Which actresses are we underestimating in the nomination hunt?
Monday, November 27, 2017 at 10:45AM by Nathaniel R
Are we underestimating them: Winslet, Bening, Chastain, Haddish, Vega, Dench, Williams, Stone, Chau, Blige, Scott Thomas, Gadot
If you look around the web you'd suspect we are closer to Oscar nominations than we actually are. Two months remain before we have our Oscar nominations (57 days to be exact) so there's a month of campaigning left before the Academy even starts filling out their nomination ballots! Despite the plentiful time remaining and few precursors yet announcing (NBR is first tomorrow), the internet seems convinced that we're narrowed down to about 6 or 7 players for 5 slots in virtually all the acting categories. But is it this cut and dry?
It's likely not.
We know the general field at this point but there's still a lot of wiggle room, some films/people are always underestimated and the reverse at this point. But even if none of the 12 women we've including in the image above end up with a difficult to snag Oscar nomination, I'm curious if any of them will be cited anywhere this season from precursors to the Globes to SAG to regional critics groups. What do you suspect?
RELATED: Updated charts for Best Actress and Supporting Actress. Thoughts?
Reader Comments (98)
Early word is that Streep is amazing and delivers a “towering performance “ in The Post. And this early buzz feels different than most form this decade. I think with The Post’s subject matters being so relevant to the times we live in, she may be a threat to win her 4th this year more than most realize.
NATHANIEL R - lol, i could definitely sense your love and fear for Lady Bird when i saw at gurus o' gold that one of your "make-a-wish" dream nominations was LB getting in for a BP nom. Cause obviously most would see that and be like "...dude, really?".
Jamie & Marie -i've seen the Post and a win would shock me. She's good in it for sure but it's a very passive character and it often feels like she's disappearing from the narrative. The thing that will secure her a nomination (should she get one) is the entire climax rests on her face which kinda makes up for the long stretches when you don't see her. But overall I think it will be the least screen time of any of the leading ladies nominated.
Every time I see the 'Is Octavia Spencer the Thelma Ritter of her generation?' blurb I saltily answer 'No, cuz she actually got a trophy!'
I hope the precursors spread the wealth, cuz this is looking like quite the competitive year and I love when it is unpredictable.
Polivamp -- me too. especially in the supporting categories its unfortunate when there is consensus because the bulk of roles in movies are supporting so there should be more varied opinions than there actually are if you ask me.
We’ll see. I was shocked when Hepburn won her fourth for On Golden Pond. 😀
Nathaniel- in all honesty, this whole awards season I was simply hoping for a Streep 21st nomination.
I know you cannot say much about her performance in The Post with the embargo but a couple quick questions:
Do you feel this likely nomination for Streep would be warranted? Is it a great performance? Did you like it better than her other nominations this decade? Do you think the overall success of the film will help her ( hopefully BP nomination)?
You had her at number 6 or lower when this awards season began so obviously something has shifted on this site with Streep and the 21st nomination?
I'll join the chorus of voices saying you're underestimating Ronan's chances. I wasn't bowled over by either her or the film but the tidal wave of approval and popularity seems likely to sweep her into a top contender spot. I'd say she and McDormand are the real locks. Leaving Hawkins, Streep, Dench and Robbie to fight over the other three slots. My hunch is that Robbie's the one who'll come up empty-handed. Forget about Bening and Winslet. It's not going to happen. And Emma Stone's film just didn't catch on
As far as supporting goes, Janney's the front-runner. Metcalf's a lock too. Julia Roberts is coming on strong - and may be shaping up as Janney's biggest competition for the win. My gut tells me Mary J.Blige and Hong Chau will take the two remaining spots.
Saw "Novitiate" the other day and Melissa Leo's sensational in it . Outside of her - the movie's no great shakes and it seems to be making little impression box-office wise. But I still wish Leo could get some Oscar traction for the performance. She made me think of Geraldine Page working at full throttle. Which - to my mind - is high octane praise.
I hear Hayek is campaigning hard, and she might have an easier road ahead of her due to the political year we've had and the fact that her movie speaks the most to what we hate about Trump and everything that's wrong with his presidency.
