Does Woody Harrelson spell trouble for Willem Dafoe?
Thursday, December 14, 2017 at 8:00AM by Nathaniel R
A police chief and a hotel manager, both overwhelmed and sympathetic and arguably the moral center of their movies.
It's been a long time since we had a double-nomination situation in Best Supporting Actor. The last time it happened was 26 years ago when Ben Kingsley and Harvey Keitel were nominated together for Bugsy (1991) - a curious event since Keitel was so much stronger in another Oscar nominated classic from that year. Given the rise of Woody Harrelson with that Screen Actor's Guild nomination and the overall assumed strength of Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri in the Best Picture race, it could well happen again. His co-star Sam Rockwell, already felt locked and loaded for the same movie in a (somewhat) larger part.
But does this spell trouble for Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project? Consensus was beginning to form that Dafoe, who became famous in the mid 80s and has worked ever since, would easily walk away with the Oscar this year...
Willem Dafoe's first nomination came for Platoon (1986) which won Best Picture
The notion was that the statue would be for both this performance and that long career with two past Oscar nominations and several indelible performances behind him. But can't the same exact argument (all the same bullet points...even the mid 80s and the nomination count!) be made for Harrelson?
The Film Experience has never believed that double nominations from one film get in the way of an acting win. That's the common wisdom behind excusing/promoting Category Fraud (shoving one co-lead into supporting so they aren't competing with the other one) but history doesn't really support that notion. Plenty of actors have won the Oscar while up against a co-star in the same category: F Murray Abraham, Shirley Maclaine, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Robert DeNiro...). Some like to cite Bette Davis's famous Best Actress loss for All About Eve and blame it on Anne Baxter, her rival both within the film and on Oscar night, as evidence that double nominations split your support but the 1950 Best Actress competition had so many incredible factors at work (including 3 other sensational performances) that that seems a gross simplification.
Woody Harrelson's first nomination came from 1996's "The People vs Larry Flynt"
Ultimately, do you think Woody Harrelson will be nominated? If so is he trouble for Dafoe in terms of the win or are we all underestimating the possibility of a surprise statue grab from two other respected longtime industry favorites: Richard Jenkins or Sam Rockwell. SEE THE UPDATED CHART.
Reader Comments (51)
Pls everyone that has seen Three Billboards refrain from any sort of spoilers during this thread :-)
I feel Dafoe is still leading the pack. I don't think Harrelson will hurt him as much as Rockwell, since 3 Billboard enthusiasts will split their loyalties. But anyone could win this depending on how the industry awards shake out. An atypically great year for this category, which usually defaults to beloved veterans on cruise control. Rockwell is my personal pick, but Dafoe winning wouldn't make me mad.
David-bless you, and let’s add CMBYN to that list as well.
As for the race. I think Dafoe (probably) winning the Globe will help immensely. Lately it seems like streaks are difficult to stop, so unless they do something wild like give it to Armie Hammer, I suspect this becomes a Dafoe stampede.
Swap with Stuhlbarg with Hammer and you have my prediction
Short answer: No. Long answer: Most of the potential nominees could be consider overdue for the statue, yet Dafoe is the one who grabbed most of the recognition and every season there's at least one performer that gets a push from the critics and this year it seems to be him.
So many longstanding Hollywood names keep floating around this category -- which makes me think Hammer will be snubbed in the end, as you are currently predicting.
Not sure what to make of Dafoe. Guess it'll depend on whether he wins the televised awards.
I tink if Harrelson get nom, it might actually work in Dafoe's favor instead, considering that Harrelson might split the votes goin to his co-star, Rockwell who IS Dafoe's biggest threat!
Carrell is oso ano beloved industry veteran n I won't b surprised tt he might cat fraud his way to a nom at the Oscar.
At this juncture, Hammer has a better shot at the nom than Stuhlbarg, who din recv any love fr the critics groups, GG or SAG.
Dafoe, Rockwell are locks, Jenkins seems quite secure. The last 2 spots will be a tough battle between Hammer, Carrell, Harrelson, Stuhlbarg n Plummer.
Any chance we get two double nominations? Couldn’t the final lineup be Dafoe, Rockwell, Harrelson, Hammer, and Staulberg? Or is that impossible?
