a competitive Best Actress year. I mean, Bening and Huppert (I hope!) will get #1 votes but Portman? I don't think there's enough love for the movie. Toss in Stone, Adams, Streep, maybe Davis upgrade, love for Negga, etc. and you've got a mix for a 'shocking' snub for a movie people apparently weren't that wild about.
I think we might see some semi-surprising inclusions elsewhere (like Supp Actor and Director) and maybe a swap-out for other cast members like Spencer/Monáe or Bridges/whoever or ATJ/Shannon but I don't expect too many huge shocks. Watch them go for Silence in a big way LOL..
I don't think the combo of Hedges and Patel will happen, they are SO severely allergic to men under 30 in the two male acting categories, I'll be shocked if they both get in. Patel maybe, but not both.
I've already made my peace with the fact that La La Land can potentially walk away with 12-14 nods and tho that's completely NUTS... I won't be surprised.
I'll be REALLY curious to see who they go for in the Screenplay categories. There could be some fun pop-ups, like The Lobster and 20th Century Women.
Always rooting for the awesome outlier nods like The Handmaiden in Production Design, Kubo in Visual Effect, OJ in Editing. Those are always fun.
Expect Doc Feature to be weird. Three films covering similar ground, one from Netflix? Idk. Cameraperson and Weiner had the acclaim but they don't usually go for freeform narratives ever or singular exposé anymore.
If Fantastic Beasts and Rogue One don't clog up tech nods that would be great, kthksbye.
this comment thread makes me feel less crazy about what my brain is doing right now so i thank you all :)
Lol conspiracy theories abound~~
I don't think they'll be as messy this year.
I'm predicting Monae instead of Kidman; Rhodes instead of Hedges and Henson instead of Portman.
Watch me be wrong, everyone!!!
It's stupid to complain about category fraud for Grant, right? He owns FFJ, and actually has more screen time than Streep.
Oh, how I wish there was a nomination in store for Gerwig.
It's never stupid to complain about category fraud since it's always bullshit.
I still haven't gotten over last year's Supp Actress mess ugh.
My two NGNG are Sunny Pawar and Peter Sarsgaard because, I dunno.
http://oscar.go.com/news/nominations/oscar-nominations-2017-view-the-complete-list-of-nominees
This page is all screwed up. It shows Tom Hanks as 6th nominee for best actor among many other errors. What is going on?