I am intrigued that Streep is more passive in The Post because most of the stuff levelled at her on here and around the web is that her many nominations this past 10 years have been for OTT not subtle work,so what i'm saying is that Streep is going a different route and is surprising us with a quiet performance in a Drama which I haven't seen her do since the 90's.
Could Hawkins split votes with herself and finish sixth?
PFEIFFER WILL BE NOMINATED THIS YEAR IT'S HER COMEBACK YEAR :)
I'm so glad Meryl role in The Post is very passive for once so no one can say she is over the top and even that I'm not hearing any one in the movie, not even Tom, steal a scene from her, so she must be really great in the movie, considering so many supporting players she has to act with. If this very passive role can get her nominated and in the third spot no less, I'm all for it. I'm sure the movie will be a hit when go wild around the nominations which will help her chance of winning.
I think Frances and Ronan are in since their movies are box office hits. As for Margot and Sally, it depends on the performance of the movies. Of the two, Sally might be the one who got left out cause I'm not sure The Shape of Water will be a hit but we'll see.
I think everyone is forgetting that this is a much different academy than it was even two years ago, and we are living in such extraordinary times, especially Hollywood. Instead of reverting to safe territory, I do think we will see some more adventurous choices, like maybe Tiffany Haddish? I also think Dench is out.
Jessica Chastain feels very overdue for another nomination. If Molly's Game turns out to be good, it would be great to see her get in. I adore Judi, but I hope she doesn't take this coveted fifth spot.
I'd like to hope you're underestimating Kate Winslet. But like Feminist so venomously put, it appears people believe Kate should pay the price for Allen's alleged sins while Allen himself doesn't give two shits if people like his movies or not, if they win awards or not. He's already finishing his next one and planning the one after that. If she doesn't pick up buzz soon, I hope she sweeps in for a deserved nomination the way Laura Linney did back in 08.
Online media has already made I,Tonya and Robbie’s ‘transformation’ a thing. Plus, she’s the It girl. Regardless of quality of her actual performance, she’s in.
I saw The Shape of Water and Hawkins’ star turn is something to behold. I racalled thinking ‘how could she not win for this?’. It’s like a performance for silence musical (if that makes sense). Offbeat but still glamourous. She’s at fifth, nomination power ranking-wise, but a threat to win if nominated.
People loves Lady Bird. I can see Ronan winning this.
Thanks to massive boxoffice, I think Julia’s in. Wonder’s chance also increases in Screenplay and Picture as Crowdpleaser Contender.
Blige’s role is such...nothing comparing to the hype. Mulligan and Mitchell is the MVP of Mudbound.
I have said this before and I will say it again: much like last year there will only be a handful of votes separating fourth place through eighth place. I guess we'll never know but it feels that competitive.
Jamie -- the change was that i saw the movie. For the first half I thought "i'm totally right. she's not going to be nominated" (also i thought the film was stiff and dull for its first hour) but she absolutely slays the climax of the film (for my mind the film has some "dull" problems for the first half) and it's hard not to get swept up in the final act which is way better than the rest of the movie
Gotcha. Thanks Nathaniel!
I agreed tt Ronan wld be in & in top 3 no less.
I kno Bening's chance is diminishing but Film Stars is getting pretty good reviews at the UK right now, esp her n Bell's performances. I tink we maybe underestimating her chances. If it proves to be a hit in late Dec, she still got a v good chance + she has the overdue narrative n many pple still rem her recent snub for 20thCW.
My predictions as at now :
McDormand
Ronan
Hawkins
Robbie
Bening
Yes, i'm gonna take a wild card n predict tt Streep will finish 6th. The Post feels more like an ensemble pc n If her part is the least o all the other actresses, I said let's take a break from her. Unless of cos, she's gonna On Golden Pond us.
I know it's late, but I just realized that after two years of fraudulent winner, my fave category, best supporting actress, doesn't seem to be in any danger of nominating a lead actress!
I've watched all of these performances so far - McDormand, Ronan and Dench.