I have a feeling Jenkins is the snub no one sees coming. I like the idea of Dafoe plus double nominees from TBOEM and CMBYN. That would be my ideal (though I admittedly have not seen any nominee)
I've been vocal about my disliking of Billboards here. If anyone deserves to be called the moral heart of the movie (no spoilers here!) it's Harrelson. However, I would be very mad if this is at the expense of the better film: CBYN, and Michael Stuhlbarg; whom I think it's the one in jeopardy here, not Dafoe. I want both to be regognized.
On the other hand, Clayton Davis has been saying members of the SAG didn't receive their screeners of both The Post and Phantom Thread. So, if this is true, I think we're reading in too much, too soon. I think the Oscars are entirely another game. Especially with the new breed inducted in the last few years.
I've been saying, also, that it seems a Battle Royale between Lady Bird and Get Out. I stick to my guns. Billboards will be liked by a lot of actors, but come the final tally the other branches will have a say otherwise because, you know, Billboards it's an actor's movie first and foremost and not much else. And was divisive with critics and I will be
with elder members and other branches. It's too harsh and earns ambivalent sympathy in between the laughs. Speaking of which, to my eyes, the film's script has its strings and all are all too visible and gruesome. There are more nuanced, sympathetic and better films in competition which ALSO speak about the zeitgeist and are liked across intersectional viewers. Like Get Out and Lady Bird, for instance.
I see a lot of noms for it. But I have doubts it will win even in Original Screenplay. We'll see it with the writer's Guild.
I don't get why Michael Shannon isn't in the mix for The Shape of Water.
Sure, his character was evil, but that character drove the story. I can see why Richard Jenkins is getting the recognition-but both of those males were better than Woody H.
I hoping that Shannon will pop out of nowhere like he did last year for Nocturnal Animals.
My hunch is the line-up ends up being Dafoe, Harrelson, Jenkins, Rockwell and Shannon which, given the vote-splitting galore, seems to me an ideal scenario for Dafoe.
@Ben - Yes! That was totally my thought after SAG. Two double nominations in this category feels. I don't know about likely, but there's a nice symmetry to it. I don't think anyone can stop Dafoe.
Before seeing Three Billboards, I was pro all kinds of nominations for it.
After seeing Three Billboards, I can only agree with one nomination for Frances McDormand.
IMO, the moral centre of the film was Clarke Peters. Woody as police chief allowed a police force that was racist, violent, and inefficient.
I hated Billboards.
I wonder if Florida Project isn't a best picture nominee, if that'll mean the win could go to someone else. The Oscars spread the wealth in recent years and often to best pic nominees. One of the BILLBOARDS actors could win if Frances and the screenplay aren't. Perhaps if Lady Bird/Get Out will win there. I think BILLBOARDS will have to win something. It might be too divisive to win picture.
I want Armie and Michael Stuhlbarg. Would be so sad if one of them weren't in there. Ideally both.
I really like Dafoe and want him to win, even though I haven't seen TFP or 3B yet. I once sold him tickets when I worked in a NYC off Broadway playhouse of note and he was charming and humble and just nice to deal with. And he's a terrific actor too. What's not to award?
That said, I love Sam Rockwell too, and Woody H is a-ok w/ me as well. Looks like the Best Supporting Actor category will be a good one this year.
Verisimilitude. Pretty much how it's been proven to be across this country. #ijs
Of course, anything can happen. But I fully agree with Claran. If Harrelson spells trouble for anyone as far as winning the Oscar goes, it is for Rockwell! So far Rockwell was a comfortable runner-up. But now here comes his co-star Harrelson. Not all the votes that Harrelson would receive for the Award would have the same rationale -and, yes, many would vote for him on his own laurels and merit- but another part of his vote base will be made up of Billboards fans. And there's where he may take quite a few of the votes that would have otherwise gone to Rockwell.
Exactly the same would happen to Chalamet -a real threat to front-runner Oldman- if suddenly Hammer was also nominated for Best Actor.
In other words, the problem here is that a second nominees shows up representing the same film for which the runner up will be competing.
Nope. Harrelson in there is the best thing for Dafoe. Split those votes with Rockwell, and then go get ur Oscar u beautiful weirdo!
I still think Dafoe wins. It's starting to look like he might be the lone winner from Florida Project, which would make some sense given he's the one "name" in the film. I could see him winning as a representation of a film the Academy would want to honor, but couldn't find any other place to do it. Plus, he's got a large part for a "Supporting" role, and he's great in it. And generally loved and respected. I think he cruises to a win.
Agree with chofer about Three Billboards. My main problem with it is that it seems translated from Irish and British. It’s about 4 or 5 times more profane than small-town folks in Missouri would be. Spoilerish: I rolled my eyes when Lucas Hedges called his mother the c-word. And though I admire Abbie Cornish, I didn’t get why an Englishwoman was plunked down in the middle of little ol’ Ebbing. Her accent was a constant reminder of the director-writer’s own foreignness.
I agree with your five. I think Michael Stuhlbarg will Michael Shannon his way into the nominations.
*—Cornish, of course, is Australian.
My No Guts No Glory: Lucas Hedges for LADYBIRD.
Adri. That maybe an issue with the script but not the performing
I'm ecstatic Woody is in the conversation. He's terrific in the 3B. And he's been on a roll the last two years--The Edge of Seventeen, War For the Planet of the Apes, and great in lesser films--Glass Castle, Wilson, LBJ.
Out of these likely-to-be-nominated perennial supporting players, Jenkins is the one who I think is on the bubble, even more so than Stuhlbarg who I'm sure have #1 support. I wish Jenkins make it in. It's such a lovely performance. I'm quite sureprise to see Dafoe steamrolling with precursors since this year's field is richer than usual.
I wouldn't rule out a BAFTA nomination for Mark Rylance in DUNKIRK. The film was loved over here and Rylance was the standout performer in it. Plus, BAFTA giving him the win for BRIDGE OF SPIES was what I perceive to be what turned the tide in his favour for the Oscar
(altho that being said, BAFTA don't like no-shows, so hmmm.)
I disagree that vote splitting doesn't happen. I agree with the notion that it's overestimated sometimes, but having your co-star doesn't help you out. It definitely must take away some votes. Winners often happen when consensus builds around one as well (MacLaine was the bigger veteran star, so was Leo with the flashier role, Zeta-Jones was almost a co-lead, etc). When it seems the playing field it's more levelled it rarely leads to wins (Babel, Thelma & Louise, Doubt, etc).
Harrelson joining in would likely spell trouble for Rockwell, who's the one trying to catch up to Dafoe. I think he can join the nominations but certainly not win. Rockwell shares a lot of the buzz and is leading the conversation. And he was mostly absent until SAG spoke up. By the time SAG comes, Dafoe could've already picked up 2 televised trophies building momentum and SAG also looooved veterans which Dafoe is.
I'd like to point out Three Billboards doing exceedingly well makes sense for SAG. Release and peaking when SAG voted, plenty of familiar faces, among those Harrelson.
All this to say, for me he's fighting for one of the last 2 spots in the category. Definitely not winning. That ship has sailed, and if he joins, he prevents any shot of Rockwell from spoiling Dafoe (which he still could). Rockwell benefits from being in a very popular movie, a possible BP contender but in a category where none of its biggest competition show up (Lady Bird, Dunkirk, Get Out, Post). If Florida fails to connect with voters, I'd watch out for this to become Three Billboards' consolation prize.
adri: Well, he is the moral centre of The Wire. And Red Hook Summer. And the first season of Jessica Jones, frankly.
Owen Walter: Really? Casual c-bomb? From a southern American? I'm gonna be...squirming... with how wrong some of this dialogue is, aren't I?
This is so tough. Haven't yet seen CMBYN, but Dafoe, Rockwell, Harrelson and Jenkins were all fantastic, so how do you fit in Hammer and Stuhlbarg (and Hedges, but I get that he's not really in this conversation)?
Shannon has a chance if Shape of Water has huge support, but as talented as he is, that's not exactly a three-dimensional role or performance. He was pretty much just straight-up villain, plus he borders on lead (which can hurt your help your chances in Supporting, depending).
Didn't SAG like 3B because it's full of hammy acting, including the awful Deer Hunter bandana wearing woman who throws verbal and literal bombs and is mean to her kid? It's such a mean and vile movie, gussied up as a "comedy." Divisive is a good word for it.
Marie
Agree. Pointing out "vile" just because... southern Americans behave that way?. I'm not American but I'm not buying the movie either. I believe in the "power of fiction" when it's applied with care and balance (may I say some warmth, too?) to all its protagonists which IS SO NOT the case with Billboards.