And I think Ronan deserves a nom much more than McDormand who seems to be
rehashing some of her past screen/TV personas. As for Dench, I left the cinema thinking she SHOULD NOT be nominated at all - the performance was predictable, least to say, carried no elements of surprise or awe. Having also seen Bening in her movie, I seriously doubt she will end up in the top 7th or 8th, unlike her captivating turn in 20th Century Women. I would dare predict Ronan may have a chance to win if she does get nominated. A simply delightful and charismatic performance!
Nathaniel - I'm really waiting for your full review of The Post. All I'm thinking right now is even very passive role and less screen time she still in the top three spots from many critics. If the movie is a big hit, how can it not, wouldn't she soar higher? And The Post will still be in theaters everywhere all through this coming Jan-Feb during the nomination and the voting, so I think she has a chance to be a winner.
But really, I will be happy if any of these ladies...Ronan, Frances, Sally, Margot or Jessica win. They all deserve it. This is such a great year for actresses considering Judi, Annette, Emma, Diane, Vicky Krieps, even Salma might occupy number 6 to 10 spot.
The only unfortunate one is Kate which is really nothing she can do about it.
Manville was the best part of Phantom Thread. She more than deservedly deserves a BSA nomination.
Mike -- Manville is such a great actor. that doesn't surprise me to hear but i haven't seen the movie yet
I don't understand this hype about Chau, when she doesn't even appear in the trailers for "Downsizing".
I would like a break from Streep in the Race.
And I think it will be really exciting to watch Janney and Metcalf battle out well-deserved nominations.
"Wonder" will be having a "Wonder"ful GG morning.
I just want every year to be 2007, with everyone running around like chickens with their heads cut off because awards season got us like
Oscar: Tilda Swinton
Globe: Cate Blanchett
SAG: Ruby Dee
BFCA: Amy Ryan
Jans : I agree with you about McDormand. She was fine but rather one note. No arc at all. Rockwell and Harrelson stole the show. I am also predicting Ronan to win.
Winslet will surely get a Golden Globe nod, no? And BAFTA doesn't seem far off. Are people not predicting her because of Woody Allen or because they weren't fans of the film (or both)? Because even reviews that have been negative or so-so have unreservedly praised her.
"This is asking me to punish a woman because of the alleged crimes of a man who was never charged. Nope!" - NATHANIEL ROGERS
This is quite disgusting Nathaniel.
You live in fucking AMERICA, you honestly think the justice system there knows what the fuck it's doing and doesn't protect powerful movie star white men? You are seriously fucked.
I have been reading your blog since I was a 17 year old Actresssexual in the making. I have loved the film experience and visited it daily for a decade.
I'm very disappointed in you, and I'm sure you're mother would be too.
I wonder what Katey, Lynn, Deborah, and Anne Marie think about your deplorable comments. (You have so few women on your "team" it's disturbing.)
You're attitude and opinions about this kind of thing needs to CHANGE A.S.A.P
DO NOT GIVE ME SHIT THAT ALL THE OTHER PUNDITS ARE PREDICTING HER.
HERE IS SASHA STONE's LIST FROM AWARDS DAILY -
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Margot Robbie, I Tonya
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
Meryl Streep, The Post
Soairse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Cynthia Nixon, A Quiet Passion
Rosamund Pike, Hostiles
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die
Nicole Kidman, The Beguiled
Florence Pugh, Lady Macbeth
Salma Hayek, Beatriz at Dinner
16 ACTRESSES ----- DO YOU SEE KATE WINSLET ANYWHERE??????
MAKE A CHANGE NATHANIEL. Have whatever women you have in your life educate you. YOU HAVE SO MUCH TO LEARN
Another random person telling Nat The Host how to think and feel.It'll be interesting visiting here if this carries on.Bad Language is offensive to some @Feminist so why don't you clean your mouth out before you post.
LMFAO
@feminist You're trying waaay too hard dear. Nobody's buying your fake ass performance, learn better trolling and go seek help.
Although she seemed to ruin herself with the entire Harvey 'I knew nothing about this' Weinstein scandal, I do have to cut Meryl Streep a break here. For the people who've had enough of her getting nominated and hoping that she doesn't for 'The Post.' - if she's great in it, she deserves to get nominated. That's what makes a champ. Same with Judi Dench in 'V and A.' Thought this was why actors were selected for their 'acting.' It's the quality of the work, Casey Affleck/Manchester, that should be the final deciding vote. Soon it'll be more expunging of 'old' Academy voters enraged that Meryl got selected over Halle Berry's brilliance in 'Kidnap.' Guess we're already on a slippery slope when actors are nominated for 'other' reasons...
Nathaniel, I hope isolated comments like the abusive one above don't distract you from the fact that the vast majority of your readership (even the avowed Nicole-Kidman-agnostics) totally loves every bit of this site and wouldn't remotely think to question your ethics or feminism.
Lots of love,
A TFE-Reading Actressexual Who's Been an Avid Fan Since Age 14, So There!
Nathaniel, I hope isolated comments like the abusive one above don't distract you from the fact that the vast majority of your readership (even the avowed Nicole-Kidman-agnostics) totally loves every bit of this site and wouldn't remotely think to question your ethics or feminism.
Lots of love,
A TFE-Reading Actressexual Who's Been an Avid Fan Since Age 14, So There!
Reading all of the reactions from The Post and it sounds like Streep is winning over even those critics that were experiencing the “Streep-fatigue”. I don’t think I saw this initial praise and nomination talk for Florence Foster Jenkins from the critics? And Academy voters already love her. Seems like a shoo in for Best Actress at the Golden Globes, especially with a movie about the press and her delivery of that amazing speech last year.
Think it also a good sign that she continually seems to surprise audiences with how good she is after 40 years of filmmaking.
Jamie -- i'd be a lot more okay with the wonder that is Streep if they didn't nominate her every time. Literally no one is one of the five best every single time they do something. My biggest problem with it is that it makes it less enjoyable to celebrate her when she deserves it. I do think she's better in The Post than any of her recent nominations -- primarily because it's a really low key performance for her and I just really enjoyed watching her do very little but still be riveting-- but even in years when it looks like she might be passed over (Florence Foster Jenkins for example) something occurs that puts her back in. She's one of my all time favorite actresses and the Academy's constant need to nominate her is what makes it seem like i dont love her because i just find it so exhausting.
Feminist -- i will agree with you on one thing: I have too few women writing for the site. It's something I'm working on. I love the great women that do write for the site but unfortunately none of them are available on a regular basis. but I'm happy to report that Anne-Marie will be back in January with a new weekly series.
Goran - thank you.
Alex -- wasn't that year fabulous? The Best Picture lineup was great, too.
Lots of love for Nathaniel too.
I'm so glad Meryl role in The Post is very passive for once so no one can say she is over the top and even that I'm not hearing any one in the movie, not even Tom, steal a scene from her, so she must be really great in the movie, considering so many supporting players she has to act with.
She's at best predictable in THE POST and at worst mannered and unbelievable, which means she'll get a nomination. THE POST is a serious comedown for Spielberg after a pretty good decade + – phony and obvious in the ways that Oscar loves.
Alfred - That's okay, you are entitled to your opinion.
Only if they really would nominate Meryl Streep evrytime! It would mean she would have been Oscar nominated for Death becomes her! :cries:
Hmmm, I don't know about Supporting Actress. After Metcalf and Janney it feels wide open. I could see your other 3 not getting in and anyone from tier 2 getting in instead, or maybe a complete, Jackie Weaver/"SLP"-esque surprise.
Quit it with the Weinstein thing already, there is absolutely no proof of anything and Meryl isn't the insider that some are portraying her as. Everyone knows she is genuinely disgusted by it all and always has and will stand by all women.
Anywho, it seems to be unanimous that Meryl has made a triumphant return and hopefully done enough to get #4.
sonja -- haha good point
Anywho, it seems to be unanimous that Meryl has made a triumphant return and hopefully done enough to get #4.
Well, the film hasn't opened yet and screened only last night for critics. No way to know about unanimity.
@Nathaniel
I have only been reading this blogsite for a short time… but you seem to be totally fair-minded in your contributions ( maybe a little over the top about Kidman ) … but then we all have our fans.
There is only one blogger who generally offends, but I can deal with that!
Please keep up the great work and do NOT worry about foul mouthed trollers.
favs not fans