I think McDonut think he's smarter than he is. I think the film think of itself that way and some people may have buy that notion. I think he speaks for all of his characters, which for me it's the test of an egomaniac who doesn't really care truly for none of them. I believe he's just prejudiced and ignorant and not remotely THAT funny. I feel depressed to even talk about how many nominations Billboards will have. And I love their actors. But just in another films. Even McDormand's.
BTW, it's horribly shot. Like McDonut was on a mission to shot the people and their place even uglier than already is. Not even Steve McQueen dared to be that abjective with 12 Years a Slave. And Lars von Trier's Dogville succeeded because he went full theatrical in its representation of the Smalltown misanthropies, erasing any doubt that the film was a moral fable just set in Deppression-Era America that speak to foreign people, too (He even used the late John Hurt as the fable's narrator)
McDonut is not that bold and/or creative. And twice as clueless as the aforementioned about filming foreigners' miseries. I find appalling he's in the conversatioin for director whereas Gadagnino, Peele, Gerwig or (wtf?) Paul Thomas Anderson or even Spielberg could be in jeopardy!
I wish a DGA corrective pronto! I hope they see what many of us see about the film.
I hope I won't need to talk about this film ever again.
chofer -- oh you're in for some bad news! even if McDonagh misses in director the film will get other nominations. There is a 0% change that it's stiffed in all categories. You won't be free of it until March! :)
I think that Harrelson is very deserving of a nomination; he turns in really solid, grounding work in an (intentionally) chaotic film. But when stacked against his own co-star, it's Rockwell who has not only significantly more screen time but also a a much more substantial emotional journey and character arc.
It's still Dafoe vs. Rockwell in my eyes with Dafoe out front.
Nat
I know. Anything but McDonut for me! :))
This is the anti-Paterson. I looove Paterson:))
Having another actor from the same film nominated didn't hurt Leo or Spencer and those are very recent examples.
@Andrew Carden
I'm echoing your line-up. Shannon does well with minimal precursor support. When he's in a possible best picture heavyweight? Meanwhile, SPC always underperforms come oscars and that'll happen with CMBYN, alas.
Arkaan -- i wouldn't say always with SPC. They totally overperformed with Foxcatcher on its nomination day (with the actor & director spots not especially locked up and shocking, respectively)
Double nomination should and must come from CALL ME BY YOUR NAME with STUHLBARG (my preferred one) and HAMMER.
Dafoe is still winning though.
But why on earth this category recently has become more and more about awarding overdue actors?!
But why on earth this category recently has become more and more about awarding overdue actors?!
Supporting Actor being a gold watch category isn't a recent phenomenon.
@Nathaniel R
That's a good counter example. But I'm still worried. SPC were late with screeners (using Ken Rudolph's website), it's doing a stupidly slow roll-out (only nine screens last weekend) and consequently isn't getting any buzz from how well it's doing. Compare that to Lady Bird, which is doing very strongly and is actually getting a real release (I love that A24 does actually release movies in theatres).
Also, I'm annoyed because a movie website that I use to tell me what's playing in my city said Call Me By Your Name was playing and I went to the theatre and it was actually Your Name (LA winner for animation) so I haven't seen it yet.
I haven't seen "3 Billboards" yet, but this former Missourian is still annoyed they couldn't bother to actually FILM a movie set in Missouri in Missouri. It was filmed around Asheville, North Carolina, per IMDB.
We do have the Ozark Mountains, and the Lake of the Ozarks. Google it. It's pretty, and rural, and heartland, and worthy of motion picture time.
forever, I'm also from Missouri, and my grandparents lived in the Ozarks, and it's truly breathtaking.
Arkaan- "Your Name" is also great! Win-win situation.
Spoiler Alert: 3 billboards is NOT a good movie.
Arkaan - listen to Raul
Forever, I think North Carolina has long had tax-friendly policies amenable to the film industry; several TV shows have been filmed there as well. The decision to film there was likely an economic one.
Reminds me of how the screenplay of Gran Torino was set in Minnesota, and they cast the Hmong actors here, and then they switched everything to Michigan at the last minute to save money.
Sorry, to clarify, I have seen Your Name (which is gorgeously animated but not as good as I hoped), but not CMBYN.